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JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH

ACTIVITIES FOR 2011

CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada

Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada

1. Summary of highlights

1) 6 Apr 2011: A Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (RDPA) based on the Canadian

Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system became operational. It is intended to provide the best possible estimates of precipitation accumulation for grid points on a geographical domain.

2) 9 Jun 2011: A coupled forecast system for the Gulf of ST. Lawrence became the first operational fully

interactive atmosphere-ocean-ice forecasting system to run at Environment Canada.

The forecast strategy includes three main parts: 1) An oceanic pseudo-analysis cycle;2) A superimposed sea ice analysis based on direct insertion of Radarsat analysis;3) A coupled forecast cycle

3) 12 Jul 2011: Improvements to the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) (ver. 2.1.0) to reduce

the tropical cyclone false alarm rate in the global forecasts were implemented.

Main changes to the global GEM model include adjustments to its deep convection scheme and to thermal roughness length over water in the tropical areas in the area that extends from 25 south to 25 north latitude.

4) 17 Aug 2011: Major improvements of the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (ver. 2.0.2) were

implemented.

Summary of changes to both the assimilation and forecast systems:

o The GEM model now uses staggered levels;o The horizontal grid was changed from a regular lat-lon grid to a gaussian type grid;o Model top was lifted;o A new radiative scheme was introduced;o Two deep convection schemes were dropped;o A more recent climatology of stratospheric ozone and a scheme to simulate

methane oxydation were adopted

Changes to the assimilation system's Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) process:

o The number members went from 96 to 192;o Additional data are now assimilated in the stratosphere (AMSU-A and GPS-ro)

Changes to the EPS forecast system component: o The horizontal model resolution increased from 100 km to 66 km and the model

time step was reduced from 45 minutes to 30 minutes;o The number of vertical levels was increased from 28 to 40;o The schemes for the stochastic perturbation of the physical tendencies and the

stochastic kinetic energy backscatter were adjusted;o Changes to the physics include the implicit computation of surface fluxes and the

introduction of a latitudinal ramp in the triggering of the deep convection scheme, which reduces cyclonic activity in the tropics

5) 30 Aug 2011: GPSRO data from two new GPS satellite receivers were added to the global, regional and

ensemble data assimilation systems. This change now provides more information to contribute to the initial conditions for numerical weather forecasting and also increases the reliability of access to GPSRO data.

6) 22 Sep 2011: The Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS 1.0.0) became operational. At the start,

products from the REPS were only available internally to Environment Canada but plans were underway to make these products available to external users.

Improvements to the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS 2.2.0):o The West, East, and Maritimes prediction domains were enlarged and a new

domain over the Arctic archipelago was added;o The geophysical fields were updated;o Introduction of a new radiative transfer scheme (Li & Barker);o The double-moment version of Milbrandt & Yau microphysics scheme was updatedo Addition of a new prediction domain over the Arctic archipelago;o A new verification system specific to the HRDPS has developed and implemented

to operationso The GRIB2 format files model output are now available to the public

7) 5 Oct. 2011: The Scribe nowcasting system status changed from experimental to operational and it is

now referred as version 1.0. The operational version contains some improvements over the experimental one.

8) 25 Oct 2011: Improvements to the Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS –

GEM-MACH15 v1.4.4):o An update to more recent dynamics and physics libraries at CMC;o An update to the hourly anthropogenic and biogenic emissions files by using more

recent inventories;o Modifications made near the top (lid) of the model in order to avoid potential

numerical problems

9) 16 Nov 2011: Upgrade to the global and regional data assimilation systems by incorporating additional

satellite data and by introducing a higher quality analysis of the sea surface temperature.For both global and regional data assimilation systems, we now incorporate significantly more satellite data utilizing more infrared, microwave, water vapour, and radiance channels/data. Assimilation changes include:

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o Moisture observations measured from properly equipped aircraft (AMDAR);o A new satellite data bias correction scheme will replace the current one;o A modified version of the RTTOV radiative transfer code will be used for satellite

radiance data;o A new sea surface temperature analysis on a grid of 0.20 degrees resolution

The amount of observational data assimilated in the global data assimilation system increased from about 1.9 million to 4.2 million pieces of information per day. With these changes the GDPS system is now version 2.2.0.

10) 1 Dec 2011: A newly developed global coupled seasonal prediction system for forecasting monthly to

multi-seasonal climate conditions has been implemented in operation. This new system called CanSIPS, for Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System, can skilfully predict the ENSO phenomenon (El Niño-La Niña/Southern Oscillation) and its influence on the climate up to a year in advance. CanSIPS replaces both the uncoupled (atmosphere only) prediction system previously used for making forecasts of four month lead times and the CCA statistical prediction system previously used for forecasts of lead times longer than four months.

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2. Equipment in use Supercomputer platform

IBM P Series 575+, 4528 cores, 17TB of main memory, 60TB of high-performance GPFS parallel disk capacity. Operating system: AIX 5.3. An IBM p755 supercomputer comprised of 2 clusters of 8192 Power7 cores and 450TB of storage each was delivered in October and were under installation during the following months.

Front-end platformTwo debian Linux clusters with 82 nodes (PowerEdge 1950) total, each node having 8 processors and 16 GB of memory each. It uses about 100 TB of disk space (SAS and SATA) through Infiniband.

8 IBM System x3650 M2 I/O servers, each with 16 processors and 24 GB of memory. There is 1 PB worth of SAS and SATA disks attached over FC shared via GPFS/CNFS.

Summary of equipment in use at the Canadian Meteorological Centre

Computer Memory (GB)

Disk Space

IBM P Series 775, 16384 cores 65536 900TB

IBM P Series 575+, 4528 cores 17000 60000 GB

1 SGI ALTIX 350, 16 cpu 32 1.2 PB

32 PowerEdge 1950, 1300 cpu 1968 100 TB

8 IBM System x3650 M2 I/O servers, 128 cpu

192 1.0 PB

Mass storage systemThe Meteorological Service of Canada has been using a robotized storage/archive facility for Environment Canada (operated out of CMC Dorval) since 1994 in order to store and secure critical services and departmental data including: Numerical Weather Prediction data (essential to improve forecasts); Climate change scenarios (including IPCC run results), the Climate Archive Database; computer backups, logs and ECONET router and firewall logs/data (essential in the investigation of security incidents, performance statistics, etc).

The system comprises a SGI Altix 350 with 16 Itanium processors, 32GB of internal memory and 1.2 PB of high-performance disks. The two tape libraries are Quantum Scalar i6000 with 4000 LTO tape slots and 12 LTO-5 drives each. The hierarchical software manager is StorNext. As of December 31 2011, 8.5 PB of data was stored (primary copy).

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3. Data and products from GTS in use3.1 DataThe following types of observations are presently used at the Centre. The numbers indicate the typical amount of data (reports or pixels) received during a 24-hour period:

SYNOP/SHIP 64,300

TEMP (500 hPa GZ) 1,285

TEMP/PILOT (300 hPa UV) 1,335

DRIFTER/BUOYS 38,800

AIREP/ADS 12,500

AMV’s (BUFR) 2,100,000

MCSST (US Navy) 4,200,000

SA/METAR 450,000

AMDAR/ACARS 250,000

PIREP 12501

PROFILER 600

GEO radiances 2, 800,0002

ATOVS (AMSU-A) 1,990,0003

ATOVS (AMSU-B/MHS) 18,100,0003

SSM/I 1,400,0004

SSM/IS 8,160,0005

A/ATSR 350,0006

AIRS (AQUA) 320,000

IASI (Metop-2) 320,000

AScat 965,000

GPS-RO 1,7507

3.2 ProductsGRIB ECMF

GRIB KWBC

GRIB EGRR

FDCN KWBC

FDUS KWBC

1 Not assimilated2 Clear sky radiances for 5 GEO satellites, only METEOSAT assimilated in early 2012? Locally processed GOES imagery, clear sky radiances, only GOES-W presently3 Four NOAA satellites are assimilated, plus AMSUA on AQUA, and Metop-2; obtained by ftp 4 A third of these are used for ice analyses; only F15 available; obtained by ftp5 Three DMSP satellites (F16, F17, F18); only 6F16 assimilated; obtained by ftp6 This instrument is on ENVISAT; obtained by ftp, used for SST analyses7 Data from COSMIC, GRACE-A, TERRASAR-X and METOP-2GRAS

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U.S. Difax products

Significant weather forecasts

Winds/Temperature forecasts for various flight levels

4. Forecasting system4.1 System Run Schedule and forecast ranges

Assimilation and final analysis run schedule(all times in UTC)

Description Name Time Remarks

Global assimilation G2 00, 06, 12, 18 Details section 4.2.1.1Regional assimilation R2 00, 06, 12, 18 Details section 4.3.1.1Regional final analysis R3 00, 12 Cut-off: T+7:00.Global ensemble assimilation

E2 00, 06, 12, 18 Details section 4.2.5.1

Forecast run schedule(all times in UTC)

Description Name Time Forecast period Remarks

Global G1 00, 12 240 hours at 00360 hours at 00 on Sundays144 hours at 12

Details section 4.2.2.1All products available at T+5:00.

Regional R1 00, 12,06,18

48 hours54 hours

Details section 4.3.1.1All products available at T+3:30.

Localhigh resolution

WH,EH

AH, MH

12

06

24 hours

24 hours

Details section 4.3.2.2(experimental GEM-LAM 2.5 km)

Global ensemble

E1 00, 12 16 days Details section 4.2.5.1

Air quality GM 00, 12 48 hours Details section 4.5.2.1Monthly M1 00 One month Details section 4.6.1

Produced at the beginning and middle of every month.

Seasonal M1 00 Three/four months Details section 4.7.1Produced at the beginning of every month.

4.2 Medium range forecasting systems (4-10 days)4.2.1 Data assimilation and objective analysis4.2.1.1 In operation

Method A 4D-VAR multivariate analysis, at the appropriate time, to the 9-hour forecast of a 80-level 0.33 uniform resolution GEM (Charron et al., 2011). The incremental approach is used for 4D-Var. (Gauthier et al., 1999). The GEM tangent-linear model and its adjoint with

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simplified physics are used to propagate the analysis increments and the gradient of the cost function over the assimilation window. The length of the assimilation window is 6 hours with a time step of 45 min.

Variables T, Ps, U, V and log q (specific humidity).

Levels 80 hybrid levels of GEM model.

Domain Global

Grid 0.33o resolution for the outer loops and 1.5o for inner loops (T108).

Simplified Physics

Vertical diffusion

Subgrid scale orographic effects8

Large-scale precipitation

Deep moist convection

Frequency Every 6 hours using data ±3 hours from 00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC and 18 UTC.

Cut-off time 3 hours for forecast runs. 9 hours for final analyses at 00/12 UTC and 6 hours at 06/18 UTC.

Processing time

110 minutes plus 5 minutes for trial field model integration on the IBM P5.

Data used TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP/SHIP, AWV’s, ATOVS level 1b (AMSU-A; AMSU-B/MHS), BUOY/DRIFTER, PROFILER, AIRS, IASI, GPS-RO, AScat, AIREP/AMDAR/ACARS/ADS, SSM/IS and clear sky radiance data from geostationary imagers.

4.2.1.2 Research performed in this field

Ensemble-Variational (En-Var) data assimilationBuilding on previous research in which an intercomparison of the global 4D-Var and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation systems was conducted (Buehner et al 2010a,b), new approaches for using EnKF ensemble members to specify the background-error covariances in the variational data assimilation system were examined. A new approach of efficiently applying spectral and spatial localization to ensemble covariances was examined and showed some potential (Buehner, 2011). Recently, the focus of this research is on using the 4D ensemble covariances obtained from the EnKF to perform a 4D deterministic analysis with the variational data assimilation system. This has been named the “Ensemble-Variational” or “En-Var” approach. By making full use of the already available EnKF ensemble members, the En-Var approach avoids the computational and development costs associated with the tangent-linear/adjoint versions of the forecast model. En-Var experiments, in which the ensemble covariances are blended with the stationary covariances currently used operationally, are currently being performed as a possible replacement for 4D-Var in the global deterministic prediction system.

8 Used in second outer loop only

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GPS-ROResearch and Development on the assimilation of GPS radio-occultation observations from COSMIC (constellation of 6 satellites), METOP GRAS and GRACE was implemented operationally in 2009. These data have shown significant impact at all levels, in both summer and winter (Aparicio and Deblonde, 2008; Aparicio et al. 2009). GPS-RO data are assimilated as an absolutely calibrated source, i.e. without bias correction. It has been found that this requires a demanding level of accuracy to ensure compatibility with other observations, particularly radiosondes (Aparicio et al, 2009; Aparicio and Laroche, 2011).The volume of COSMIC data has slowly but persistently decreased as the constellation ages. Beginning in On October 2010, additional GPS-RO data were received, from satellites TERRASAR-X, SAC-C and C/NOFS, which were added to monitoring. TERRASAR-X and SAC-C were found ready for assimilation, and were included in the assimilated data in Aug 2011. They compensate for the reduction of COSMIC data due to ageing. C/NOFS contains only tropical data and the profiles do not reach the lower troposphere. C/NOFS radio occultation data was otherwise found to be comparable to existing tropical data from other missions. Due to the different distribution, it was decided that further research is required to properly benefit from this source.

Assimilation of additional dataA major upgrade to the global system, in terms of new data types, was implemented in the fall of 2011.This included 62 IASI channels, 7 SSMI/S channels and the assimilation of one water vapour channel for three more geostationary satellites. The bias correction system is now unified for all radiances. RTTOV is used for all radiances (MSCFAST was used for GOES before).The thinning was reduced to 150 km. The number of AIRS channels remained 87 although the plan was to assimilate 124 channels. Similarly, it was planned to assimilate 150 IASI channels.

In pre-implementation tests, the temperature at the model top increased dramatically at high latitudes. The problem was traced back to inconsistency between forcings from infrared and microwave radiances. It was shown that inconsistency can be removed by using the same bias correction air mass predictors for all radiances. For security, the solution adopted for implementation was to reduce the background error to zero at the model top, which implies no contribution from all data types at that level. However, the bias correction was not revised. It is planned to implement the revision of the bias correction (four air mass predictors for infrared radiances, same as microwave) and to assimilate the additional channels previously selected. This will be done with the assimilation of CrIS hyperspectral IR radiances (channel selection similar to that of AIRS). Another activity is the revision of the observation error for all radiances. The observation error will be set as a function of the observed minus background standard deviation.

Model validation using AIRS radiancesAs part of the International Polar Year (IPY), special funding allowed a study on validation of cloud parameters (cloud height and amount) using AIRS radiances (Garand et al, 2011). A validation methodology was developed to assist modellers in the development of physical parameterizations for cloud and radiation. Following that work, the selection of CO2 channels for cloud height determination was revised along with a minor revision of quality control for infrared radiances.

Stratospheric extension of the operational weather forecast modelThe operational forecast model domain was extended to include the entire stratosphere in 2009. This new system resulted in a considerable improvement in forecast skill not only in the stratosphere, but also in the troposphere (Charron et al. 2011). Therefore, research was done to understand the reasons for the improvement in forecast skill. The model lid height explained almost all of the improvement in the stratosphere. The extra observations in the upper stratosphere (AMSU ch. 11-14, and GPS-RO from 30-40 km) were beneficial in the winter but not in the summer. Most of the improvement in forecast skill could be obtained without these extra observations. The impact on tropospheric forecast skill was found to be partly (25%) due to the new radiation scheme, but mostly due to the improved initial conditions. Since AMSU ch. 5-8 impact the stratosphere, an improved stratospheric background state could improve the tropospheric

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analyses since these channels have peak sensitivity in the mid to upper troposphere. Reszka and Polavarapu (2011) examined the value of flow-dependent background constraints (Charney balance and the quasi-geostrophic omega equation) concluding that the small improvements in forecast skill may not be justified by the extra expense and by the approximations needed for their implementation.

