generation reliability calculation methodology
DESCRIPTION
Generation Reliability Calculation Methodology. Presentation to the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee. Presentation. Introduction Actual tool FEP - Methodology New tool FEPMC - Methodology Input Comparison Output Comparison FEPMC – Advantages Simulations Next Steps. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
A Hydro-Québec Division
November 18, 2004
Generation Reliability Generation Reliability Calculation MethodologyCalculation Methodology
Presentation to the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Presentation to the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning CommitteeCommittee
November 18, 200422
PresentationPresentation
IntroductionIntroduction
Actual tool FEP - MethodologyActual tool FEP - Methodology
New tool FEPMC - MethodologyNew tool FEPMC - Methodology
Input ComparisonInput Comparison
Output ComparisonOutput Comparison
FEPMC – AdvantagesFEPMC – Advantages
SimulationsSimulations
Next StepsNext Steps
November 18, 200433
IntroductionIntroduction
In 2003, Hydro-Québec started the In 2003, Hydro-Québec started the development of a new model to better assess development of a new model to better assess its resources adequacy its resources adequacy
IncentivesIncentives Better assessment of demand and supply side Better assessment of demand and supply side
benefits benefits Introduction of transmission constraints in Introduction of transmission constraints in
reliability assessments reliability assessments Elimination of manual data entry (risk of error)Elimination of manual data entry (risk of error) Improvement of user interfaceImprovement of user interface
November 18, 200444
Actual tool FEP - MethodologyActual tool FEP - Methodology
DescriptionDescription The program convolves a monthly load duration The program convolves a monthly load duration
curve and a probability curve of forced outages curve and a probability curve of forced outages to calculate LOLEto calculate LOLE
Installed CapacityAvailable CapacityPlanned Outage
Load Duration Curve
Lk
Tk
Ok
Pk1
Outage causing a loss of load
MW
November 18, 200455
Actual tool FEP - MethodologyActual tool FEP - Methodology
Load ModelLoad Model Monthly load duration curve with annual peak Monthly load duration curve with annual peak
load forced in Januaryload forced in January Load forecast uncertainty (LFU)Load forecast uncertainty (LFU)
Normal distribution where the standard deviation is a Normal distribution where the standard deviation is a percentage of the load forecastpercentage of the load forecast
Structural and climatic uncertaintiesStructural and climatic uncertainties
Capacity ModelCapacity Model Forced outages probability curve Forced outages probability curve
Cumulative probability curve for total forced outagesCumulative probability curve for total forced outages
November 18, 200466
New tool FEPMC - MethodologyNew tool FEPMC - Methodology
DescriptionDescription The new program calculates the installed The new program calculates the installed
capacity margin for all 8760 hours and derives capacity margin for all 8760 hours and derives LOLE from the hours where available LOLE from the hours where available resources are lower than firm commitments resources are lower than firm commitments plus synchronous reserve (250 MW) plus synchronous reserve (250 MW)
Load ModelLoad Model 210 chronological zonal load profiles210 chronological zonal load profiles
Load forecast applied to last 30 years weather Load forecast applied to last 30 years weather profiles profiles
Weather profile offsets of ± 3 daysWeather profile offsets of ± 3 days Structural uncertainty normally distributedStructural uncertainty normally distributed
November 18, 200477
New tool FEPMC - MethodologyNew tool FEPMC - Methodology
Capacity ModelCapacity Model Forced outages generated using Monte-Carlo Forced outages generated using Monte-Carlo
statistical methodstatistical method Number and length of forced outages based on Number and length of forced outages based on
historical data for every unithistorical data for every unit
Tie benefitsTie benefits No tie benefits are taken into accountNo tie benefits are taken into account Only firm external sales and purchases are Only firm external sales and purchases are
consideredconsidered
ConvergenceConvergence Relatively high number of cycles required for Relatively high number of cycles required for
convergenceconvergence
November 18, 200488
New tool FEPMC - MethodologyNew tool FEPMC - Methodology
Convergence Test - FEP MC
2,09
2,1
2,11
2,12
2,13
2,14
2,15
2,16
2,17
2,18
2,19
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
Number of years simulated
LO
LE
(h
ou
rs/y
ear)
Complete Execution Mid Execution Short Execution
November 18, 200499
New tool FEPMC - MethodologyNew tool FEPMC - Methodology
Transmission System representationTransmission System representation DC load flow simulationDC load flow simulation
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Input ComparisonInput Comparison
FEPFEP FEPMCFEPMC
