gcgp strategic economic evidence review · b. test evidence and propositions internally and with...

GCGP STRATEGIC ECONOMICEVIDENCE REVIEW

From the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough LEP

Summary of progress

COMMISSIONED STUDY

Objectives:

To create a ‘world class’ place-based evidence base that can be used to shape the Strategic Economic Plan and local investment priorities

Develop a set of sector and place-based policy choices, aimed at accelerating inclusive and sustainable growth, along with a draft vision

Methodology:

Synthesis of existing datasets and reports

Fill key gaps through primary research

A think piece exploring opportunities from major drivers of change

Assess scenarios of economic growth

(Added to original proposal) In-depth workshops with officer representatives from each local authority during the profiling stage

GCGP STRATEGIC ECONOMIC EVIDENCE REVIEW

OUR CURRENT STRATEGIC ECONOMIC APPROACH

Our spatial approach:

Greater Peterborough as a premier location

Fostering and spreading the Cambridge phenomenon

Addressing challenges of rural areas and releasing the potential of the Market Towns

Our sector approach:

Life Sciences

Food & Drink (Agri-Tech)

Aerospace, Automotive and Defence

Clean-tech

Digital and Creative


ORIGINAL APPROACH TO ACHIEVING A REFRESHED SEP

A. Data gathering and evidence bank to provide economic profiling

B. Test evidence and propositions internally and with Local Growth Strategy Group

C. Develop draft economic vision for GCGP Board

D. Engage widely on draft vision (all i.e. businesses, general public, social, economic, environmental)

E. GCGP develops it’s intervention strategy

Revised above process to include a better process of engagement with Local Authorities; to sense test local priorities and ambitions

Revision - no ‘one SEP to rule them all’, but SEEB to enable prioritisation through a suite of complimentary partner intervention programmes


STRATEGIC ECONOMIC EVIDENCE BASE


Use at different levels:

GCGP profile

Combined Authority profile

District level profiles

…to be used to develop intervention plans,

specific to partners but aligned with shared

evidence base

Economic Commission:

Independent advice

Dynamic tool set:

Economic forecasts (LA level)

Business cluster mapping (Postcode level)

Skills requirements (LA level)

Static / snapshot information

GCGP profile

District level socio-economic profiles

Science and Innovation Audit (GCGP)

Environmental profiles (Character areas)

Think piece on future economy

Test high level propositions:

Generate wealth

Inclusive growth

Businesses supported

Adjust to jobs change

Quality of Life

Differentiate / compete

Prepare for shocks

Interventions (across partners):

Deploy funding

Deploy influence

Revise policies

Map economic realities:

Businesses

Sectors and forecasts

Markets / competition

Labour needs / Skills

Carrying capacity

INTERVENTION LOGIC

1 2


2 3

EXAMPLE DATA FROM

THE ECONOMIC PROFILE


HOW BIG IS THE TOTAL ECONOMY?

GCGP

(as at 2017, 2011 prices)

£36bn GVA

of which £20.7bn is within Combined Authority area and £15.3bn outside

of which nearly half is focused on the cities: Cambridge/South Cams is £9.5bn, and Peterborough is £4.9bn.

GVA growth (+22.6%) significantly outstripped the UK (+16.3%), meaning GCGP area was one of the best performing LEP areas in the country2004-2014


WE CAN MAP SECTOR REPRESENTATION

(HERE ARE GCGP SECTOR JOBS MAPPED AGAINST UK TRENDS)

GCGP STRATEGIC ECONOMIC EVIDENCE REVIEW | 9

WE CAN SHOW SECTOR PAST GROWTH

(HERE ARE GCGP SECTOR JOBS MAPPED AGAINST GVA PER HEAD)


WE CAN LOOK AT A

LOCAL AUTHORITY

LEVEL ANALYSIS

FOR EXAMPLE HERE IS PETERBOROUGH’S

JOBS AND GVA CHANGE 2001-2015:


Farm workers

Farmers

Packers, bottlers, canners, and fillers

Large goods vehicle drivers

Nursery, nurses and assistants

Fork-lift truck drivers

Vehicle technicians, mechanics and

electricians

Metal working production and

maintenance fitters

Plumbers and heating and ventilating engineers

Production managers and directors in manufacturing

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.50 20,000 40,000

Earnings

Lo

cati

on

Qu

oti

en

t

WE CAN INTERROGATE BY OCCUPATIONS OR SKILL

SET AT LOCAL LEVELEXAMPLE HERE OF EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE

TOP OCCUPATIONS


East Cambridgeshire Top 10 occupations by Location Quotient

No. of jobs in 2016

200

400

600

800

1,000

Data: EMSi 2016.1 Occupations, limited to 4-digit SOC occupations with >0.5 per cent of local jobs

WE CAN SEE THE SPATIAL SPREAD

OF SKILLS ATTAINMENT


LEP Boundary

Qualifications: NVQ level 4 and above

more than 50%

40-50%

30-40%

20-30%

10-20%

0-10%

WE CAN SEE SECTOR GVA FORECASTS


AND SEE SECTOR GVA

PER HEAD FORECASTS

(PRODUCTIVITYFORECASTS)


-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Manufacturing - chemicals only

Agriculture

Manufacturing - general

Manufacturing - transport equipment

Manufacturing - electronics

Manufacturing - food

Finance

Manufacturing - metals

Publishing & broadcasting

Telecoms

Utilities

Manufacturing - pharmaceuticals

Mining & quarrying

Land transport

Research & development

Water & air transport

Waste & remediation

Education

Other services

Arts & entertainment

Computer related activity

Wholesale

Real estate

Professional services

Public administration

Employment activities

Retail

Construction

Business services

Accommodation & food services

Health & care

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR JOBS: FORECAST

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH/DECLINE

BY SECTOR 2016-2045

CAMBRIDGE ECONOMETRICS EEFM MODEL, 2016

2016 – 2045 FORECAST JOB CHANGE


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Cle

an

ers

an

d d

om

est

ics

Ca

re w

ork

ers

an

d h

om

e c

are

rs

Oth

er

ad

min

istr

ati

ve

occ

up

ati

on

s

Nu

rse

s

Kit

che

n a

nd

ca

teri

ng

ass

ista

nts

Bo

ok

-ke

ep

ers

, p

ay

roll

Nu

rsin

g a

ux

ilia

rie

s

Se

con

da

ry e

du

cati

on

te

ach

ers

Ba

r st

aff

Wa

ite

rs a

nd

wa

itre

sse

s

Re

cep

tio

nis

ts

Pro

gra

mm

ers

an

d s

oft

wa

re d

eve

lop

me

nt

Cu

sto

me

r se

rvic

e o

ccu

pa

tio

ns

Ch

efs

Ma

na

ge

rs a

nd

est

ate

ma

na

ge

rs

Me

dic

al p

ract

itio

ne

rs

Pro

pe

rty, h

ou

sin

g a

nd

est

ate

ma

na

ge

rs

Re

tail c

ash

iers

an

d c

he

ck-o

ut

op

era

tors

Off

ice

ma

na

ge

rs

Po

sta

l w

ork

ers

, m

ail s

ort

ers

co

uri

ers

WE CAN ALSO IDENTIFY JOB OPENINGS (INCLUDES CHURN) BY OCCUPATION 2016-2022 (EMSI, 2016)

Job

op

en

ing

s 2

01

6-2

02

2


Job

s ch

an

ge

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Pu

blic

ad

min

istr

ati

on

an

d d

efe

nce

;

