geoffrey i. scott professor and chair dept. of env. health ... · v hollisae 85 7 5 … v...

University of South Carolina

“Coastal Development and Climate Change: A Recipe for

Disaster for Coastal Ecosystems and Human Health”

Geoffrey I. Scott

Professor and Chair

Dept. of Env. Health Sciences

Director of the NIEHS Center on Oceans and Human

Health and Climate Change Interactions

Arnold School of Public Health


Columbia, SC 29208

(email: [email protected]; Phone: 803/777-8964)

mailto:[email protected]

Collaborators

❑ NOAA, NOS, NCCOS, Coastal Center for Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research and Hollings Marine Laboratory, Center of Excellence in Oceans and Human Health Research

Mike Fulton, Marie De Lorenzo, Paul Pennington, Fred Holland, Anne Blair, Ed Wirth and Paul Sandifer

❑ University of South Carolina, Arnold School of Public Health and Baruch Institute

Tom Chandler, Sean Norman, John Ferry, Tim Shaw, Kara Clyburn, Stacie Gantz, Saurabh Chatterjee and Dwayne Porter

❑ Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments, Environment Canada

Terry Biddleman

❑ NOAA, National Climate Data Center

Thomas C. Peterson

Urbanization in

Coastal Ecosystems

❑ Globally > 55% of the world’s population lives within 50 miles

of the coast, 33 of the 50 largest cities in the world are located

in coastal areas & more than 80% of world commerce is

transported by ships (Dean, 1997)

❑ Half of the US population (>141 million people) reside within

50 miles of the coast, which occupies less than 11% of the

land area of the lower 48 states (NOAA, 1999; 2005)

❑ U.S. population has increased by 33 million (28%) since 1980

and is expected to increase by anther 12 million by 2015

(Crossett et al.; 2004)

❑ PEW COMMSSION: 25% of all conversion of rural land into

suburban/urban land use in the last 300 years for the U.S. has

occurred in the 15 year period from 1982-1997 (NRI, 2000)

Consequences of Differences in Economic and Population Growth on the Coastal Zone

• Thus there is 5.19 times more commercial development/land area in the coastal zone and 5.38 times more people/land area in the coastal zone

• Both economic and urban development may result in increased emissions of air and water pollution.

• Thus there will be increased impacts to the environment quality in coastal zone and coastal communities as a result = May Impact Both Ecosystem and Human Health

Urbanization in

Coastal Ecosystems

❑ This influx of people, and the associated residential and commercial development of the coastal zone has resulted in significant modification of landscapes such as increased imperviousness.

❑ Major alterations of the hydrological cycle, which change the transport and delivery of water to coastal watersheds.

❑ This in turn results in increased discharges of toxic chemicals (pesticides, trace metals, PAHs, personal care products, and pharmaceuticals), nutrients, and microbes.

Urbanization: Human Activity on

Land Ultimately Affects Water

Quality & Coastal Ecosystem Health

❑ Land Use activity may impact water quality

❑ Altered or Impacted water quality may in turn impact ecosystem health and human health

❑ Impacts – Increased levels of Harmful Algal Blooms, Human Health Microbes, & Contaminants of Emerging Concern

Reported Major Marine Ecological Disturbances (1970-1996) — Labrador to Venezuela

Urbanization in

Coastal Ecosystems

❑ COASTAL CONDITION REPORT: 44% of Estuarine

Ecosystems were impaired primarily due to NPS pollution

(EPA, 2012)

❑ Bricker et al. (1999) similarly has reported that 67% of

our estuaries and bays in the U.S. are moderately or

severely impacted by eutrophication

❑ In 2005 > 35,000 beach advisories or closures occurred

in the U.S. (EPA, 2005)

❑ > 40% of the shellfish beds in the U.S. had harvest

restrictions resulting from urban runoff, discharges from

septic tanks, runoff from animal feedlots and wildlife

pollution sources (EPA, 2001)

South Atlantic Bight

❑ The greatest rate of

population change has

been in the southeastern

US (58% increase)

followed by the Pacific

(46%) & Gulf of Mexico

(45%) coastal regions

(Crossett et al., 2004)

