GCSE

Geography

Unit Two: Population Change.

Question 1.

Population Change Revision Checklist:

1. Read through your notes and tick off whether you have notes on the topics that have been covered. If not,

you must copy up ASAP.

2. For each topic you must provide a score to reflect how well you think you understand what you’ve

covered. Provide a score of 1-5.

3. Identify the topics you most need to revise – and do this as a priority!

1 = Don’t understand 3 = Understand some 5 = Understand all

Section of Topic Pages: Notes? Understanding?

POPULATION GROWTH:

Global: The exponential rate of world population growth.

DTM: The five different stages of the Demographic Transition Model (birth rates, death rates, natural population change, and the changing population structure).

Causes of population change: The impact of increasing urbanisation, agricultural change, education and the emancipation of women on the rate of population growth.

76/77

STRATEGIES TO MANAGE POPULATION CHANGE:

Implications of population growth: The social, environmental, economic and political implication of population change and the need to achieve sustainable development.

Policies: The effectiveness of population policies adopted in different countries (China & Indonesia) since the 1990’s.

Case study: A case study of China’s one child policy (with a focus on post 1990).

Case study: A case study of Indonesia’s transmigration policy (non-birth control).

78/79/80/81

AGING POPULATIONS:

Population structure: the relationship between the population structure and population decline and the impact on the future economic development.

Issues: The problems associated with an ageing dependent population.

Coping strategies: Government strategies to cope with an ageing population and the incentives suggested for encouraging an increase in a country’s birth rate.

Case study: A case study of the problems and strategies in one EU country with an ageing population.

77/80/81

MIGRATION:

Causes: decision making, push factors, pull factors and the positive & negative impacts experienced by the source and host country.

EU migration: Economic movements within the EU, refugee movements to the EU and the impacts of these movements.

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Population

Revision Checklist and Booklet

Birth rate/death rate/natural increase

Population Pyramids

Demographic Model of Transition

Reasons for higher birth rates in poorer countries

Impact on population growth of

Urbanisation

Agricultural change

Emancipation of women

Education

Reasons why and how a country controls its population size including

China’s One Child Policy (up to present day)

Kerala

Reasons for an ageing population

Problems of an ageing Population

Government strategies to solve the problem of an ageing Population in the EU

Types of Migration

Push-Pull Factors

Advantages and disadvantages to an EU country receiving Migrants

Advantages and disadvantages to a country of emigration

Reasons for refugee movements to the EU

Factors affecting Population

http://www.bbc.co.uk/learningzone/clips/topics/secondary/geography/population_factors_affecting_population.sht

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World Population Growth

The worlds population has grown exponentially (resulting in a J curve). In recent years the

growth rate is starting to slow down. Population is likely to reach 9.2 billion by 2050 and

peak at 10 billion in 2150. This should be followed by a period of zero growth (birth rate is

equal to the death rate so there is no growth or decrease)

Key Population Terms

Birth Rate The number of babies born per 1000 per year

Death Rate The number of deaths per 1000 per year

Natural Increase The birth rate is higher than the death rate

Natural Decrease The death rate is higher than the birth rate

Natural Change The difference between birth rate and death rate expressed as a

percentage

Infant Mortality The number of babies under one that die per 1000 per year

Child Mortality The number of children under five that die per 1000 per year

S curve: growth rates are slowing

down so the shape of the graph is

levelling off into an S curve.

Exponential growth: a pattern

where the growth rate constantly

increases- often shown as a J

curve

Factors affecting population growth

Agricultural change

Mechanisation means fewer children are needed to work the land.

Urbanisation

A major reason for rural to urban migration is to find better

education for children. This means that child labour is less valued

in cities so people have fewer children

Education

Improved education brings improved standards of living- children

then become an economic disadvantage so people have fewer

Emancipation and

Status of Women:

Opportunities for girls increase. Equality increases. Choice over

contraception. Women choose not to have children or to have

them later reducing the number they have. Larger families

rejected. As childcare is expensive child numbers are limited.

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

This model explains birth and death rate patterns across the world and through time.