Land surface initial conditionsA first version of the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) has been completed and is currently being tested to improve land surface initial conditions for the medium-range forecasting systems (deterministic and ensemble). Surface-based data includes observations of screen-level air temperature and humidity, and snow depth. Space-based data includes L-band brightness temperatures from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite for soil moisture, and snow water equivalent retrievals from AMSR-E microwave emissions.

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4.2.2 Model4.2.2.1 In operation

This model is referred to as the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS).

Initialization Diabatic Digital Filter (Fillion et al., 1995).Formulation Hydrostatic primitive equations.Domain Global.Numerical technique Finite differences: Arakawa C grid in the horizontal and A grid in the vertical

(Côté, 1997).Grid Uniform 800 × 600 latitude-longitude horizontal grid. Horizontal resolution is

0.45o in longitude and 0.33o in latitude.Levels 80 hybrid levels. Model lid at 0.1 hPa.Time integration Implicit, semi-Lagrangian (3-D), 2 time-level, 900 seconds per time step

(Côté et al., 1998a and 1998b).Independent variables x, y, and time.Prognostic variables E-W and N-S winds, temperature, specific humidity and logarithm of

surface pressure, liquid water content, Turbulent kinetic energy (TKE).Derived variables MSL pressure, relative humidity, QPF, precipitation rate, omega, cloud

amount, boundary layer height and many others.Geophysical variables:

derived from analyses at initial time, predictive

derived from climatology at initial time, predictive

derived from analyses, fixed in time

derived from climatology, fixed in time

Surface and deep soil temperatures, surface and deep soil moisture ISBA scheme (Noilhan and Planton, 1989; Bélair et al. 2003a, b); snow depth, snow albedo, snow density.

Sea ice thickness

Sea surface temperature, ice cover

Surface roughness length (except over water), subgrid-scale orographic parameters for gravity wave drag and low-level blocking, vegetation characteristics, soil thermal and hydraulic coefficients, glaciers fraction.

Horizontal diffusion Del-6 on momentum variables only, except del-2 applied on temperature and momentum variables at the lid (top 6 levels) of the model.

Orography Extracted from USGS, data bases using in house software.Orographic gravity wave drag Parameterized (McFarlane, 1987; McFarlane et al., 1987).Non-orographic gravity wave drag

Parameterized ( Hines, 1997a,b)

Low level blocking Parameterized (Lott and Miller, 1997; Zadra et al., 2003).Radiation Solar and infrared using a correlated-k distribution (CKD) (Li and Barker,

2005)Surface scheme Mosaic approach with 4 types: land, water, sea ice and glacier (Bélair et al.,

2003a and 2003b).Surface roughness length over water

Charnock formulation except constant in the Tropics.

Turbulent mixing (vertical diffusion).

Based on turbulent kinetic energy (Benoît et al., 1989; Delage, 1988a and 1988b) with mixing length from Bougeault-Lacarrère (1989; see also Bélair et al, 1999) except near the surface and in the upper-troposphere.

Shallow convection 1) Turbulent fluxes in partially saturated air (Girard, personal communication).2) Kuo Transient scheme (Bélair et al., 2005)

Stable precipitation Sundqvist scheme (Sundqvist et al., 1989; Pudykiewicz et al., 1992. For QPF evaluations see Bélair et al., 2009)

Deep convection Kain & Fritsch scheme. (Kain and Fritsch, 1990 and 1993)

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An upgrade to the global medium-range GEM model is planned for winter 2013. The main new elements of this model upgrade are: a reduction in horizontal grid spacing from 33 km to 25 km, the use of the Charney-Phillips vertical staggering, improvements to the planetary boundary layer scheme with the inclusion of a hysteresis effect, a revised orographic blocking scheme, implicit treatment of surface fluxes, and a new climatology of sea-ice thickness.

R&D work presently underway:

Dynamical coreso Advection scheme

The Semi-Lagrangian Inherently Conserving and Efficient (SLICE) approach is being studied for tracer transport (Mahidjiba et al., 2008)

o Vertical discretizationAfter extensive testing, a formulation of vertical staggering is being introduced in the model. It is a Charney-Phillips arrangement of the variables with an extension for a non-hydrostatic formulation; both the global and nested versions of the model are developed simultaneously. Further improvements are being tested, especially for the treatment of the semi-Lagrangian advection. The position of the vertical levels, especially near the surface, is also being revisited. An improved upper boundary condition has been introduced.

o Horizontal discretizations.

As a means to avoid the so-called pole problem that plague lat-lon grid-point global models, research on two alternative grid discretizations has been performed.

1) Yin-Yang gridThe first type of grid is a Yin-Yang grid. Tests with the full physics package are very satisfying when compared against the lat-lon and the spectral approaches. This new model grid is expected to scale well up to tens of thousands of processor cores. Work on optimization is being performed. It is expected that the Yin-Yang grid for global applications will become operational in 2013.2) Icosahedral gridAn approach based on finite volume and an icosahedral grid is being evaluated. This approach uses a conservative Eulerian advection. The extension to 3D is being developed by the use of a quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinate. The scalability of this approach is expected to be even better than the Yin-Yang model.

o Solver

The use of an iterative solver is being explored for the GEM model.

Physical parameterizationso Improvements to the land surface processes, with improved surface fields (orography, subgrid-scale

parameters, land use / land cover, soil texture, and albedo) and surface processes (essentially related to a better coupling between the surface and the atmosphere, including the use of a distributed drag scheme);

o Revision to the orographic blocking scheme: modulation of the drag coefficient as a function of 1) the Froude number (stability), and 2) a non-linear directional amplification factor. See Wells et al. (2008) and Vosper et al. (2009).

o Improvement of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes: (1) the inclusion of a hysteresis effect; (2) a coupled-PBL approach using higher vertical resolution; (3) implementation of the distributed drag formulation (see Beljaars et al., 2004)

o Revision of parameterizations related to moist processes.

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o Sensitivity studies related to the tropopause cold bias. Aspects looked at: optical properties of cirrus clouds upper-level moisture thermodynamic functions

o Sensitivity studies related to the use of a multi-component 3D monthly climatology of aerosols;

o Sensitivity studies related to surface fluxes in order to evaluate the impact of new formulations of momentum roughness length and thermal roughness length, over land and over water;

o Sensitivity studies of an implicit treatment of surface fluxes;

Diagnosticso Extended daily diagnostics are being developed and will become available to our partners

(National Laboratories, universities, etc.)

4.2.3 Operationally available Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products4.2.3.1 Analysis

A series of classic analysis products are available in electronic or chart form (snow depth and snow cover, sea surface temperature, ice coverage, surface MSLP and fronts, upper-air geopotential height thickness at 500 hPa, geopotential height and winds at 250 hPa).

4.2.3.2 Forecasts

A series of classic forecast products are available in electronic or chart form (MSLP and 1000-500 hPa thickness, 500 hPa geopotential height and absolute vorticity, cumulative precipitation over given periods and vertical velocity, 700 hPa geopotential height and relative humidity). A wide range of bulletins containing spot forecasts for many locations are produced. As well, other specialized products such as precipitation type and probability of precipitation forecasts, temperature and temperature anomaly forecasts are produced.

4.2.4 Post-processing products (MOS, Perfect Prog, Kalman Filters, Expert Systems, etc.) available in Operations

4.2.4.1 In operation

Perfect Prog

6 h and 12 h probability of precipitation forecasts at the 0.2, 2 and 10 mm thresholds, at all projection times between 0 h and 144 hours (Verret, 1987). An error feedback system is applied on the probability of precipitation forecasts to remove the biases (Verret, 1989). Consistency is forced between the 6 h and the 12 h probability of precipitation forecasts using a rule based system, which favors forecasts sharpness. This guidance is also run experimentally out to 240 h.Spot time total cloud opacity at three-hour intervals between 0 and 144 h projection times (Verret, 1987). An error feedback system is applied on the forecasts to remove the biases and to force the forecasts to show the typical U-shaped frequency distribution like the one observed (Verret, 1989). This guidance is also run experimentally out to 240 h.Spot time surface temperatures at three-hour intervals between 0 and 144 hour projection times (Brunet, 1987). An anomaly reduction scheme is applied on the forecasts so that they converge toward climatology at the longer projection times. This guidance is also run experimentally out to 240 h.All weather element guidance mentioned above is also produced off each member of the Ensemble Prediction System at all projection times between 0 h and 240 h.Stratospheric ozone is used to calculate the Canadian UV Index (Burrows et al., 1994).

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Model Output Statistics (MOS)

For the global system, the 2-m temperature is post-processed using the UMOS (Wilson and Vallée, 2001 and 2002) package. This is done at three-hour intervals from 0 h to 144 h. Note that the other weather elements from the global model (winds, probability of precipitation and cloud cover) are statistically post-processed using the Perfect-Prog method.

Automated computer worded forecasts;SCRIBE

A system, named SCRIBE, is running at all the Regional Weather Centres in Canada to generate a set of automated plain language forecast products from a set of weather element matrices for days 3 to 7 inc. for the public forecast and for days 3 to 5 for the marine forecast (Verret et al., 1993; 1995; 1997). See the following section Weather element matrices. SCRIBE is the main tool for operational public and marine forecast preparation. Operational meteorologists use an interface to add value to the automated forecast as required. Once the meteorologist has reviewed the weather elements, Scribe system generates the forecast products automatically.

Weather element matrices

An ensemble of weather element matrices including statistical weather element guidance, direct model output parameters and climatological values are prepared at a 3-h time resolution at 1399 points in Canada and over adjacent waters. The data is valid at the projection times between 0 h and 144 h. A set of matrices developed in 2008 based on the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) extends the range out to day 7. Included in the weather element matrices are: climatological maximum / minimum temperatures on a local time window; statistical spot time temperature forecasts; maximum / minimum temperature forecasts calculated from the spot temperatures on a local time window; climatological frequencies of a trace or more of precipitation over 6-h and 12-h periods; climatological frequencies of 10 mm or more of precipitation over 12-h periods; statistical spot cloud opacity; statistical forecasts of probability of precipitation over 6-h and 12-h periods at the trace and 10 mm thresholds; model precipitation amounts; model cloud height in three categories high, middle and low, Showalter index; vertical motion at 850 hPa; conditional precipitation type; various thicknesses; wind direction and wind speed at surface; model surface dew-point depression; Canadian UV index; model total clouds; 6-h and 12-h diagnostic probability of precipitation; model surface temperature, model temperature and dew-point depression near -level 0.97; sea surface temperature; ice cover; snow depth; wave height forecasts and freezing spray accumulation forecasts. These matrices are disseminated to the Regional Weather Offices where they are used to feed an interactive system for composition of meteorological forecasts called SCRIBE (Verret et al., 1993; 1995 and 1997).


The list of predictors used in the Updatable Model Output Statistics (UMOS) are being re-examined in the scope of shortening the statistical adjustment period required. Tests with statistics from R&D final cycles before operational implementation of an updated numerical model and adjusted statistics are performed. Tests are being conducted to implement a 2-dimensional kriging interpolation procedure of UMOS innovations using trial computed from from the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). This new procedure will improve the forecasts from numerical models at sites without observations but in vicinity of sites with UMOS forecasts.

4.2.5 Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) ( Number of members, initial state, perturbation method, model(s), number of models used, perturbation of physics, post-processing; calculation of indices, clustering)

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Since 2005, the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) is making use of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) as data assimilation scheme to produce the initial conditions for the forecast model (see for details Houtekamer and Mitchell, 2005 and Houtekamer et al. 2005).

Twice per day 16-day global forecasts are produced using the CMC NWP model (named GEM, version 4.2) run with different physics packages. Here are the main characteristics:

Assimilation systemThe ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) uses four ensembles of 48 members for data assimilation for a total of 192 members. With the model top lifted from 10 hPa to 2 hPa, the EnKF assimilates more data in the Stratosphere from GPS-RO observations and more channels (11 and 12) from AMSU-A satellite. It has to be noted that the vertical localization of levels above 6 hPa is more restrictive to prevent channel 12 from having an influence at the model top. The configurations differ in the choice of the physical parameterizations used (convection, surface processes, gravity wave drag, mixing length). This is a similar approach (Monte-Carlo like) to the one applied to the forecast component since the introduction of the EPS in the CMC operational suite (see for example Houtekamer et al. 1996).

The EnKF assimilates the observations at their times of validity using the time interpolated trial fields from those at 3, 4.5, 6, 7.5 and 9-hours. The control variables are wind, temperature, specific humidity, surface pressure, radiative surface temperature. The initial perturbations have a global coverage and include perturbations to observations. Isotropic perturbations are added to the “pure” EnKF perturbations before the medium-range forecasts are started. No perturbation are done on SST, soil moisture or surface wind stress.

The 20 initial conditions for the medium-range ensemble forecasts are obtained in the following manner:1) Twice a day, at 00 and 12 UTC, twenty representative members are chosen among the 192 analyses

of the EnKF.2) The average of this sub set of analyses is constrained to be equal to the 192 member analyses

ensemble mean.

Forecast systemThe 20 initial conditions are then provided to the 20 configurations of the GEM model for the calculation of 16 day forecasts

The main model characteristics of the forecast component of the EPS system are:

o Only one dynamical core is used: GEM.o Horizontal resolution :600x300 uniform global grido ime step: 30 minuteso Number of levels: 40(it is 58 for the assimilation model)o Top of model: 2 hPao Stochastic perturbations of the physical tendencies inspired from Buizza et al. (1999) (Markov

chains with random number between 0.5 and 1.5 described in Li et al. 2008).o Stochastic kinetic energy back-scattering parameterization is used as in Shutts (2005).


In 2011, the EnKF system has been tested in combination with input from various configurations of the deterministic prediction system. This includes the use of an improved and higher-resolution sea-surface temperature analysis as well as various sets of bias-corrected radiance observations. A substantial effort has been made towards the use of more standard and modular assimilation software that can be shared between EnKF, En-Var and pre- and post-processing applications. Research on the sequential algorithm of the EnKF, aiming at the assimilation on larger volumes of observations has been started. For the medium-range prediction

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system, in support of the extension towards monthly ensemble forecast, the option of evolving surface fields with climatological trends has been added for half of the ensemble members.

4.2.5.3 Operationally available EPS Products

The following EPS products are available on the web as forecast charts (http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html) :

10-day mean temperature anomaly

Spaghetti plots of the 500 hPa heights

Calibrated probability of equivalent precipitation for various thresholds

Accumulated quantity of precipitation

Sea level pressure centres

500-hPa geopotential heights

Also available on the web page is the ensemble spread of the trial fields.

The EPS forecast gridded data are available in digital format (GRIB2) from a MSC server. Technical details as well as the terms and conditions of utilization of these data are available at this address:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/grib/index_e.html

The Canadian ensemble outputs are used in the North American Ensemble System (NAEFS) project, a joint initiative involving the MSC, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM). The following products based on the NAEFS joint ensemble forecasts are available on the official MSC web server :

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/index_e.html

Temperature anomaly for the second week (day 8 to 14 outlooks). This is a common product produced by MSC and the NWS.

EPSgrams for more than 300 cities in Canada, Mexico and the USA

Ensemble means and standard deviation charts for various gridded fields

Charts of probabilities of occurrence of several weather elements

Also, as mentioned in section 4.2.4.1, the Canadian EPS is used to produce Scribe matrices form day 1 to day 10.

4.3 Short range forecasting system (0-72 hours)4.3.1 Data assimilation, Objective analysis and initialization4.3.1.1 In operation

A continental variational data assimilation system (called REG-LAM3D) was implemented operationally on 20 th

October 2010 and is documented in Fillion et al. 2010. It is based on the Limited Area Model (LAM) version of the GEM model (GEM-LAM see section 4.3.2.1). For more details see the table below.

