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POGO 750-013 Spring Term 2019

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George Mason University

Schar School of Policy and Government

Public Opinion and Public Policy

Bill Schneider Spring Term 2019

Founders Hall 619 Thursdays, 7:20-10:00 pm

[email protected] Founders Hall 313

Overview

The government of the United States was designed not to

work. The Constitution was written 220 years ago by leaders who

shared a deep distrust of government. They wanted it to be as

weak as possible. Hence, they devised a system with divided

powers and checks and balances. But somehow, it does work.

What makes it work is public opinion. When there is an

overwhelming sense of public urgency, all the pieces click into

place. Things get done.

This course will look at government by crisis and the way

public opinion shapes policy. Topics will include health care,

gun policy, income inequality, military intervention, terrorism

and affirmative action. The course will also look at the

dynamics that drive elections, the causes and consequences of

political polarization, the rise of political movements like

Trumpism and their policy consequences.

Course materials

Recommended for purchase:

Bill Schneider, Standoff: How America Became Ungovernable

(Simon & Schuster, 2018)

Anthony Salvanto, Where Did You Get This Number? (Simon &

Schuster 2018)

Additional readings in the course outline below will be

placed on reserve.


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Course requirements

1. Two short papers presented in class (each approximately

1,200 words)

Both papers will assess how public opinion has evolved

on an issue or topic covered in class. Has public opinion

changed on the topic or has it remained fairly constant?

One paper will be assigned (by random choice) from the

list of topics on the next page. The second paper will be

chosen by the student from the same list. Each paper is due on

the day that topic is scheduled for class discussion. Students

will give oral reports in class (20-30 minutes) on their papers.

A computer will be available in class for those who wish to use

PowerPoint in their presentations, or who wish to show charts or

video clips.

2. A final examination essay (approximately 2,000 words)

answering this question:

``There is not a liberal America and a conservative

America -- there is the United States of America.''

(Barack Obama, 2004 Democratic National Convention

Keynote Address)

From our discussion in class, do you think Obama has

been proved wrong?


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Weekly topics:

January 24 Has America Became Ungovernable?

January 31 America the Unusual

February 7 How reliable are public opinion polls?

February 14 a. Populism

b. Polarization

February 21 a. Climate change

b. National debt

February 28 a. Gun policy

b. Immigration

March 7 a. Abortion

b. Affirmative action

March 14 No class (University Spring Break)

March 21 a. Health care

b. Inequality

March 28 a. Same-sex marriage

b. Sexual harassment

April 4 a. Tax reform

b. Infrastructure spending

April 11 a. Foreign trade

b. Economy and elections

April 18 a. The press and politics

b. Presidential impeachment

April 25 a. Terrorism

b. Government surveillance

May 2 a. Russia policy

b. Military intervention


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COURSE SCHEDULE

January 24

How the U.S. Became Ungovernable

January 31

America the Unusual

Questions for discussion of the John Kingdon book will be

distributed at the first class. The book is out of print

and has become very expensive, but inexpensive second-

hand copies are usually available on Amazon. The Library

should have one or two copies on reserve.

John W. Kingdon, America the Unusual (Worth, 1999)

February 7

Public opinion and polling

Anthony Salvanto, Where Did You Get This Number? (Simon &

Schuster, 2018), chapters 1-7, 14 and Epilogue.

February 14

a. Populism

Is it liberal or conservative -- or both?

Schneider, Standoff, chapter 2.

Michael Kazin, ``Trump and American Populism.'' Foreign

Affairs, October 6, 2016.

(https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-10-

06/trump-and-american-populism)


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b. Political Polarization

What divides Americans?

Schneider, Standoff, chapter 3

Bill Bishop, The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-

Minded America is Tearing Us Apart (Houghton Mifflin, 2008),

chapter 1, ``The Age of Political Segregation''

February 21

a. Climate change

Why can't we do much about it?

Joseph Castro and LiveScience, ``Popular Opinion on Climate

Change,'' Scientific American, February 7, 2012.

(https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/popular-opinion-on-

climat/)

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and George

Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication,

``Politics and Global Warming,'' October 2017, pages 1-28.

