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  • 8/3/2019 GCC Banking 082011

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    Global Research

    Sector-Banking

    August 2011

    GCC Banking Sector Quarterly 2Q11

    GCC banking profitability increased by 25% in 2Q11

    Kuwait & Oman banks offer a painful negative surprise for 2Q11

    GCC banks witness 15% drop in provisions Qatar & UAE banks steal limelight with stellar top-line growth

    GCC banking profitability increased by 25% 2Q11

    GCC banks under our coverage saw another good quarter with profits rising 28%YoY and4%QoQ. Adjusted for distortions (one-off gains and high provisions booked by ENBD andADCB in 1Q11 & 2Q11 resp.) this figure is reduced to 25%YoY and 4%QoQ highnonetheless. UAE and Qatar stood out in terms of highest profit growth achieved YoYduring the quarter while Oman was the only country that witnessed a decline.

    Kuwait & Oman offer a painful negative surprise for 2Q11

    The results for Kuwait & Oman banks under our coverage for 2Q11 offered a negativesurprise with almost all banks in Kuwait exhibiting results much below our expectations withthe exception of Burgan Bank. CBK offered the highest deviation from our forecast amongKuwaiti banks. Bank Muscat and NBO were the exceptions amongst Omani banks wherethe remaining banks exhibiting a strong negative deviation. While aggregate results of UAEand KSA banks were in line with our expectations (

  • 8/3/2019 GCC Banking 082011

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterl

    August 2011 2

    Name Country Mkt. Cap Current

    US$ mn 1m 3m 12m 2010 a 201 1e 20 10a 2011e 2 010a 2011e 2010a 201 1e 2010a 20 11e Price

    National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 14,889 -8.8% -16.1% -0.2% 13.4 13.0 2.0 1.9 16.0% 14.7% 2.3% 2.3% 3.3% 14.3% 1.04

    Kuwait Finance House Kuwait 8,786 -9.2% -12.7% -9.4% 22.6 23.9 2.0 1.9 9.0% 8.2% 0.9% 0.8% -5.6% 51.6% 0.89

    Com mercial Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 3 ,876 -4.6% -10.8% -4.2% 26.1 24.3 2.3 2.2 8.9% 9.1% 1.1% 1.1% 7.2% 69.6% 0.83

    Burgan Bank Kuwait 2,512 -5.1% -12.3% 37.5% 145.6 15.6 1.6 1.5 1.3% 9.9% 0.1% 1.0% 835.8% 32.7% 0.4

    Al Rajhi Bank KSA 27,995 -5.1% -5.4% -6.6% 15.5 13.4 3.5 3.6 22.9% 26.3% 3.8% 4.0% 15.7% 23.9% 70.0

    SAMBA KSA 10,678 -8.1% -17.4% -22.7% 9.0 8.6 1.6 1.4 18.4% 17.3% 2.4% 2.4% 5.1% 14.8% 44.5

    Riyad Bank KSA 9,638 -2.2% -4.1% -4.4% 12.8 11.7 1.2 1.2 9.8% 10.7% 1.6% 1.7% 9.8% 21.9% 24.1Saudi British Bank KSA 8,298 -4.8% -5.7% -3.0% 16.5 12.9 2.1 1.9 13.3% 15.3% 1.5% 1.9% 28.1% 19.2% 41.5

    Arab National Bank KSA 6,561 -4.9% -11.1% -0.5% 12.9 11.3 1.6 1.6 12.8% 14.0% 1.7% 1.8% 14.3% 21.0% 28.9

    Saudi Investment Bank KSA 2,603 -5.3% -6.1% -1.4% 22.7 10.9 1.2 1.1 5.5% 10.4% 0.8% 1.7% 108.3% 37.5% 17.75

    Banque Saudi Fransi KSA 8,098 -3.7% -10.7% 1.5% 10.8 9.8 1.7 1.6 16.6% 16.8% 2.3% 2.4% 10.6% 16.6% 42.0