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Method The short-range forecasting system is driven using the analysis produced by the Regional Data Assimilation System (RDAS). This system consists of a 6-hour spin-up period during which a 6-hour trial field is produced by the Regional Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model (80 levels), which is initiated from the analysis of the Global 4D-Var Data Assimilation System.

The three-dimensional multivariate variational (3D-Var FGAT) method is used in the RDAS and it is performed at the end of the spin-up period. The computation of innovations for the regional analysis is performed using the high resolution grid of the GEM model. The 3DVar analyses are done in spectral space using the incremental approach.

The analysis fields are then supplied to the short-range forecasting model directly on its model vertical coordinates and limited area domain. (Fillion et al, 2010

Variables T, Ps, U, V and log q (specific humidity).

Levels Same 80 hybrid levels as the GEM global model.

Domain A LAM domain, covering North America and adjoining oceans (see section 4.3.2.1)

Grid The analysis is done spectrally as for the Global system but at T200. Analysis increments are then interpolated to the regional GEM-LAM3D model's analysis grid (15 km) at the end of the analysis step

Frequency and cut-off time

Four 6-hour spin-ups are produced each day (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC and 18 UTC). They are initiated from global analyses valid 6-hour earlier, followed by a regional GEM-LAM3D analysis at 00 UTC or 12 UTC with a cut off time of 9:00 hrs and 06 UTC or 18 UTC with a cut-off time of 6:30 hours. The final analysis of each spin-up (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC and 1800 UTC) has a cut-off of 2:05 hours. Data within +/- 3 hours of analysis time are used

Processing time

15 minutes for the analysis and 6 minutes for the 6-hour GEM integration.

Data used TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP/SHIP, AMV’s, ATOVS level 1b (AMSU-A, AMSU-B/MHS), BUOY/DRIFTER, PROFILER, AIRS, IASI, SSM/IS, GPS-RO, AScat, AIREP/AMDAR/ACARS/ADS, and clear sky radiance data from geostationary imagers.

Bogus Subjective bogus, as required.


Regional LAM AnalysisA 4D-VAR extension of the operational regional 3D-Var analysis has been finalized. Results from a first version of the system are reported in Tanguay et al (2011). Currently, this system is coupled to a GEM-10 km rather than 15 km. Optimisation of the VAR code under the new Power-7 IBM machines has been completed. The full system runs within its allocated 20 min real time and assimilates data every 15 min binning rather 45 min over the 6h data assimilation window. The performance of this new regional system at this point is significantly better than the operational 3D-VAR system in the range 0-48h. Operational

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implementation of this version of the Regional 4D-Var coupled to the GEM-10 km model is being planned for September 2012.

3D-VAR sea-ice analysisA new sea-ice analysis system has been developed, based on the 3D-Var approach to data assimilation. The main system has a domain that includes all ice-covered waters surrounding North America extending up to the North Pole, with a horizontal resolution of ~5 km. A persistence forecast from the analysis 6 hours earlier is used as the background state. Retrievals of ice concentration from passive microwave data (AMSR-E and SSM/I) and the subjective analyses produced by the Canadian Ice Service that heavily depend on RadarSAT images, are assimilated. This system, which is running in experimental model at CMC, will be upgraded during 2012 by additionally assimilating data from 3 SSM/IS sensors and from the scatterometer instrument ASCAT. A configuration of the system has also been adapted to produce global sea ice analyses for use in the global and regional NWP systems. The implementation in an experimental mode of the global system is planned for the second half of 2012.

Regional Deterministic Precipitation AnalysisA Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (RDPA) based on the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system became operational in April 2011. This analysis system provides 6-hourly and 24-hourly estimates of precipitation accumulation on a 15 km grid covering North America in near real-time. A second version of the system, which should assimilate radar QPE is under development. Finally, works were initiated in preparation to the upcoming new 10-km resolution Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) since it uses the RDPS model outputs as a first guess.

4.3.2 Model 4.3.2.1 In operation

This model is referred to as the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS). It is a Limited-Area Model (LAM) version of GEM covering North America. It was implemented in operation on 20 October 2010. For more detail about the dynamics and the physics core of the model see Côté et al., 1998a&b, and Mailhot et al., 2006.

Formulation Hydrostatic primitive equations.Domain LAM domainNumerical technique Finite differences: variable resolution Arakawa C grid in the horizontal

and Arakawa A grid in the vertical (Côté, 1997).Grid 672 x 649 resolution on latitude-longitude grid having a uniform 0.1375 º (~15

km) window covering North America and adjacent oceans

Note: This LAM is piloted by a Global model as per section 4.2.2.1. This global model’s grid , however, has a size of 720 x 360. This grid is rotated to be aligned with the LAM. domain

Levels 80 hybrid levels. Model lid at 0.1 hPa.Time integration Implicit, semi-Lagrangian (3-D), 2 time-level, 450 second per time step (Côté

et al., 1998a and 1998b).Independent variables x, y, and time.Prognostic variables East-west and north-south winds, temperature, specific humidity and

logarithm of surface pressure, cloud water content, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE).

Derived variables MSL pressure, relative humidity, QPF, precipitation rate, omega, cloud amount, boundary layer height and many others.

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Geophysical variables:

derived from analyses at initial time, predictive

derived from climatology at initial time, predictive

derived from analyses, fixed in time

derived from climatology, fixed in time

Surface and deep soil temperatures, surface and deep soil moisture ISBA scheme (Noilhan and Planton, 1989); snow depth, snow albedo

Sea ice thickness

Sea surface temperature, ice cover

Surface roughness length (except over water); soil volume thermal capacity; soil thermal diffusivity.

Horizontal diffusion Del-6 on momentum variables only, except for top sponge layer (del-2 applied on momentum variables at the 4 uppermost levels of the model).

Orography Extracted from USGS, US Navy, NCAR and GLOBE data bases using in house software.

Gravity wave drag Parameterized (McFarlane, 1987; McFarlane et al., 1987).Non-orographic gravity wave drag

Parameterized ( Hines, 1997a,b)

Low level blocking Parameterized (Lott and Miller, 1997; Zadra et al., 2003).Radiation Solar and infrared using a correlated-k distribution (CKD) (Li and Barker,

2005)Surface scheme Mosaic approach with 4 types: land, water, sea ice and glacier (Bélair et al.,

2003a and 2003b).Surface roughness length over water

Charnock formulation

Boundary-layer turbulent mixing (vertical diffusion) with wet formulation

Based on turbulent kinetic energy (Benoît et al., 1989; Delage, 1988a and 1988b), with statistical representation of subgrid-scale clouds (Mailhot and Bélair, 2002; Bélair et al., 2005) ). Mixing length from Blackadar.

Shallow convection Kuo Transient scheme (Bélair et al., 2005)Stable precipitation Sundqvist scheme (Sundqvist et al., 1989; Pudykiewicz et al., 1992).Deep convection Kain & Fritsch scheme. (Kain and Fritsch, 1990 and 1993)


Regional Deterministic Prediction SystemResearch is performed to bring the horizontal grid spacing from 15 to 10 km. This involved readjusting several of the sub-grid scale parameterizations, including the formulation of roughness length and vertical diffusion, latent heat fluxes over oceans. Some work on solar radiation and the triggering of deep convection is also performed. Verification of precipitation against different analyses is performed. A boundary layer scheme with hysteresis effects has been introduced to maintain a more realistic profile in inversion situations.

For short-range forecasts at the regional scale, it is likely that a model lid in the higher middle atmosphere is not necessary. Research has been performed to allow for lid piloting. This implies that the pilot can have a lid higher than the piloted model without degradation of the predictive skill (McTaggart-Cowan et al., 2011).

Research has been performed to start adapting the Milbrandt-Yau microphysics scheme (Milbrandt and Yau, 2005a, 2005b) for lower-resolution applications (~10 to 30 km) by introducing a cloud fraction formulation to the scheme.

High-resolution Deterministic prediction System

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A non-hydrostatic limited-area version of the GEM model (GEM-LAM) at 2.5-km horizontal resolution (58 vertical levels) is used to make experimental runs at CMC once a day for 24 hours. Currently, four experimental windows are in used:

1- West window (southern British Columbia)

2- East window (southern Ontario-Quebec)

3- Maritimes window (Atlantic provinces)

4- Baffin Island (Arctic) window

Extensive work for particular applications (e.g. wind energy forecasting) has been done. In particular, the connection of the surface with the atmosphere has been studied, and the use of small domains for wind forecasting has been performed.

In addition to the four windows, an experimental domain, during the summer over the Lancaster Sound in the Arctic, has been performed in a development mode and were positively evaluated by the Canadian Ice Service. The high-resolution wind field can help them better predict ice movements, which is a prerequisite for safe maritime transport activities in Arctic waters.

Research has been initiated to provide a Canadian-wide high-resolution (2.5 km grid spacing) short-range forecasting system to the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Emphasis is put on improving the spin-up time scale of the model to allow for relatively rapid data assimilation cycles.

High-resolution external land surface prediction system (200 m)A prototype for this new system was successfully tested for several applications, including the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic Games. A national extension of this system, at 200-m grid spacing, is currently being tested to improve short-range prediction of near-surface meteorological variables, including air temperature, humidity, and winds.

4.3.3 Operationally available NWP products 4.3.3.1 Analysis

Basic upper-air analysis products are available in electronic or chart form (geopotential height and vorticity or thickness at 500 hPa, geopotential height and winds or temperature at 850, 700, 250 hPa).

4.3.3.2 Forecasts

A wide variety of forecast products are available in electronic or chart form. These include the classic charts such as MSLP and 1000-500 hPa thickness, 500 hPa geopotential height and absolute vorticity, cumulative precipitation and vertical velocity, 700 hPa geopotential height and relative humidity. Series of special charts are produced in the context of the summer or winter severe weather (tropopause, stability indices, wind shear, helicity, wind chill, liquid water content, streamlines, low-level maximum wind, vertical motion, etc.) or in the specific support for aviation forecasting (icing, freezing level, height of cloud ceiling, momentum flux, turbulence, etc.). A wide range of bulletins containing spot forecasts are produced for many locations over North America.

4.3.4 Operationally available Techniques of NWP products (MOS, PPM, KF, Expert Systems, etc)4.3.4.1 In operation

Perfect Prog

Same as in 4.2.4 except based on the regional model and for lead time within 48 hours

Model An Updateable MOS system (Wilson and Vallée, 2001 and 2002) issued for the

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Output Statistics (MOS)

statistical post-processing of the direct regional model outputs. This regional post-processing system currently provides forecasts for :

2-m surface temperatures and dew point temperatures at spot locations at three-hour intervals between 0 and 48 hour projection times at 00 and 12 UTC, and between 0 and 54 hour at 06 and 18 UTC.

10-m surface wind speed and wind direction at spot locations at three-hour intervals between 0 and 48, or 54, h projection times.

6h and 12h probability of precipitation at spot locations at the 0.2 mm threshold between 0 and 48, or 54, h projection times.

Total cloud opacity at three-hour intervals in four categories. Surface winds at maritime locations (mostly buoys) at six-hour intervals

between 0 and 48 or 54 hour projection times. Forecasts are produced for more than 100 locations including part of Pacific and Atlantic oceans but also for some large Canadian inland water bodies.

Equations are valid for the four runs (00, 06, 12 18UTC).

Diagnostic techniques on direct model output fields

Charts of forecast icing (Tremblay et al., 1995), turbulence (Ellrod, 1989), cloud amounts with bases and tops, freezing levels and tropopause heights. The charts are produced at 6h intervals out to 24 hours. These charts constitute the Aviation Package.Forecast charts of buoyant energy, helicity, convective storm severity index, low level wind shear, precipitable water, low and high level wind maximum, surface temperature and dew points, heights and contours at 250 hPa and tropopause heights. The charts are produced at 6h intervals out to 24 hours. These charts constitute the Summer Severe Weather Package.Forecast charts of precipitation type (Bourgouin, 2000), 250 hPa contour heights and vorticity, precipitable water, 6-h precipitation amounts, wind chill, surface temperature, thickness values and warm or above freezing layers with bases and tops. The charts are produced at 6h intervals out to 24 hours. These charts constitute the Winter Severe Weather Package.Forecast charts of the mean sea level pressure at 21 UTC with the forecast precipitation amounts between 12 and 00 UTC; charts of the streamlines at 21 UTC with the wind mileage (time integration of the wind speed) between 12 and 00 UTC; charts of the forecast minimum and maximum boundary layer height and the ventilation coefficient. These charts, valid for Today and Tomorrow, constitute the Air Quality Package.Direct model outputs are used to forecast upper air winds and temperatures for aviation purposes.Several parameters interpolated at stations, formatted and transmitted operationally to Regional Offices.

Automated computer worded forecast: Scribe

A system, named SCRIBE, is running at all the Regional Weather Centres in Canada to generate a set of automated plain language forecast products, including public, agricultural, forestry, snow, air quality and marine forecasts from a set of weather element matrices for days 1, 2 and 3. (Verret et al., 1993; 1995; 1997). See the following section Weather element matrices. SCRIBE is the main tool for operational public forecast preparation. Operational meteorologists use an interface to add value to the automated forecast as required. Once the meteorologist has reviewed the weather element, Scribe system generates the forecast products automatically


Same as section 4.2.4, except the data is valid at projection times between 0 and 48 hours at 00 and 12 UTC, and between 0 and 54 hours at 06 and 18 UTC, and UMOS guidance is used instead of Perfect Prog one. Scribe matrices are produced four times a day (00, 06, 12 18UTC).

Supplementary weather element matrices have been developed and implemented in

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quasi-operational mode. The content of these matrices include mean sea level pressure, surface pressure, lifted index, highest freezing level, mean wind direction and speed over the four lowest level of the driving model, boundary layer height and ventilation coefficients at time of minimum and maximum temperatures, instantaneous and accumulated downward infra-red and visible radiation fluxes, model temperature and dew-point at 925 and 850 hPa, wind speed and direction at 925 and 850 hPa, model boundary layer height, concentration of ozone near surface, as well as PM2.5, PM10, NO2, NO and SO2. The time resolution of these matrices is 3 hours, with projection times out to 48 hours.


Same as section 4.2.4.2. More specifically, work is underway to combine NWP and statistical forecasts using an optimal interpolation engine to produce merged 2-D fields for 0 to 48 or 54 hours, to include in weather element matrices. Work is also underway to insert MOS marine winds in weather element matrices.

4.3.5 Ensemble Prediction System (number of members, initial state, perturbation method, Model(s) and number of models used, perturbation of physics, post processing :calculations of indices, clustering)


No regional ensemble system in operations at this time for short range forecasting.


In the first half of 2011, the first version of the Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) at 33 km grid spacing has been finalized for operational implementation. The 20 members of the REPS consist of limited-area configurations of the GEM model over a continental, North American domain. Initial conditions are provided by the operational Global Ensemble Kalman filter, and the lateral boundary conditions are provided by the GEPS. Research is under way to represent model errors related to surface and precipitation processes. All members use the same physics and dynamics. However, physical tendencies of individual members are perturbed with Markov chains.

Initial work has started to bring the horizontal grid spacing to 15 km.

4.3.5.3 Operationally available EPS Products

EPS products for short range forecasting have been under development, but none were operationally available as of 2011. Experimental products for the REPS include the following:

EPSgrams for stations in Canada

Probabilistic charts for min and max surface temperature, 10m winds and precipitation for various thresholds

Median and percentile maps for min and max surface temperature, 10m winds and precipitation

4.4 Nowcasting and Very Short-range Forecasting Systems (0-6hrs)4.4.1 Nowcasting systems4.4.1.1 In operation

The SCRIBE Weather Forecast Product Expert System is capable of ingesting the latest observations and nowcasting model data to update in real time the Scribe weather elements. This sub-system has been developed to minimize the necessary manual adjustments done by the forecaster to merge the current weather conditions with the forecast.

