generation of historical vulnerability indices using a desinventar database julio serje, deepa...
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Generation of Historical Vulnerability Indices using
a DesInventar Database
Julio Serje, Deepa Chavali and Sujit Mohanty
Introduction
• Concept
• The InDisData project
• Methodology and Tool - DesInventar
• The Orissa Experience
• Qualitative results
in·dex (în¹dèks´) noun
plural in·dex·es or in·di·ces (-dî-sêz´)
a. Something that serves to guide, point out, or
otherwise facilitate reference…
b. A number derived from a formula, used
to characterize a set of data…
Excerpted from The American Heritage« Dictionary of the English Language, Third Edition
® 1996 by Houghton Mifflin Company..
Historical Vulnerability
• Patterns: repeated periodic occurrence of losses
• Trends: increasing magnitude of losses
• Impact: high losses being caused by low magnitude events
Will be defined and calculated based on:
The InDisData Project• A database of disasters to understand trends and
patterns. • A systematic geo-referenced inventory of small,
medium and large-scale disasters for past 30 years.• To rationalize decision making for disaster
preparedness, as well as providing an objective base for vulnerability assessment and priority setting.
• To support planning & policy decisions for disaster preparedness and mitigation.
Orissa Pilot Process
• Data collected for 30 districts and 314 blocks from newspapers over a period of 32 years.
• Data collected from media is compared with Government records.
• Institutionalization with Government for sustainability.
• Interpretation and analysis of the data shows new dimensions of risk & vulnerabilities of the State.
• Orissa ‘Vulnerability Analysis Report’ is being prepared in association with ‘Center for Development Studies’.
DesInventar
• A methodology
• A tool
• The previous experience in Latin America
DesInventar
Methodology
• Disaggregation of the effects
• Geo-referenced data
• Inclusion of Small and Medium Disasters
DesInventarThe Software Tools
Stand-alone and Web-enabled version
http://www.desinventar.org
Preliminary Findings
• Epidemics and cyclones are the greatest causes of deaths
• Epidemics are highly associated with floods, but also occur as independent incidents.
• Fire is the greatest cause of household destruction, comparable to Cyclone.
• Floods affect people more than any other type of disaster.
Impact on Property
Number of Houses Destroyed in Disasters Orissa
Fire
(436,212)
Cyclone (376,285)
Floods (135485)
Impact on LivelihoodNumber of people affected
Flood (31’395,654)
Cyclone(11’633,140)
Drought(3’408,999)
Rains (3’776,359)
Relation Floods-Epidemics
Number of reports of floods and people killed by epidemics, 11 years, with apparently non-flood related epidemics.
Relation Floods-Epidemics
Number of reports in floods and people killed by epidemics, 11 years, in 5 less-flood prone districts.
Districts of Koraput, Kandhamal, Kalahand, Rayadada and Gajapat
Way forward:
• Definition of a methodology to generate a numeric index based on trends, patterns and impact
• Calculation of these indices for Orissa
• Comparison of these indices against other vulnerability index
• Fine tuning of the whole process
• Use of the indices in Risk Assessment
InDisData is supported by:Ministry of Home Affairs
National Institute of Disaster Management NIDM
United Nations Development Programme UNDP
The Network for Social Studies on Disaster Prevention in Latin America