❑ Southeastern U.S.

includes FL, GA, SC & NC

Fastest Growing Municipalities on the East Coast –Myrtle Beach, Charleston and Hilton Head

(Charleston Post & Courier 03/27/14)

Myrtle Beach,Charleston &Hilton Head


Population Trends Along the

South Carolina Coast

Effects of Lot Size on

Imperviousness

Effects of Imperviousness on

Water Quality (Schuler et. al. 1992)

Summary: Urbanization Effects

Impervious Cover (%)

Po

pu

lati

on

De

ns

ity (

#/h

a)

P<0.001, R2=0.81

0 20 40 60 800

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

NC

SC

GA

Population Density vs. Impervious Cover

Lo

g o

f F

ec

al C

oli

form


r2 = 0.6342

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Fecal Bacteria vs. Impervious Cover

-2

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0

ER

MQ

(L

og

)


0 20 40 60 80 100

r2 =0.52 p <0.0001High

Low

suburban

reference

urban

Chemical Contamination vs.

Impervious Cover

Hydrographic Characteristics

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Ru

no

ff (m

3/s

/km

2).

.

Time (h)

Urban

Forested

Suburban

Health and

Welfare

Physical-

Chemical

Changes

Altered Land Cover

Increased Impervious

Cover

Living

Resources

Coastal

Development

Activities

Impaired Water Quality &

Hydrography

Reduced Biological

Productivity

Altered Food Webs

Chemical Contamination Impaired Animal

Health

Microbial and Pathogen

Contamination

Increased Population

Density

Vulnerability to Flooding

Quality of Place

Beach and Shellfish

Bed Closures

Urbanization Effects on

Coastal Ecosystems

Human

ResponseStressor Exposure Ecological

Response

Climate Change Interactions

with Urbanization??

10-20% Impervious

Cover

20-30% Impervious

Cover

10-30% Impervious

Cover

Pollution Effects and Urbanization

Urbanization Effects Climate Change

❑ Carbon Cycle

❑ How Will Future Climate

Change Effects Interact

with Current Known

Urbanization Effects?

❑ Hydrological Cycle

❑ Nitrogen Cycle

❑ Phosphorous Cycle

Hypoxia (lack of oxygen) and Eutrophication (increased nutrients)are Common Results

NAS (2010) Monitoring Climate

Change Impacts

GLOBAL WARMING

❑ Present level of CO2 are >400 ppm, which has increased by

25% since the start of the industrial revolution & has

increased by 12% since 1960.

❑ This CO2 increase has caused a 1 degree F increase in

global temperatures during the 20th century.

❑ Projections are for CO2 levels to double by 2050 which will

increase global temperatures by 1.5 - 4.5 degrees F.

Source: Roston, Eric and Blacki Migliozzi, 2015

GLOBAL Climate Change:

Green House Gases

% Atmospheric

Gas Contribution Conc. (ppm)

CO2 55% 405

CFCs 24% (12,000X more potent than CO2 & increasing @ 5%/year)

CH4 15% 2ppm (20X more potent than CO2

& increasing @ 1%/year)

NO 6% ppb conc.(>0.25%/yr)

Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2

record

22FIFRA SAP, Washington, D.C., December 7, 2010 22

Sources of Information(Dr. Thomas C. Peterson

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center)

• Global climate change impacts on the United States

– June 2009 and 2014 Reports

– Intense peer-review

– Intense public-review

– Available from

• www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts

23FIFRA SAP, Washington, D.C., December 7, 2010

• About 1/3 of the CO2 from fossil fuel burning remains in the atmosphere after 100 years

• About 1/5 of it remains after 1000 years

A bit about emission scenarios

• Recent carbon dioxide emissions are, in fact, above the highest emissions scenario developed by the IPCC

How May Climate Change Affect

These Ocean Health Threats?

❑ Climate may directly affect growth, survival,

persistence, distribution, transmission, and virulence

of disease-causing organisms and harmful algal

blooms and distribution and concentrations of

chemical contaminants in coastal and ocean waters.

