gecs for cambridge2_ppt [compatibility mode]
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The global body for professional accountants
The Global Economy.
The global body for professional accountants
1. Introducing GECS.
The global body for professional accountants
ABOUT THE SURVEY
• World’s largest survey of accountants
• Running since Feb 2009, into 9th Q
• Average sample: 1,400
• 52% - 48% OECD/Non-OECD split• Produces 2 key indices + ‘impacts’
The global body for professional accountants
“LOL !!! Everyone and theirdog has ad hoc statisticson the global economy.”
ACCA staff Internal email, Nov. 2008
The global body for professional accountants
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2
The global body for professional accountants
#’S WE STILL CAN’T GET RIGHT
• Anything on SME, unlisted businesses
• Flows v. stock of lending
• Anything ‘global’ i.e. non-OECD
• Meaningful disaggregations
The global body for professional accountants
“You’re not economists.”
-Journalist
The global body for professional accountants
2. An overview.
The global body for professional accountants
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Note: OECD GDP estimates for Q4 2010 and Q1 2011 are official OECD forecasts as of OECD
Economic Outlook, Nov 2010.
OECD GDP (left axis)
Simple OECD GDP forecast based on GECS (left axis)
ACCA Confidence Index (Right Axis)
Stimulus
Green Shoots PIIGSRevolution
The global body for professional accountants
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Africa
Asia-Pacific
South Asia
CEE
Americas
Middle East
Western Europe
Stimulus
Green Shoots PIIGS Revolution
The global body for professional accountants
3. Disaggregations.
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The global body for professional accountants
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Senior Managers
All others
The global body for professional accountants
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
Confidence - male
Confidence - female
The global body for professional accountants
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011
Rest of the Economy
SME
The global body for professional accountants
4. Opportunities andThreats.
The global body for professional accountants
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011
Value-added only
Mix of value-added and cost-cuttingCost-cutting only
The global body for professional accountants
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011
New markets : Non-OECD
New Markets: OECD
Supply chain: Non-OECD
Supply chain: OECD
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The global body for professional accountants
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Q1 2009 Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2009Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010Q4 2010 Q1 2011
OECD
Non-OECD
Capital Spending
The global body for professional accountants
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011
OECD
Non OECD
Rising operating costs
The global body for professional accountants
5. The fiscal picture.
The global body for professional accountants
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2011
Rise sharply
Rise moderately
Remain the same
Fall moderately
Fall sharply
OECDCountries
The global body for professional accountants
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2011
Dangerous overspend
Dangerous underspend
The global body for professional accountants
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2011
Rise sharply
Rise moderatelyRemain the same
Fall moderately
Fall sharply
Non-OECDCountries
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The global body for professional accountants
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2011
Dangerous overspend
Dangerous underspend
The global body for professional accountants
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%35%
40%
45%
50%Dangerous overspend
Dangerous underspend
The global body for professional accountants
Thanks!
The global body for professional accountants
CONTACTManos [email protected]
020 7059 5619www.accaglobal.com