The UK DTM through Time:

Stage Time Events

1 Before 1760 Little birth control, low life expectancy, Little medicine

2 From 1760 Improvements in medical discoveries following the agricultural

and industrial revolutions meant that the death rate started to

drop. Life expectancy started to increase as hygiene improved

and some diseases started to fall.

3 From 1880 Death rates continue to fall. Economic changes meant that

children cost the family money rather than earn it. The 1870

Education Act meant children up to 12 went to school costing

money and meaning they couldn’t earn money. This made people

have fewer children

4 Post War

Post 1945

Birth and death rates both low. Women working, high levels of

wealth. Growing status of women, Availability of contraception,

longer life expectancy.

The UK has not entered stage 5 as although our death rates

have risen slightly due to an increasing number of older people

our birth rates have not dropped below the death rate as it has

in other countries.

Countries is different stages of the DTM

Stage Country/

Location

Reasons

1 Traditional

rainforest

tribes

Isolated tribes who have little health care so still have high

death rates and high birth rates

2 Afghanistan Very poor country. Very high birth rates but lower death

rates. Many children needed to work.

3 Brazil NIC (Newly Industrialised Country). Catholic country so high

birth rates as contraception not widely used. Rapidly improving

standard of living means that people can see the benefits of

having fewer children so birth rate dropping.

4 USA Low birth rates and death rates due to high levels of economic

development.

5 Germany Women achieving high powered positions at work mean a lower

birth rate plus an ageing population means that Germany’s birth

rate is well below replacement level.

Population Pyramids

Type of bar graph used to show the age and gender structure of a country. We can compare

them to the stages of the DTM. The stage one pyramid has a very wide base, but infant

mortality and child mortality rates are very high so the sides are convex. Only a few remote

tribes now have this shape.

DTM - Stage 2: Afghanistan:

A few more elderly people than in stage one

Sides narrow due to relatively high death rate

Wide base due to high birth rate

DTM - Stage 3: Bangladesh:

Narrowing base shows the decrease in birth rate

Beginning to become straighter sided

Health improvements allow people to live into old age

DTM - Stage 4: USA

Most people die in old age- life expectancy high

Birth rate reducing causing a concave shape

Straighter sides equals a steady low birth rate

DTM - Stage 5: Germany

Increasing proportions of very old people

Middle aged generations much larger than those of their children due to the low birth

rate

When the middle aged population becomes elderly the problem is that the working

population is not large enough to support them

Strategies to deal with rapid population growth

A sustainable population is one whose growth and development means that it does not

threaten the welfare of future generations.

Stage 4 of the DTM is the most sustainable.

China realised in the 1970s that the country was heading for famine unless changes were

made as they had experienced serious famine before. After the last famine there was a

baby boom which meant that the population was then growing too fast.

ONE CHILD POLICY, CHINA

A Case Study of Population Control in an Poor Country

Background:

China is an LEDC with a largely

rural population

70% of water supply does not

meet World Health

Organisation minimum

standards

Rural – urban migration

significant since the 1980’s

Huge pressure on natural

resources and services – 50%

of Chinese are under 25

1979 – Chinese population

exceeded 1 billion – 1 Child

Policy started – population

growth has slowed

2008 – population 1.3 billion

Strategy:

Couples:

Must not marry until late 20’s

Must not have more than 1 Child

Must be sterilised after the first pregnancy

or abort future pregnancies

Would receive a 5-10% salary increase for

limiting the family to 1 child

Would have priority housing, pension, family

benefits – free education for child

Rigorously enforced amongst the Han

Chinese in cities – rural areas & minority

groups exempted

Couples not following the rules:

10% salary cut

Fine imposed so large it would bankrupt

families

Family have to pay for education of any

children & all health costs for the family

‘Granny Police’: older women of the community

entrusted to keep everyone in line.

Positive Effects:

Population growth has slowed

(estimated that 400 million

fewer people have been born)

Negative Effects:

The elderly tend to be looked after by sons

– decline in number of girls being born due to

abortions – in 2000, 90% of abortions were

Estimated that population was

reduced by 300 million in first

20 years

Standards of living have

improved

girls

2009 – national average of 114 males to

every 100 females

In time there will be a rise in the relative

number of elderly

Controversy reigns about this policy as:

Women forced to have very late abortions (9th month)

Women under great pressure from families and granny policy

Local officials had power over private lives

Sons preferred so large incidences of girls in orphanages (15 million orphans as a

result of this policy) and female infanticide

Children known as ‘Little Emperors’ as they have the reputation of being over indulged.