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The Scribe Nowcasting uses surface observations (North American radar mosaic data have been temporarily removed) and lighting data from the Lighting Detection Network. These observations are used to feed short term forecast models. A statistical model called “PubTools” uses the surface observations to forecast the probabilities of occurrences of weather elements. The observed radar reflectivities are projected during the next 6 hours with a vector motion calculated from observed imageries 20 minutes apart. Finally, an algorithm has been developed at CMC to predict the probabilities of thunderstorm occurrences based on the forecast position of the lightning clusters. For weather elements not observed or not associated to a short term forecast model, the regional deterministic prediction system run four times a day is used as a fall back. All these observed and forecast data are processed by rules base system to determine the best sequence of weather elements representing the current observation and short term tendencies.


Radar QC/QPE ProjectThe first Unified Radar Processor (URP) development cycle in several years was developed for operational implementation. As of December 2010 it was still in evaluation mode. It included a major upgrade to the QC/QPE data analysis software whereby bad and no data regions were explicitly identified and where improved ground clutter algorithms were included. When operational in 2011 it should provide better radar data and improved QPE estimates

Canadian HUB Airport Nowcasting System (CAN-Now)Significant progress was made in the development of this system. The situation awareness chart was updated, and several new algorithms for visibility, wind gusts and precipitation were tested. Algorithms were implemented that compared observational data for several variables to several model-based predictions and that subsequently identified the best model to be used for a deterministic nowcast of the variable in question. Algorithms that merged observation and model data together were developed for evaluation but not implemented. Significant performance measurement development was undertaken to help quantitatively assess these nowcasting methods and algorithms.

Science and Nowcasting for Olympics Weather – Vancouver 2010 (SNOW V10)The field portion of the SNOW V10 project associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympics was completed in the summer of 2010. The instrument sites were kept operating for several months after the Olympics in order to acquire more case studies, data from different seasons and more data for statistical analysis. During the 2010 winter Olympics, the project used an advanced nowcasting system similar to the one used for the CAN-Now project described above to provide supplementary information on visibility, precipitation, and winds to operational forecasters in formats that were useful both for forecasting and for client decision making.

Fog Research And Modeling Project (FRAM) A field program for the Fog Research and Modelling project was undertaken in Yellowknife. This project was focused on investigating the microphysics of ice fog formation, evolution and dissipation in order to better detect and forecast ice fog conditions. A manual for warm fog forecasting, which included extensive overviews of all detection and prediction methods was produced for the operational forecaster community

Research Support Desk Project (RSD)Summer research support desks were undertaken in the Ontario Region and Prairie Region Storm Prediction Centres. In each location, the close proximity of research and operational staff during high impact weather events was used to provide a feedback process between research and operations, whereby research staff learned the needs and gaps in the operational program and operations staff learned improved forecasting techniques. Significant development in the last year was focused on improving the weather depiction interface to the forecaster in order to optimize the efficiency of warning production. These techniques were demonstrated but have not yet been implemented.

Statistical downscalingTesting of the statistical post-processing using the UMOS package was completed on the experimental GEM-LAM 2.5 km. The same weather element forecasts produced by regional forecast system have been

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generated, i.e. spot 2-m hourly surface temperature, 10-m hourly surface wind speed and direction, 6-h and 12-h probability of precipitation and total hourly cloud opacity. Verifications have shown that UMOS generally improves the experimental GEM-LAM 2.5km forecasts

4.4.2 Models for very short range forecasting4.4.2.1 In operation

No very short range forecasting system in operations at this time.


LAM urban windowWork is being done on an “urbanized” LAM window at 250-m resolution over the Vancouver metropolitan urban area, developed as part of the Urban Meteorology Modeling System. Research activities to reduce the spin-up time-scale of numerical models

High-resolution land surface modelingThe external land surface prediction system, with 200-m grid spacing over Canada, has been initiated.shown to significantly decrease NWP errors in the first 6 hours of integration. The larger impact has been found for air temperature and humidity. This system, when implemented, will allow a more optimal use of NWP products in nowcasting systems.

4.5 Specialized forecasts (on sea waves, sea ice, tropical cyclones, pollution transport and dispersion, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, air quality forecasting, smoke,, etc.)

4.5.1 Assimilation of specific data, analysis and initialization (where applicable)4.5.1.1 In operation

Fields Analysis Grid(s) Method Trial Field Frequency Data Source

Surface air temperature

a)1080x540 gaussian

b) regional grid

Optimum interpolation

Model forecast of temperature at hybrid=1.0

a) 6 hours

b) 24 hours at 18 UTC

Synop, Metar, SA, Ship, Buoy, Drifter, Metar,

Surface dew point depression

a)1080x540 gaussian

b) regional grid


Model forecast of dew point depression at hybrid=1.0

a) 6 hours

b) 24 hours at 18 UTC

Synop, Metar, SA, Ship, Buoy, Drifter

Sea surface temperature anomaly

a)1080x504 gaussian

b)1800x900 gaussian


Previous analysis 24 hours

(at 00z)

Ship, Drifter. BuoyBuoy,AVHRR-GHRSST, A/ATSR , A/ATSR (Brasnett, 1997); Plus AAMSR-E for b) (Brasnett, 2008 and 2009)

Snow depth a)1080x540 gaussian

b)Variable resolution 15 km grid;

c)2.5 km grid over British Columbia


Previous analysis with estimates of snowfall and snowmelt

6 hours Synop, Metar, Sa (Brasnett, 1999)

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Ice cover 1080x540 gaussian Data averaging with a return to climatology in areas where data are not available.

24 hours SSM/I, plus ocean and lake Ice data from the Canadian Ice Centre

Deep soil temperature

1080x540 gaussian Derived from climatology and a running mean of the surface air temperature analysis

6 hours No direct measurements available

Soil moisture 400 x 200 gaussian Derived from climatology No measurements available

Albedo 400 x 200 gaussian Derived from albedo climatology, vegetation type, the snow depth analysis and the ice cover analysis

6 hours No direct measurements available


CaPAThe most important input for hydrological prediction and land data assimilation systems is generally precipitation. This has lead to the development of a Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Currently, CaPA uses optimal interpolation to combine a background field obtained from a short-term forecast of the GEM model in its regional configuration (at 15km) with observations of precipitation accumulations. The domain covers all of Canada and most of the continental United States. Observations are obtained by combining the reports from the synoptic observation network with reports from COOP networks (currently only over the US and over the Province of Quebec. Research currently focuses on including other sources of observation in the analysis, including observations of clear sky from GOES imagery, ground radar QPE, and lightning observations. Efforts are also devoted to increasing the number of COOP network stations in the analysis and to correcting bias in solid precipitation measurements.

CaLDASDevelopment of a first version of the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) has been completed. The new system assimilates a larger amount of data using an Ensemble Kalman Filter technique. For soil moisture, remote sensing data from ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission and from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) is being examined. This data will be assimilated in conjunction with near-surface air temperature and humidity. For snow, a project has been completed to use space-based high-resolution optical information (e.g., from MODIS) to specify snow fractional coverage and microwave information (e.g., AMSR-E or SSM/I) to retrieve snow water equivalent will be examined. Finally, work is also underway to improve the first guess for the assimilation of leaf area index (LAI). The Biome-BGC model, predicting the evolution of ecosystems including fluxes of water, energy, carbon, and nitrogen, is used for the evolution of vegetation. Results from Biome-BGC will be provided in a simple LAI assimilation system developed a few years ago at Environment Canada. Current projects are under way to couple CaLDAS with upper-air assimilation systems for global and regional analyses. The impact of CaLDAS land surface analyses (for surface temperatures, soil moisture, and snow) is currently being tested for medium-range NWP systems. It will also soon be done for short-range and longer-range systems.

Chemical data assimilationResearch is ongoing on the development of a global 3D-var chemical data assimilation system. This system is based on the 3D-var meteorological assimilation system (v10.3.1) using Near Real Time ozone profiles, ozone partial columns and total columns. This chemically and radiatively coupled data assimilation system has been evaluated over the 2009 and summer 2008 test periods. It is based on a linearized stratospheric photochemical module which is included on-line in the GEM NWP model. The evaluation has been performed against independent observations including ACE, OSIRIS, MIPAS, and ozonesonde measurements.

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Objective Analysis for Surface PolluantsThe regional chemical analysis system which has been used at EC since 2003 will become operational in Fall 2012. It is based on optimal interpolation and combines on an hourly basis, chemical trial fields from GEM-MACH and surface observations from AirNow US/EPA database and most of land based Canadian surface stations including CAPMON and NAPS Canadian networks. Research and development continues on how to improve the quality of ozone analyses and correct biases have been done. Recent experiments which assessed the impact of surface ozone analyses on forecast show a positive impact up to 24 hours. Further optimization of the analysis cycle is now underway in view of a future operational implementation. An investigation on the use of satellite observations will also be undertaken for the next two years in collaboration with Canadian universities.

Assimilation of tracer concentration data analysis and initialization of dispersion modelsResearch is ongoing to improve the adjoint/inverse modes of the operational dispersion models. Techniques involving source-receptor sensitivity coefficients are also being developed (also known as adjoint concentrations. In both cases, the goal is to use concentration measurements at short range to reassess often poorly known source terms. This research aims at using radiation monitoring data near nuclear facilities continuously available in real time, together with short range dispersion models in inverse mode to feed re-evaluated source term information to longer range transport model in the event of a serious accident.

Assimilation for Climate ApplicationsData assimilation studies with the Canadian middle atmosphere model were concluded in 2010 with the end of funding sources. Results were published in Ren et al. (2011), Pulido et al. (2012) and McLandress et al. (2012).

Effort is now focused on the development of an operational data assimilation system for greenhouse gas flux estimation. This system, called EC-CAS (EC Carbon Assimilation System) is now under development and will use an ensemble Kalman smoother (based on the operational EPS) in conjunction with GEM-MACH. This year a version of GEM-MACH suitable for CO2 simulation was developed and based on GEM-MACH v1.4.0. Validation of the model was also begun. Emissions from CarbonTracker a posteriori fluxes for terrestrial biosphere and ocean, along with GFED v3 Fire emissions and fossil fuel emissions from CarbonTracker (based on CDIAC). Simulations were run for Jan 2009-March 2010. Preliminary results reveal reasonable comparisons with surface measurements (no assimilation was done). Temporal evolution reveals a problem with large mixing ratios in the stratopause region though the total mass accumulation there is very small. The next year’s effort will focus on developing the assimilation system, and adapting the model to GEM v4.4.0 since the EnsKF works only with versions higher than 4.

4.5.2 Specific (Forecast) Models4.5.2.1 In operations

Air Quality ModelSince November 2009, the Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) is based on the model GEM-MACH . GEM-MACH combines the weather forecast model GEM with an in-line chemical transport model. For the RAQDPS, GEM-MACH is based on the GEM 3.3.3 and PHY 4.7.2 librairies and uses a configuration very similar to that used by RDPS. The model grid covers North America with a resolution of 15 km. It has 58 vertical hybrid levels extending up to 0.1 hPa (~65 km). The air quality process representations in GEM-MACH include gas-phase, aqueous-phase, and heterogeneous chemistry and aerosol processes. It uses a 2-bin sectional representation of the PM size distribution, but PM chemical composition is treated in more detail and additional processes affecting PM concentrations have been included (Anselmo et al., 2010). In October 2011, a new set of emissions for the United States was introduced: the set, which replaces one based on the 2005 US EPA emission inventory, is a projection valid for 2012 build by the US EPA using the 2005 inventory. The Canadian emissions remained unchanged. They are based on the 2006 emission inventory provided by the Pollution Inventory and Reporting Division of Environment Canada.

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o The SMOKE emissions processing system is used to produce hourly anthropogenic input emission files on the GEM-MACH rotated latitude-longitude grid. The emissions files account for hour, day, month and primary emissions type (on-road mobile, off-road mobile and area, major and minor point sources, and biogenic). Biogenic emissions are estimated on-line using the BEIS v3.09 algorithms and depend on near-surface temperature, solar radiation, and Julian day.

o The RAQDPS runs twice daily at 00 and 12 UTC to produce 48 hour forecasts. The limited-area domain covers the bulk of North America and adjacent waters and is initialized and piloted at the boundaries by meteorological fields from the RDPS (see section 4.3). Chemical species are initialized using the 12-h forecast of the previous RAQDPS run. Climatological chemical profiles are applied at the lateral boundaries.

Ozone and UV index forecastingThe Canadian Global model is used to prepare ozone and UV Index forecast at the 18 hour projection time based on 00 UTC data and at the 30 hour projection time based on 12 UTC data (Burrows et al., 1994). A Perfect Prog statistical method is used for forecasting total ozone, which is then supplemented with an error-feedback procedure. UV Index is calculated from the corrected ozone forecast. Correction factors have been added to take into account the snow albedo, elevation and Brewer angle response.

Regional coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice forecastingA fully-interactive coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice forecasting system for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) has been implemented on 9 June 2011 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). The strategy includes three main parts: (1) An oceanic pseudo-analysis cycle, (2) A superimposed sea ice The forecast analysis based on direct insertion of Radarsat analysis and (3) a coupled forecast cycle. Note that the coupled forecast cycle is a 48 hour simulation based on 00 UTC data where both of its models (GEM-LAM and OCEAN-ICE) run at the same time. It provides 00-48 hour weather, sea ice and ocean forecasts.

Wave forecastingThe regional deterministic wave prediction system (RDWPS) is based on the dynamical wave model WAM (WAve Model - version 4.5.1). RDWPS is configured to provide sea-state forecasts over the following domains: Arctic, Eastern Pacific, and North Atlantic Oceans, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and four Great Lakes (Ontario, Erie, Huron and Superior). Each domain runs up to six times a day at (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC). Four runs are forced by forecast winds from the Regional Deterministic Prediction System. The other two runs are for long-range forecasts (120h) and are based on forecast winds from the Global Deterministic Prediction System.

The resolution over the Arctic and Eastern Pacific Oceans is set to 0.5º. The North Atlantic Ocean is at a resolution of 0.15º and a resolution of 0.05º is used over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Great Lakes.

Storm Surge forecasting in the Atlantic regionThe Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre (ASPC) located in Halifax produces operational storm surge forecasts over Eastern Canada using the barotropic version of Dalcoast developed at Dalhousie University specifically for this region. It is run twice daily (00 UTC and 12 UTC). The storm surge model is driven with surface air pressure and winds from the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS). The RDPS runs at a resolution of 0.08° and covers the North West Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Environmental Emergency Response modelsThe CMC is able to provide real-time air concentrations and surface deposition estimates of airborne pollutants. These fields are obtained from 3-D short / long range atmospheric transport/dispersion/deposition Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Models named MLDP0, MLCD and MLDP1 (The "CANadian Emergency Response Model" or "CANERM" which had been in use for almost 20 years was retired in early 2010) Important applications from these models are the estimation of the concentrations of radionuclides and volcanic ash. Based on this operational capability, the CMC is designated by the WMO as a Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) with specialization in Atmospheric Transport Modeling Products for Environmental Emergency Response. In addition, CMC is designated by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as a Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC). There has been

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an increased use of these operational atmospheric transport modeling tools to the dispersion of chemical and biological agents in the context of the response to local environmental emergencies.

The Lagrangian Particle Models are "off-line" models. Therefore fields of wind, moisture, temperature and geopotential heights must be provided to them. These are obtained either from the Global or Regional forecasts and objective analysis systems. Please refer to the above sections 4.2 and 4.3 for more information on these NWP products.

