george barna american culture & faith institute november 7, 2013
TRANSCRIPT
George BarnaAmerican Culture & Faith InstituteNovember 7, 2013
A Perspective on the State of the Tea Party
2
1. Current Standing of the Tea Party2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities3. Challenges Going Forward
Three Perspectives…
3
1. Current Standing of the Tea Party2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities3. Challenges Going Forward
Three Perspectives…
4Data from October 2013
17%
83%
Not AwareAware
National Awareness of Tea Party
5Data from October 2013
Adults
Republicans
Conservatives
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
28%
46%
45%
Tea Party Favorability Rating
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Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Harry Reid
Tea Party
John Boehner
Ted Cruz
Congress
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
57
48
45
31
28
28
27
24
23
Percent Favorable
Where the Tea Party Lines Up: National Favorability Ratings (Oct. 2013)
7Data from October 2013
21% are supporters
Size of the Movement
8Data from October 2013
28% say the TP reflects the views of most Americans60% say it does not
19% say they agree with the TP movement48% have no opinion
37% say the TP Movement is good for the country52% of conservatives66% of Republicans87% of TP supporters44% of adults say it is bad for the country…
Tea Party as a Reflection of America
9Data from September 2013
Support Oppose No Opinion0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
38%
7%
55%
Republican Support for the TP
10Data from Sept. - Oct. 2013
55% are favorable toward the Republican Party43% are unfavorable
52% say Tea Party is a separate, independent movement from the Republican Party51% of Republicans and 47% of all adults agree
Tea Party “Member”Support for Republican Party
11Data from July 2013
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion0
10
20
30
40
50
60
50%
8%
42%
Perceptions AmongConservative Protestant Pastors
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High name recognitionBelow average substantive awarenessLimited voter empathyLimited support among registered
RepublicansLukewarm TP support for Republican
PartyAbove average favor with conservative
pastors
Summary of the Tea Party’s Current Standing
13
1. Current Standing of the Tea Party2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities3. Challenges Going Forward
Three Perspectives…
14Data from October 2013
With government performance:16% are satisfied with the way we are being
governed11% approve of the job Congress is doing17% have a great deal of confidence in our
system of government19% say they can trust the government to do
what is right always or most of the time12% feel content with our government30% are angry with our government55% are frustrated with our government
Americans are fed up with their government
15Data from May - June 2013
With government power:54% say the federal government has too much
power
62% believe the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens
Americans are fed up with their government
16Data from Sept. - Oct. 2013
Majority has different governance preferences:60% say the government is trying to do too
many things that should be left up to individuals and businesses
51% would prefer a smaller government that provides fewer services … 40% prefer a bigger government providing more services
Americans are fed up with their government
17Data from October 2013
14% are satisfied with the way things are going in our country today
14% believe things are generally headed in the right direction
64% feel that the biggest threat to the country in the future is big government
Americans are worried about the direction of the country
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2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
58
80 82 83
% AWARE
Rapid Rise of Tea Party Awareness
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IRS targeting conservative non-profitsNSA database developmentDOJ seizing reports’ phone recordsBenghazi cover upGSA money spent on gamblingAffordable Care Act NSA spying on foreign leadersAttorney General cover up on Fast &
Furious
Government Scandals and IntrusionArgue for Reduced Government
20Data from June - July 2013
56% are worried that government surveillance efforts go too far in invading personal privacy
70% believe that government data collection goes beyond anti-terrorism efforts
63% believe the government is collecting the content of phone calls and e-mails
56% say the federal courts do not provide adequate limitations on what data the government can collect
51% feel the IRS targeting conservative groups is a very important issue
Serial revelations aboutgovernment intrusion into our lives will further
erode public goodwill
21Data from October 2013
The top-rated national issues are the economy (1st) and dysfunctional government (2nd)
Household debt has dropped from $12.88 trillion in Q3 2008 to $11.15 trillion in Q2 2013
Only 11% believe the federal government has reduced spending as much as it can
Just 23% say they have seen any impact from across-the-board federal spending cuts (i.e. the sequester)
55% favored raising the debt ceiling only if the government agreed to cut spending to offset the raise
Increased fiscal conservatismamong Americans is encouraging
22Data for October of years shown; Bloomberg
1985
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
From +100 to -100
Consumer Comfort Index displays our unease with where things stand
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If 21% of adults are Tea Party supporters, that’s 50-55 million voting age peopleObama won in 2012 with 66 million votes
40% of adults claim to be conservative71% of Republicans claim to be conservative
46% of adults say they are economically conservative
Marketers and social scientists concur that a movement can have substantial impact once it reaches 12% to 15% of the population in questionTea Party is well beyond the threshold
Tea Party Constituency is Sizeable
24Data from October 2013
020406080
100
73 73 7992
38 44 5367
Tea PartyNon-TP
Tea Party Supporters Have a Distinctive Point of View
25Data from October 2013
0
30
60
9092
4455
67 69
42
Tea Party Non-Tea Party
% agree
Tea Party Supporters Have a Distinctive Point of View
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Government is unpopularPeople know things are moving in the wrong
directionWe are increasingly worried about Big
BrotherTaxpayers are trying to reign in their
spendingTaxpayers are not convinced the government
is trying to curtail its spendingTea Party has enough distinctives to stand outTea Party is large enough to change the game
Summary ofHopeful Signs and Opportunities
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1. Current Standing of the Tea Party
2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities
3. Challenges Going Forward
Three Perspectives…
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The absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus
Challenges:
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Motivate, mobilize, resource, and direct people toward a shared vision of a preferred future
Leaders…
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Strategy
Resources
People
Grassroots Movements Live or Die According to How They Handle:
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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus
Loss of momentum
Challenges:
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Three-year decline in favorability38% in 2010 … 28% in 2013
Three-year decline in self-identified supporters31% in 2010 … 21% in 2013
Plateaued national awareness81% in 2010 … 83% in 2013
Decline in support among Republicans65% in 2010 … 38% in 2013
Low proportion who say TP speaks for most AmericansJust 24%
Low proportion who say TP is improving the process37%
Bad trend lines…
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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus
Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass media
Challenges:
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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus
Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservatives
Challenges:
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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus
Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservativesAlleged absence of “intellectual rigor”
Challenges:
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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus
Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservativesAlleged absence of “intellectual rigor”Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how”
Challenges:
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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus
Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservativesAlleged absence of “intellectual rigor”Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how”Limitations in the Tea Party demographic
profile
Challenges:
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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus
Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservativesAlleged absence of “intellectual rigor”Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how”Limitations in the Tea Party demographic profileDeath of the American Dream – lowering the bar
Challenges:
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Prove your viability in 2014Same vision, new strategies and tacticsMeasure what matters and respond
accordinglyIf led properly, the Tea Party could move
beyond hit-or-miss impact to substantially altering the national political landscape
Concluding thoughts…
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