    Saudi Hollandi Bank KSA 2,443 -7.0% -8.3% -14.5% 11.6 9.3 1.4 1.3 13.2% 14.5% 1.4% 1.8% 24.0% 18.3% 27.7

    Alinma Bank KSA 3,659 -7.6% -9.9% -16.1% 903.0 64.7 0.9 0.9 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.6% 1295.6% 61.4% 9.15

    Bank AlJazira KSA 1,292 -15.0% -17.2% -3.3% 167.6 23.7 1.0 1.0 0.6% 4.2% 0.1% 0.6% 608.4% 77.3% 16.15

    Bank AlBilad KSA 1,432 -3.5% -6.0% -7.7% 58.2 15.2 1.7 1.6 3.0% 10.8% 0.5% 1.5% 283.0% 58.4% 17.9

    Abu Dhabi Com mercial Bank UAE 4,464 -10.7% 4.3% 76.5% 43.0 5.1 1.1 0.9 2.5% 18.9% 0.2% 1.7% 738.4% -22.1% 2.93

    Emirates NBD UAE 6,037 -7.4% 3.9% 74.8% 9.5 5.3 0.7 0.7 8.1% 13.5% 0.8% 1.4% 79.0% 15.4% 3.99

    First Gulf Bank UAE 6,289 -13.5% -17.2% 21.7% 6.8 6.6 1.2 1.0 18.5% 16.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 22.0% 15.4

    National Bank of Abu Dhabi UAE 8,869 1.8% 1.3% 23.6% 8.8 9.0 1.6 1.4 20.2% 16.9% 1.8% 1.6% -1.4% 25.9% 11.35

    Union National Bank UAE 2,249 -7.5% -6.5% 27.2% 6.1 5.6 0.8 0.8 14.9% 14.3% 1.7% 1.7% 9.1% 25.0% 3.3

    Qatar National Bank Qatar 24,090 -3.9% -4.9% 42.8% 15.4 12.0 3.9 2.3 27.9% 24.2% 2.8% 2.9% 27.7% 29.5% 137.9

    Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar 5,002 1.0% 0.1% 10.6% 11.1 10.9 1.7 1.5 15.1% 14.3% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 10.3% 73.6

    Doha Bank Qatar 3,185 9.4% 3.5% 34.0% 11.0 9.8 2.3 2.0 21.0% 21.5% 2.3% 2.4% 12.5% 10.5% 56.1

    Qatar Is lamic Bank Qatar 5 ,055 -1.1% -3.8% 12.0% 13.8 13.3 2.3 1.8 17.2% 15.3% 2.9% 2.5% 3.9% 15.1% 77.9Al Rayan Bank Oman 4,746 -4.0% -2.3% 64.6% 14.3 12.6 3.4 2.3 23.8% 21.8% 4.1% 3.4% 12.9% 20.5% 23.04

    Bank Muscat Oman 2,695 -11.4% -8.0% -7.9% 10.2 9.3 1.3 1.2 13.5% 13.2% 1.7% 1.9% 9.7% 18.1% 0.6

    National Bank Of Oman Oman 865 -6.4% 0.0% -2.7% 12.3 11.1 1.3 1.2 10.5% 11.0% 1.5% 1.6% 9.9% 15.8% 0.3

    Oman International Bank Oman 624 -5.0% -5.0% 3.7% 13.7 13.3 1.4 1.3 10.3% 10.4% 1.6% 1.5% 2.9% 8.8% 0.25

    Bank Dhofar Om an 1,348 0.0% -12.2% -6.5% 15.6 13.6 2.3 2.0 15.5% 15.7% 2.1% 2.2% 15.1% 10.0% 0.5

    Ahli Bank Oman 529 -5.2% -5.6% 4.7% 14.6 10.1 2.0 1.6 14.3% 17.9% 2.0% 2.4% 45.3% 17.5% 0.25