All Environmental Emergency Response (EER) models can be launched easily with a flexible Graphical User Interface (GUI) called SPI. SPI has been under development for many years at CMC and allows officers in duty to respond efficiently to emergencies

o MLDP0 (Modèle Lagrangien de Dispersion de Particules d’ordre 0)

MLDP0 is a Lagrangian Particle Model described in D’Amours & Malo, 2004. In this model, dispersion is estimated by calculating the trajectories of a very large number of air particles (or parcels). The trajectory calculations are done in two parts: 3-D displacements due to the transport by the synoptic component of the wind, then 3-D displacements due to unresolved turbulent motions. Dry deposition is modeled in term of a deposition velocity. Wet deposition will occur when a particle is presumed to be in a cloud. The tracer removal rate is proportional to the local cloud fraction.

The source is controlled through a sophisticated emission scenario module which is a function of the release rate of each radionuclide over time. For volcanic eruptions, a particle size distribution is used to model the gravitational settling effects in the trajectory calculations according to Stokes’s law. The total released mass can be estimated from an empirical formula derived by Sparks et al., 1997, which is a function of particle density, plume height and effective emission duration. In MLDP0, tracer concentrations at a given time and location are obtained by assuming that particles carry a certain amount of tracer material. The concentrations are then obtained by calculating the average residence time of the particles, during a given time period, within a given sampling volume, and weighting it according to the material amount carried by the particle.

MLDP0 can be executed in forecast mode for up to day 10, using the operational Global forecast model, and up to 48 hours using the operational Regional GEM-LAM3D model. MLDP0 can also be executed in hind cast mode, globally. MLDP0 can be executed in inverse (adjoint) mode. The model has been used extensively in this configuration in the context of the WMO-CTBTO cooperation.

o MLCD (Modèle Lagrangien à Courte Distance)

MLCD is a Lagrangian Particle Model described in details in Flesch, et al. 2002. It is designed to estimate air concentrations and surface depositions of pollutants for very short range (less than ~10 km from the source) emergency problems at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. As in MLDP0, this 3-D Lagrangian dispersion model calculates the trajectories of a very large number of air particles. MLCD is a first order Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model because the trajectories of the particles are calculated from the velocities increments, while MLDP0 is a zeroth order Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model since the trajectories of the parcels are updated from the displacements increments.

The Langevin Stochastic Equation is based on the turbulent components of the wind associated to the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). These fluctuating components, vertical and horizontal are generated from a "user provided" set of wind observations (velocity + direction) time dependant through a "two-layer" model (Flesch and Wilson, 2004). MLCD can take into account the horizontal diffusion for unresolved scales operating at time scales longer than those associated to the TKE. The removal processes of radioactive decay, wet scavenging and dry deposition can also be simulated by the model. MLCD can be run in forward or inverse mode

o MLDP1 (Modèle Lagrangien de Dispersion de Particules d’ordre 1)

A full 3-D first order Lagrangian Particle Model called MLDP1 has been implemented for short range dispersion problems on horizontal domains of 100-200 km, with a time horizon of about 12 hours. This stochastic dispersion model is well described in Flesch, et al. 2004. The fluctuating components of the

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turbulent wind are obtained by partitioning the TKE calculated in the driving NWP models. MLDP1 is parallelized to run on several nodes on the supercomputer at CMC.


Air Quality ModelThe operational GEM-MACH15 AQ forecast was a participant in an experimental ensemble prediction system that was operated during the CalNex experiment in the summer of 2010. This study had as it’s focus a trans-Pacific transport to North America from Asia. The ensemble prediction setup was lead by NOAA; other members of the ensemble forecast aside from GEM-MACH15 included 8 members (NOAA’s operational CMAQ/NAM 12km model, a research version of CMAQ/NAM utilizing RAQMS lateral boundary conditions, BAMS 15km MAQSIP, BAMS 45km MAQSIP, BAMS 45km CMAQ, WRF/CHEM 20km (with 2 real-time variations with and without RAQSM lateral boundary conditions)), and GO-CART with/without data assimilation was run in retrospective mode. The study suggested that there is considerable room for improvement in the models; while GEM-MACH had the highest r-coefficient score for ozone (0.69), none of the models beat the r-coefficient score of persistence across all observation points and over time (0.81). GEM-MACH also had the highest r-coefficient for PM2.5 of the models (0.72), while persistence r-coefficient was 0.89. The study highlighted several important differences in the partitioning of emitted volatile organic compounds and speciated particulate matter, between the models. Retrospective analysis of the study is still underway, and is expected to continue throughout 2012

Development began on a version of GEM-MACH which includes wildfire emission. The work is being conducted in collaboration with the Canadian Forest Service. Wildfires are the main cause of extreme bad air conditions in Canada yet are not currently included in GEM-MACH. The technology will be transferred to the RAQDPS. In addition, emission fields continue to be improved through the generation of new spatial allocation surrogate for a number of emission sectors.

High resolution land surface predictionSeveral new models and approaches are currently being examined to better predict surface or near-surface conditions over land. An external land surface modeling system has been developed and is now integrated at grid sizes much smaller than that of the atmospheric models. This increased resolution allows better exploitation of geophysical information on orography, land use / land cover, and water fractional coverage. Adaptation, or downscaling, of atmospheric forcing (precipitation, temperature, humidity, winds) is used to more realistically drive the surface processes. The success of this approach has been demonstrated in mountainous regions (as a prototype is prepared for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic Games). A first implementation of this system at CMC-Operations is expected in the next year.

Improvement or inclusions of several aspects of land surface modeling are currently being tested. A multi-budget multi-layer version of the Interactions between Surface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (M-ISBA) has been designed, coded, and is now being tested for several applications. In addition, a new appraoch to the coupling between the land surface canopy (including vegetation and cities) has been developed and is also being tested. Other aspects of surface modeling that are being examined include the representation of snow over sea-ice, blowing snow (using the PIEKTUK model), and urban modeling with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model. The very high resolution land surface system is being proposed for several applications, including meteorological predictions in cities and surface hydrological predictions (soil moisture, snow on ground, runoff and drainage)

The regional coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice systemsR&D is being performed on several regional coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice systems:

1) A fully-interactive coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice forecasting system for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) has been implemented in 2011 at CMC. The oceanic component is the ocean-ice model of the GSL at 5-km resolution developed at the Maurice-Lamontagne Institute. Work has been done to replace that component by an adapted NEMO ocean model version. Investigation is also ongoing to better understand the effect of the coupling on the low level atmosphere.

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2) A similar system to 1) is currently in development over Great-Lakes using a 2km resolution configuration of NEMO. The NEMO ocean model is currently under evaluation and initial development work on a coupled GEM-NEMO configuration for the Great Lakes has begun.

3) Development and validation of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system. The objective is to allow the expansion of the end-to-end analysis and forecasting system (with a few days lead time) for production of marine information products beyond the Canadian Arctic into the international waters of METNAV Areas XVII and XVIII.

The research efforts will focus on:

Development, validation and implementation of marine forecasts with lead times to 1-3 days based on the EC regional high resolution coupled multi-component modeling (atmosphere, land, snow, ice, ocean, wave) and data assimilation system,

Development and validation of a sea ice analysis system; Development and validation of automated techniques for near-real-time utilization of various

satellite data types to improve surface wind estimation, extract sea ice features and detect and estimate the presence of ice hazards (icebergs, ice islands)

The operational implementation of this system will be made in phases beginning with a stand-alone sea ice prediction system. This will be followed by subsequent additions of coupling to an ocean component and full coupling to the atmosphere.

The initial stand-alone ice prediction system used for the first phase of the METAREAs system is based on the 3DVAR sea ice analysis system combined with the Los Alamos CICE v4.1 multi-category dynamic/thermodynamic sea ice model. CICE also includes a simple mixed-layer ocean model in order to allow growth/melt during the forecast integration. CICE is initialized with the 3DVAR sea ice concentration analyses, CMC sea surface temperature analyses and a climatological ice thickness field. 48hr forecasts on a 5km grid are then produced by forcing the sea ice model with 15-km atmospheric forecasts from Environment Canada’s Regional Deterministic Prediction System and by monthly climatological ocean currents.

For a one-year period (2010), daily 48hr 5-km resolution ice forecasts have been validated against Canadian Ice Service (CIS) daily ice charts, sea-ice concentration data derived from RADARSAT measurements and products from the NSIDC Ice Mapping System. Overall, results show a significant improvement of the forecasting skill as compared to persistence of the 3DVAR analysis. This system will be run daily starting spring 2012. These forecasts will form the basis of a collaborative evaluation between RPN-E Section and CIS operations.

The global coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice systemEnvironment Canada (EC), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), and the Department of National Defence (DND) are preparing an operational global coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice data assimilation and prediction system that can ingest in-situ Argo float data and satellite observations such as sea surface height and temperature.

In order to initialize coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice forecasts an ocean analysis is required. To this end, the Mercator-Ocean assimilation system has been setup on EC computers. This system has been running experimentally since December 2010 producing weekly analyses and 10 day ice-ocean forecasts using the NEMO modeling system and the Mercator assimilation system. The Mercator data assimilation system is a multi-variate reduced-order extended Kalman filter that assimilates sea level anomaly, sea surface temperature (SST) and in situ temperature and salinity data. Ice fields are initialized using Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) daily ice analyses. Research activities have focused on evaluating the SST and sea ice forecasts.

A 2-way interactive coupling of the GEM and NEMO global models has been completed and is under evaluation.

Wave modelingWave modeling research is being conducted primarily under two projects:

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1) METAREAS – “Provision of wave forecasts for METAREA XVII/XVIII in support of the Global Maritime Safety and Distress System (GMDSS)”.

2) PERD (Program for Energy Research and Development) – “Improvements to Canada’s operational ocean wave forecasting system in support of offshore activities along the East Coast and Northern waters of Canada”.

The projects’ objectives are:

1) Developing a wave forecasting system that is integrated in a high resolution multi-marine environmental coupled data assimilation and forecast system.

2) Improvements in the short-term wave forecasts with the addition of data assimilation in the wave prediction system using radar altimetry data sources.

3 ) Improvements to wave model physics including an upgrade to the non-linear wave-wave interaction source term.

4 ) Developing a Global Ensemble Wave Prediction System for probabilistic forecasts of sea-states.

Storm Surge forecasting in CanadaStorm Surge modeling research is currently conducted to implement nationally an operational Storm Surge model system called the Regional Deterministic Surge Prediction System (RDSPS). At first, it will be based on the latest version of Dalcoast and run only over Eastern Canada while R&D investigations are conducted to develop new forecasting domains in the coming years. The main short term project objectives under RDSPS are:

1) Implementation of improved physics for the Regional Deterministic Surge Prediction System and increase of forecast lead time to 144 hours (6 days).

2) Developing a high resolution system.

3) Developing a Regional Ensemble Surge Prediction System to produce probabilistic storm surge for lead times of 72h.

Hydrological and water cycle modeling systemDevelopment of an ensemble hydrological forecasting system is progressing, with efforts being focused in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence watershed. Both short-term (2-3 days) and long-term (up to one month) forecasting systems are being assessed. It remains difficult to show that higher resolution ensemble forecasts from the Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) provide better forecasts than the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS), partly because the period over which outputs from both the REPS and the GEPS are available is very short. Reforecast experiments, in particular for high impact events, would be required. In all cases, it is expected that statistical post-processing will be required in order to obtain reliable probabilistic forecasts. A Bayesian methodology is currently being tested for updating a climatological prior distribution based on ensemble forecasts of streamflow.

Environmental Emergency Response modelsSome corrections and improvements were made to the operational atmospheric dispersion models (MLDP0, MLDP1 and MLCD). Work has started to merge the different models to produce an unify dispersion model MLDPn. Work is ongoing to develop a transport and dispersion modeling capability to address the problems of dispersion at the urban scale. The Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling (CUDM) system is a multi-scale system that aims to simulate the mean flow, turbulence and concentration fields in urban areas. The system involves a cascade of meteorological models from the operational regional model to an urbanized meso-scale model. Outputs from the urbanized meteorological model are used to drive a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model running at the urban scale. In turn, urbanSTREAM provides the high resolution wind and turbulence fields (5-15 m resolution) to drive urbanLS, a particle trajectory model.

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4.5.3 Specific products operationally available

Products for the air quality forecast programThe operational output from the RAQDPS consists of hourly concentrations of surface tropospheric ozone, PM2.5, PM10, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen monoxide, and sulphur dioxide, as well as select meteorological fields. The forecast of PM levels is based on primary PM emissions and the chemical formation of secondary PM (sulphate, nitrate, ammonium and secondary organics). Post-processing is performed on this output to provide users with maximum and mean forecasts of ozone, PM2.5 and PM10 in the boundary layer per 6-hour forecast period. These products are available on the web at:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/aqfm/index_e.html,

In 2011, the national Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) forecast program was expanded from 49 sites to 63 sites distributed across Canada. This program, which first began as a pilot project in 2007, provides a means to communicate to the public the level of risk associated with exposure to a mixture of O3, PM2.5, and NO2 pollution. Model output from the RAQDPS as well as processed pollutant observations are provided to forecasters to assist in the preparation of AQHI forecasts. AQHI observations and forecasts are available for all 63 active sites across Canada at:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/airquality/pages/aqhi_locations_e.html.

General information on the AQHI is available at: http://airhealth.ca.

Environmental Emergency Response modelsUpon receiving a request for a nuclear or radiological support from an appropriate WMO Member Country Delegated Authority, the CMC (RSMC Montréal) will provide the following standard set of basic products:

o Three dimensional trajectories starting at 500, 1500 and 3000 m above the ground, with particle locations indicated at synoptic hours

o Time integrated pollutant concentration within the 500 m layer above the ground, in units/m3

o Total deposition (wet and dry) in units/m2 from the release time to the end of the third time period.

The CMC can also provide charts of air concentration estimates for many levels in the atmosphere as well as total surface deposition estimates at various time intervals.

Inverse (adjoint) modelling is provided upon request to support the activities of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, as defined in the WMO Manual on the GDPFS (WMO TD 485).

The CMC is also designated as the Montréal Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre and provides modeling and guidance over its area of responsibility in accordance with ICAO’s Annex 3 on the provision of meteorological services.

Ozone and UV index forecastingCharts of the total ozone forecast and of the UV Index forecast are prepared and transmitted to the Regional Offices. Bulletins giving the forecast UV Index at an ensemble of stations across Canada are also generated and made available to the public. The bulletins can be viewed at:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/textforecast_e.html?Bulletin=fpcn48.cwao

4.5.4 Operational techniques for application of specialized numerical prediction products (MOS, PPM, KF, Expert Systems, etc)


Model Output

An Updateable MOS system (Wilson and Vallée, 2001 and 2002) issued for the statistical post-processing of the direct air-quality model outputs. This air-quality

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http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/textforecast_e.html?Bulletin=fpcn48.cwao

http://airhealth.ca/

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/airquality/pages/aqhi_locations_e.html

Statistics (MOS)

post-processing system currently provides forecasts at more than 200 observation sites for :

Ground-level ozone concentrations at hourly intervals between 0 and 48 hour projection times.

Ground-level particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations at hourly intervals between 0 and 48 hour projection times.

Ground-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations at hourly intervals between 0 and 48 hour projection times.

Equations are valid for the two daily runs (00, 12 UTC).

Automated computer worded forecast: Scribe

As mentioned in 4.3.4.1 the SCRIBE system is used to generate a set of automated plain language air quality forecast products for days 1 and 2. See the following section Weather element matrices.


As mentioned in 4.3.4.1, supplementary weather element matrices have been developed and implemented for concentration of ozone near surface, PM2.5, NO2, as well as PM10, NO and SO2. The time resolution of these matrices is 3 hours, with projection times out to 48 hours. The matrices for the first three (O3, PM2.5 and NO2) are obtained using a statistical interpolation of the increments between model output statistics (MOS) at observation sites and the air quality model predicted concentrations. For the remaining pollutants (PM10, NO and SO2) , the matrices are obtained using the air quality model predicted concentrations.