com

pu

lso

ry s

oci

al se

curi

ty

Ma

nu

fact

uri

ng

Oth

er

serv

ice

act

ivit

ies

Ed

uca

tio

n

Art

s, e

nte

rta

inm

en

t a

nd

re

cre

ati

on

Wh

ole

sale

an

d r

eta

il t

rad

e a

nd

re

pa

ir o

f

mo

tor

ve

hic

les

an

d m

oto

rcycl

es

Min

ing

an

d q

ua

ryin

g

Ele

ctri

city

ga

s, s

tea

m a

nd

air

co

nd

itio

nin

g

sup

ply

Fin

an

cia

l a

nd

in

sura

nce

su

pp

ly

Wa

ter

sup

ply

; se

we

rag

e, w

ast

e

ma

na

ge

me

nt

an

d r

em

ed

iati

on

act

ivit

ies

Re

al e

sta

te a

ctiv

itie

s

Ag

ricu

ltu

re, fo

rest

ry a

nd

fis

hin

g

Co

nst

ruct

ion

Info

rma

tio

n a

nd

co

mm

un

ica

tio

n

Acc

om

mo

da

tio

n a

nd

fo

od

se

rvic

e

act

ivit

ies

Tra

nsp

ort

ati

on

an

d s

tora

ge

Hu

ma

n h

ea

lth

an

d s

oci

al w

ork

act

ivit

ies

Pro

fess

ion

al sc

ien

tifi

c a

nd

te

chn

ica

l

act

ivit

ies

Ad

min

istr

ati

ve

an

d s

up

po

rt s

erv

ice

s

CAN INTERROGATE AT A LOCAL AUTHORITY LEVELCHANGE IN JOBS IN EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE 2003-16 AND 2016-2022 – (EMSI, 2016)

Job openings 2003-2016 2016-22


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Ca

mb

rid

ge

Pe

terb

oro

ug

h

So

uth

Ca

mb

s

Hu

nti

ng

do

nsh

ire

St.

Ed

mu

nd

sbu

ry

Kin

g's

Lyn

n &

W.

No

rfo

lk

No

rth

He

rts

So

uth

Ke

ste

ve

n

Utt

lesf

ord

Fe

nla

nd

Ea

st C

am

bs

So

uth

Ho

lla

nd

Fo

rest

He

ath

Ru

tla

nd

Entry level 1&2 Graduate

WE CAN SEE IMPLICATIONS FOR TYPES OF SKILLS TRAINING:

FORECAST JOB OPENINGS BY SKILLS LEVEL 2016-2022 – (EMSI, 2016)


WE CAN MAP LOCATION OF BUSINESSES

(AND ANY GEOGRAPHIC CLUSTERING OF SECTORS)


Location of businesses within a 20 mile radius of Cambridge by number of employee. All businesses sectors.

Number of employees

1 - 100

100 - 250

250 - 500

500 - 2500

2500 - 60100

Source: Dr Andy Cosh, University of Cambridge.Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017


Location of businesses within a 20 mile radius of Cambridge by number of employee. Life sciences sector.

Number of employees

1 - 100

100 - 250

250 - 500

500 - 2500

2500 - 60100

Source: Dr Andy Cosh, University of Cambridge.Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017

FILTER BY SECTOR/BUSINESS AND OVER TIME

AS AN EXAMPLE, HERE ARE THE LIFE SCIENCE BUSINESSES AROUND CAMBRIDGE

WE HAVE MAPPED COMMUTING FLOWS


Number of commuters travelling to an MSOA

outside of the LEP area

Number of commuters travelling to an MSOA

in the LEP area

AND WHERE THE HIGHEST GVA JOBS ARE LOCATED

THIS SLIDE SHOWS PRODUCTIVITY AVERAGES


GVA per worker, 2015

17,693 – 21,265

21,265 – 24,836

24,836 – 28,407

28,407 – 31,979

31,979 – 35,550

35,550 – 39,121

39,121 – 43,000

MAPPED RENTS OF HOUSING(£ PER DWELLING PER YEAR, 2011)

AND BUSINESS FLOORSPACE RENTS (£ PER M2 PER YEAR, 2011)


Rents, AveOrent

44 - 67

67 - 81

81 - 97

97 - 122

122 - 152

152 - 209

209 - 274

Business floorspace rent

Rents, AveHrent

5,755 – 6,489

6,489 – 7,148

7,148 – 7,911

7,911 – 8,749

8,749 – 9,553

9,553 – 10,746

10,746 – 21,904

Housing rent

CAN SEE A DECLINE IN MORNING PEAK VEHICLE SPEEDS ON

MONITORED LOCALLY MANAGED A ROADS 2007-2015

Source: DfT (2016) Flow weighted vehicle speeds (CGN02) https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/cgn02-flow-

weighted-vehicle-speeds#table-cgn0209


CAN MAP THE STRATEGIC HOUSING(400 DWELLINGS+) AND EMPLOYMENT (10 HECTARES+)

ALLOCATIONS AND PLANNING PERMISSIONS


Total housing target

0 - 5,000

5,000 – 10,000

10,000 - 15,000

15,000 - 20,000

20,000 - 25,000

Number of houses from identified strategic allocation(s)

400 – 2,000

2,000 – 4,000

4,000 – 6,000

6,000 – 8,000

8,000 – 10,000

25,000 +

LEP Boundary

Employment Allocation Zones

Enterprise Zones

GCGP ECONOMIC POSITION AT A GLOBAL,

We are mapping/examining the various levels at which GCGP economies are competing at,

whether global for footloose KI businesses or sub-national in terms of corridors/arcs of economic

activity that extend beyond GCGP area.