❑ Climate may also affect the distribution of disease

vectors, including marine organisms.

❑ Major climate factors are temperature, precipitation

(and associated drought, flooding, and runoff), sea

level rise, salinity, extreme weather events, and

ecological shifts.

Recent Changes in Global Temperature


Projected Temperature Change (°F) from 1961-1979 Baseline

A tendency to have more warming in the middle of continents

Higher Emissions Scenario

Present-Day Change(1993-2007)

Near-Term Projected Change(2011-2029)

Lower Emissions Scenario

Mid-Century (2041-2059 average) End of Century (2081-2099 av.)Partly due to: • More drying due to increased

evaporation


Moving states

Even higher emission scenario

IPCC PREDICTED ECOSYSTEM IMPACTS

OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

•Increased temperatures (warmer

nights and fewer colder days)

•Increased heat waves

•Increased Heavy Precipitation Events

•Increased Periods of Drought

•Increased Tropical Cyclone Activity

•Increased Sea Level Rise

•Overall increased extreme weather

GLOBAL CHANGE IN SURFACE

TEMPERATURES, 1970-2004

Increased Temperature

Global Warming

Effects

Ecosystem/Ecologic

al Response

Interactions with Known

Coastal Urbanization

Effects

Increased

Temperature

Increased melting of

polar ice

Increased release of Hg, Pb,

DDT, and other contaminants

into air and surface waters of

boreal ecosystems

Increased thermal

stress

Enhanced toxicity of many

emerging contaminants of

concern (EECs) in

combination with elevated

temperatures

Ecological shifts of

marine organisms

Increased occurrences of

marine animal diseases and

human illness/diseases

associated with microbes and

harmful algal blooms


Observed and Projected Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones

Climate change is already impacting plant hardiness zones

20061990

Lower

Emissions

Scenario

by 2090

Higher

Emissions

Scenario

by 2090Source: USDA

Source: National

Arbor Day

Foundation

Vibrios: Naturally Occurring

Harmful Bacteria

❑ V. cholerae occurs in US waters too!

❑ Vp and Vv most common cause of seafood poisonings -underreported, misdiagnosed and increasing

❑ Vv can result in death ~ 200 ‘89 - ‘04 & 5 confirmed deaths related to Katrina; associated with 95% of fatalities associated with seafood consumption. 50-60% fatality rate for susceptible individuals; wound infections kill 20-30% of healthy individuals affected.

❑ Vp estimated at 8,000 cases per year, but this is thought to be very low due to under reporting; Not Officially Reported to CDC until 2007; Outbreaks all over the US including 1st time in Alaska in 2004.

❑ Vibrio infection rates have increased 41% over the last decade.

❑ Rate of Antibiotic Resistance in Vibrios has increased 31% over the past decade (Colwell et al, 2009)

Vibrio cholerae

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp)

Vibrio vulnificus (Vv)

Vibrio parahaemolyticus and

Climate Change

❑ Current published literature has already established the US northern

geographic range extension of Vibrios into southern coast of Alaska from

Vancouver, British Columbia, which is approximately 2000 km further north than

previously documented (McLaughlin et al, 2005).

❑ McLaughlin et al. (2005) identified the source of a Vibrio parahaemolyticus

outbreak on a cruise ship as consumption of oysters produced on a farm in Alaska

where this bacteria had not been observed previously detected.

❑ Between 1997 and 2004, temperatures at the Alaskan oyster farm increased

0.21°C each year during July and August, and all the infected oysters were

harvested when the average daily temperature was above 15°C. Interestingly, the

average daily temperature was 15°C or greater during July and August of 2004 in

Alaska for the first time recorded (McLaughlin et al., 2005).

