gca: integrated reservoir modelling - gaffney cline...
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gaffney-cline.com
© 2016 Gaffney, Cline & Associates. All rights reserved. Terms and conditions of use: by accepting this document, the recipient agrees that the document together with all information included therein is the confidential and proprietary property of Gaffney, Cline & Associates and includes valuable trade secrets and/or proprietary information of Gaffney, Cline & Associates (collectively "information"). Gaffney, Cline & Associates retains all rights under copyright laws and trade secret laws of the United States of America and other countries. The recipient further agrees that the document may not be distributed, transmitted, copied or reproduced in whole or in part by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise, without the express prior written consent of Gaffney, Cline & Associates, and may not be used directly or indirectly in any way detrimental to Gaffney, Cline & Associates’ interest.
GCA: Integrated Reservoir Modelling
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GCA Advisory Services: A Global Perspective
Buenos Aires Sydney
Dubai
Singapore
London
Houston
GCA: Independent Advisors to the E&P Industry for over 50 years
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GCA Advisory Services: An Integrated Approach
Midstream
• Gas Commercialisation • Transportation • Processing • Storage • Operations
Downstream
• LNG • Refining • Chemicals • Power • Markets
Functions Upstream
• Geology & Geophysics • Reservoir Engineering • Drilling and Completion • Development Planning • Cost and Schedule • Project Execution
• Integration • Economics • Commercial & Financing • Legal, Regulatory & Fiscal • Strategy & Planning • Business Process • Performance Management
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GCA Advisory Services: Integrated Reservoir Modelling
▪ “Integrated Reservoir Modelling” (IRM) is a fully combined view of the reservoir, which typically includes:
▪ 2D & 3D seismic interpretation (e.g. IHS Kingdom Advanced, Petrel Seismic, DUG) ▪ Well log correlation (e.g. Petrel, Kingdom) ▪ Map generation (e.g. IHS EarthPAK, Petrel) ▪ Petrophysics (e.g. Techlog, Geolog) ▪ Rock properties (e.g. Terrastation, IKON RokDoc, Geoscience Workbench) ▪ Static geomodel - probabilistic and geostatisical (e.g. Petrel, Jewel Suite or RMS) ▪ Classical engineering (e.g. IPM-PVTP, PanSystem, Saphir, Harmony, OFM) ▪ Well performance (e.g. Prosper, Amethyste) ▪ Networks (e.g. GAP) ▪ Material balance (e.g. MBAL) ▪ Dynamic (e.g. ECLIPSE, CMG suite (IMEX/GEM/STARS))
▪ GCA uses small, multi-disciplinary teams to fully integrate data
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▪ Integrated Reservoir Modelling provides: – A robust subsurface description – Insight into uncertainty and risk – Improved or protected value
▪ Integrated Reservoir Modelling is necessary for: – Field Development Planning – Project Investment Risk Management
(PIRM) (an integrated GCA service to ensure that projects meet the anticipated return)
– Unitisation and Redetermination, etc. ▪ Integrated Reservoir Modelling
techniques should also be applied to Reserves Audits
GCA Advisory Services: Who needs Integrated Reservoir Modelling?
DUE DILIGENCE FOR
PROJECT FINANCE
UNITISATION
RESERVES & RESOURCES
DEVELOPMENT PLANNING &
OPTIMISATION
IPOs & CPRs
RISK MANAGEMENT AND
SURVEILLANCE
ASSET EVALUATION / ACQUISITION
SUPPORT
STRATEGIC PLANNING & ADVICE
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GCA Advisory Services: Why use GCA for Model-building?
▪ GCA Quality – GCA provides a dedicated project team with specialist skills and tools – The project team has continuous access to GCA’s corporate experience – Ongoing review and oversight of the project
▪ GCA Experience – GCA brings extensive experience in all aspects of modelling - globally and
in every conceivable reservoir type, but recognises that each field or project requires a fresh approach. Experience includes: ▪ Immiscible and miscible floods, ▪ Clastic, carbonate or fractured reservoirs, ▪ Black oil and volatile oil, ▪ Gas and gas-condensate reservoirs, and; ▪ New or mature fields
▪ To assist and/or complement company internal capability
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GCA Advisory Services: IRM to Prepare a Field Development Plan
GCA provided the complete Field Development Plan…
…to well log analysis… …to populating the static model… …to generating structural surfaces … …from interpreting seismic…
…upscaling to construct the dynamic model…
…through to the fully-costed Field Development Plan for
this major field
RESERVOIR
2 kmWell Pad
4 km Step-out
App
rox.
4 k
mR
eser
voir
Dep
th
SALT
with associated numbers of wells, well type and design…
and creating a range of production forecasts…… and surface facilities……
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GCA Advisory Services: Why have an Existing Model Reviewed?