NATIONAL AND SUB-NATIONAL LEVEL….


THE WORLD IS CHANGING FAST….

Our Think Piece identified major socio-economic and technological drivers of change:

Infrastructure, manufacturing, business, academia and research are likely to become more decentralised, e.g. zero carbon energy, 3D manufacture and co-working

Potential for significant innovation and value creation from investment in new forms of infrastructure, e.g. automated web connected electric transport powered by renewables, climate resilience and new methods of delivering higher education

Need for different spatial patterns to accommodate economic and physical growth while maintaining high quality environments, e.g. on-demand travel could reduce the need for parking space

Some changes, like decentralised energy and climate change are creating competing pressures for land

Automation and AI will demand people who can work creatively with intelligent machines and master difficult and rapidly changing skills


WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC EVIDENCE BASE TELLING US?

Recent growth is above England average, with employment growth significantly above

A scenario of doubling GVA requires intervention above that of BAU

Congestion data shows a decreasing transport attractiveness of the GCGP area

A quarter of GVA is generated in the Cambridge/ South Cams area, but with high in-commuting already

An eighth of GVA is generated in Peterborough


WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC EVIDENCE BASE TELLING US?

Tight labour supply, and skills challenges

Distinct clusters of businesses / sub-sectors

Concentration of: Agri and Manu-Food (but not greatly expanding in jobs); Research and Development

Concentration of nationally job declining industries: Manu-Electronics / Manu-Chemicals / Manu-Transport

Under represented in Finance and Telecoms (static job growth) and Professional Services (large job growth)

Ranked 2nd for Innovation overall, but 10th for New to Market Innovation


CONSTRAINTS ON INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Mismatch of available and required skills (attraction and retention of labour)

Fragility of the core infrastructure; connectivity and housing

Rising living cost and affordability

Problems obtaining affordable laboratory and incubator space

Availability and suitability of land/premises for SMEs to expand

Retention of investment; scale-up often occurs elsewhere

Lack of awareness by SMEs of what support and capabilities are on offer

Limited access to finance

Increasing cost of energy, particularly, exploiting low carbon market

Creating new business models to exploit and capture value

Declining UK-based supply chains


In response…

GCGP needs a short and long term approach integrated across the SEP, Non-Statutory Spatial Plan, Local Plans and Infrastructure Plans.

Together they should support sector needs and drive economic growth in ways which….

Attracts and retains global KI businesses.

Supports the business ecosystem (finance, networks, support services)

Increases transport infrastructure capacity through public transport and new smart technologies, incl. internet of things.

Makes use of spare capacity in in land, environment and infrastructure.

Delivers new inter- and intra-regional infrastructure where existing capacity can’t be increased or is unfit for purpose, e.g. energy, transport or flood risk.

Improves the environment and maximises ecosystem services.

Reduces inequality and builds resilience to change.

Delivers high skills through business-led identification of demand, quality provision and access to education and training.

Identifies new housing delivery mechanisms, including new market entrants, LA delivery, alternative tenures and off-site manufacture.

1 2


REVISED APPROACH TO ACHIEVING A REFRESHED SEP AND NEXT STEPS

Revision - no ‘one SEP to rule them all’, but use SEEB as a shared evidence base to enable prioritisation through a suite of complimentary partner intervention programmes

Finalise the SEEB

Summarise the key implications of the SEEB

Engage with partners on the evidence base to further test propositions (such as inclusive economic growth; doubling GVA etc)

Develop intervention programmes for those elements that GCGP is in a position to influence with its current funding

Work with partners to align where possible intervention programmes


gcgp strategic economic evidence review · b. test evidence and propositions internally and with...

Documents