We are adding more stations, updating and optimizing the 2-D interpolation parameters and conducting experimentation with kriging directly at stations. Alternate non-linear statistical methods are to be optimized and implemented.

4.6 Extended range forecasts (ERF) (10-30 days)4.6.1 Models4.6.1.2 In operation

As of December 1st 2011, the monthly and seasonal forecast system has been upgraded. The new system is based on 10-member ensembles of predictions made with two coupled atmosphere-ocean-land physical climate models, and produces predictions up to a year. For more information about this new system see section 4.7.1. For the monthly predictions, surface air temperature forecasts are issued at the beginning of the months and at mid-months. (Before December 1st, 2011, 4 atmospheric models forced with persisted sea-surface temperature anomalies were used to produce the extended and long range forecasts)

The surface air temperature forecasts are made in doing first an average of the daily temperature as predicted by each of the two model ensembles. The climatology of these model ensembles is then subtracted from the mean forecast monthly temperatures to derive their respective forecast anomalies. These anomalies are then normalized and combined using an arithmetic average. The surface air temperature forecast anomalies are the anomalies of the mean daily temperature measured at the Stevenson screen height (2 metres). Finally the anomalies are divided in three categories (above, near and below the normal). Charts are produced, showing above normal, below normal and near normal temperature categories.


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Extended range weather forecastsThe Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important processes that affect extended range weather forecasts (10-30 days). Several studies have been conducted to assess the impact of the MJO on Canadian weather and to improve our understanding of tropical-extratropical interactions. Lin et al. (2010) studied the influence of the MJO on Canadian wintertime surface air temperature., Lin et al. (2010) analyzed the impact of the MJO on Canadian precipitation. The MJO is found to have a significant impact on the intraseasonal forecast skill of the NAO (Lin and Brunet. 2011).

An intraseasonal hindcast experiment has been conducted using the GEM-clim model for the period of 1985-2008. The objective of this experiment is to determine the potential and practical predictability on intraseasonal time scale. A new monthly forecasting system is constructed based on the operational EPS system for 0-16 day forecasts with improved boundary condition. This system is running in an experimental mode since May 2009. An assessment of the forecast skill with the available data indicates that this new system outperforms the current operational monthly forecasts based on the current seasonal forecasting system of 4-model ensembles.

4.6.2 Operationally available NWP model and EPS ProductsDeterministic forecast of monthly temperature anomaly is available on the Internet:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

4.7 Long range forecasts (LRF) (30 days up to two years)4.7.1 In Operation

On Thursday December 1 2011, the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) has started using its newly developed global coupled seasonal Prediction system for forecasting monthly to multi-seasonal climate conditions. This new system named CanSIPS for Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System replaces both the uncoupled (2-tier) prediction system previously used for producing seasonal forecasts with zero and one month lead times and the CCA statistical Prediction system previously used for forecasts of lead times longer than four months. With CanSIPS, Environment Canada is now able to issue on monthly basis predictions of seasonal climate conditions covering a full year. This represents substantive progress with respect to the previous system. CanSIPS can also skillfully predict the ENSO phenomenon and its influence on the climate up to a year in advance. The development and the implementation of this multi-seasonal forecast system is the result of a close collaboration between CMC and the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma).

System description:

CanSIPS is a multi-model ensemble (MME) system based on two climate models developed by CCCma. It is a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land prediction system, integrated into the CMC operational prediction suite and relying on the CMC data assimilation infrastructure for the atmospheric, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice initial states.

The two models used by CanSIPS are:

- CanCM3 which uses the atmospheric model CanAM3 (also known as AGCM3) with horizontal resolution of about 315 km (t63) and 31 vertical levels, together with the ocean model CanOM4 with horizontal resolution of about 100 km and 40 vertical levels and the CLASS land model. Sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics are explicitly modeled.

- CanCM4 which uses the atmospheric model CanAM4 (also known as AGCM4) also with an horizontal resolution of about 315 km (t63) but with 35 vertical levels. The CanOM4 ocean, CLASS land and sea ice

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components are essentially the same as in CanCM3. Further information on these models is given on the CCCma web site at the following link: http://www.ec.gc.ca/ccmac-cccma/default.asp?lang=En&n=4A642EDE-1

CanSIPS has two modes of operation:

- Assimilation mode: CanSIPS uses a continuous assimilation cycle for 3D atmospheric temperatures, winds and specific humidities as well as sea surface temperatures and sea ice. The assimilated data comes from the six hour CMC 4D-VAR global atmospheric final analyses and the daily CMC SST and sea-ice analyses. Additionally, just before launching the production of the forecasts, an NCEP 3D ocean analysis is assimilated into the CanSIPS ocean model background state. All the 20 members initial conditions are independent but statistically equivalent in the sense that their differences are of the same order than the observation uncertainties.

- Forecast mode: CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Monthly to multi-seasonal forecasts extending to 12 months are issued the first day of each month. Additionally, a one-month forecast is issued at mid-month (15th). Deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for surface temperature and precipitation are produced for each category(above/near/below normal) for seasons made of months 1-3, 2-4, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12. The probabilistic forecasts are done by counting members in each of the three possible forecast categories: below normal, near normal and above normal. The probabilistic forecasts are not calibrated yet but a reliability diagram with error bars is provided with each forecast.

CanSIPS climatology is based on a hindcast period covering 1981-2010 and was produced during phase 2 of the Coupled Historical Forecast Project (CHFP2) research effort. The ensemble size (20) is the same for the forecast and the hindcasts.

More technical information on CanSIPS is available in Merryfield et al., 2011.

4.7.2 Research performed in this field

Seasonal forecasto Hindcasts

Hindcasts were completed for the new coupled seasonal forecast system based on CCCma's CanCM3 and CanCM4 climate models, which was implemented operationally in late 2011 (see 6.1.1). The hindcasts have a range of 12 months, are initialized at the start of every month from 1979 to present, and consist of 10-member ensembles for each of the two models. Monthly and daily model output from these hindcasts is contributing to the Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

o Soil moisture initialization

Several investigations examined the impacts of realistic soil moisture initialization on warm-season sub-seasonal forecast skill. Seasonal hindcasts based on the CanCM3 coupled model contributed to the second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2), which quantified the influence of soil moisture on improving surface temperature and precipitation forecast skill globally for an ensemble of 10 forecast systems (Koster et al. 2011) and also examined the impacts of initialization data quality and soil moisture anomaly magnitude on skill. Drewitt et al. (2012) demonstrated that realistic land initialization also enhances sub-seasonal skill in the CanCM3-based hindcasts over a longer period than was considered by GLACE-2, whereas Alavi et al. (2011) demonstrated that temperature forecast errors tend to increase with the magnitude of soil moisture initialization error in hindcasts that employ climatological soil moisture initialization.

o Tibetan Plateau snow cover forcing

The dominant mode of wintertime surface air temperature variability in North America is found to be associated with snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its adjacent areas in prior autumn. The contribution of the snow cover is comparable to that of ENSO (Lin and Wu 2011a). This mechanism is likely

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http://www.ec.gc.ca/ccmac-cccma/default.asp?lang=En&n=4A642EDE-1

responsible for the extreme winter condition of 2009-2010 (Lin and Wu 2011b). This calls for an improved representation of land processes in GCMs.

o Development of a 1-tier GEM version

Work continues on a coupled version of the GEM NWP forecast system, which will become part of the coupled seasonal forecast system when finalized.

o Stretched-grid prediction model

In Markovic et al. (2010), a variable resolution modelling approach is evaluated with GEM-clim in simulating North American climate and its usefulness in seasonal prediction. Seasonal forecast experiments are conducted with this stretched-grid model, and the results are compared with the uniform-grid model (Markovic et al. 2011).

o Statistical post-processing

In Finnis et al. (2012) compared the effectiveness of non-linear post-processing methods for improving the skill of dynamical seasonal forecasts against that of analogous linear methods. Results indicated that non-linear regression method was better able to extract indices of the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation from coupled model output, while linear approaches were better suited to atmosphere-only model output. Statistically significant predictions at lead times of up to nine months were obtained from model output that showed no forecast skill prior to processing.

4.7.3 Operationally available EPS LRF Products

Deterministic and probabilistic products of seasonal forecast are available on the Internet:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html .

Probabilistic products of seasonal forecasts are available with zero and 1 month lead time. Deterministic products of seasonal forecasts are available with 0, 1, 3, 6 and 9 months lead time. These forecasts are for three months periods and are issued on the first day of each month.

Charts and model output grids for the season 1 are available in real time on Internet at the following site (username and password available on demand, please contact National Inquiry Response Team):

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/saison/glb/cmc_seasonal_fcst_global.html

The forecast digital data are on a 2.5 degrees grid in GRIB1 format. Monthly means of surface air temperature, precipitation, 500 hPb heights, 850 hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure are available for each of the 20 models runs used to prepare the official forecast. Also, hindcast data as well as their climatological averages are available for each model. Please read the information file named README.txt in the directories to get more detailed information.

5. Verification of prognostic products 5.1 Annual verification summaryObjective verification of the operational numerical models is carried out continuously at the CMC. CMC participates in a monthly exchange of NWP verification data following WMO/CBS recommendations originally implemented in 1987. The table on the following page is a summary of the CMC verification scores for 2011 according to the recommended format. This is a subset of scores exchanged with the other participating NWP centres.

The current standards for the exchange were established in 1998. The WMO/CBS Coordination Group on Forecast Verification has updated the standards to include mandatory use of a standardized list of radiosonde observations for verification; a standardized interpolation method; an updated climatology for the calculation of anomaly correlation and the addition of new scores (mean absolute error, root mean square error of the forecast and analysis anomalies, standard deviation of the forecast and analysis fields). Once fully implemented,

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http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/saison/glb/cmc_seasonal_fcst_global.html

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/mainmenu/contact_us_e.html

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

verification data from participating NWP producing centres will be available from the Lead Centre-Deterministic NWP Verification (ECMWF). Work toward implementing the new standards is progressing at CMC, and the data should be available from the LC-DNV web-site in 2012.

Verification summary - 2011Canadian Meteorological Centre

Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) Model (33 km, L80)

Verification against analysis

Area Parameters T+24h T+72h T+120h

00UTC 12UTC 00UTC 12UTC 00UTC 12UTC

N. Hemisphere RMSE (m), GZ, 500 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

8.73.9

9.03.9

24.48.4

24.48.4

47.313.5

47.513.5

Tropics RMSVE (m/s), Wind, 850 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

2.74.3

2.64.3

3.86.8

3.76.9

4.68.5

4.58.5

S. Hemisphere RMSE (m), GZ 500 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

11.04.1

10.94.1

31.19.2

31.19.2

60.415.0

60.015.0

Verification against radiosondes

Network Parameters T+24h T+72h T+120 h00UTC 12UTC 00UTC 12UTC 00UTC 12UTC

N. America RMSE (m), GZ 500 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

10.46.1

10.76.0

25.310.7

25.910.8

47.816.2

48.616.2

Europe RMSE (m), GZ 500 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

12.45.5

11.75.2

25.59.9

24.19.5

49.616.0

47.315.5

Asia RMSE (m), GZ 500 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

13.2 5.9

13.2 5.9

23.49.2

23.19.3

39.112.9

39.013.1

Australia - N.Z. RMSE (m), GZ 500 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

12.55.8

13.66.0

18.69.0

21.29.3

33.713.3

41.513.4

Tropics RMSVE (m/s), Wind, 850 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

4.35.9

4.15.8

5.27.4

4.97.6

5.98.7

5.58.9

N. Hemisphere RMSE (m), GZ 500 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

13.0 5.6

12.8 5.5

26.79.7

26.39.7

49.014.7

48.614.6

S. Hemisphere RMSE (m), GZ 500 hPaRMSVE (m/s), Wind, 250 hPa

13.9 6.1

14.66.2

25.09.7

28.19.9

44.414.4

50.414.8

5.2 Research performed in this field

There has been on ongoing focus on verification of surface and weather element parameters, including temperature, dew-points, winds and cloud cover;

There was also ongoing work in the area of verification of ensemble prediction and high-resolution models.

Exploration of the use of a relational data base for verification purposes as a tool to manipulate observation and forecast data efficiently and to make conditional verification results

Statistical tool for precipitation verification against GPCP analyses

Algorithm for detection, tracking and verification of tropical cyclones

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6. Plans for the future (next 4 years)6.1 Development of the GDPFS6.1.1 Major changes in the operational DPFS which are expecting in this year

Changes in the computer systemsThe existing operational supercomputer, as described in section 2, will changed to:

2 IBM Power7 p775 clusters, each comprised of o 8 super nodes/8192 Power7 cores

o 32.8TB of RAM

o 450TB of usable disk capacity

This Power7 system will be operated in an offsite facility provided by IBM, about 4km away from the main CMC building.

Changes in the Regional Deterministic Prediction System Implementation of the REG-LAM4D analysis/forecast system. It will replace the current operational

REG-LAM3D, with increased resolution of analysis increments to T350. The forecast model resolution will be improved to 10-km. ZWD data from surface GPS sites in North America will be assimilated. Thinning of satellite radiance data may be improved to nearly 75-km (instead of the current 150-km).

Piloting Modelo Increase in horizontal resolution from 55km (720x360) to 33km (800x600)

Limited Area Modelo Increase in horizontal resolution from 15km (619x642) to 10km (980x1012)o Changes in PBL scheme: hysteresis effect in turbulent kinetic energy prognostic equationo Modifications to the scalar roughness length over water surfaceso Increase of the turbulent Prandtl number from 0.85 to 1.0o Implicit treatment of surface fluxeso Include the effect of salinity on the calculation of saturation vapor pressure over the oceano Use of a new sea ice thickness climatologyo Replace diagnostic grid-scale precipitation scheme with a detailed prognostic precipitation scheme

o Changes in the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System The domain covering Western Canada will become officially operational. A 0-42 hours forecast will be

produced twice a day. All domains now use the GEM 4.4.0 version, including the ‘growing’ orography used during the first

forecast hour to reduce the initial spin-up chock

Changes in the Regional (Gulf of St-Lawrence) coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice Prediction System The horizontal resolution has been increased from 15 to 10 km. The piloting model, the regional deterministic prediction system, has also been upgraded as mentioned

above

Changes in the Regional Deterministic Air Quality Prediction System Implementation of an objective surface ozone analysis Increase in the resolution model from 15 to 10 km

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Improvement emission sets

Changes in the Nowcasting system Include UMOS dew point temperatures Make use of Limited Area Model West Window at 2.5km Improve rules for probability of precipitation nowcasting Verification system extended to include visibilities and precipitation typing Update of Nowcasting dictionary

Changes in the Wave forecast system (WAMs) Improvements of the WAM model core

o Better parallelizationo Additional sources terms and new constraints of some wave and wind parameterso Revised formulation of the whitecapping dissipation term

WAM forecasts driven by the regional 10 km atmospheric model will be produced 4 times per day instead of 2.

Implementation of a nested WAM domain over the Gulf of St-Lawrence that will take into account the ice cover predicted by the newly implemented regional coupled atmos-ocean-ice system.

Implementation of an expanded WAM domain over the North Atlantic (now includes Hudson Bay) as well as a new domain over the Arctic ocean.

