general assembly, product management final project - pebble app store and wearable devices (december...
DESCRIPTION
Final project for Product Management class at General Assembly (https://generalassemb.ly/education/product-management/new-york-city) in December 2013. My project was focused on doing a post evaluation (future scenario of review in July 2014) of a scenario where Pebble launched an app store for Pebble watch apps, and an application to connect other wearable devices through Pebble. Areas covered include: product life cycle, market analysis, inference ladder, MVPs, stakeholder analysis, business case, milestones, OKRs, business justifications, forecast, product page, storyboard, wireframes, user persona, feature prioritization - stack rank and MoSCoW, objective tree, metrics / KPIsTRANSCRIPT
Shawn DimanthaGeneral Assembly, Product Management, Final Project
12/4/2013
Wearable Device Internet
App Store
We have to make a tough decision today
Maintain or Kill
Assess
Launch
Evaluate
Develop
Plan
Identify
But before we make the decision, let’s see how we got here…
Where we hypothesize we are now in the product lifecycle
Development
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Decline
Maintain or Kill
Assess
Launch
Evaluate
Develop
Plan
Identify
We started off with a brainstorming session with our working team, and identified a focus
Apps Wearable Devices
Smartwatches
Smart clothing
Medical sensors
Pet Pebbles
Maintain or Kill
Assess
Launch
Evaluate
Develop
Plan
Identify
We identified a target market, market size, market value, and competition
Category Description
Target MarketTechnologically savvy and fitness conscious young adults, 20-34 years old, earning >$60,000/year in the United States
Market Size 24 million people
Market Value / Penetration
$5.3 Billion ($150 watch, $50 wearable device kickbacks, $20 in app purchases)
Target Penetration of 50% of this market, $2.6 Billion, CAGR of 20% (so $7.8 Billion by 2020)
$62.2 Billion for overall smartwatch market (Generator Research) by 2018
CompetitionSony SmartWatch, Samsung Galaxy Gear, Qualcomm Toq, Cookoo Watch, I’m Watch, Basis, Nike Sportswatch, Adidas runner’s watch, Google (tbd), Apple (tbd)
DemographicsUS based , Smartphone owner, Email / text user, 20-34 years old, Male skewed, though females will definitely use the product, Above average income ($60K+), Likely to be urban dwelling, Tech savvy, Fitness/health conscious
Let’s take a step back and look at my Inference Ladder
App Store (consumers)
Hypotheses: Customers = Gen X
Problem = no place for apps
Largest RiskConsumers (current owners) do
not want apps for the Pebble Watch
ExperimentFacebook post linked to existing
mypebbelefaces.com
Success Criteria6,000 people out of 62K click
Results: 15,000 clicks
App Store (developers)
Hypotheses: Customers = 20-39 devs
Problem = no $, no app market
Largest RiskDevelopers or potential developers
will not want to develop for the Pebble platform
ExperimentTwitter / Stack Overflwo post linked to existing developer
API/SDK documentation
Success Criteria1,000 people out of 30 K followers
clickResults: 10,000 clicks
Wearable Devices Internet
Hypotheses: Customers = Fit Gen X
Problem = many dev., no insights
Largest RiskCurrent and future Pebble
customers do not own other wearable devices
ExperimentFacebook poll with existing
wearable devices
Success Criteria1,000 people out of 62K answer
pollResults: 8,000 people answer poll
Just to make sure we tested out some MVPs…
Ready for development, we pitched our key stakeholders next…
Who are our key stakeholders?
