generation technology innovations -...

Amy Ericson

Vice President, Product Platform Management

Alstom Power’s Global Gas Business

2012 Summer Seminar

August 5-7, 2012

Generation Technology Innovations

2 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Natural Gas Market Themes “Shale gas revolution, global price disconnect”

Higher by 26% from new shale gas and LNG based reserves

Capacity to deliver gas globally to increase by 50%

To increase 20% to 3,794 bcm by 2020; power sector main driver

Still volatile, but with huge gap between NAM and Europe/Asia

Reserves

Price Supply

Demand

Power use to rise 52%


Agenda

What if…

… an unconventional gas boom greatly increases the

use of gas power generation worldwide?

– What’s the journey and where does it take us?

– What must gas power generation technology become?

– What must renewable power generation technology

become?

– Where’s the intersection?


2012 2035

Some Consequences from a Surge

in Gas Supply

Renewables markets gather

speed, hybrid solutions boom

Gas infrastructure used as

storage, little need for

Grid updates

Rising prices and

loss of

competitiveness of

Gas vs. Renewables

Unconventional Gas

Boom in the U.S., later

also in Europe and China

Moderate Climate

Mitigation Agreement

Gas Plants Replace Coal in

Investment Pipeline

Gas prices

converging

globally


Global Installed Capacity 2035:

9600 GW

n coal n gas, oil n gas ccs n nuclear n hydro n wind n solar pv n solar csp n biomass n other

Global Installed Capacity 2010:

5200 MW

others: 100

POWER GENERATION in 2035: Intermittent Sources

Gain Ground; Gas becomes the go-to resource

Global E-Generation:

37200 TWh +70% to 2010

Gas and Renewables to 80% of Capacity


Market Drivers Consequent Trends: Gas Fired Power Generation

Market Drivers:

Economics

Environment

Technology Mix

Technology

Requirements:

Increased Efficiency

Economies of Scale

Water Usage

Gas with CCS?

Flexibility

Storage?

Hybrid?


Efficiency of Gas Power Plants

Base: Fuel price 4.5 $/mmBtu

- 7.7%

CC

PP

Eff

icie

ncy

Efficiency [%]

year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

CCPP

Korneuburg (A)

KA11N/KA13E

KA24/ KA26

GT Neuchâtel (CH)

GT24/GT26

GT11N/GT13E

GT12

2020

Efficiency [%]

year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

CCPP

Korneuburg (A)

KA11N/KA13E

KA24/ KA26

GT Neuchâtel (CH)

GT24/GT26

GT11N/GT13E

GT12

2020

CCPP Efficiency

development over time CCPP Efficiency vs. CoE

Continuous Efficiency Improvements


58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

Gro

ss

CC

PP

Eff

icie

nc

y C

CP

P E

ffic

ien

cy

Future CCPP Efficiency towards the 65% and above technology cycle


All modes of operation, the majority NOT baseload

Operating Regime – U.S. 2011 Combined

Cycle Plants


Increased complexity of

components

Allo

ys a

nd e

xotic

mate

rials

NOx and CO emissions

Reliability

Impact

on com

ponent

lifetim

e

Flexibility

Impact o

n s

tart-u

p

relia

bility

Cos

t

Em

issions

Efficiency

• High base-load efficiency

(62%-65%?)

• High efficiency across the load

range

• Low first (CAPEX) costs and

low operational (OPEX) costs

• Maintaining current or

lowering emission levels

Future CCPP Efficiency towards the 65% and above technology cycle


Future Technology Mix

…What Can Happen with a Lot of Wind Power!

• 12 GW wind

power loss

within 18 hours

• Loss of about

50% of

installed

wind capacity

Germany’s installed wind power accounts for 25 GW of 120 GW

totally installed capacity (2009)

Grid stability will require reserve capacity in NAM

Our answer: >450 MW in 10 minutes


Gas Flexibility Fast Start, Turndown and

Performance Across the Load Range

• High turndown capability

• Support renewables and provide

spinning reserve

• Emission compliant at low loads

• Critical to integrate GT, HRSG, ST

and BOP for flexibility

• Operate over wide operating regime

(base-load to daily start–stop)