    Source: GlobalResearch* All figures in local currency unless mentioned otherwise

    Banking Universe Data Set

    Stock Performance P/E P/BV ROE ROA Earnings Growth

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    Global Research - GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 3

    GCC banking profitability witnesses a rise of 25%YoY in 2Q11

    GCC banks under our coverage saw another good quarter with profits rising 28%YoY and 4%QoQ. Adjusted

    for distortions (one-off gains and high provisions booked by ENBD and ADCB in 1Q11 & 2Q11 resp.) this

    figure is reduced to 25%YoY and 4%QoQ high nonetheless. UAE and Qatar stood out in terms of highest

    profit growth achieved YoY during the quarter while Oman was the only country that witnessed a decline.

    Adjusted Banking Profits - 2Q11

    Source: Company Financials, Global Research

    On an aggregate level, GCC banks witnessed a healthy growth in the net interest income (+7%YoY) and

    exhibited a strong rise in non-interest income(+23%YoY). A major contributor to the jump in profits was the

    significant drop in provisions (-15%YoY). Speaking sequentially, while profits were up 4%QoQ, the credit

    goes to a robust jump in NII (+5%QoQ) since non-interest income retreated (-3%QoQ) and provisions rose

    7%QoQ.

    Kuwait & Oman offer a stinging negative surprise for 2Q11

    The results for Kuwait & Oman banks under our coverage for 2Q11 offered a negative surprise with almost

    all banks in Kuwait exhibiting results much below our expectations with the exception of Burgan Bank. CBK

    offered the highest deviation from our forecast among Kuwaiti banks.

    2Q11 Earnings vs Expectations

    Country Analysis Variation

    UAE In line 0.9%

    Kuwait Negative surprise -21.1%

    Oman Negative surprise -38.8%

    Qatar Positive surprise 7.8%KSA In line 4.9%

    Source: Company Financials, Global Research

    In line: 5%, higher than forecast

    Bank Muscat and NBO were the exceptions amongst Omani banks where the remaining banks exhibiting a

    strong negative deviation. While aggregate results of UAE and KSA banks were in line with our expectations

    (

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 4

    2Q11 Earnings vs Expectations

    Bank Analysis Bank Analysis

    Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Positive surprise First Gulf Bank In line

    Ahli Bank of Oman Negative surprise Kuwait Finance House Negative surprise

    Al Rajhi Bank In line National Bank of Abu Dhabi In line

    Al Rayan Bank In line National Bank of Kuwait Negative surprise

    Arab National Bank In line National Bank of Oman Positive surprise

    Bank Al Bilad Positive surprise Oman International Bank Negative surprise

    Bank Dhofar Negative surprise Qatar Islamic Bank Positive surprise

    Bank Muscat Positive surprise Qatar National Bank In line

    Banque Saudi Fransi In line Riyad Bank In line

    Burgan Bank In line Samba Financial Group Negative surprise

    Commercial Bank of Kuwait Negative surprise Saudi Hollandi Bank Positive surprise

    Commercial Bank of Qatar Positive surprise The Saudi British Bank Positive surprise

    Doha Bank Positive surprise The Saudi Investment Bank Positive surprise

    Emirates NBD Negative surprise Union National Bank In line

    Source: Company Financials, Global ResearchIn line: 5%, higher than forecast

    Qatar and UAE banks steal limelight on robust top-line performance

    Albeit banking sectors of all the GCC countries with the exception of KSA (-3%YoY) saw a rise in their NII,

    Qatar, Kuwait and UAE banks saw the highest jump (among peers) in their net interest income in 2Q11, up

    13%YoY, 13%YoY and 12%YoY respectively. Qatars top-line rose on account of robust volumetric growth

    (loans jumped 19%YoY and interest earning assets (IEA) grew 34%YoY) while net interest margin (NIM)

    eroded by 44bps. On a quarterly basis, NII was up 4%QoQ that too on the basis of a 5%QoQ rise in IEA

    while NIM lost 6bps over the previous quarter.