(http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-

content/uploads/2017/12/Global-Warming-Policy-Politics-October-

2017.pdf)

b. National debt

Is it really a crisis?

Kimberly Amadeo, ``Trump and the National Debt,'' The

Balance, October 23, 2018

(https://www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-

debt-4114401)

James McBride and Jonathan Masters, ``The National Debt

Dilemma,'' Council on Foreign Relations, May 31, 2018

(https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/national-debt-dilemma)


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February 28

a. Gun policy

Why is it so difficult to pass gun laws?

Schneider, Standoff, Chapter 6, pp. 117-127.

Scott Clement, ``Public Support for Gun Restrictions Has

Grown to its Highest Level in 25 Years,'' Washington Post, March

14, 2018.

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-

fix/wp/2018/03/14/public-support-for-gun-restrictions-has-grown-

to-the-highest-level-in-25-years/?utm_term=.196eee3ffba2)

b. Immigration

Why is it so difficult to pass immigration reform?


Claire Felter and Danielle Renwick, Council on Foreign

Relations Backgrounder, July 2, 2018.

(https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-immigration-debate-0)

Carroll Doherty, ``Americans Broadly Support Legal Status for

Immigrants Brought to the U.S. Illegally as Children,’’ Pew

Research Center, June 18, 2018.

(http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/06/18/americans-

broadly-support-legal-status-for-immigrants-brought-to-the-u-s-

illegally-as-children/)


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March 7

a. Abortion

Has public opinion changed since Roe?


Francis Wilkinson, ``Trump's Values and the Fate of

Abortion Rights,'' Bloomberg Opinion, July 7, 2018.

(https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-07/trump-s-

values-and-the-fate-of-abortion-rights)

Danielle Kurtzleben, ``Despite Constant Debate, Americans'

Abortion Opinions Rarely Change,'' National Public Radio,

September 21, 2015.

(https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/21/44151060

0/despite-constant-debate-americans-abortion-opinions-rarely-

change)

b. Affirmative action

Do white Americans support affirmative action?


Simon Waxman, ``Poll: Yes to Affirmative Action, No to Racial

Preferences,'' Boston Review, August 9, 2013.

(http://bostonreview.net/blog/poll-yes-affirmative-action-no-

racial-preferences)

Hua Hsu, ``The Rise and Fall of Affirmative Action,'' The New

Yorker, October 15, 2018.

(https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/15/the-rise-and-

fall-of-affirmative-action)

March 14

Spring Break


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March 21

a. Health care

Is Obamacare here to stay?


Sarah Jones, ``The 2018 Midterms Are All About Health

Care,'' The New Republic, July 20, 2018.

(https://newrepublic.com/article/150074/2018-midterms-health-

care)

Ashley Kirzinger, Bryan Wu and Mollyann Brodie, ``The

Public's Priorities and the Next Steps for the Affordable Care

Act,'' Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, January 26, 2018.

(https://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-

tracking-poll-january-2018-publics-priorities-next-steps-

affordable-care-act/)

b. Income inequality

Do Americans resent the rich?

Scott Winship, ``How Much Do Americans Care About Income

Inequality?'' Brookings Institution, April 30, 2013.

(https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/how-much-do-americans-care-

about-income-inequality/)

D. Sterrett, J.K. Benz, T.W. Smith, T.W. and T.N. Tompson,

The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research,

``Inequality: Trends and Variations in Americans' Attitudes, AP-

NORC Issue Brief, 2015.

(http://www.apnorc.org/projects/Pages/HTML%20Reports/inequality-

trends-in-americans-attitudes0317-6562.aspx)


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March 28

a. Same-sex marriage

How did public opinion change so quickly?


Sarah McCammon, ``Same-Sex Marriage Support at All-Time High,

Even Among Groups that Opposed It,'' National Public Radio, June

6, 2017.

(https://www.npr.org/2017/06/26/534443494/same-sex-marriage-

support-at-all-time-high-even-among-groups-that-opposed-it)

David von Drehle, ``How Gay Marriage Won,'' Time, March 28,

2013.

(http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/275-42/16693-how-gay-

marriage-won)

b. Sexual harassment

Compare the impact of the Clarence Thomas and Harvey

Weinstein episodes.