Changes or new implementation of other operational systems Implementation of an all new post-processing system. This major task aims at replacing the main CMC

post-processing system from which a large number of products are issued

6.1.2 Major changes in the operational DPFS which are envisaged within the next 4 years

Computer Systems A complete overhaul of the archiving system is forecasted for 2013-2014

Replacement of the Power7 supercomputer in 2014-15

Dynamical cores The vertical discretization for all GEM models will use the Charney-Phillips vertical staggering Implementation of the Semi-Lagrangian Inherently Conserving and Efficient (SLICE) approach is being

studied for tracer transport Implementation of the Yin-Yang horizontal grid for the global model

Physical parameterizations Reduction of warm bias in near-surface forecasts

o Better treatment of the connection between the atmosphere and the surfaceo Improved boundary layer schemeo A simple precipitation feedback on SSTs added

Reduction of cold bias near the tropopause Addition of thermal tendencies to the gravity-wave drag scheme Improved treatment of cloud/radiation feedbacks

Assimilation

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An En-Var approach to data assimilation is under investigation and should replace the current 4D-Var approach. The forecast error covariance matrix will be computed from the ensemble of short range forecasts of the EnKF system.

The variational assimilation system will be adapted to the Charney-Phillips vertical staggered coordinate. Increased vertical resolution from radiosonde and aircraft, combined with the 4D information available

from radiosonde data (contained in BUFR bulletins) will be incorporated in operational analyses. Work is underway to assimilate direct broadcast AMSUA/MHS data from the EARS, AP-RARS and SA-

RARS networks. Implementation should follow rapidly once the R&D test will be completed. The assimilation of ozone sensitive channels from AIRS and IASI is envisioned, coupled with an ozone

analysis replacing climatology. Assimilation of CrIS and ATMS radiances from NPP. Implement revision of observation error for all

radiances. Assuming arrival of post-doctoral fellows by mid 2012, develop assimilation of surface sensitive

channels over land from infrared and/or microwave radiances Implementation of the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS). Enhancement of ocean surface wind and ocean current analyses and forecast through data assimilation

into operational models. Data from new satellites will be assimilated: NPP will provide data from CrIS and ATMS, and Metop-B

data will also be assimilated. Data from AMSR-2 on GCOM-W will be used (SST, Ice) as work will be initiated to assimilate data from ADM-Aeolus once available.

Changes specific to the Global Deterministic Prediction System (winter 2013) Model

o Increase in the horizontal resolution: from 33km (800x600) to 25km (1024x800)o New vertical discretization: Charney-Phillipso Changes in the orographic blocking scheme: enhancement of drag coefficient as a function of

stability and of the direction of the incident flow (Wells 2008, Vosper 2009)o Changes in PBL scheme: hysteresis effect in turbulent kinetic energy prognostic equation

Assimilationo Increase in the horizontal resolution of the 4D-Var inner loops to T180 and optimization of the

variational code, use of the vertical staggering in the non-linear modelo Implement additional will be CSR data for GOES E/W and MTSAT-2 from F17 and F18 additional

AIRS and IASI channels, and AVHRR polar winds; modify the bias correction predictors in the infrared as originally planned

o Start testing the assimilation of CrIS and ATMS radiances o Modification to the assimilation of radiosonde humidity observations and modification to the vertical

interpolator used for RTTOVo Modification to the processing of radiosonde data to take into account the 4D trajectory of the

measurements, which are becoming available as part of the code transition to BUFR. This will be done for all the assimilation systems at EC and vertical resolution of the data will be increased.

o Changes specific to the Global Deterministic Prediction System (Fall 2013 and beyond)

Implementation of the Yin-Yang horizontal discretization to eliminate the pole problems The horizontal grid spacing will be increased to ~12-15 km A reformulation of the boundary layer parameterization and its connection with the surface will be

achieved Cloud and precipitation processes will be improved An option to advect tracers conservatively will be added

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A high-resolution external surface prediction system will be coupled with the atmospheric component The deterministic forecasts will be considered as a high-resolution control member of an ensemble

system Increased vertical resolution in the lower troposphere Surface fields will come from the CALDAS system

Changes in the Global EPS (winter 2013) Forecast model

o The number of level will increase from 58 to 74 (top at 2 hPa)o Forecast extended to 32 days once a week

Assimilationo The data thinning will be reducedo The sequential algorithm will be modified to permit the assimilation of more datao The horizontal resolution will increase from 100 km to 45 kmo The number of level will increase from 58 to 74 (top at 2 hPa)

o Changes in the Monthly forecast system (winter 2013) A new monthly forecasting system based on the operational Global EPS system for 0-16 day forecast

will be implemented

Changes in the Global EPS (Fall 2013 and beyond) The Yin-Yang grid to be used The horizontal resolution will increase to 45 km To permit the use of ensemble statistics for the background term in the variational approach, it will be

attempted to raise the EPS model top to 0.1 hPa Stochastic physics will likely replace the multi-parameterization approach. Surface fields will come from the CALDAS system

Changes specific to the regional EPS The horizontal resolution will be at 15 km in 2013 Reduction of the stochastic physics influence in the lower troposphere Will do data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter in 2015

Changes specific to the Regional Deterministic Prediction System Forecast system

o New vertical discretization: Charney-Phillips.o Model top pilotingo Vertical resolution increase in the lower troposphereo Inclusion of an adapted version of the Milbrandt-Yau 2-moment microphysic schemeo Reformulated boundary layer parameterizationo Minor changes to physics packageo Eventually this system will be replace by the National LAM 2.5 km resolution over Canada

o Changes in the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction Systemo Replace multi-grid system with a single grid (2.5-km horizontal grid spacing) covering all of Canada

and the Arctic (with 2-4 runs per day, 36/42 h). Will have its own assimilation system in 2015 Increase the number of vertical levels from 58 to 72, with emphasis on the PBL Implement upper-boundary nesting from the piloting model (the RDPS)

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Changes to PBL scheme (consistent with changes to RDPS) Modified microphysics scheme (prognostic graupel density, improved aerosol treatment for droplet

nucleation, prognostic snow-liquid ratio) Initial land-surface fields from high-resolution land-surface scheme (CaLDAS)

Changes in the seasonal to multi-seasonal forecast system Implementation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere ensemble forecast system for multi-seasonal forecasts

based on the GEM-NEMO modeling system

Calibration of the probabilistic products

New forecast products for SST, Niño indices, sea ice, etc

Changes specific to the Nowcasting System Replace PubTools by Integrated Weighted Model (INTW) Making use of composite Precip-ET at 2 km resolution for radar Introduce new version at 4 km resolution of McGill Algorithm Precipitation Lagrangien Extrapolation

(MAPLE) Make use of lightning data at the same resolution (2km) as the radar data. Make use of MAPLE in

extrapolating lightning data Migrate from a point based system to area based in the Next Generation Forecast System

Changes specific to the Air Quality system Migration of the RAQDPS to GEMv4 which includes the Charney-Phillips vertical staggering coordinate. Use of a global air quality deterministic prediction system for piloting the RAQDPS meteorological and

chemical variables Making use of the RAQDPS for the production of global ozone analyses Making use of the RAQDPS for the production of UV-index forecasts Making use of surface ozone analyses as initial conditions within the RAQDPS

Changes in the wave forecast system Improvements of the Wave model core

o Better parallelizationo Additional source terms and new constraints on some wave and wind parameterso Revised formulation of the whitecapping dissipation termo Introduction of wave-ice interactiono Introduction of wave-current interactiono Introduction of data assimilation

Development and implementation of a Global Deterministic Wave Prediction System for 0-10 day forecasts.

Development and implementation of a Global Ensemble Wave Prediction System for 0-10 day forecasts. The integration of Canada's 20 members in a North American Ensemble is being investigated under NAEFS. NOAA and the US NAVY currently each contribute 20 members to the super ensemble.

Investigate impacts of coupling with other systems such as the atmospheric, ocean, and ice models on wave forecast skills and other component forecast skills.

Changes in the Storm Surge forecast system Improvements of the Surge model core

o Introduction of non-linear termso Increase in resolution

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o Introduction of tide-wave-surge interactions Development and Implementation of a Regional Ensemble Prediction System for 0-3 days Extension of the deterministic forecast lead time to 144h (6 days)

Changes or new implementation of other operational systems Implementation of Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) based on the Global EPS Implementation of North Atlantic regional analysis and forecast (sea ice) Implementation of a global ocean-ice data assimilation system (based on Mercator system) Implementation of a fully global atmos-ocean-ice forecast system Implementation of an external high-resolution (100 m) land surface prediction system Implementation of a hydrological forecasting system for the Great-Lakes and St. Lawrence basins Implementation of extended range forecast system (45 days) based on the Global EPS. Implementation of a WAM EPS

Radar QC/QPE Project Technology development prototype for the antenna mounted radar receiver and data transfer to the

signal processor which are required for dual polarization upgrade of the radar network

Implementation of dual-polarization for the Environment Canada Exeter radar

Technical transfer of radar processing software cycle 2 for severe weather detection and extrapolation.

Technical transfer of new data quality control algorithms for radar data (software cycle 3) which include dual-polarization applications

Canadian HUB Airport Nowcasting System (CAN-Now) Development and implementation of an automated first guess TAF production system which has a

forecaster in the loop methodology and which is based on climatology, conditional climatology, nowcasting output and model output.

Technical transfer of new algorithms for ceiling and visibility prediction

Technical transfer of algorithms for wind gusts and runway visual range

Development of enhanced applications for Pearson nowcasting products to TAF production

Specification of TAF production requirements for the NinJo consortium

Technical transfer of latest lightning forecasting algorithm to CMC

Fog Research and Modeling Project (FRAM) Technical transfer of new fog and icing detection algorithms for GOES satellites to the operational

workstation

Technical transfer to CMC of new visibility algorithm for application in NWP models

Research Support Desk Project (RSD) Technical transfer of requirements for meteorological objects to the forecasting workstation NinJo

Performance metrics for utility of area-based, met-object approach to summer thunderstorm nowcasting

Development and implementation of an area-based, met-object approach for winter storm nowcasting

Technical transfer of nationally consistent tools for tornado rating and classification

Development of infrastructure for supporting mesoscale meteorological monitoring requirements of UNSTABLE 2013 and Pan-Am 2015

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6.2 Planned Research Activities in NWP, Nowcasting and Long-range Forecasting6.2.1 Planned Research activities in NWP6.2.1.1 Data assimilation

Global ensemble Kalman filter The use of a less-restrictive data (observations) thinning in the EnKF data-assimilation cycle will be investigated. This may require the development of a multi-scale EnKF analysis system, sampling of systematic errors in forward operators as well as changes to the bias-correction system.

Regional (continental) LAM 4D-var assimilation (LAM4D)Work started recently in research mode to adapt the EnKF code to a limited-area version for regional data assimilation where for instance, horizontal resolution is much higher than the global EnKF. We expect this first version to be running by the end of 2012 and start evaluating its usefulness for applications to REPS and RDPS (intercomparisons against the 4D-Var regional system RDPS are envisaged). Along the way, the regional EnVar will also be intercompared for such applications but mostly for RDPS operational purposes.

Local LAMsA limited-area Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is currently under development for research purposes. It is a limited-area version of the operational global EnKF code and to be applied for kilometric scale radar data assimilation. The first version is planned to be running by the summer of 2012 for assimilating conventional data and radial wind radar data for research test cases. The goal of this research project is to establish the applicability and usefulness of this approach for multivariate coupling at the convective scale.

GPS (radio occultation reflections)A project on the analysis of sea surface reflections observed during GPS radio occultation was continued. The objective is to extract geophysical information relevant to the low troposphere, with potential applications to meteorological data assimilation. An algorithm for the extraction of supplementary information on the refractivity in the lower troposphere was proposed (Boniface et al, 2011). Further quantification of the benefit obtained from this information (signals have suffered refraction and reflection), above that obtained from standard processing (signals have only refracted) is underway.

Microwave and infrared vertical sounders surface channels radiance assimilationNew surface emissivity databases are now available with RTTOV-10 in the infrared domain as well as revised emissivity modeling over ocean for microwave radiances. In the infrared and microwave region of the spectrum, the work on the assimilation of surface sensitive channels over land has yet to be initiated. Post-docs have been identified, with arrival in second part of 2012.. The selection of channels for CrIS is done, and formats were tested with simulated data. NPOES ATMS (microwave) will also be assimilated operationally. The work on CrIS and ATMS should start in fall of 2012.

Cloudy infrared radianceA methodology to assimilate cloudy infrared radiances was demonstrated in a 1D-var context and is well adapted to hyperspectral sensors such as AIRS and IASI (Heilliette and Garand, 2007). This methodology is now implemented in the 4D-var assimilation system, with cloud parameters estimated within the global minimization problem. Positive results obtained at the ECMWF (McNally 2009) using a similar but less sophisticated approach suggests that it is possible to get a positive impact using this approach by restraining the assimilation of cloud-affected radiances to near overcast situations. Furthermore, enhancements in the cloud detection and characterization procedure used in AIRS and IASI quality control, are expected to improve our cloudy radiances assimilation system. In the case of IASI radiances, the use of sub-pixel information provided by the AVHRR imager (using the cluster radiance analysis included with level 1.c data) will help to select homogeneous field of views for which our simplified cloud modeling is more likely to succeed. Different quality control setups were tried in 4D-Var assimilation experiments and the results obtained are a blend of positive and negative impacts with an overall slightly negative impact for the best configuration tried. New experiments are planned to find an optimum quality control.

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Data assimilation for climate applicationsA new project has begun to develop an operational carbon flux estimation system. This new system has beed dubbed the EC-CAS (Environment Canada Carbon Assimilation System). It is being led by Saroja Polavarapu with participation from scientists in the Climate Research Division and in partnership with the Canadian Space Agency and university-based researchers (Prof. Dylan Jones of U Toronto and Prof. John Lin of U Waterloo). This system will be based on existing EC platforms, namely, the GEM operational weather forecasting model, and the Ensemble Kalman Filter which is the operational Ensemble Prediction System. The EC-CAS will use an Ensemble Kalman Smoother approach with an augmented state to estimate surface fluxes at some time lag from the present. The lag is necessary because it takes time for carbon emissions from the surface to reach the atmospheric locations where they are measured. The coming year will see an implementation of the EC-CAS and bench-marking against Bayesian Synthesis Inversion calculations using ground-based observations only. At the same time, CO2 observations from GOSAT (JAXA) will be prepared for assimilation. OSSEs in the context of PHEMOS (Polar Highly Elliptical / Molniya Orbit Science) will be performed for an instrument proposed by York University as an add-on to the Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) mission to determine the value of this highly unusual (molniya) orbit configuration

Chemical Surface data assimilationResearch continues on how to better integrate surface regional Objective Analyses to improve air quality forecasts. Many issues are being investigated including vertical projections of surface analysis increments, chemical imbalances caused by assimilation of different but related species (e.g. ozone and NO2), best strategies related to speciation of PM2.5 in the assimilation process, dynamical bias corrections, etc. On the other hand, the best way to combine surface assimilation with satellite assimilation is also a major scientific and technical problem which needs to be addressed through ensemble Kalman filter methods, variational analyses or both combined (EN-VAR). Finally, very high spatio-temporal resolution surface data assimilation will be addressed in this context using GEM-MACH-LAM 2.5 km resolution configuration.

3D-var Chemical data assimilationo Migrate global chemical data assimilation capability (3D-var chem) to the upper air unified (3D-var,

EnKF and En-var) assimilation module under development at ARMA.

o Development of an operational ozone data acquisition system which include the treatment of SBUV2 partial column, GOME-2 total column retrievals and IASI/AIRS ozone sensitive radiance channels.

o Modification of the EC task sequencer for including the assimilation of constituents

o Expansion of the chemical data assimilation system to other radiatively consituents in GEM.

o Perform 3D-var assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth.(AOD)

o Development of a regional chemical assimilation using the ensemble kalman filter approach over a restricted domain

o Development of surface ozone assimilation and expansion to other contituents including NO2 and PM 2.5.

o Use of satellite data to evaluate and improve emissions input for EC’s AQ models

o Implementation of species monitoring for evaluation against independent measurements including ACE, OSIRIS, MIPAS and ozonesondes datasets.

