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GEOS-CF: Global Composition Forecasting with

NASA GMAO’s GEOS System – a Focus on Africa

Steven Pawson, Christoph Keller, Emma Knowland

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Bryan Duncan

Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Daniel Jacob

Harvard University

WMO-GAW-SAWS International Workshop Seamless Prediction of Air Pollution for Africa: from Regional to UrbanPretoria, South Africa – December 4-6, 2017

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Themes of GMAO’s Research and Products

Weather Analysis and

Prediction

Seasonal-to-Decadal

Analysis and Prediction

Global Mesoscale

Modeling

Reanalysis

Observing System

Science

• These (non-orthogonal) themes span GMAO’s main focus areas

• Strong emphasis on NASA’s Earth Observations (use, support, planning)

• GEOS is a modular system, encompassing many Earth System components

• Aerosols are established in production systems; reactive chemistry is an emerging focus

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The “GEOS-CF” (composition forecasting) system combines:

• The GEOS model/assimilation system (meteorology, transport, …)

• Aerosols from NASA’s GOCART module

• Dynamic emissions modules (flow-dependent; observation constrained)

• The GEOS-Chem chemical mechanism

• Many (NASA) observations of physical and chemical parameters

It is being run in near-real time as a research project; target date for a routine production system is April 2018

Unrestricted data access is planned (NASA policy) via Servers

Currently, O3 is the only reactive chemical species being assimilated; development is underway to assimilate NOx, CO, and other gases

Overview of NASA’s GEOS-CF System

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Various NASA observations used in GMAO’s constituent work

Distributions of fires (Biomass Burning Emissions)

Land-surface vegetation and ocean color (Emissions, dry deposition, …)

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Surface Ozone from GEOS model with GEOS-Chem

Results can be validated at surface stations in North America and Europe

The “analyses” and five-day forecasts are shown in red; surface observations are black

Note the diurnal ozone variations and the synoptic changes as weather systems move through

Providence, RI: Obs (black); forecast (red)

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Surface NO2 from GEOS model with GEOS-Chem

Results can be validated at surface stations in North America and Europe

The “analyses” and five-day forecasts are shown in red-yellow (near-far); surface observations are black

Note the diurnal variations and the synoptic changes as weather systems move through (as well as weekends in emissions) Zurich, CH: Obs (black); forecast (red-yellow)

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Some Examples Over Africa: Isoprene and Ozone

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Some Examples Over Africa: NO2, O3 and PM2.5

Lago

sP

reto

ria

NO2 O3 PM2.5

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Some Examples Over Africa: HAQI (PM2.5, O3, NO2, CO)

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GEOS-CF, with global ~25-km resolution, is being run each day

GEOS-CF Composition forecasts:

• Show skill at five days over North America and Europe (weather)

• Benefit from our knowledge of emissions in those regions

• Agree that African air quality is dominated by regional/seasonal features

• Dust and smoke emissions are major factors

• Ozone and other gases have regional importance – which is uncertain

Validation over data-sparse regions such as Africa is problematic:

• Existence/availability of in-situ observing capabilities

• Availability of realistic (anthropogenic) emissions databases

GEOS-CF data will soon be freely distributed via openly accessible servers

Summary

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Who funds this activity within this project?

NASA. Funding for core NASA/GMAO activities covers global Earth System analysis and modeling/assimilation work to benefit NASA observations; GEOS-Chem implementation via competed funding (Jacob-Pawson).

Who would be stakeholders and users of data and information?

The global community. GMAO can provide global fields (analyses, 5-day forecasts, emissions), currently at 25km resolution; looking at enhanced complexity (resolution; ensembles; ...).

Are there specific protocols to follow when using the data?

Data will be freely available (target date: April 2018), through NASA data distribution policies. Follow normal scientific protocol: citation; co-authorship when appropriate; careful acknowledgement of the GMAO.

Answers to THE Questions

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Thank you for including us in this workshop

Contact Details:

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Steven.Pawson@nasa.gov

Christoph.A.Keller@nasa.gov

The End