Schneider, Standoff, Chapter 7, pp.135-140.

Nikki Graf, ``Sexual Harassment at Work in the Era of

#MeToo,’’ Pew Research Center, April 4, 2018.

(http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/04/04/sexual-harassment-at-

work-in-the-era-of-metoo/)

April 4

a. Tax reform

Why does the issue of tax reform keep coming back?


Eric Levitz, ``After GOP Tax Bill Went Into Effect, It Became

Less Popular,’’ New York, March 7, 2018.

(http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/polls-after-tax-

bill-took-effect-it-became-less-popular.html)

Shawn Tully, ``How Debt Could Blow up the Trump Economy,''

Fortune, March 15, 2018.

(http://fortune.com/2018/03/15/us-national-debt-trump-tax-cuts/)


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b. Infrastructure spending

Why is spending on public works different from spending on

social welfare?

David Wessel, ``Spending on our Crumbling Infrastructure,''

Brookings Institution, March 10, 2015.

(https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/spending-on-our-crumbling-

infrastructure/)

Justin Fox, ``It's Never Infrastructure Week,'' Bloomberg

Opinion, September 6, 2018.

(https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-09-

06/government-spending-hits-a-striking-new-low)

April 11

a. Foreign trade

Are Americans protectionist?

Bradley Jones, ``Americans are Generally Positive About Free

Trade Agreements, More Critical of Tariff Increases,’’ Pew

Research Center, May 10, 2018.

(http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/10/americans-are-

generally-positive-about-free-trade-agreements-more-critical-of-

tariff-increases/)

Dean Baker, ``Why Trump's Tariffs are Nearly as Unpopular

With His Voters as Obama's Trade Policy Was,'' NBC News Think,

July 26, 2018.

(https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/why-trump-s-tariffs-are-

nearly-unpopular-his-voters-obama-ncna89494)


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b. Economy and elections

Does the state of the economy determine election outcomes?

Mike Moffatt, ``How Much Does the Economy Influence

Presidential Election Outcomes?’’ ThoughtCo., March 17, 2017.

(https://www.thoughtco.com/presidential-elections-and-the-

economy-1146241)

Diana Mutz, ``Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains

the 2016 Presidential Vote,’’ Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences, April 23, 2018.

(http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/04/18/1718155115)

Michael J. Boskin, ``Why the Economy's Strength Won't Help

Republicans in November,'' MarketWatch, August 21,2018.

(https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-economys-strength-

wont-help-republicans-in-november-2018-08-21)

April 18

a. The press and politics

Why does President Trump call the press ``the enemy of the

American people’’?

Schneider, Standoff, Chapter 11.

The Media Insight Project, ``Americans and the News Media:

What They Do -- and Don't -- Understand About Each Other,''

American Press Institute, June 11, 2018.

(https://www.americanpressinstitute.org/publications/reports/sur

vey-research/americans-and-the-news-media/)

Michael Barthel and Amy Mitchell, ``Americans’ Attitudes

about the News Media Deeply Divided Along Partisan Lines,’’ Pew

Research Center, May 10, 2017.

(http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-

content/uploads/sites/13/2017/05/09144304/PJ_2017.05.10_Media-

Attitudes_FINAL.pdf)


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b. Presidential impeachment

How did President Bill Clinton survive impeachment?


Francis Wilkinson, ``What If Democrats Have to Impeach the

President?''Bloomberg Opinion, November 25, 2018.

(https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-25/what-if-

democrats-impeach-president-trump)

Joshua Zeitz, ``Looking Back on Clinton’s Impeachment,’’

American Heritage, Vol. 63, Issue 2 (2018).

(https://www.americanheritage.com/node/132745)

April 25

a. Terrorism

Why do terrorists target the U.S.?


Daniel Benjamin, ``17 Years After 9/11, People are Finally

Forgetting About Terrorism,'' Politico Magazine, September 11,

2018.

(https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/11/17-years-

after-9-11-nobody-cares-about-terrorism-anymore-219746)

Andrew McGill, ``Americans Are More Worried About Terrorism

Than They Were After 9/11,'' The Atlantic, September 8, 2016.