Changes in 1990s and 2000s

Young couples who are both only children are allowed 2 children

If you work for the government you are still only allowed one child to set an example

The attitude towards girls has improved now that women are doing better in the

workplace.

Due to increased wealth more people are willing to break the rules and pay all the

extras that go with more than one child

Not all young men will be able to marry as there are now 60 million more young men

than women.

Policy will remain as there are still 1 million more births than deaths every 5 weeks

KERALA, INDIA

A Case Study of a poor country (an alternative to the One Child Policy in China)

Background:

India was the first LEDC to

launch a national family planning

strategy in 1952 – included both

contraception & social changes

Kerala, SW India is a socialist

state.

Population 32 million – 3% of

India’s total population

It is one of the few regions to

have passed through stage 4 of

the Demographic Transition

Model

It’s decreased birth rate is the

most dramatic in India

Its GDP higher than most of

India

Kerala’s Birth control strategy

started in 1960’s

Strategy:

Equality between boys & girls in education

Right to literacy Programme - adult literacy

classes in towns & villages

Stressing the benefits of smaller families

Reducing infant mortality = people don’t

need so many children

Vaccination programmes & better health

care

Free contraception & advice

Encouraging higher age marriage

Allowing maternity leave for first 2 babies

only

Extra retirement benefits for those with

small families

Following a land reform programme

Positive Effects:

Population growth has slowed

More girls go to university than

boys

Each family now has 8 hectares

of land – enough to be self-

sufficient – larger families

would endanger this

Adult literacy in Kerala is

89.9% compared to 58% in the

rest of India

Life expectancy in Kerala is 73

years compared to 64% in the

rest of the country

Negative Effects:

Preference for sons reflected in higher

female infant mortality rates

THE AGEING EU POPULATION

Background:

In countries such as the UK a baby boom (1945 -1964) followed the end of the war

Europe has developed rapidly since World War 2 - improved standards of living,

better diet & health care = a declining birth rate & an ageing population – 2010 – 20%

UK population over 65

Issues:

1.5 babies born per EU woman – 2.1

needed for sustainable population

An increasing dependency ratio caused

by an increase in the number of people

dependent on the working (taxpaying)

population

Increasing life expectancy – UK is

80years

Health care – more illness occurs in old

age

Social services – the elderly require

care homes, day care centres and home

help services

The pension crisis – as the proportion

of the working population decreases,

taxes must rise to pay the pensions bill

A decline in the number of skilled

workers in a country

Increased standards of living have led

to unhealthy lifestyle choices –

pressure on the health service in later

life

Solutions:

To encourage women to have more

children through financial rewards /

better childcare support

Encourage healthy lifestyles thereby

preventing some illnesses associated

with ageing = reduced health care

costs

Increase the age of retirement &

encourage businesses to harness the

skills & experience of their older

workforce

Force people to take out private

pensions

Encourage young skilled migrants to

supplement the workforce

Raise taxes to pay for social services /

health care and pensions

Opportunities:

Retired people between 65 & 75 are big

spenders – relatively wealthy, fit and have

lots of leisure time

Many recently retired do voluntary

work

They are highly experienced in their

fields of work

France – a case study:

Strategy – strong pro-natal policy -

Couples are given a range of incentives:

1. 3 years parental leave for mothers or

fathers

2. full-time schooling starts at the age of

3

3. day care for younger children is

subsidised by he government

Provide free child care for

grandchildren

4. the more children a woman has, the

earlier she is allowed to retire

Not completely successful – birth rates have

decreased from 18 / 1000 in 1960 to

14.4/1000 in 2010

Sample Answer

The population of the EU is ageing. Discuss how this is contributing to making the EU

population unsustainable.

(6marks)

The current trend in the EU population is unsustainable for a number of reasons.

Currently, in the EU 1.5 babies are born per woman, but 2.1 are needed for a sustainable

population. As a result, many EU countries are experiencing a decline in population. What

is more, the end of the Second World War saw a baby boom which lasted until 1964.