Keep Satisfied (Low Interest, High Power) CEO / founders Board of directors Government International trade associations CFO CTO Wearable device manufacturers
Manage Closely (High Interest, High Power) VC investors COO Operations Legal team
Monitor (Low Interest, Low Power) Finance team Accounting Retail store partners
Keep Informed (High Interest, Low Power) Supply chain distributors Customer support App developers Marketing people Business development / sales Creative director
Working team Product manager Project manager Developers UX designers QA engineers
Who was in the room for our pitch?Kickoff
Develop-ment
Building
Launch
Prep
Approvals
Launch• CEO /
founders• Board of
directors• CFO• Finance team• Accounting• CTO• COO• Operations• App
developers• Legal team• Customer
support• Marketing
people• Business
development• Creative
director• QA engineers• UX designers
• QA engineers• UX designers• App developers• Wearable
device manufacturers
• Supply chain distributors
• Wearable device manufacturers
• Pebble Watch manufacturers
• Supply chain distributors
• Retail store partners
• App developers• QA engineers• UX designers
• Wearable device manufacturers
• Pebble Watch manufacturers
• Supply chain distributors
• Retail store partners
• Marketing people
• Business development / sales
• App developers• Wearable
device manufacturers
• Customer support
• Legal team• Operations
• CEO / founders• CFO• Finance team• Accounting• CTO• COO• Wearable
device manufacturers
• VC investors• Legal team
• Wearable device manufacturers
• Pebble Watch manufacturers
• Supply chain distributors
• Retail store partners
• Marketing people
• Business development / sales
• Government• International
trade associations
• App developers• Customer
support• Legal team• Operations
Executive Summary
Then (1980’s) Now (2012-2013) Future (2014-2015)
Introduction: The Pebble team created today’s smart watch industry and is looking to launch a universal platform of an app store and a wearable devices system to launch Pebble into mainstream use.
Background / Scenario:
Roadmap / Timeline
Q1 2014: Launch app store, 1,000 devs
Q3 2014: Achieve 60% of fitness tracking
market
Q1 2015: Medical partnerships achieved
for WDI
Objectives / Key Results
Q1 2014
Objective 1 Key Results
Move Pebble from a primarily hardware-focused company to a primarily software-focused
Initial app store created by using existing mypebblefaces.com and adding five new categories of products (games, fitness, lifestyle, schedule, news)
100 app developers signed up and have created apps for fitness, games, lifestyle functions
Developer-ready SDK added to app store with documentation, existing Pebble API tool links added to app store homepage
Objective 2 Key Results
Transform Pebble into main wearable tech interface for 15% of wearable tech users
Data standard for Pebble created compatible with Nike FuelBand and FitBit data, all activity tracked in this new data standard
Tab built into current mobile app to allow for WDI sign ups (email, name, devices owned) and display data in bar chart format from current Pebble device
100% of Pebble watch data connected to and compatible WDI system API
80%
75%
Why? Software is a long game, builds distribution channels
Why? Need to start gaining market shareas an interface
Objectives / Key Results
Q2 2014
Objective 1 Key Results
Grow Pebble into smartwatch app hub
5,000 developers signed up for Pebble App Store, and 100,000 users signed up for using apps with referral links
Enable all Bluetooth LTE and motion sensor functionalities on Pebble store front
Approve and publish 5,000 developer created Pebble apps in quarter
Objective 2 Key Results
Become the main fitness tech platform for non-running activities
Compatibility with WDI for swimming, cycling, and biking tracked activity built within Pebble watch and on other fitness devices that do such tracking including smartwatches and simple activity trackers
Sleep tracking device compatibility added with Jawbone UP as a pilot for future data integration
55%
40%
Why? Smartwatch will be a $62 billionindustry, need to become main software
Why? Fitness is the first step to wearabletech dominance
Objectives / Key Results
Q3 2014
Objective 1 Key Results
Achieve accessible reach to at least 60% of fitness tracking market
Product integrations with Misfit Wearables, Jawbone UP, BodyMedia devices established
RunKeeper and MapMyFitness app APIs incorporated into Pebble WDI
Apple iPhone 5 m7 processor incorporated into Pebble hardware sensing technology
Objective 2 Key Results
Become go-to market platform for activity tracking across task-based activities and fitness
Nike Fuel made into standard base tracker of all activity enabled by partnership with Nike, Fuel converted into Pebbles, which become new standard of tracking for Pebble WDI users
FitBit integration added to full line of FitBit products including API linkup with Pebble WDI
10,000 beta testers signed up through Nike+ platform
Why? Fitness tech moves fast, but if we canget majority, we will win
Why? Need to start hacking away at highergrowth wearable tech markets
Objectives / Key Results
Q4 2014
Objective 1 Key Results
Achieve market leadership in accessible apps created across all smart devices (inclusive of smartwatches)
Android marketplace integration with Pebble App store established to increase worldwide reach (Android has 80% of global smart device market)
iOS App store market integration established with apps fully compatible with Pebble and iOS hardware
Objective 2 Key Results
Become market leader in wearable device related apps created, used, and revenue generated
WDI app added as standalone interface accessible from multiple platforms and devices, priority on smartphones and tablets
Developer monetization program integrated into wearable tech devices to track revenue achieved through Pebble WDI
In app and homepage advertising content added to Pebble properties to increase monetization opportunities
Why? Smartwatch will be a $62 billionindustry, need to become main software
Why? Need to own all categories to keepfootprint in market look at iOS app store
Business JustificationsBenefits: • App Store: Increased functionality• App Store: More revenue streams• WDI: Network reach, platform strategy locks in customers
Assumptions (highest sensitivity assumptions in red):• Sufficient number of app users / downloaders• Sufficient number of developers• Wearable tech market will grow to $60 billion by 2018• Wearable tech makers will want to plug into system
Alternatives considered (green options were most feasible considered options):
Building a Pebble watch with LCD
Acquire an app store from existing
entity like FitBit
Grow existing business focused on UX improvements
Acquire existing HumanAPI / Open mHealth platform
Partner with Cisco to gain access to
distribution chann.
