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Geo Factsheetwww.curriculum-press.co.uk Number 355

Water Security in South Asia

energy security

water security

eco-security

food security

India

Pakistan

Afghanistan

NepalBhutan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Maldives

“The future political impact of water scarcity may be devastating, using water the way we have in the past simply will not sustain humanity in future.” Jean Chrétien, former Canadian prime minister and co-chair of the InterAction Council.

So what is “Water Security” and why does it matter?

Water security: is defined as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for:• sustaining livelihoods, human well-being,• sustaining socio-economic development,• ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-

related disasters,• preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political

stability.(UN-Water, 2013)

Water security matters because, apart from the obvious, without it we die; access to secure and safe water supply underpins almost every aspect of our lives.• Domestic use,• In agriculture,• To generate energy,• In industrial processes,• Waste disposal.

But while the demand for clean water is growing, resources are finite, and as a result water supplies are coming under increased stress.Developed countries are already major consumers of water. Now developing countries, with their expanding populations, increased levels of urbanisation and economic growth and, rapid rise in the demand for food are adding to the growing pressure on water resources.So, what are the issues?• Rivers are a major source of fresh water, but rainfall, which is the

main input to river basins varies from one year to the next.• Many of the major rivers flow across boundaries meaning more

than one country creating a potential source of conflict betweencountries.

• Conflict exists between different users within a country. So,agriculture (via irrigation) and energy generation (H.E.P.) competefor the same water and they, in turn, must compete with risingdomestic commercial and industrial demand.

It is also a vital component for the many ecosystems that help to sustain life.

Figure 1. The water - food - energy nexus

• This needs to be set against a growing uncertainty; the impact ofglobal warming on water demand and river regimes.

South Asia; A Region Under PressureOne region where water security will increasingly become an issue is South Asia, which includes India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka (Figure 2).

Figure 2. The countries of South Asia

The population of South Asia is 1.6 billion. By 2050 it is forecast to be over 2.2 billion.

The region is characterized by:• Rapid population growth,• High rates of urbanization; at 2.4% per annum (highest in Asia),• High rates of economic growth (around 6% p.a.),• Rapid growth in demand for food,• A rapid growth in energy demand; India’s energy demand is forecast

to double by 2040,• Poverty and malnutrition. South Asia is home to 40% of the

world’s poor where more than 35% of the world's population areundernourished and cannot afford to buy clean water,

• Restricted access to water; South Asia has access to just 8% ofglobal water resources, with per capita water availability decreasingby nearly 80% since the 1950s.

Water StressWater supplies are under pressure in all countries in the region.

Definition: Water stress occurs when the demand for water exceeds the available amount during a certain period or when poor quality restricts its use. Water stress causes deterioration of fresh water resources in terms of quantity and quality.

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Water Security in South Asia Geo Factsheet 355

Downstream river basinHindu KushHimalayan region

TarimAmu Darya

Indus

GangesIrrawaddy

Sarween

Mekong

Yangtze

Yellow

It occurs where under 1,700m³ per person per year is available.

The cities in particular are feeling the pressure of population growth and urbanization:• 22 major Indian cities face daily water shortages,• In Nepal’s capital, Kathmandu, many local residents have grown

accustomed to waiting in queues for hours to obtain drinking water,• In Karachi, Pakistan, electricity and water shortages have led to

protests and citywide unrest.[source: Asia Foundation]

The Challenging Situation in South AsiaPositives• Six of the world’s major river basins flow through the region

(Figure 3),• The rivers are all perennial,• Their source regions are all regions of moderate to high rainfall;

fed by a combination of snow melt and high rainfall,• Hydroelectric power potential is high, although not fully exploited.

Figure 3. The major river basins of South Asia

Negatives• Rainfall is seasonal with at least one dry season (Tropical Monsoon Climate),• The monsoon is becoming increasingly unreliable in terms of when it occurs and how much rain it brings,• The rivers flow across international borders, leading to competition for water, and a potential for conflicts between countries, especially

Nepal, India, Pakistan, and China, who are accessing many of the head waters.• These river systems are the main source for all water uses, including irrigation for agriculture.• As a result of the pressure on irrigation, groundwater supplies are being used up; approximately 75% of farmers rely on pumped groundwater

to water their crops, and water use is intensifying, particularly for the 600 million people living on the hot, dry plains that extend from easternPakistan and into northern India and Bangladesh.

Note: Over the last decade in India, groundwater was pumped out 70% faster than in the 1990s. Satellite measurements showed a staggering loss of 54km3 of groundwater a year. (source NASA)

Uncertainties: Climate ChangeThe threat of climate change is creating increasing uncertainty over the future of water supply in this region.