Load ForecastLoad Forecast Load duration curvesLoad duration curves 210 chronological zonal load 210 chronological zonal load profilesprofiles
Forced OutagesForced Outages Probability curveProbability curve Randomly generated using Randomly generated using Monte Carlo's methodMonte Carlo's method
Planned OutagesPlanned Outages Monthly percentageMonthly percentage Unit specific maintenance Unit specific maintenance schedule (weekly basis)schedule (weekly basis)
Demand and Supply Side Demand and Supply Side Management ConstraintsManagement Constraints
Fixed deratings to account Fixed deratings to account for constraintsfor constraints
Number and duration of Number and duration of usage usage
Transmission ConstraintsTransmission Constraints Not taken into accountNot taken into account Weekly value per Weekly value per transmission pathtransmission path
Other constraintsOther constraints Not taken into accountNot taken into accountAbility to take into account Ability to take into account other constraints such as other constraints such as
ice cover formationice cover formation
November 18, 20041111
Output ComparisonOutput Comparison
FEPFEP FEPMCFEPMC
LOLELOLE LOLELOLE
Installed reserve marginInstalled reserve margin Installed reserve marginInstalled reserve margin
Monthly capacity marginMonthly capacity margin Monthly capacity marginMonthly capacity margin
Statistics on use of demand and supply Statistics on use of demand and supply side management programsside management programs
Statistics on load shedding conditionsStatistics on load shedding conditions
November 18, 20041212
FEPMC - AdvantagesFEPMC - Advantages
More realistic assessment of resources More realistic assessment of resources availabilityavailability
Representation of transmission constraints Representation of transmission constraints (congestion)(congestion)
Automatic data transferAutomatic data transfer
Evaluation of benefits of demand and supply Evaluation of benefits of demand and supply side management programsside management programs
November 18, 20041313
Simulations - Simulations - IEEE Test GridIEEE Test Grid
Simplified network and loadSimplified network and load Fixed parameters (LFU, EFOR, Maintenance)Fixed parameters (LFU, EFOR, Maintenance)
FEP does not take into account the transfer of unused FEP does not take into account the transfer of unused volumes of energy from one month to the othervolumes of energy from one month to the other
SimulationSimulation FEPFEPLOLELOLE
FEPMCFEPMCLOLELOLE
IEEE Test Grid (without hydraulic IEEE Test Grid (without hydraulic constraints)constraints) 63,74 hrs63,74 hrs 59,60 hrs59,60 hrs
IEEE Test Grid (with hydraulic IEEE Test Grid (with hydraulic constraints)constraints) 98,24 hrs98,24 hrs 82,86 hrs82,86 hrs
Hydraulic constraints representationHydraulic constraints representation
(annual water inflow)(annual water inflow)Planned OutagePlanned Outage
Supply side Supply side Management Management
ProgramProgram
November 18, 20041414
Simulations – Hydro-Québec GridSimulations – Hydro-Québec Grid
Simulation with a constrained version of FEPMC to Simulation with a constrained version of FEPMC to establish a base comparison with FEPestablish a base comparison with FEP Load duration curve built from chronological load Load duration curve built from chronological load
profilesprofiles Same load forecast uncertaintiesSame load forecast uncertainties Monthly planned outagesMonthly planned outages Fixed quantities for demand and supply side Fixed quantities for demand and supply side
managementmanagement Transmission constraints not taken into accountTransmission constraints not taken into account
The installed reserve margins obtained with FEP and The installed reserve margins obtained with FEP and FEPMC were within 5%FEPMC were within 5%
November 18, 20041515
Simulations – Hydro-Québec GridSimulations – Hydro-Québec Grid
Simulation with the introduction of the 210 Simulation with the introduction of the 210 chronological zonal load shapes instead of chronological zonal load shapes instead of the load duration curve for FEPMCthe load duration curve for FEPMC
Results show the 210 load profiles are more Results show the 210 load profiles are more stringent than a normal distribution. stringent than a normal distribution.
November 18, 20041616
Simulations – Hydro-Québec GridSimulations – Hydro-Québec Grid
Simulation with the introduction of all the Simulation with the introduction of all the other FEPMC features (except transmission other FEPMC features (except transmission constraints)constraints)
LOLE is slightly lowered for the following LOLE is slightly lowered for the following reasons:reasons:
By forcing the annual peak load in January, the By forcing the annual peak load in January, the FEP model artificially overestimates demandFEP model artificially overestimates demand
Better modeling of demand and production side Better modeling of demand and production side management programsmanagement programs
November 18, 20041717
Next StepsNext Steps
Validation of the transmission modeling Validation of the transmission modeling impact on resource adequacyimpact on resource adequacy
Reduce calculation timeReduce calculation time