(https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/american-

terrorism-fears-september-11/499004/)


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b. Government surveillance

Are Americans willing to accept a trade-off of surveillance

for security?

Abigail Geiger, ``How Americans Have Viewed Government

Surveillance and Privacy Since Snowden Leaks,’’ Pew Research

Center, June 4, 2018.

(http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/06/04/how-americans-

have-viewed-government-surveillance-and-privacy-since-snowden-

leaks/)

Carl M. Cannon, ``The Personal Privacy vs. Public Security

Dilemma,'' RealClearPolitics, July 26, 2018.

(https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/07/26/the_perso

nal_privacy_vs_public_security_dilemma.html)

May 2

a. Russia

Are we in a new Cold War?

Ariel Edwards-Levy, ``Here's What Americans Made of Trump's

Meeting with Putin, According to the Polls,'' HuffPost, July 19,

2018.

(https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/heres-what-americans-made-

of-trumps-meeting-with-putin-according-to-the-

polls_us_5b50bae7e4b0fd5c73c332ed)

Kristen Bialik, ``Key Public Opinion Findings on Trump, Putin

and the Countries They Lead,'' Pew Research Center FactTank,

July 13, 2018.

(http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/07/13/key-public-

opinion-findings-on-trump-putin-and-the-countries-they-lead/)

Jacob Poushter, ``6 Charts on How Russians and Americans See

Each Other,'' Pew Research Center FactTank, October 4, 2018.

(http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/04/6-charts-on-

how-russians-and-americans-see-each-other/)


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b. Military intervention

Where do Americans draw the line?

John Mueller, ``The Iraq Syndrome Revisited,'' Foreign

Affairs, Postscript March 28, 2011.

(https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/2011-03-28/iraq-

syndrome-revisited)

Eric Alterman, ``The Role of Public Opinion in Iraq and

Vietnam,'' American Progress, May 17, 2007.

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2007/05/17

/3039/think-again-the-role-of-public-opinion-in-iraq-and-

vietnam/

John Mueller, ``Iraq Syndrome and Fear of Libya War,'' CNN

Opinion, March 12, 2011.

(http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/03/12/mueller.iraq.syndrome/)

______________________________________________________________

Students with disabilities

If you are a student with a disability and you need academic

accommodations, please contact the Disability Resource Center

(DRC) at 703-993-2474. All academic accommodations must be

arranged through the DRC.


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Policy on Plagiarism

The profession of scholarship and the intellectual life of

a university as well as the field of public policy inquiry

depend fundamentally on a foundation of trust. Thus any act of

plagiarism strikes at the heart of the meaning of the university

and the purpose of the School of Public Policy. It constitutes

a serious breach of professional ethics and it is unacceptable.

Plagiarism is the use of another's words or ideas presented

as one's own. It includes, among other things, the use of

specific words, ideas, or frameworks that are the product of

another's work. Honesty and thoroughness in citing sources is

essential to professional accountability and personal

responsibility. Appropriate citation is necessary so that

arguments, evidence, and claims can be critically examined.

Plagiarism is wrong because of the injustice it does to the

person whose ideas are stolen. But it is also wrong because it

constitutes lying to one's professional colleagues. From a

prudential perspective, it is shortsighted and self-defeating,

and it can ruin a professional career.

The faculty of the Schar School takes plagiarism seriously

and has adopted a zero tolerance policy. Any plagiarized

assignment will receive an automatic grade of "F." This may

lead to failure for the course, resulting in dismissal from the

University. This dismissal will be noted on the student's

transcript. For foreign students who are on a university-

sponsored visa (eg. F-1, J-1 or J-2), dismissal also results in

the revocation of their visa.

To help enforce the Schar School policy on plagiarism, all

written work submitted in partial fulfillment of course or

degree requirements must be available in electronic form so that

it can be compared with electronic databases, as well as

submitted to commercial services to which the School subscribes.

Faculty may at any time submit student's work without prior

permission from the student. Individual instructors may require

that written work be submitted in electronic as well as printed

form. The SPP policy on plagiarism is supplementary to the

George Mason University Honor Code; it is not intended to

replace it or substitute for it.

<http://www.gmu.edu/facstaff/handbook/aD.html>


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