Ongoing research predicts:• An overall warming of the sub-continent of between 1 – 3 °C,• A decline in the number of rain forming depressions since 1970,• An increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events and severe rainstorms even where total rainfall is declining; in India, for example,

the number of severe storms has increased by 10%,• Increasing intensity and frequency of drought (up by 7%) 1900 – 2005.

Future projections suggest:• Temperatures will rise faster in South Asia than for most of the rest of the world,• The monsoon will become increasingly variable in terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation,• The region can expect increasing water stress. especially the semi-arid areas. They will require 10% additional irrigation for every 1 °C

increase in average temperature.

This adds up to an increasing pressure on water resources in terms of;a. Less water for irrigation,b. Lower soil moisture content,c. Poorer water quality,d. Increased pest and disease incidence.

Global Warming and Melting GlaciersThere is real concern that the Himalayan glaciers, which feed the main river systems, could start to melt, which could have a catastrophic impact for South Asia. However, there is much disagreement on this issue.

Recent research from the International Water Management Institute based in Sri Lanka suggests that such fears may be exaggerated. According to researchers, it would take a massive 13 to 15 °C rise in temperatures to melt the glaciers that feed the Indus, for example.

Further findings suggest that, at present, glacial melting doesn’t contribute significantly to overall discharge, and decreased snowfall as a result of warming would be replaced by increased rainfall, which may affect the distribution of rainfall through the year but not the total amount. (IWMI)

Water Security in South Asia Geo Factsheet 355

3

0

5

10

15

20

(x103 m3)

J J JF M MA A S O N D

FlowDischarge

ABCD

HighlandLowlandCoastalArid ClimateHumidSemi-arid

Cool wintersnot summers

monsoon rainfallAridity increases

A

Cold winters, mildsummers, rainfall

in all seasons

A

B

B

D

D

C

Cool to co

ld winter,

mild to warm su

mmers,

winter rain

fall

Mild winter,hot summers,extreme aridity

Mild winters, warm summers

Rann of Kutch

0 200km

N

Case StudiesThis next section looks at 3 countries, all of which illustrate one or more aspects of the issues surrounding water security:1. Pakistan: water conflict,2. Nepal: storage issues,3. Sri Lanka: competing uses.

1. PakistanPakistan is an example of a country that does not have control over its water supply. The main river system that supplies water into Pakistan is the Indus and its tributaries, which originates in the Himalayan Mountains but is shared with India (Figure 4). Agriculture and food security in Pakistan depend on access to water from this system. However, the rivers must first flow though India.

The Indus in PakistanThe Indus system is fed by seasonal snowmelt and monsoon rainfall (the majority of which is in Tibet and India) plus a small amount of glacial melt. Discharge shows a marked seasonal pattern (Figure 5

Figure 5. The Indus river hydrograph

HyderabadKarachi

LarkanaSukkur

Multan

FaisalabadDera IsmailKhan

KundianLahore

Guiranwala

RawalpindiIslamabad

Gar

New Dehli

Kandahar

Kabul

Gilgit

Arabiansea

Sutlej RiverRavi River

Indu

s Rive

r

India

Pakistan

AfghanistanChina

Nepal

0 1500 150km

miles

N

However, in some regions discharge declines, particularly in central and southern Pakistan (Figure 6). This is a result of:• Extraction for irrigation and domestic use,• Losses to the system via evapotranspiration,• The increasing aridity of the climate.

Figure 6. Climate zones; Pakistan (source slideshare)

So, Pakistan struggles with water shortages due to its climate, but the fact that the Indus flows from India into Pakistan makes it vulnerable to developments on the Indus across the border. This creates tensions, and a potential for conflict between the two countries.

To avoid conflict between the two countries, the Indus Waters treaty was signed in 1960, whereby India is permitted to extract 20% of the total discharge from the headwaters of the Indus system.

The problem for both countries is that their populations have been growing rapidly, increasing the pressure on agriculture, power supply, and domestic water demand. As a result, existing water resources have come under increasing stress on both sides of the border.

And India has contributed to increased water stress within Pakistan by building 3200 dams and barrages along the Jhelum tributary of the Indus, depriving Pakistan of a major source of irrigation water.

Water from the Indus is essential for irrigation and domestic use, as 90% of the country’s food and 65% of its employment depends on agriculture, especially in Sindh and Punjab provinces (regions B and D on the map), Pakistan’s “breadbasket”.