2014 Cost, Sales Forecast (Benefits)
Total Categories
$1.2 M
$400K = 4 full stack engineers x 100K
$100K = 1 UX designer
$300K = AWS server burn
$200K = Online advertising
$200K = Sales reps / biz dev
2014 Costs:
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14Jul-1
4
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Worst ($2 M) Most Likely ($60 M) Best ($110 M)
2014 Revenues:
Best Case Assumptions$60M in App store revenue (30% * 100,000 paid apps * $2 average cost * 1000 average downloads)$30M in partner revenue$20M in if we take 1% of $2B of the healthcare market costs
Worst Case Assumptions$600K in App store revenue (30% * 1,000 paid apps * $2 average cost * 1000 average downloads)No partner revenue $2M if we take 0.1% of $2B of the healthcare market costs
Product Page, in BriefElevator PitchProvide users with a simple interface for their smartphone, on their wrist, without requiring the physical use of their smartphone. Core Objectives• Create and grow smartwatch category• Enable hands-free activities• Synchronize experience
Strategic InsightsSecret sauce: Disrupt smartphones, we provide interface to smartphones, with readable/non-glare e-ink screen; we’re locking in partners to bar others from entry
CompetitorsSony SmartWatch, Samsung Galaxy Gear, Qualcomm Toq, Cookoo Watch, I’m Watch, Basis, Nike Sportswatch, Adidas runner’s watch, Google (tbd), Apple (tbd)
Challenges/RisksSupply Chain Competition Adapting to new tech CommoditizationForeign IP Market stagnation
Device 1 summary pop-up
Device 1 summary pop-up
Storyboard for Wearable Devices Internet (WDI): Site Map
Home (Avatar screen)
Device 1 summary pop-up
Goals edit
Goals details
Storyboard WDI – Part 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 Title
2 Avatar
3 Connected devices (highlighted)
4 Pop-up when click on device
5 Total activity listed with units for the day
6 % Progress of activity for the day
7
7 Close window button (x)
Description:The home screen displays all devices connected on user’s body. The pop-up displays daily progress
Storyboard WDI – Part 2
1 Device abbrevaitions
2 Avatar
3 Total daily activity
4 Total daily activity progress
5 Name of device
6 Monthly goals, if daily goal hit, day highlighted
7 Social activity if user friends like activity
Description:When user closes pop-up, home screen displayed with device name abbreviations. If user clicks on goals in pop-up more detailed window with all goals for device listed.1
2 3
4
5
6
7
8 Daily streaks listed
8
Storyboard WDI – Part 3
1 Edit goals numbers
2 Ok to confirm, cancel to not change
3 Daily activity progress updates
4 Change goals by swiping up
5 Click ok to confirm
6 Confirmation message that goals changed
Description:User can edit goals if click on monthly goals. Numbers can be edited by spinning up (like slot machine). Progress bars update automatically.