Europe as a whole developed rapidly in this period. Rising living standards have led to

improved standards of living, the emancipation of women, smaller families, but most

tellingly of all, an ageing population. This ageing population and the decline in the birth rate

over the past few decades has meant that the dependency ratio has increased. This is in

part the result of increased life expectancy (the UK is currently 80years) and partly

because the percentage of the working population supporting them has decreased. This has

a number of consequences: firstly, in the UK we face a pensions crisis as the proportion of

the working population decreases, taxes must rise to pay the pensions bill; secondly, one

result of increased standards of living is that we make unhealthy lifestyle choices which

puts increasing pressure on the health service as we age; thirdly, as we develop,

communities and family ties break down meaning that more and more old people are reliant

on social services for their needs. Clearly, all this has to be funded by the taxpayer. This

means that the birth rate needs to be sufficient to replace retiring workers or we need to

encourage immigration to fill the short fall. In summary, the current relationship between

birth rates and increasing life expectancy is unsustainable and governments need to

address this situation.

Migration

http://www.bbc.co.uk/learningzone/clips/topics/secondary/geography/population_migration.shtml

Push Factors Push factors are the negative aspects of a place that encourage

people to move away such as failing harvests or lack of work

Pull Factors These are the attractions and opportunities of a place that

encourage people to move there such as better educational

opportunities.

Migration The movement of people from one permanent home to another with

the intention of staying at least a year.

National Migration Within a country

International Migration Between countries

Destination The country where a migrant settles

Country of Origin The country where a migrants starts

Immigrant Someone entering a new country

Economic Migrant Someone trying to improve their standard of living who moves

voluntarily

Refugee These are people who are at risk if they stay in their own country

and they become refugees when they settle in another country

The Impacts of Migration

Positive impact on host country

(destination)

Negative impact on host country

migration brings labour and skills

cultural mixing in both society and

schools can be a positive thing

migrants willing to work longer hours

and frequently for less pay

Migrants pay tax

Money earned by migrants often goes

back to country of origin

Demand for housing greater than

supply can cause resentment amongst

UK citizens when housing goes to

migrants

Some argue that migrants take jobs

that UK population could have done

Some work in the informal economy for

cash in hand and therefore do not

contribute to taxes

Positive impact on country of origin Negative impact on country of origin

Money sent back home from those Brain drain as young, educated

working abroad

Reduces pressure on jobs

Migrants develop new skills to bring

home

population are the most likely to leave

to improve their lives abroad

Lose people of working age

Males migrate causing social effects on

families

Large elderly population left behind

Case Study: Migration and the EU

Migration within the EU

(European Union)

Since Poland and other eastern

European countries joined the

EU in 2004 many people have

moved temporarily or

permanently to the UK

The UK received 600,000

Eastern European migrants

between 2004-2006

Poles earn on average 5 times

as much as they would at home.

Migration from outside the EU

Europe receives 2 million migrants per

year

European population is changing more in

structure because of migration than by

changes in birth and death rates

8.6% EU population is foreign born (USA:

10.3% and Australia: 25%)

Africa and Asia the major sources of

migration

UN (United Nations) predict immigration

into the EU will increase by 40% in 40

years

Not everyone happy with such influxes

but Europe needs workers due to falling

birth rate and the resulting lack of

workers

Often migrants can take jobs in highly

skilled temporary areas such as

teaching, nursing and high tech computer

jobs which are experiencing shortages

About 20% immigrants are graduates

Refugee movements to the EU

One third of EU immigrants

claim to be asylum seekers

Not all of migrants are genuine

asylum seekers but believe it

gives them a better chance of

staying.

This has caused some

resentment amongst the rest of

the population

EU has been criticised by UN

for not taking enough genuine

asylum seekers

The wars in Iraq and

Afghanistan provide most asylum

claims. 2 million Iraqis have

already left the country.

Christians are particularly

persecuted

Sweden has taken most Iraqis,

70,000. Half of those coming

into the EU.

Netherlands, Germany, Greece,

Belgium and the UK have given

homes to the rest

You might get a chloropleth map like this in the

exam and be asked to describe the patterns it

shows