▪ Many clients value GCA’s independent review of their existing models, for the reasons already mentioned and a few others
▪ Why does an independent review/audit help to maximise value? – Oversight and feedback on original Model-Builder, not always the Client ▪ A model is built by the Operator, who may have different priorities to a
Partner or a Finance Company and may not be up-to-date – No “groupthink” ▪ GCA will provide thorough, independent reviews with no fear of
challenging any existing decision-making process – Staged Approach ▪ The independent review can be as big or small as needed
– GCA often uses a staged approach for its projects, with an initial “quick-look” followed by a more detailed enquiry into aspects identified as requiring attention
▪ Preparing for Reserves Audits – These typically include reviewing the existing models – Audit ensures models are in good order before Reserves are due
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GCA Advisory Services: IRM to Audit an Existing Model
Age
Form
atio
n
Sequ
ence Basinal Shelfal
Mio
cene
Olig
ocen
e
Eocene
Paleocene
Pre-Tertiary
Pliocene-Quaternary
Early
Early
Late
Late
Mid
dle
Upper
Lower
Upper
Middle
Lower E
D
C
B1.1
B II
B III
ABien Dong
Dong Nai
Con Son
Bac
h H
oTr
aTa
n
R
R
R
S
R
Basement
Legend:MudSandLimestone
BasementCoalFractures
Reservoir
Source
R
S
GCA provided a Reserve Audit …
…and highlighted a number of inconsistencies in calculating hydrocarbons-in-place
The Client took account of these inconsistencies and re-engaged GCA the following year to confirm the Reserves,
despite the volumetric reduction.
…including regional geology and fault
seal analysis
…well results and reservoir
characterisation
…structure and mapped spill points …fluid contacts and field performance
y = 14.5x - 23730R² = 1
y = 2.212x + 108.2R² = 1
y = 2.714x - 910.1R² = 0.999
y = 2.676x - 816.9R² = 0.999
y = 25.79x - 45362R² = 0.997
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
4,900
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
a2_oila3_oila3_wata4_gasa4_oila4_wata5A_oila5A_wata6_wata6_oila6_gasa8_wata8_oila8Z_wata8Z_oila8Z_gas9109 water9 oil10 oil10 gasLinear (a2_oil)Linear (a3_wat)Linear (a4_gas)Linear (a4_oil)Linear (a4_wat)Linear (a5A_oil)Linear (a5A_wat)Linear (a6_wat)Linear (a6_oil)Linear (a8_wat)Linear (a8Z_wat)Linear (a8Z_gas)Linear (9 water)Linear (9 oil)Linear (10 oil)Linear (10 gas)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
Oil Rate Water Rate
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GCA Advisory Services: For the Entire Investment Lifecycle
Strategic Advisory Integrated Reservoir Management Surface Technical & Commercial Gas Commercialisation
Commercial & Economics Operations & Planning Advisory Risk Management
Strategy Appraisal Concept Selection
Technical Definition
Development Operations Sanction
Growth Strategies
Valuations, Due Diligence
Opportunity Screening
Opportunity Identification
Policies & Processes
Exploration Strategy
Fiscal Terms Cashflows, Economics, Audits.
Gas Sales & Purchase Agreements Commercial Agreements
Markets and Prices
Gas Conversion Options Gas Commercialisation Plans License
Agreements Technology Selection
Execution Planning
Regulatory Compliance
Infrastructure & Logistics
Conceptual Design
Feasibility Studies, CAPEX, OPEX, Development Schedule
Development Plans & Costs Design Audits Budget Review &
Audit
Risk Mitigation FID Baseline Appraisal Baseline
Risk Management
Risk Identification
Decision Support Packages (FDP, PEP, WBS, EIA), TCMs & OCNs Execution Support
Operations Support
JOAs and Partnerships
Resources Estimates & Audits Reservoir Characterisation, Reserves Audits, Unitisation. Production Forecasts
Reservoir Management Dynamic Reservoir Modelling GCoS Assessment Reserves and Resources Estimates
Transaction Support & Integration
Gas Master Plans
PSC Terms
License Rounds
FDP Audits Cost Audits Mature Field Redevelopment
Operations Planning
OPEX Optimisation
LNG Strategy & Markets
Development Strategy
Technology Assessment
Acquisition
CPRs, IPOs and Divestments
Project Surveillance
Performance Monitoring
Market Options
Resource Estimates
Geophysical and Geological Evaluation & Modelling Reservoir Depletion Planning Production Enhancement
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Confidentiality and Disclaimer Statement
This document is confidential and has been prepared for the exclusive use of the Client or parties named herein. It may not be distributed or made available, in whole or in part, to any other company or person without the prior knowledge and written consent of GCA. No person or company other than those for whom it is intended may directly or indirectly rely upon its contents. GCA is acting in an advisory capacity only and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, disclaims all liability for actions or losses derived from any actual or purported reliance on this document (or any other statements or opinions of GCA) by the Client or by any other person or entity.