❑ Review by Baker-Austin et al. 2012 (Environmental Microbiology Reports 2(1):

:7- 18) reports range extension for Vibrios into the North Sea in Europe.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreak in Alaska

Increasing Vibrio Illness in the Baltic Sea: 1985-2010

Vibrio Infections and Morbidty

Vibrio Species

Gastroenteritis

(%)

Wound Infection

(%)

Septicemia

(%)

Miscellaneous

(%)

V parahaemolyticus 59 34 5 2

V vulnificus 5 45 43 7

Non-01 V cholerae 67 9 15 …

V alginolyticus 5-12 71 1 10-15

V mimicus 85 3 3 …

V fluvialis 73 10 6 …

V damsela Rare >95 Rare …

V furnissii >90 Rare Rare …

Vibrio metschnikovii Common Rare Rare …

V hollisae 85 7 5 …

V cincinnatiensis Rare Rare Rare Meningitis

Ho et al., 2004. CDC

Vibrio Infections in the US 2019(CDC, 2019)

• Vibriosis causes an estimated 80,000 illnesses and 100 deaths in the United States every year according to the CDC in 2019.

• People with Vibriosis become infected by consuming raw or undercooked seafood or exposing a wound to seawater.

• About 52,000 (65%) of these illnesses are estimated to be the result of eating contaminated food and most of the remaining 44% of cases are wound infections.

• The most commonly reported species, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, is estimated to cause 45,000 illnesses (56%) each year in the United States

• Most infections occur from May through October when water temperatures are warmer.

Vibrio Illnesses in the US 2014(CDC, COVIS)

Nu

mb

er

of

Ca

se

s

V. vulnificus Cases and Effects of Temperatures > 20oC (Martinez et al. 2010. Food Research International, Volume 43 (7): 1780-1790)

Changing Nature of Seafood Illness in the US: 1973-2006

Vibrio Illnesses in FL, 1998-2007

(Weis et al., 2011. Epidemiol. Infect. 139: 591-598)

Vibrio Illness in the US 2014(CDC, COVIS)

(Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance (COVIS) System)

43

Harmful Algal Blooms

(HABs)

Historical Comparison of PSP

PSP = Paralytic Shellfish Poisonings

45

Alexandrium catenella

❑ Evidence for accelerated growth when water temperatures >13°C

Nishitani and Chew (1984): Aquaculture

Moore et al. (in review): Environmental Health

Case Study: Rising Temperatures

Increase Window For HAB Growth In

Puget Sound

HABs in the US 2007-2011 Reported by CDC in HABISS

(Source: Backer et al. 2015. Toxins 7: 1048-1064 )

96.7% of HABs occur in Freshwater

Toledo, Ohio: Closure of Drinking Water for City in Aug., 2014

• The water supply in Toledo, Ohio, was closed for drinking by residents in August, 2014. > 500,000 people were affected by this closure.

• The warning came after tests at one treatment plant showed readings for microcystin above the standard for consumption, most likely from algae on Lake Erie. Ohio Gov. John Kasich declared a state of emergency.

• As the threat in Toledo passes, the event has left many wondering if it could happen again, especially because an estimated 25 million people in the United States live near the Great Lakes.


Algal Blooms in the Great Lakes

Note Bloom in Lake Erie in 2014, the shallowest of the Great Lakes

Extent and Magnitude of the Problem in the US

• EPA found there are > 123,000 lakes > 10 acres in size in the US and 33% have CHAB blooms in them.

• U.S. EPA testing in 2007 found detectable levels of microcystin in 7 of 19 Ohio lakes tested (37%).

• The water supply in Toledo, Ohio, was closed for drinking by residents in August, 2014. > 500,000 people were affected by this closure.

• Florida, 2016 – Health Emergencies in 4 counties

• EPA Guidelines - 0.3 micrograms per liter (ug/L) for microcystin and 0.7 ug/L for cylindrospermopsin as the level not to be exceeded in drinking water for children younger than “school age. Levels of 1.6 ug/L for microcystin and 3.0 ug/L for

cylindrospermopsin for all other age groups.

• Causes of these CHAB blooms include dams, climate change, and increased runoff of nutrients from urbanization and agriculture.