1
2
3
4
56
User Persona for WDI
Ray WhiteA/R/G/S: 38 years old, White, Male, In a RelationshipLocation: San Francisco, CAEducation: College graduate from UC BerkleyJob: Business Development Lead, Path
Ray’s StoryEveryday Ray wakes up to his Clocky’s incessant rolling and beeping around his bedroom floor at 6 am. His girlfriend Sandy is still asleep because she is not a fitness addict like Ray. Ray scarfs down a bowl of cereal while reading the latest headlines from the Times. He immediately puts on his Brooks running shoes, already having suited up in his gym clothes. He is training for a half-marathon in Sausalito at the end of the month, so is slowly working up his pace, keeping track of his run with RunKeeper app on his iPhone. After finishing his 6 mile run in Golden Gate Park, he declines to share to Facebook.He gets back to his apartment in the Mission and takes a shower before throwing on a suit for work, today is a big day trying to land a partnership with Instagram to tie Path’s feed to Instagram. He bikes to Path’s SOMA office and steps into several meetings with junior folks trying to learn the trade of deal-making. After clocking in his ride on his Moves app, he starts to teach these rookies the tricks of the trade. Ray likes not having to enter anything into his phone as he tracks his workouts.Ray calls up an Uber cab and is whisked away to Instagram’s office. This is the 7th straight day of negotiations, Ray constantly checks his iPhone for updates on his internal deadlines. He gets an email from Sandy setting up plans for dinner at the new locally sourced restaurant down the street.
How we would change features based on Ray’s Persona:• Add automatic tracking as a default to WDI platform• Incorporate notifications into WDI platform and existing email
structure if user wants (email still stronger than app notifications)• Add race schedules of major events so users can sign up
User Stories Help Tech Team Develop with User in Mind
ID: 1Title: Build API bridge to Nike FuelBandDescription: As a Nike+ FuelBand enthusiast I want to be able to access my Nike+ data alongside my Pebble data so that I can keep track of all my activity levels.User Acceptance: Nike+ FuelBand push notifications allow data push to server. Data received on server and matches Nike Fuel Band data. On / off buttons under each device can be toggled without error. If button is off, device data cannot be accessed, if button is on device data is displayed to user. If both toggle buttons off, display pop-up message notifying user no devices are connected.
Notes/Wireframes
Sprint 1: Plug in other devices into platform
We prioritized WDI features using MoSCoW and Stack Rank for Q1 2014
Musts• (WDI) Username sign in box• (WDI) Password entry box• (WDI) Sign up button• (WDI) Wearable device data numbers
Coulds• (WDI) Wearable device icons• (WDI) Wearable device description
text• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart customizable
displaying data
Shoulds• (WDI) Devices tab image
Wants• (WDI) Cover flow style wearable device icons• (WDI) Cover flow wearable devices location
indicator (circles filled in or empty)• (WDI) Sign in progress screen• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart x-axis values• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart x-axis units• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart y-axis values• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart y-axis units• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart: Drop down for time
period of data• (WDI) Scatter Plot chart: Drop down for units of
data
Key:Red text indicates can be completed in 3 months per stacked rank list
The Tech Team Wanted to Understand Why…So We Built an Objective Tree
Make Pebble the leader in the smart / connected device market
Make Pebble the leader in the wearable tech market
Become go-to market platform
for activity tracking across
task-based activities and
fitness
*Nike +
FitBit
*Sleep +
swimming
Become market leader in wearable
device related apps created,
used, and revenue generated
*1,000+ wearable
developers
Make Pebble the leader in the applications marketplace
Grow Pebble into smartwatch
app hub
*100,000 apps
developed
Move Pebble from a primarily
hardware-focused company to a
primarily software-focused
*Create app store
App Store(Consumer-facing)
App Store(Developer-facing)
Wearable Devices Internet
Revenue
Grow
Retain
Engage
Acquire$0.02Goal: <$0.05Cost/click
$0.15Goal: <$0.20Cost/click
$0.10Goal: <$0.25Cost/click
Q2 2014 Key Metrics Dashboard
0.4Goal: >0.2Registrations/visit
0.3Goal: >0.2Registrations/visit
0.5Goal: >0.25Registrations/visit
?
8.7Goal: >5Apps downl./mo
2.5Goal: >1Apps created/3 mo
4,568Goal: >2,000Activities / week
5Goal: >0.5Apps shared/user
3.5Goal: >2Referrals / user
4,568Goal: >2,000Activities / week
0.2Goal: >0.3Paid apps:All apps
0.3Goal: >0.5Paid apps:Total apps
1.5Goal: >2Devices/user
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