Sea-ice analysisResearch is being conducted to improve the variational data assimilation system for producing analyses of sea ice conditions and for initializing coupled models that include sea ice. The focus of this work is on the use of a sea-ice model to provide the background state within the data assimilation cycle (instead of persistence) and the assimilation of new observation types. The new observation types include AVHRR

44

visible/infra-red data and synthetic aperture radar data from the RadarSat-2 satellite. Research is also being conducted on approaches to automatically compute the characteristics values (also referred to as “tiepoints”) required by sea-ice retrieval algorithms and simple observation forward operators for assimilating satellite observations

PCW missionCSA is proposing, with EC as main user/partner, the Polar Communications and Weather mission in 2018 timeframe. This mission will provide seamless communications (Ka and X band, possibly UHF) and satellite imagery over the entire region 50-90 N from two satellites in HEO (High Elliptical Orbit) 12-h orbits. Phase A was completed in March 2011, and provides a comprehensive description of the various components of the mission. Orbit related trade-offs were studied (Trishchenko and Garand, 2011, Trishchenko et al, 2011).

Another study evaluated the advantage of the PCW satellite system in comparison to existing constellation of low orbiting satellites (Trishchenko and Garand, 2012).The Science Team is now proposing a 16-h orbit characterized by three apogees, which minimizes radiation hazards substantially in comparison to the 12-h orbit Molniya originally proposed. The main meteorological payload is an advanced 20-channel imager similar to those planned for the next generation of GEO satellites (MTG, GOES-R). Phase-A studies to evaluate other potential payloads (referred to as PHEOS) such as a UV-VIS-NIR imager and a hyperpectral infrared sounder will be completed in March 2012. Research activities at EC focus on demonstrating the technical feasibility and merit of the mission for meteorology. In particular an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) was developed and allowed evaluating the impact on forecasts of polar winds from PCW (publication planned in 2012). Simulated PCW radiance datasets were developed to evaluate retrieval techniques in the Arctic. The U. Wisconsin software to derive winds from tracked cloud or water vapor features from satellite imagery was implemented at EC, with the intent to use it with high resolution simulated data from 2.5 km model output. A one-year contract was given out to evaluate the characteristics of the future PCW data processing center under the responsibility of EC (Szejwach, 2011). A socio-economic study is under way with contract given to Euroconsult (report due in May 2012). CSA is studying means to realize the mission in Public Private Partnership (PPP). The target for approval by Treasury Board is 2013 budget.

Land data assimilationSeveral aspects of CaLDAS will be improved in the next few years. First, significant progress is expected on the inclusion of space-based data in CaLDAS. Data from SMOS, SMAP, and SSM/I or AMSR are expected to provide much more information on soil moisture and snow. The use of data from VIIRS will also be examined for the specification of vegetation characteristics. An incremental version of CaLDAS will be coded and tested to provide land surface initial conditions for the new high-resolution prediction systems that are expected to become operational. These include the 2.5-km national system for short-range deterministic prediction, and the 200-m National external land surface prediction system. Finally, a joint-strategy will be developed and tested to jointly assimilate both surface-based and space-based observations.

6.2.1.2 Modeling

Dynamic coresConcerning numerical methods, the grid-point and spectral discretizations of the shallow-water equations will be compared at high-resolution with the Yin-Yang grid. Moreover, the icosahedral approach using finite volume is also being developed. Conservative advection is being studied.

Physical parameterizations Research is planned to update the radiative transfer scheme through;

o The use of global maps of band dependent surface emissivity and albedo

o Improved parameterization of effective radius for ice crystals and

o Vertically varying trace gases climatology

45

Research is planned on the production of an ozone analysis as well as on the impact of its use in the NWP model.

Research is also underway to improve the grid-scale precipitation scheme; in particular we plan to develop and test a multi-moment microphysics (prognostic precipitation) scheme suitable for mesoscale configurations (10-30 km horizontal grid spacing).

Major research efforts are towards the vertical diffusion and the shallow convection

The planetary boundary layer – lowest 100 to 3000 m – is obviously very important and yet one of the most challenging atmospheric layers of the model. Research will be performed to revise and improve the representation of subgrid-scale boundary layer process in the Canadian GEM model.

Research will be performed to improve the physics of the continental GEM model at ~10 km grid spacing, as well as on the tuning of the physics necessary when the resolution of a model is increased.

Research will be performed to further improved the land surface models, especially the hydrological component of the new M-ISBA scheme. Research will also be done to improve the coupling between the surface and the low-level atmosphere.

Ensemble forecasting Global EPS

o Initialization is currently performed using a digital filter finalization. The use of an incremental algorithm will be investigated.

o It will be attempted to reduce model spin-up after the data-assimilation. This will likely involve a closer link between the model and the data assimilation.

o Monthly EPS forecasts might be based on initial conditions of the global EnKF. In particular for the second forecast week, the global EPS will benefit from the research on the monthly system.

Regional EPS

o A regional EPS will be piloted from the global EPS. Aspects of the joint system will be investigated.o Using an ensemble approach, research in high-resolution modeling will be performed to better

assess the capability of models to predict severe thunderstorm triggering and development. o Research on stochastic parameterizations to better represent model uncertainties will be

undertaken. In particular, stochastic representation of model error at and near the surface will be investigated.

o Urban meteorology modeling system In the context of the CRTI (CBRN - Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear - Research and Technology Initiative) project, the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) continue to develop an urban version of the LAM model with an urban surface scheme (the Town Energy Balance – TEB) to better represent the effects of large cities for reliable prediction of flows and dispersion in the complex urbanized environments of populated North American cities (Mailhot et al., 2006). Further development will be done by taking advantage of the Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities (EPiCC) Network. This network has provided urban measurements in the Montreal and Vancouver areas on a continuous basis for a period of two years, together with remotely-sensed data for land cover and urban structures, which will allow the validation of model aspects which have not been tested extensively so far.

External surface-layer prediction systemAn extension of the external land surface prediction system will be designed, coded, and tested. The external land surface prediction system provides very detailed forecasts of land surface variables such as surface temperatures, soil moisture, snow, and of near-surface air temperature and winds as well. But this approach is limited by the fact that the land surface model is forced using lower-resolution models at a level very near the surface, typically a few tens of meters above the surface canopy. The new external surface-

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layer prediction system would allow this merging between high and low-resolution systems to occur higher above the surface, at a few hundreds of meters. Based on this, the surface layer would freely evolved, making possible the downscaling of surface-layer winds as well as air temperature, humidity, and turbulence. This kind of system is relevant for several applications, including of course near-surface meteorology, but also wind energy, air quality, dispersion modeling, and urban meteorology.

The regional coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice systemFollowing the recent implementation at CMC of the coupled Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) system, future developments focus on coupled GEM-NEMO configurations. Current efforts focus on two GEM-NEMO coupled models: for the Great Lakes and the GSL. It is planned that these projects will dovetail into a single regional coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean system for METAREAs covering the Arctic and North Atlantic and Canadian inland waters. Within close coordination with CONCEPTS and the French operational oceanographic group Mercator-Ocean, regional ocean data assimilation will be developed.

Another area of focus is the tuning of the sea ice model parameters as well as sea ice forecasting case studies in order to improve the forecasts. Current developments also include:

Specific validation tools for the ice edge.

Calculation of the ice internal pressure (important information for navigation).

Bidirectional coupling with a METAREA pan-Arctic GEM-LAM.

The METAREA project will also benefit from a collaboration with Bruno Tremblay from McGill University (as part of a BREA project) to improve the formulation of the model sea ice rheology (by using a different yield curve and/or flow rule). This should allow better simulations of landfast ice, leads and pressure ridge formation. Furthermore, numerical aspects will also be improved as we have a project in collaboration with Los Alamos National Lab to implement a Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov solver using IMplicit-Explicit (IMEX) techniques.

The global coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice modeling system

Upcoming steps for the global ocean-ice forecast system include:

Use of 3DVAR global ice analyses in place of CMC operational ice analyses

Improved blending of ocean and ice analyses

Improved SST assimilation in marginal ice zone

Produce daily analyses

For global GEM-NEMO coupling, upcoming steps are:

Verification of medium range forecasts with 33km GEM coupled to 1/4deg NEMO;

Evaluation of 1deg GEM coupled to 1deg NEMO under development for monthly forecasts

Air Quality systemRegional GEM-MACH

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Efforts in the coming years will focus on the following improvements to the forecast of the Regional GEM-MACH:

o Develop GEM-MACH chemistry nesting capabilityo Aqueous phase chemistry improvements, including the KPP solver, process treatment for the cold

season, size-dependant treatment of particulate matter precipitation scavengingo Improved inorganic heterogeneous chemistryo Improved volatile organic compound speciation and secondary organic aerosol formation processes

(with a focus on emissions from “mobile” sources such as automobiles)o Better emission using updated inventory, including sea salts and fugitive dusto Improvement of species vertical diffusion and PBL mixing schemeso Development and implementation of species shallow and deep convective mixing schemeo Implementation and evaluation of species mass conservation schemeso Improve to the lateral chemical boundary conditionso Better aerosols formation processeso Forest fires will be taken into account on a daily basis. To do that, satellite information and forest fire

models will be usedo KPP gas-phase chemistry numerical solvero Improvement to the gas phase mechanism

Global GEM-MACH Efforts in the coming years will focus on the following improvements to the forecast of the Global GEM-MACH;.

o Migration of GEM-MACH-Global to GEM-MACHv4 (operational chemical librairies)o Merging of stratospheric (LINOZ) and tropospheric chemistryo Incorporation of the GRAHM mercury modelo Include the production o SO2 from DMSo The capability to include elevated area-source emissions as inputs will be added (to allow forest fire

/ wildfire inputs to the model)o Post-processing: Aerosol Optical Depth calculations from aerosol mass will be added and

compared to obso Tests of an improved inorganic heterogeneous chemistry solver will be completedo Parameterizations for lightning NOx generation will be added, with transfer to regional GEM-

MACH15 if successfulo Tests of the generation of initial and boundary conditions for GEM-MACH15 will be carried outo New parameterizations for Black Carbon aging will be implementedo Implementation of heterogeneous chemistry in LINOZ

Local GEM-MACH (within 2 years)

An important research activity will be the completion and research-mode testing of the high-resolution 2.5km resolution model, GEM-MACH, with the addition of nesting capabilities for this resolution, and evaluations against several measurement intensives

Longer range (> 2 years) outlook for Environment Canada’s AQ forecasting Research programThe broad direction for GEM-MACH is to create an operational cascade of forecasts in analogy to the operational weather forecast, using the same modelling platform to create global AQ forecasts, which in turn drive regional, and in turn local/high resolution forecasts. A topic of particular interest and a direction for future research are investigations into feedbacks between AQ and weather. The current configuration of

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GEM-MACH only allows the weather to drive the chemistry but the impact of the radiative feedback from ozone on medium range temperature forecast will continue. The radiative feedback from aerosols, as well as role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei is well known. Future work will focus on evaluating these feedbacks and the potential for the on-line model to improve the weather forecast through full two-way coupling between weather and air-quality portions of the model. Improvement of the methane oxidation scheme in GEM using methane analyses and its impact on water vapour will be investigated. Chemical data assimilation work will continue, with the aim of assimilation systems being constructed for aerosols, tropospheric CO and ozone, and other air-quality constituents. The extension to assimilating radiances from remote sounding instruments is envisaged

6.2.2 Planned Research activities in Nowcasting

Radar QC/QPE Projecto Ongoing research on application development of radar processing software (e.g. target

identification, QPE) with dual-polarization utilization

o Ongoing research into radar QC/QPE methods

o Participation in the international radar QC intercomparsion project

o Canadian HUB Airport Nowcasting System (CAN-Now)Ongoing research into improved nowcasting techniques using satellite, radar, lightning, surface observations and new extrapolation algorithms. This will include further development of blending systems and of performance metrics.

Science and Nowcasting for Olympics Weather – Vancouver 2010 (SNOW V10)Lead and support WMO initiatives in nowcasting through chairmanship of the WWRP/WGNR and other WMO working groups including support of the workshop on bridging mesoscale modeling and nowcasting, support of the 2012 symposium on nowcasting, support for a regional training centre for nowcasting in Brazil, Heuristic Nowcasting workshop, etc.

Fog Research And Modeling Project (FRAM)Ongoing research into the relationship between visibility, blowing snow and precipitation conditions.

Ongoing research into instrument systems which could be used to measure light precipitation in Arctic regions, including snow, drizzle and fog.

Research Support Desk Project (RSD)Ongoing research to test new techniques for nowcasting summer and winter high impact weather events.

Significant focus will be on the further development and implementation of meteorological objects and the paradigm change to operationally forecasting events and areas versus points.

Ongoing research to optimize the human-machine mix as applied to operational forecasting.

6.2.3 Planned Research Activities in Long range Forecasting

Improvement of monthly forecastingResearch will continue to be performed toward a seamless long range forecasting system from day to weeks.

Improvement of seasonal forecasting Environment Canada’s Seasonal to multi-seasonal forecast capabilities improved dramatically in late 2011 with the implementation of the one-tier, two-model CanSIPS system (see 6.1.1). In addition to developing an array of new forecast products enabled by this coupled model-based system, efforts have begun to

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further improve the forecasting system itself. Avenues for improvement currently under consideration include

o increasing ensemble size from 20 (10 per model) to 40 (20 per model)o snow initialization based on real-time analysiso addition of a third coupled model (currently uinder development) based on EC’s GEM NWP

atmospheric model and the NEMO ocean model

Tropical-extratropical interactionsThe tropical convective activities associated with the MJO excite Rossby waves that propagate to the extratropical latitudes and influence the Canadian weather. The objective of this study is to identify possible links between extreme weather conditions in Canada and tropical organized convections. For example, heavy precipitation in British Columbia can be related to an intensified low pressure system in the northeast Pacific which can be a result of deepening of the Aleutian low by a tropical forcing associated with the MJO. What is the mechanism and how it is represented in a dynamical model is crucial to improve extended range forecasts of those extreme weather systems.

Stratosphere influenceBesides the tropics, another important source of skill for extended weather forecasts may come from the stratosphere. An interesting aspect is the downward propagation of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) signal from the stratosphere, which may influence the AO variability and weather conditions on the ground up to two months after. It is planned that an assessment is done for GEM-strato and its impact on weather predictions beyond 10 days.

GEM-LAM for climate applicationsWork over the past 3 years has culminated in a new Canadian Regional Climate Model, CanRCM4. This model is based on the GEM-LAM dynamical core and the 4th generation atmospheric climate physics package (CanAM4). This physics package is exactly the same as that used in the current global climate model, CanCM4 and its extension to include global biogeochemistry (CanESM2). The new regional model is being run at 45km resolution over three different domains (North America, Africa, Arctic) as part of the World Climate Research Programme's CORDEX intercomparison. These results will also be contributed to the IPCC Climate Science Assessment currently in preparation. Once the 45km resolution downscaling runs are completed, they will be repeated at 22km resolution. A novel procedure has been developed to produce driving boundary condition data, constrained by reanalysis during the historical period, which includes all of the model-specific tracer variables required by the climate physics package (notably radiatively active aerosols and trace gases).

6.2.4 Planned Research Activities in Specialized Numerical Predictions

Statistical guidanceThere is a plan to expend the UMOS set of guidance to include dew point temperature, blowing snow, probability of precipitation amounts, and type.

Wind energy forecastingThere is an externally-funded research program that focuses on improving low-level wind forecasting at high resolution. Different aspects are being studied: momentum and heat fluxes, vertical resolution, development of a very low top system with lid nesting, the use of small horizontal domain and ensemble approaches.

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