GEOSHARE:Thoughts on Institutional Design

David I Gustafson, Ph.D.

Director, CIMSANS

dgustafson@ilsi.org

+1-314-409-7123ILSI Research Foundation

10 September 2014

Outline

• What is CIMSANS?• What are the key beneficial uses of GEOSHARE?• What institutional design will maximize those benefits?

2

Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems Have Become Front Page News

3

Increases in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events

• Floods• Drought• Heat waves• Wind-storms• Severe t-storms• Tropical cyclones

Super Storm Sandy (US East Coast 2012)

Govindghat, India (2013)

Pakistan (2010) Texas (2011)

4

Tacloban, Philippines (2013)

Third US National Climate Assessment: Innovation in Agriculture is Essential

Impact of immediate mitigation

Current trajectory

5

Global Average Temperatures

EmissionsScenarios

Annual Rates of Yield Increases for Food Crops Vary with Technology Investment

6

Global rates of yield gain (1961-2011), based on data available from FAOSTAT

Rate Needed to Double Yields by 2050

PotatoesSorghum

Sugar caneCassava

MilletPulses

Sweet PotatoesWheat

RiceSoybeans

Maize

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Annual Rate of Yield Gain (%)

Impact of Reducing Food Wastage by 30%

6

The Central Problem

• ILSI Research Foundation will foster scientific collaboration, new research, and data mining by leveraging a broader array of “tri-partite” scientists, resources, and partnerships

7

How can we manage food systems to improve global nutrition security in a more informed,

collaborative, and sustainable manner?

CIMSANS Participants (“tri-partite”)

Private Sector

Academia

Governments, etc.

8

• CIMSANS Advisory Council named, first met in October 2013• Mark Rosegrant (IFPRI) – Chair; Swapan Datta (ICAR); Mark Howden

(CSIRO); James Jones (U Florida); Josette Lewis (UC Davis); Marilia Nutti (EMPRAPA); Anne Roulin (Nestlé)

• Publications (three) appeared in peer-reviewed literature• Successful meetings hosted and more are in planning

• Rome/FAO (Oct-2012); Dublin (Apr-2013); Tällberg (June-2013); Korea (Sept-2013); India (Nov-2013); DC (July-2014); Purdue (Sept-2014)

• Three Working Groups launched• Open Data WG –GEOSHARE pilot, Open Data Processing Service• Improved Modeling WG – Model Improvement Workshops• Nutrition Security WG – White Paper released in May 2014

• “Sustainable Nutrition Security” (SNS) Assessment

CIMSANS: Current Status

9

10

SNS Assessment

• White Paper “Assessing Sustainable Nutrition Security: the Role of Food Systems”– Full version released on the CIMSANS web-site (May 2014)– An abridged version has been submitted to a peer-reviewed

scientific journal (Global Food Security)

• Implementation of 3-year assessment work-plan– Announced (on July 29) a new partnership with AgMIP, IFPRI

and others to conduct a first-of-its-kind “Sustainable Nutrition Security” (SNS) assessment

– Seven novel SNS metrics– Includes all important staple and non-staple foods– Working with USGCRP to have this become a Special Report

within the US NCA sustained assessment process

Potential Uses of GEOSHARE

• Become a preferred Open Data Portal for endorsed, high-quality geospatial datasets– House datasets for model and module improvement– Support development of integrated assessments

• Become a preferred Workflow Environment for integrated modeling and assessments– Collaborative prototyping of novel modeling approaches– Delivery of “interactive assessments” to stakeholders

11

Maximizing the Benefits of GEOSHARE Through Intentional Institutional Design

• Credibility and impact of assessments based on GEOSHARE-sourced data will be maximized via broad stakeholder engagement & endorsement

• Consider expanding the Advisory Board to include additional kinds of organizations– e-NGO’s (e.g. WWF)– Regional organizations (e.g. ASARECA)– Decision-makers– Others?

12