    In Kuwait, volumes grew only 5%YoY but 19bps were added to the NIM as cost of funds saw further

    rationalization. On a quarterly basis, NII improved by 6%QoQ driven largely by a 13bps addition to the NIM

    while IEA remained inched up by 2%.

    As for UAE a joint effort from both the factors led to the mentioned performance with the IEA up 10%YoY

    (net loans up by 3%YoY) and NIM increased by 5bps. On a quarterly basis however, volumes shrank by

    0.5%QoQ exhibiting stagnancy while NIM increased by a heavy 11bps nonetheless UAE banks secured a

    6%QoQ jump in NII. The quarterly increase in NIM can be attributed to excess liquidity in the UAE banking

    system leading to decline in interbank rates which trickled down to lower cost of funds; as per our

    calculations, cost of funds fell more sharply than yield on assets 31bps against 16bps respectively from the

    previous quarter.

    GCC banks witness 15%YoY drop in provisions, 53%YoY down for KSA

    GCC banks (under our coverage) witnessed a 15%YoY drop in provision expense for the quarter under

    review. Provisions were lower for all countries except for Oman and Kuwait provisions taken by Omani

    banks doubled in 2Q11 while that for Kuwait increased by 4%YoY. KSA banks stood out with provisions

    dropping to half of what they used to be while UAE and Qatar saw a decline of 9 10%YoY.

    The substantial rise in provisions for Omani banks was led by its 2 largest banks namely Bank Muscat and

    NBO while the remaining either saw decline in provisions or contributed little to the increase. In Kuwait,

    Burgan Bank was the only bank in our coverage that saw a decline in provisions (that too a massive one)

    only to be overshadowed by significant rise coming from NBK and CBK while that of KFH remained

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 5

    unchanged but high nevertheless. All KSA banks under our coverage saw significant decline in provisions

    with the exception of SHB which posted a 24%YoY increase. The absolute increase in SHBs provisions was

    however only marginal and did portray a declining trend QoQ. UAE based banks saw a mixed trend in terms

    of provisions with most banks exhibiting an increase. The increase in provisioning levels of these was

    however offset by the decrease shown by ENBD and ADCB during the quarter. Noteworthy, albeit ADCB

    saw a decline in provisions YoY, these were still on the higher side perhaps as a smoothening off due to

    one-off windfall gains booked by the bank during the quarter provisions are therefore expected to slide off

    for ADCB going forward, given no new delinquencies are added.

    Provisions in 2Q11

    YoY QoQ

    GCC -15% 7%

    UAE -9% 7%

    Kuwait 4% 29%

    KSA -53% -13%

    Oman 108% -19%

    Qatar -10% -3%

    Source: Company Financials

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    Global Research - GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 5

    Money Supply (M2)

