geoff mulgan - six winter school 2011
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What future for social innovation? Geoff Mulgan
All knowledge is about the past But some trends more likely than
others The future can disturb the present We usually overestimate how much
can change short-term and underestimate how much can change long-term.
J U
Some usual suspects …
• Climate change
• Ageing and isolation
• Diversity and conflict
• Chronic disease and disability
• Rapid urbanisation
• Terror
Look for places that may signal the future ….
Hammarby Sjöstad, Sweden
Masdar City
BedZED, the UK
‘The future’s already here – it’s just unevenly distributed’
William Gibson
Look for numbers and trends that may signal the future ….
Population rises – and levels off
Energy prices (and other resource prices) go up
Education grows everywhere
Chinese become rich
China accumulates capital
CO2 emissions continue to rise
17
Systems redesign , eg smart grids for energy
Look for patterns that may grow demand for social innovation ….
Longer lives after 65Y
ea
rs r
em
ain
ing
aft
er
65
Source: US DHHS
Longer periods of later life in poor health
Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and EU–healthy life expectancy at birth, Great Britain 1981–2006
Source: ONS
US Congressional Budget Office: projections forecast total spending on health care will rise from 16% of GDP in 2007 to 25% in 2025, 37% in 2050 and 49% in 2082.
European Union ageing predicted to drive public spending up by about 4 percentage points between 2004 and 2050.
The purchasing power of the 60+ generation in Germany will grow to over 40% by 2050
Ageing as a source of growth
More living alone: will loneliness become a pressing issue?
Health spend as % GDP versus adult mortality rate
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
40 60 80 100 120
Hea
lth
sp
end
as
% G
DP
Adult mortality rate
Source: OECD Health Data 2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
% g
row
th i
n s
har
e o
f G
DP
(p
.a.)
% improvement in mortality rate (p.a.)
Change in health spend share of GDP versus % improvement in adult mortality rate
Look for dynamics ….
SIX service dynamics Dynamics of consumption: positive elasticities of
demand for services including health, education, tourism, leisure
Dynamics of production: relative productivity effects of manufacturing affecting relative prices of services
Dynamics of technology: new business models combining manufacturing and services
Dynamics of environments within which services are provided: particularly important for health
Dynamics of globalisation: some services become organised globally, with global divisions of labour, markets and trade, and other services remain localised.
Dynamics of knowledge which becomes key source of power
Look for new combinations ….
Look for values ….
Source: Inglehart/WVSPersonal values moving toward self-expression
Socia
l valu
es a
re in
cre
asin
gly
secu
lar
/ ra
tion
al
Carry forward the innovation revolution
Elberfelder Farbenfabriken vorm. Friedrich Bayer & Co
Open innovation
Social innovation
Innovation in servicesUser innovation
Bell Labs, Holmdel, NJ
20 year vision
Social innovation integral to economic strategies and equivalent attention to that for science and technology
Networks of strong institutions – labs, funds, incubators, experimental zones – all linked by open data
Confident civil society at the forefront of solving social problems
We usually overestimate what can change short-term, and underestimate
what can change long-term