Figure 4. The Indus river system (Pakistan Defence dept)

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Water Security in South Asia Geo Factsheet 355

2. Nepal

Figure 7. Nepal

China

India

Bangladesh

Karnali

Kali

Buri Gandak

Sun KoshiAr

unKathmandu

N

0 40 80 km

0 40 80 km

Nepal is an example of a country that has more than enough rainfall for agriculture domestic demand and hydroelectricity. In addition, groundwater supplies are estimated to be well above what Nepal would need to be completely secure in terms of water resources. Yet Nepal is a country on the brink of water insecurity1. The larger towns and cities in Nepal face regular water shortages

especially during the dry season,2. Relatively little of the hydro-electricity potential has been utilised

(HEP contributes just 17% of total energy production),3. Irrigation reaches just 27% of agricultural land,4. High levels of pollution are reported in many rivers particularly

in urban areas,5. Many Nepalese are very poor and cannot afford the cost of clean

water.

If you add all that up, it means pressure on drinking water, food production, and energy supply in a country where already the population is growing steadily (28 million currently), urbanisation rates are over 3% per annum, and tourism has more than doubled since 1996 (800,000 pa).

The question is, why?1. Water SourcesNepal has more water per capita than most countries. Water resources are abundant in the form of snow cover, rivers, springs, lakes, andgroundwater.

However, one of the problems Nepal faces is that it does not take water from the large rivers that feed into the upper Ganges system and flow all year. Instead it has to rely on abstraction from small and medium sized rivers, most of which are heavily reliant on the South West monsoon rains falling in June/July. Moreover, the monsoon rainfall is erratic both in terms of how much rain falls and also when it falls.

However, for an emerging economy like Nepal, maintaining access to water is key to sustainable development of food, energy security, and their domestic supplies.

Factfile: The Economy• over 75% of livelihoods are based on agriculture (subsistence) and forestry• agriculture accounts for over 60% of GDP and 75% of exports• only 21% land is cultivable• 65% of agriculture is rain fed (not irrigated)• agriculture consumes 99% of water taken from rivers• only 24% of cultivable land is irrigated• the rural labour force is declining as more and more young people are migrating to the towns

2. Problemsa. Lack of surface water storage is a major problem in Nepal, especially in the dry season, due mainly to public opposition to dam building.b. Access to ground water stores via pumps is rendered difficult by the lack of electricity in rural areas (see below).c. Nepal has massive HEP potential, but in the recent past two major schemes have been cancelled as a result of local opposition. Most rural

areas are seriously underserved as a result.d. The existing water-based infrastructure is poor, outdated, and inefficient. More than 2.3 million people have restricted access to safe

drinking water and over half the population don’t have access to acceptable standards of sanitation. In rural areas, people are reliant onsprings and streams, or old leaking pipes, with no guarantee that the water will be clean. In Kathmandu, the capital, water demand isthree times the current supply.

e. Existing irrigation technology is based on centuries-old methods. Water is siphoned from streams and small rivers via small stone builtweirs and dams, and then gravity fed along a series of narrow channels and canals to field networks. There is very little pumping ofgroundwater, piped water transfer, or water storage involved; the channels need constant maintenance. Consequently, leakage from thechannels is high and the efficiency and productivity of these systems is low, according to the International Water Management Institute.

f. Many of the rivers are heavily polluted, especially where they flow through the cities, even though the water is needed for human use. InKathmandu, rivers like the Bagmati and its tributary the Vishnumati are public, and suffers from uncontrolled dumping of every kind ofindustrial waste; “The Bagmati River is an open sewer.” (Nepal Times) Nevertheless, people use the water for washing, household use,rituals, and for funeral ceremonies at ghats, including at the holy Hindu temple of Pashupati.

Water Security in South Asia Geo Factsheet 355

5

0 - 1,0001,000 - 1,5001,500 - 2,0002,000 - 2,5002,500 - 3,000

4,000 - 5,0005,000 +

3,000 - 4,000

1911 - 1940Rainfall (mm)

0 - 1,0001,000 - 1,5001,500 - 2,0002,000 - 2,5002,500 - 3,000

4,000 - 5,0005,000 +

3,000 - 4,000

N N 1961 - 1990Rainfall (mm)

0 100 km 0 100km

Key Points1. Around one third of the population are engaged in agriculture (higher in the north and east of the country); many are little more than

subsistence farmers with rice the staple crop, whilst others are employed on the tea estates, rubber and coconut plantations, or growvegetables in the uplands, mainly for consumption in the cities.

2. Already agricultural demand for water is high and, as agriculture evolves from subsistence to a commercial farming demand, it willfurther increase.

3. The north and east of the island, in particular, are gradually drying out. The increased variability of rainfall will make matters worse,leading to an increasing soil moisture deficit in regions that are already under stress.

4. Currently, declining rainfall and runoff in the central highlands is affecting water storage for HEP generation as well as impacting theavailability of irrigation water. Thus, with agriculture taking priority, when the reservoir levels fall it is power generation that comesunder pressure, leading to increasingly frequent power cuts, which are already creating problems in the larger urban areas.