• Preventing of Climate Change and Eutrophication are paramount in controlling this problem with CHABs


• Nearly a decade of water quality data for trend analysis

• Planning to relate the findings to decadal changes in watershed land use

Raleigh

Durham

Land use - 2006

(most recent data

available for GIS

mapping)

(<20% impervious)

(>20% impervious)

8 km 0

0 5 miles

Map: Stacie Flood, NCSU CAAE, from NLCD 2006 data

Falls Lake Watershed, Raleigh, NC

Microcystis aeruginosa

Cylindrospermopsis

raciborskii

Raphidiopsis curvata Cylindrospermopsis philippinensis

Anabaena spp.

87,000 cells / mL

Potentially toxic cyanobacteria (max. abundance)

270,000 cells / mL

41,000 cells / mL

1,000 cells / mL 23,000 cells / mL

Anabaena circinalis

Falls LakeDrinking water for 0.5 million people

LMs: E. Allen

Toxins Produced Type of

Toxin

Target Organ Onset of symptoms

Anatoxin-a

Neurotoxins

Nervous SystemLabored breathing, convulsions,

numbness, paralysis and death

Dog deaths caused by Anatoxin-a

Minutes to hoursSaxitoxins

Microcystins Hepatotoxin

LiverGI symptoms, elevated liver

enzymes in blood, death of cells,

destruction of blood vessels

Hours to days

Cylindrospermopsins HepatotoxinLiver and KidneysSymptoms like food

poisoning/Pos. kidney failure

Hours to days

CyanoToxins

Lake Wateree

Lake Wateree


Oldest man-made lake in SC (1919) with 242 miles (389 km) of shoreline

Population Growth1-2%/Year (75 yr. DT)

Lake Wateree: Water Watch Sampling Sites

(Kara Clyburn, 2018. MS Thesis)

City Lake, High Point – Plectonema (Lyngbya) wollei

saxitoxin producer

LM: Speziale; Photos E. Allen

2017LAKE

WATEREEALGAE STUDY

JUNE 29, 2017

SEPTEMBER 28, 2017

JUNE 2017

SEPTEMBER

2017

OVERLAP

(Stacie Gantz, 2018. MS Thesis)

Are HABs Becoming the Greatest Inland Water Threat to Public Health

(Source: Ravencroft, J. 2016. Update on Development of Recreational WQC for Cyanotoxins. EPA Office of Water)

627.7 ug/L

20.0 ug/L

0.2 - 42,000 ug/L

Incidental Water Consumption During Contact Recreation

• EPA evaluated studies (n=6) which measured recreational water ingestion.

• Microcystin Human Health Drinking Water Criteria for Children – 0.3 (<6 years old) -1.60 (>6 years old) ug/L (Consuming 2-4L/day = 0.6 -1.2ug (<6) & 3.2-6.4 ug (>6))

(Average water conc. = 627.7 ug/L X 0.016L = > 10 ug)

(Average water conc. = 627.7 ug/L X 0.037L = > 23 ug)

Toxic Algae in FL: May- July 2016

Toxic Algae in the St Lucie River in Stuart,FL: May- July 2


Correlation Between CHAB Blooms and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

CHAB Bloom Coverage Fatty Liver Disease & CHABs

(Source: Zhang et al. 2015. Env. Health 14: 41-52)

(61% of US Counties Have CHABs and for Every 1% increase in CHABs Results in a 0.3% Increase in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease)

Red Tide Spread to Florida's Atlantic Coast Affecting Some of the Most Popular Beaches

• The red tide bloom that's been in the waters off Florida's Gulf Coast for months is now choking the state's Atlantic waters from Miami Beach to Palm Beach.

• Trey Claus, whose family has been commercial fishing off southeastern Florida for three generations, has never seen anything like it -- and neither has anyone he knows. "This might put a halt to our season, which is not a good thing," Claus, 30, said.

• In Miami-Dade County, public beaches that had been closed because of red tide announced Mayor Carlos Gimenez, who’d closed some beaches "in an abundance of caution.“

• "Please bear in mind that the Florida Department of Health advises people with severe or chronic respiratory conditions, such as asthma, to avoid red tide areas," the mayor said in a statement.