    Saudi Arabia Qatar

    UAE Kuwait

    Oman Bahrain

    Source: Central Banks, Global Research

    -2.3%

    1.3%

    3.0%

    -1.4%

    -0.4%

    1.9%

    5.4%

    -2.1%

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    23

    24

    24

    25

    25

    26

    26

    27

    27

    28

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    KWDbn

    1.5%

    0.6%

    2.0%

    1.2% 1.2%

    2.6%

    6.1%

    2.1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    660

    680

    700

    720

    740

    760

    780

    800

    820

    840

    860

    880

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    AEDbn

    11%

    3%

    13%

    -4%

    7%6%

    2%

    17%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    QARbn

    -0.2%

    5.8%

    1.7%

    6.1%

    -0.1%

    2.6%

    0.6%0.0%

    -1%

    0%

    1%2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    6.0

    6.2

    6.4

    6.66.8

    7.0

    7.2

    7.4

    7.6

    7.8

    8.0

    8.2

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    BHDbn

    1%

    3%

    5%

    -1%

    2%

    5%

    -1%

    1%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7.0

    7.2

    7.4

    7.6

    7.8

    8.0

    8.2

    8.4

    8.6

    8.8

    9.0

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    Apr-11

    OMRbn

    -0.1%

    2.6%

    1.3%

    3.0%

    1.0%

    3.9%

    6.5%

    3.1%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    -

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    SARbn

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 7

    Deposits

    Saudi Arabia Qatar

    UAE Kuwait

    Oman Bahrain

    Source: Central Banks, Global Research

    -0.8%

    2.5%1.6%

    -0.5%-0.6%

    0.8%

    4.9%

    -4.2%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    26

    27

    27

    28

    28

    29

    29

    30

    30

    31

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    KWDbn1.6%

    0.6%

    -1.6%

    1.9%

    2.8%

    3.6%

    5.3%

    1.9%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    850

    900

    950

    1,000

    1,050

    1,100

    1,150

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    AEDbn

    8%

    3%

    10%

    0%

    7%6%

    1%

    14%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    QARbn

    -1%

    4%

    0.2%

    6.2%

    3.6%2.5%

    9.4%

    -3.3%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    BHDbn

    2%3%

    9%

    0%1%

    5%

    1% 1%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    Apr-11

    OMRbn

    -0.6%

    3.2%

    -2.1%

    2.4%

    1.3%

    3.1%

    5.9%

    1.1%

    -3.0%

    -2.0%

    -1.0%

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    7.0%

    800

    850

    900

    950

    1,000

    1,050

    1,100

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    SAR

    bn

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 8

    Loans

    Saudi Arabia Qatar

    UAE Kuwait

    Oman Bahrain

    Source: Central Banks, Global Research

    0.6%

    1.9%

    1.3%

    0.1%

    -0.6%

    0.3%

    0.9%

    0.0%

    -1.0%

    -0.5%

    0.0%

    0.5%

    1.0%

    1.5%

    2.0%

    2.5%

    24.5

    24.6

    24.7

    24.8

    24.9

    25.0

    25.1

    25.2

    25.3

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    KWDbn

    1.2%

    -0.3%

    0.4% 0.4%

    1.2%

    -0.7%

    1.6%

    0.8%

    -1.0%

    -0.5%

    0.0%

    0.5%

    1.0%

    1.5%

    2.0%

    990

    1,000

    1,010

    1,020

    1,030

    1,040

    1,050

    1,060

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    AEDbn

    7%8%

    7%

    2%

    4%

    2%

    0%

    8%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250300

    350

    400

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    QARbn

    -2%

    2%

    -2.1%

    -1.1%

    2.6%

    -3.0%

    0.1% 0.1%

    -4%

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    5.5

    5.6

    5.7

    5.8

    5.9

    6.0

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    B

    HDbn

    -0.3%

    2.2%

    1.7% 1.7%

    3.9%

    1.4%

    2.3%

    0.4%

    -1.0%

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    8.5

    9.0

    9.5

    10.0

    10.5

    11.0

    11.5

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    Apr-

    11

    OM

    Rbn

    2.4%

    -1.6%

    1.6% 2.0% 1.7%

    0.3%

    2.9% 2.7%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    680

    700

    720

    740

    760

    780

    800

    820

    840

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    SARbn

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 9

    Liquidity (Loans/Deposits ratio)Saudi Arabia Qatar

    UAE Kuwait

    Oman Bahrain

    Source: Central Banks, Global Research

    81%

    82%

    83%

    84%

    85%

    86%

    87%

    88%

    89%

    90%

    91%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    Loans/Deposits Deposits Loans

    85%

    90%

    95%

    100%

    105%

    110%

    115%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    Loans/Deposits Deposits Loans

    73%

    74%

    75%

    76%

    77%

    78%

    79%80%

    81%

    82%

    83%

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    Loans/Deposits Deposits Loans

    86%

    88%

    90%

    92%

    94%

    96%

    98%

    100%

    102%

    104%

    106%

    108%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    Loans/Deposits (RHS) Deposits Loans

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    Loans/Deposits Deposits Loans