Impact of Climate Change• There is already evidence of a 1 °C increase in temperature during the last century,• Looking ahead, the forecast is that the north and east (dry zone) will become increasingly arid as temperatures rise

• Drought frequency will increase in the north and east,• The dry zone will continue to expand (Figure 9).Figure 9. Changes to rainfall in Sri Lanka 1911 - 1990

3. Sri LankaSri Lanka provides an example of a country that has too much competition in demand for its water, creating various levels of water stress (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Uses of water in Sri Lanka (source F.A.O United Nations)

Agriculture water withdrawalas a % of total withdrawal

Industrial water withdrawalas a % of total withdrawalMunicipal water withdrawalas a % of total withdrawal

Fresh water withdrawalas a % of total water resources

What this means is that there will be an increase in the demand for irrigation water for rice cultivation (13 -20%), especially in the dry zone. However, at present there is no infrastructure in place to transfer water from the wetter south and west to the north and east. The dry zone is, therefore, vulnerable to even small reductions in rainfall.If rainfall declines this will also lead to a fall in yields of tea (a major export crop) between 30 and 80 kg per hectare island-wide. Vegetable production in the highland and yields of coconut (rainfed crop) will also decline.The vulnerability of Sri Lanka’s water resources to climate change and increasing water demand is a key challenge to national food and energy security. Yet the issue is not being taken seriously by the authorities. As yet, there are no plans in place to build water transfer schemes or to diversify away from a dependence on hydroelectric power generation.

As of now only 1% of the country’s water comes from groundwater extraction. However, the concern is that the countries groundwater reserves will come under increasing pressure from agriculture in particular.

Water security is vital for Sri Lanka because:• Agriculture is a major sector in the economy export both rice for

domestic use and tea, rubber, and coconut for export,

• 42% of generated electricity comes from hydroelectricity,

• The economy is growing rapidly (7% p.a.) and water demandis increasing, for more electricity generation, domestic use,industry, and tourism. This is especially true for the country’sleading economic region, Western Province,

• It is home to important ecosystems, which may well benegatively affected by increased pressure on resources.

(between 2 and 4 °C for Sri Lanka) and rainfall decreases (1960 - 1990: 7%),

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Water Security in South Asia Geo Factsheet 355

Coping with Climate Change and Rising Water Demand1. There is an urgent need to develop better climate forecasting models to boost contingency planning.2. There is a need to introduce rainwater harvesting techniques, soil moisture conservation techniques, and improved storage systems, particularly

for domestic users in the dry zone.3. Many of the ancient reservoirs (tanks) are in urgent need of repair.4. Water transfer schemes (pipelines) from wet zone to dry zone are needed.5. A shift away from H.E.P to alternative non-carbon energy (wind and solar).6. The development of crop adaptation strategies:

• Rice resistant to higher temperatures and drought,• Faster growing rice,• Replacing rice with high yielding field crops,• Introduction of drought resistant tea plants.

ConclusionAll three countries experience tropical monsoon climates and will experience increasing physical pressures on supply from climate change, which will only be exacerbated by growing demands from their populations. What strategies can you think of for the future?

Further ReadingSelected Referencesa. For a range of resources from The International Water Management Institute (based in Colombo) browse www.iwmi.cgiar.orgb. Also, Water Aid is a good general site to trawl through.c, Food, water, and energy security in South Asia: A nexus perspective from the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: G Rasul.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114000239

1. PakistanUnderstanding Pakistan’s water security nexushttps://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/164380/PW88-Understanding%20Pakistan%C2%B9s%20Water-Security%20Nexus_0.pdf

2. NepalClimate Change In: Impacts and Adaptive Strategies http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/world-resources-report/climate-change-nepal-impacts-and-adaptive-strategies

Nepal on the brink of water insecurityhttp://www.scidev.net/south-asia/water/news/nepal-on-the-brink-of-water-insecurity.html

Key Water Issues: Nepalhttp://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/regions/asia/south-asia-region/nepal/key-water-issues/

3. Sri LankaFuture of water and agriculture in Sri Lanka in the face of climate change slidesharehttp://www.slideshare.net/globalwaterpartnership/4-n-eryagama-gwp-iwmi-ws

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources In Sri Lanka; IWMIhttp://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/IWMI_Research_Reports/PDF/PUB135/RR135.pdf

Acknowledgements: This Geo Factsheet was researched and written by Phil Brighty (who has worked across South Asia and, specifically, in Sri Lanka) and published in January 2017 by Curriculum Press, Bank House, 105 King Street, Wellington, TF1 1NU. Geo Factsheets may be copied free of charge by teaching staff or students, provided that their school is a registered subscriber. No part of these Factsheets may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any other form or by any other means, without the prior permission of the publisher. ISSN 1351-5136