gas and oil and problematic strategic resource ? the purpose in geopolitics is to understand if...
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Gas and oil and problematicStrategic resource ?The purpose in geopolitics is to understand if countries with oil and gas have the status of power ?
Many countries in the north despite their status of power are under dependence
Power ? Dependence ?
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toolsUnderstanding geopolitics of oil requires an analysis ofImportationsExportationsManagement of flux (how trade is managed)
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New data : importationsImportations : more and more to Asian
countries like India or ChinaNow US and Europe represent 55% of oil
and gas importationsAfter the oil crisis in 1973 two factors
Oil and gas market became strategic market
The use of dollar raises monetary question Huge demandFew resourcesLess investment
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Different structures
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Future of geopoliticsAnalysis from James Kunstler “ The End of oil”
Europe faces issues with Saudi Arabia if a revolutionary regime is set up.
Strategy of limitations to EuropeConsequences: decline of Europe and raise of China or India.
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The end of oil ?Risk of penuryTwo politics for developed countries
Find an other source of energyClose management of oil and gas
resources
For developing countriesNeed the help of developed countries even if
this countries are dependent
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Three main polesThree main poles
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Challenges of oil geopolThree factors have to be taken in
considerationOffer : not that muchDemand : a lot especially in AsiaInvestmentToday geopolitical challenges are differentBetween 2001 and 2005 producer state face
issuesWar in IraqTerrorism in ArabiaSocial issues in VenezuelaPolitical issues in Russia and Nigeria
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And riskRisk in geopolitics because Iran owns 15%
of gas reserve and 12% of oil reserve.Second position after ArabiaStrategic position and roleBut interested to get nuclear power
because fears influence from US and IsraelToday 3,5 millions of barrels every day.If production stops price increases to 80 $
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Weak Saudi ArabiaInstability from ArabiaPolitical regime gets weaker because of
Islamic networks25% of oil resources in the worldIf the production stops : general crisis
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New erasGuinea gulf gets increased productionEstimations : 25% of total resources in the
worldBut face political tensions
High tensions in VenezuelaBut agreement with Russia last week
New eras like Sudan and role of China here.
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Strategy of MNCs ?International companies in a phase with the state
policy ?International companies don’t control all resourcesMost of the time it depends on the State’s policy
(Algeria, Libya)ExxonShellBP AmocoTotalRole in geopolitics ex: Total in Guinea and reaction
from US and China
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Gas Role of Russia : political utilization ?South streamNabucco and Putine’s strategy last weekStrategy about NabuccoAvoiding Russia but disagreement in EU.
Germany Italy France versus Bulgaria Rumania, Turkey