• Fast start/ramping, high cycling with

minimized lifetime impact


2012 2035

Some Consequences from a Surge in

Gas Supply

Renewables markets gather

speed, hybrid solutions boom

Gas infrastructure used as

storage, little need for

Grid updates

Rising prices and

loss of

competitiveness of

Gas vs. Renewables

Unconventional Gas

Boom in the US, later

also in Europe and China

Moderate Climate

Mitigation Agreement

Gas Plants Replace Coal

in Investment Pipeline

Gas prices

converging

globally


3 MW turbine 5 turbines => 13.5 MW

Yield = 50 GWh/year

+ 25%

YIELD

1.5-2 MW turbine

6 turbines => 11 MW Yield = 40 GWh/year

Yield @ 7.5 m/s average wind speed

Few wind turbines and higher yield

Scale-up = Land, CAPEX, and

OPEX Optimization


Alstom US Power Industry Seminar – Newport, RI – Sep 9 - 11,

2011 - P 16


Case Study MISO – Wind Curtailments

total 2010: 4% (824 GWh)

total 2009: 1% (292 GWh)

other TSO alike

Source: Power 2020 – Storage

Stream – Dec. 2011

We need storage to make the most of investments


The Continuum of Flexible Generation

and Storage

Future market trends:

• Fossil based Power generation with key drivers towards higher CoE

– More flexible operation with decreased operating hours and variable loads

– Marginal cost (Fuel) increased by CO2 price when no CCS is applied

• Need/opportunity to integrate variability of RES and to ensure back up capacity


Conventional

(Li-ion, Ni-Cd, Pb)

Static liquid or solid

electrodes/anode

materials

70 - 90%

Li-ion: 95%

CAES

Super Capacitors

Flow

Cell/Advanced

(VRB, ZnBr, NaS)

Transportation

UPS

Power quality

Load leveling

Energy Storage

Technology

Operating

principle

System

output

Cycle

efficiency

Applications

Flywheels

Two electrolytes are

separately stored 60 - 80% min - hours /

seconds

Load leveling

Renewables storage

Massive rotating cylinder

stores/delivers energy via

motor/generator mounted

on stator

95% Voltage/Frequency

stabilization

Power quality

Transportation

Off-peak electricity used

to compress air

65-75% Commodity Storage

Peak shaving

Renewables storage

High surface area elec-

trode materials used to

enhance capacitors to

higher power/energy

95% Power quality

Po

ten

tial

Batt

eri

es

Kin

eti

c

Ele

ctr

ical

sec - min /

seconds

hours /

minutes

milliseconds /

milliseconds

100 kW –

10 MW

100 kW –

10 MW

5 kW –

3 MW

10 MW –

200 MW

< 1 MW

min - hours /

seconds

Pump Storage

Off-peak electricity used

to pump water to storage

lake

100 MW –

2000 MW

days /

minutes 75 - 80%

Commodity Storage

Peak shaving

Renewables storage

Bulk Hydrogen

(concept)

Ch

em

ical

Hydrolysis with surplus

electricity to obtain H2

Bulk storage H2,

H2 direct use + turbining

500 MW -

1000 MW 35 - 40% Mobility, Chemistry,

Electrification with

turbine-generator

days-months/

minutes

Backup time /

Reaction time

Energy

density

Li-ion: 290

Ni-Cd: 150

kWh/m3

VRB: 6

NaS: 42

kWh/m3

2 kWh/m3

6 kWh/m3

5 kWh/m3

6 kWh/m3

2700 kWh/m3

Electrical Energy Storage

Technology Types and Potential


Hybrids…

Transition to Quickly Gain Scale

• Solutions for CCPP and ST plants

• Increase of renewable energy,

decrease of CO2 emissions and fuel saving

• Generation of “dispatchable” electricity

without need for storage

• Reduced CAPEX for same output

– Leverage existing power block and

grid access by maximising utilisation

• Synergetic benefits for new plants

– Higher efficiency, increased operational

flexibility (ISCC), maximum staff utilisation

20

ISCC – Integrated Solar Combined Cycle

Solar: 50 - 100 MW / up to 40% renewable share

An economic solution for Cleaner Fossil Power


Environment – Legislation?

CO2 Emissions over time

Gas Wave 2035

+ 9%

Pressure on CO2 emissions from all fossil fuels likely to continue

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