    96%

    98%

    100%

    102%

    104%

    106%

    108%

    110%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    Apr-11

    Loans/Deposits Deposits Loans

  • 8/3/2019 GCC Banking 082011

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 10

    Interest rates (interbank 1year)

    Saudi Arabia Qatar

    UAE Kuwait

    Oman Bahrain (6-month)

    Source: Central Banks, Global Research

    2.0%

    2.4%

    2.8%

    3.2%

    3.6%

    4.0%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    0.8%

    0.9%

    1.0%

    1.1%

    1.2%

    1.3%

    1.4%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    2.0%

    2.2%

    2.4%

    2.6%

    2.8%

    3.0%

    3.2%

    3.4%

    2Q09

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    1.2%

    1.3%

    1.4%

    1.5%

    1.6%

    1.7%

    1.8%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

    0.00%

    0.02%

    0.04%

    0.06%

    0.08%

    0.10%

    0.12%

    2Q09

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    0.2%

    0.4%

    0.6%

    0.8%

    1.0%

    3Q09

    4Q09

    1Q10

    2Q10

    3Q10

    4Q10

    1Q11

    2Q11

  • 8/3/2019 GCC Banking 082011

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 11

    GCC Banks Comparative Standing 1Q11

    LTD

    Cost Income Ratio

    Provisions to Total Income

    Source: Financial Accounts, & Global Research

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    140%

    160%

    180%

    NBK

    KFH

    CBK

    Burgan

    RJHI

    ANB

    BSF

    RIBL

    SABB

    SAMBA

    SHB

    SIBC

    ALINMA

    BJAZ

    Bilad

    NBAD

    ENBD

    FGB

    UNB

    ADCB

    QNB

    CBQ

    DohaBank

    QIB

    BankMuscat

    NBO

    BankDhofar

    OIB

    AhliBank

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    N

    BK

    KFH

    C

    BK

    Burg

    an

    RJHI

    ANB

    B

    SF

    RIBL

    SABB

    SAMBA

    SHB

    SIBC

    ALINMA

    BJ

    AZ

    Bilad

    NBAD

    ENBD

    FGB

    UNB

    ADCB

    QNB

    CBQ

    DohaBa

    nk

    Q

    IB

    BankMusc

    at

    NBO

    BankDhofar

    O

    IB

    AhliBa

    nk

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    NBK

    KFH

    CBK

    Burgan

    RJHI

    ANB

    BSF

    RIBL

    SABB

    SAMBA

    SHB

    SIBC

    ALINMA

    BJAZ

    Bilad

    NBAD

    ENBD

    FGB

    UNB

    ADCB

    QNB

    CBQ

    DohaBank

    QIB

    BankMuscat

    NBO

    BankDhofar

    OIB

    AhliBank

  • 8/3/2019 GCC Banking 082011

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 12

    GCC Banks Relative Valuation

    Source: Financial Accounts, & Global Research

    P/BV vs ROE

    P/E vs Earnings Growth

    NBK

    KFH

    CBK

    RJHI

    ANB

    BSF

    RIBL

    SABB

    SAMBA

    SHB

    SIBC

    ALINMA

    BJAZ

    Bilad

    NBAD

    ENBD

    FGB

    UNB

    ADCB

    QNB

    CBQ

    Doha Bank

    QIB

    MARK

    Bank Muscat

    NBO

    Bank Dh ofar

    OIB

    Ahli Bank

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

    2012eROE

    2012e P/BV

    NBK

    RJHI

    ANB

    BSF

    RIBL

    SABB

    SAMBA

    SHB

    SIBCNBAD

    ENBD

    FGBUNB

    ADCB

    QNB

    CBQ

    Doha Bank

    QIBMARK

    Bank Muscat NBO

    Bank DhofarOIBAhli Bank

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0

    3-yrEarningsCAGR

    2012e P/E

  • 8/3/2019 GCC Banking 082011

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    Global Research GCC GCC Banking Quarterly

    August 2011 13

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