NAFLD: Hepatic Manifestation of Metabolic Syndrome

Source: American Gastroenterology Association, 2014

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi7m_31wOfWAhWF5IMKHYdfBhoQjRwIBw&url=https://kmadsblog.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/why-i-was-diagnosed-with-nonalcoholic-fatty-liver-disease-as-a-thin-21-year-old-female/&psig=AOvVaw00VhAN2J_QdmmWn03RefSL&ust=1507774647167596

Microcystin-Exposure in NAFLD Mice Leads to Stellate Cell Activation in the Liver (Pre Fibrotic Stage)

Healthy+ Microcystin NAFLD + Microcystin

NAFLDHealthy Controls

Alpha-Smooth Muscle Actin (marker for activated stellate cells)

Microcystin exposure Leads to Increased Glomerular Inflammation in NAFLD-kidney

Alpha-SMA is a marker for mesangial cell activation crucial for glomerular inflammation

Healthy NAFLD

NAFLD + MicrocystinHealthy+ Microcystin

20X 20X

20X20X

α-SMA α-SMA

α-SMA α-SMA

Train citizen scientists to:

• identify algal species

• analyze water samples for HAB toxins

• identify temporal and geographic HAB trends

• PMN started in 2001 as part of Marine Biotoxins Program in Charleston, SC

• Over 100 active sites in 14 coastal states

PHYTOPLANKTON MONITORING NETWORK

NATIONAL CENTERS FOR COASTAL OCEAN SCIENCE

Science Serving Coastal Communities

PMN sample

sitesCurrently in 12

coastal states plus 8 inland states

>100 volunteers

Over 130,000 data points submitted

since 2001

1. Collect whole water live

samples (125mL & 1L)

- wear gloves!

2. TEMPs- air and water

3. Optional info-- Observe and record surrounding conditions (wind, tide, weather)

- Other important observations: discoloration and/or smell of water

Field Sampling – Summary

69

HAB Forecast System:

Early Warning to

Protect Human Health

Observations

Model Output

HAB Bulletin (managers)

Conditions Report (public)

Synthesis

and Analysis

A harmful algal bloom has been identified in patches from southern Lee to central Collier County. Patchy very low impacts are possible from southern Lee County to central Collier County today through Thursday. No other impacts are expected.

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/habf

Current Experimental Vibrio Forecast Products

Nowcasts and 3 day forecast – UMCES and NOAA

14 and monthly forecasts - UMD ESSIC

14 day Monthly

Monitoring Program

Statistical Modeling

Forecasts and other Products

Management application

Research/ gap

analysis

Increased Sea Level Rise

Global Warming

Effects

Ecosystem/Ecologic

al Response

Interactions with Known

Coastal Urbanization

Effects

Sea Level Rise Increased coastal

flooding and subsidence

Destruction of coastal

property/commerce, including

infrastructure such as drinking

water supplies and waste water

treatment facilities & altered

pathogen distributions

Extreme Weather Increased runoff and

drought

Enhanced exposure of marine

organisms and humans to

chemical contaminants,

microbes and nutrients

Greater number of shellfish and

beach closures

Greater susceptibility of older

coastal population

Altered Salinity

Regimens

Increased

osmoregulation stress

Enhanced toxicity of many EECs

Climate Change Sea Level Rise


Global Climate Change:

Sea Level Rise Effects

❑ Sea Level Rise

- Normal Eustatic Sea Level Rise – 10-20 cm/100 years (4-8 inches)

-With 1.5-4.5 Degree F Increase – 70-100cm/100 year rise (28-40 inches)

❑ Coastal Land Use Vulnerable to Flooding

Commercial Land Use Suburban Land Use

125/29 91/28

9/9

8/11

67/25

22/26

40/2488/65

45/28

Total Vv/Vp densities in surface water measured monthly from April-October 2012

Vibrio vulnificus Algorithm

❑ V. vulnificus densities were correlated against water quality

variables.

❑ The multi-linear regression model values for the

environmental variables in relation to Vibrio vulnificus

densities were as follows:

• Conductivity (P< 0.0001)

• Turbidity (P< 0.0001)

• Temperature (P=0.0654)

The multiple linear model using these water quality

variables explained 62% of Vibrio vulnificus distributions..

Surface Salinity IntrusionPRISM2 Model

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA) and South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium (SCSGC). 2012. Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas under Future Climatic and Sea Level Conditions. Columbia, SC. Available online at www.cisa.sc.edu.

Conrads, PA, EA Roehl, RC Daamen, and JB Cook, 2013. Simulation of salinity intrusion along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts using climate-change scenarios, U.S. Geological Survey: 92 p., and 95 apps.

http://www.cisa.sc.edu/

Source: Conrads et al (2013)

• We used five different GCMs – spanning a range of predictions• Two simulation periods

• Historic 1981 – 2010• Future 2041 – 2070

Climate Downscaling for the Watershed Model

Predicted Increase in Specific Conductance in Winyah Bay with Sea Level Rise

Winyah Bay Station WR 4: Future Vibrio vulnificus Abundances with different Sea Level

Rise Predictions

US Bacterial Illness Increase 2012 vs. 2006-2008


Impacts of Pathogens

❑ Pathogens may cause disease in humans from consumption of food, drinking water and contact recreation, such as swimming. Effects may include gastrointestinal effects, upper respiratory illness and would infections.

❑ The health consequences due to marine-borne pathogens in the USA have annual costs on the order of $900 million (Ralston et al., 2011).

❑ This includes:

• $350 million due to pathogens and marine toxins specifically identified as

causing food-borne disease,

• $300 million due to seafood-borne disease with unknown etiology,

• $300 million due to gastrointestinal illness from beach recreation and

• $30 million from direct exposure to the Vibrio species (Ralston et al., 2011).

Antibiotic Resistance in Vibrio

parahaemolyticus

(Baker–Austin et al., 2008. Journal of Food Protection 71:2552)

A Comparison of Vibrio Illnesses and the Use ofAntibiotics in Livestock

Vibrio Illnesses World-Wide

Deaths Attributable to AMR in 2015

(Reference: O’neill, J. 2014. The Review of Antimicrobial Resistance. Study directed by UK Prime Minister)

Antibiotics in Shrinking Supplies

Number of New Antimicrobial Approved by FDA Since 1983


Global Climate Change:

Energy Policy Options

❑ Improved Energy Efficiencies in cars and other facets of energy production ( i.e. car mileage of 45 mpg = reduce CO2 levels by 40%)

❑ Replace fossil fuels with “Soft Path (renewable) Technologies” such as solar, wind power & biofuels

❑ Replace all coal fired power plants – 14 % reduction in CO2 but will cost $144B/year & would require building a new plant every 2.5 days until 2025

❑ Reverse Forest Loss (absorbs CO2)

❑ Reduce CFC Emissions

❑ Tax Fossil Fuels (Coal> Oil > Natural Gas)

❑ Diversification of Energy Production including Nuclear Options

The Great Transition (2015)

Lester Brown

❑ Author of 51 Books - Documents evidence of our transition from fossil

fuels to renewable energy sources

❑ Evidence of the transition:

- Nations are increasing renewable energy – Denmark (34%), Spain and

Portugal (20%)

- US States are increasing renewable energy – Iowa and South Dakota

(26%) and Texas (10%)

- From 2010-2014, the number of coal plants in the US generating energy

was reduced from 500 to 343 (>25% reduction)

- 2007-2013 China Coal use declined 18%

- 1994-2013, the number of gas stations in the US decreased from

203,000 to 153,000 (>25% reduction)

Natural Disasters 1950-2012(Sandifer & Heyward-Walker. 2018. Frontiers in Public Health 6: 373)

Note the Significant Increase in Climate Related Disasters since the 1970’s

Recent Disasters in the US • U.S. has experienced 230 weather- or climate-related (“natural”) disasters that each

exceeds $1 Billion in damages since1980, with a total economic cost of $1.5 Trillion.

• These include hurricanes and other severe storms, tornados, droughts, freezes, & wildfires.

• Recent Examples:

• 2005, the U.S. suffered $160 B in disaster damage, of which some $85 B as well as>1,800 deaths were the result of Hurricane Katrina alone.

• 2010, the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill led to the single largest technologically-based environmental disaster in US history, with the responsible parties (RPs) paying some $62 B to address damages.

• 2012, the U.S. sustained approximately $110 B in damages and 377 deaths from 11 major weather disasters including Hurricane Sandy.

• 2017 brought the highest costs to date for weather- and climate-associated disasters, some $306 B total, from sixteen > $1 B impact events/event groups including three incidents —Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, which accounted for 86.6% of the economic losses and the large majority of deaths.

• 2018, Wildfires in California >$100B?? (e.g. Paradise Fire killing 71 and burning > 12,000 Homes = $6-$12B in Lost Homes alone, not including personal property lost)

• 2018, Mudflows from Wildfires Areas in CA caused at least $177 million in property

damage, $7 million in emergency responses and another $43 million to clean-up =

$227M Total

CONCLUSION: Climate Change

CONCLUSIONS: Climate Change

NIH Funded Oceans and Human Health Center at USC

• Center for the Assessment and Prediction of the Interactions

of Climate Change on Oceans and Human Health (CAPICC-OHH)

• Focus: The Center’s main purpose will be to assess the effects

of ocean health-related illness and disease and then to use this

information to develop prevention strategies against ocean-

related illness and disease to better protect public health. Our

specific focus will be on climate change-related factors that may

enhance the presence, abundance and virulence of Vibrio

Bacteria and Freshwater Harmful Algal Blooms on ecosystem

and human health

92

OHH Center: Organization

• Administrative Core – Drs. Geoff Scott & Paul Sandifer (CofC)

• Microbiology – Drs. Sean Norman*, Alan Decho and Geoff Scott (USC)

• Harmful Algal Blooms – Drs. Bryan Brooks*, Thad Scott and Scott James (Baylor); Steve Morton (NOAA)

• Chemistry – Drs. John Ferry*, Susan Richardson & Tim Shaw

• Toxicology – Drs. Saurabh Chatterjee*, Jamie Lead, Shuo Xiao & Bo Cai (USC) ; John Weinstein (The Citadel), Mark Monaco (NOAA NST and Mussel Watch)

• Community Engagement Core – Drs. Dwayne Porter* & Daniela Friedman (USC), Heath Kelsey (UMD), Omar Mohammed (LAMC) & Ken Moore (ISSC)

* Project/Core Leads93

Microbiology – Vibrio and Enterococcus

Multifactorial Experiments – TemperatureSalinity, pH, N/P & Trace Metals = Identify Factors Increasing Antibiotic Resistance

Develop Predictive Vibrio Algorithms ThatInclude Virulence and Abundance =Enhanced Vibrio Forecast

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

Freshwater HABs

Multifactorial Experiments – TemperatureSalinity, pH, N/P, & Trace Metals = Identify Factors Increasing Toxin Production /Growth

Develop Predictive Vibrio Algorithms ThatInclude Increased Conditions for Growth & Toxin Production = Enhanced HAB Forecasts

Chemistry and ToxicologyToxins and Exposure Assessment – HABs, Microplastics and Mixtures plus Vibrio Challenges

Human Health – NAFLD , Kidney, Microbiome, Blood Brain Barrier and Reproduction →NIH

Ecotox – Oysters and Shrimp (Seafood Safety) → ISSC, NOAA

Community Engagement Core• Enhanced Understanding of Climate Change Effects on HABs and Vibrios and Human Disease• Ecoforecasts for HABs and Vibrios That Prevent Exposure and Protect Health (EJ, LAMC)

Administrative Core

94


CONTACT INFORMATION

Dr. Geoffrey I. Scott

Professor and Chair

Dept. of Env. Health Sciences

Director of the NIEHS Funded Center on Oceans

and Human Health and Climate Change interactions

Arnold School of Public Health


PHRC 401E, 921 Assembly Street

Columbia, SC 29208

Email: [email protected]; Phone: 803/777-8964

mailto:[email protected]