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Geothermal energy for sustainable development: recent advances in
exploration and exploitation of resources
Michele Pipan, University of Trieste Exploration Geophysics Group
Sustainable Energy: Challenges and Opportunities International Conference on Science, Arts and Culture
Veli Lošinj, Croatia, 23-27 August 2010 1
Acknowledgment
ECSAC 2010 - Veli Lošinj, Croatia, 23-27 August 2010 2
This presentation gives an update of current situation and perspectives of geothermal energy, as well as
state-of-the-art and new developments in the field of geothermal science and technology.
Statistical data and part of the images are based on the
following sources:
• IGA (International Geothermal Association) working group for the 2008 IPCC geothermal panel;
• IEA (International Energy Agency); • GRC (Geothermal Resources Council); • EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration); • EERE (U.S. Energy Dept., Energy Efficiency &
Renewable Energy); • GEA (Geothermal Energy Association) • GEO (Geothermal Education Office)
Rationale
INNOVATIVE TECHNIQUES CAN OPEN NEW
FRONTIERS FOR THE UTILIZATION OF GREATER
FRACTIONS OF THE IMMENSE AND LARGELY
UNTAPPED THERMAL ENERGY OF THE EARTH
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Summary
• GEOTHERMAL ENERGY: o What is? o Where can be found? o Current status of exploration/exploitation
• WORLD STATUS AND GLOBAL GROWTH SCENARIOS • PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES:
o Exploration: advanced geophysical imaging and reservoir characterization/monitoring
o Drilling o EGS o Supercritical fluid o Others
• CONCLUSIONS
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MAIN HEAT SOURCE: Decay of long-lived radioactive isotopes of uranium (U238, U235), thorium (Th232) and potassium (K40) HEAT BALANCE:
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Geothermal energy
Source % total volume
Heat flow (W)
Crust 2 8x1012
Mantle 82 32.3x1012
Core 16 1.7x1012
Total 42x1012
TOTAL HEAT CONTENT OF THE EARTH (reckoned above an average surface temperature of 15 °C):
≈ 12.6 x 1024 MJ HEAT CONTENT OF THE CRUST:
≈ 5.4 x 1021 MJ
BUT…
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Geothermal energy
… ONLY A FRACTION CAN BE UTILIZED TO DATE, DEPENDING ON FAVOURABLE GEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS…
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Geothermal energy
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Geothermal energy
…I.E. CARRIER AVAILABLE TO TRANSFER HEAT FROM DEEP HOT ZONES TO THE SURFACE
INNOVATIVE TECHNIQUES MAY OPEN NEW FRONTIERS IN THE NEAR FUTURE…
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Geothermal energy
… AND ALLOW UTILIZATION OF LARGER FRACTIONS OF THE UNTAPPED RESOURCES
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Geothermal energy
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Geothermal energy
The heat in place is not the question. The question is: how much can be taken out and at what price.
Nobody knows the answer, although the resource is immense.
SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF A GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM
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Geothermal energy
MODEL OF THE GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM
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Geothermal energy
CLASSIFICATION OF GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES
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Geothermal energy
RESOURCES TEMPERATURE (°C)
1978 2000
Low enthalpy < 90 <125 <100 ≤150 ≤190
Intermediate enthalpy 90-150 125-225
100-200
- -
High enthalpy >150 >225 >200 >150 >190
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY USES
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Geothermal energy
• Electric power generation
• Direct use
• Heat pumps
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Flash steam power plants tap into reservoirs of water with
temperatures greater than 182ºC. As it flows, the fluid pressure
decreases and some of the hot water boils or "flashes" into steam. The steam is then separated at the
surface and is used to power a turbine/generator unit
Flash steam power plants
Dry steam plants use hydrothermal fluids that are primarily steam. The steam goes
directly to a turbine, which drives a generator that produces electricity.
Dry steam power plants
Binary cycle power plants operate on water at lower
temperatures of about 107-182ºC. These plants use the heat from the geothermal water to boil a working fluid, usually an organic compound
with a low boiling point.
Binary cycle power plants
Global Installed capacity 2007
Units
Capacity (GW)
58
2.6
237
0.8
Highly cost competitive but geographically limited
Most dominant in terms of global capacity
Useful alongside geothermal heating, hot springs, etc
195
5.6
Average size (MW)
~45 ~29 ~3
ELECTRIC POWER: conventional technologies
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ELECTRIC POWER: current perspective and future outlook
– Capex of conventional technologies are expected to decrease in the long term, driven by a significant reduction in drilling costs resulting from adoption of new technologies. Evolution of margin of drilling players is unclear in the long term because very dependent on oil industry dynamics
– Outlook of future demand appears moderately positive, driven by increasing development focus of high potential countries; significant untapped potential; stable development of low-enthalpy binary technology
– Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), still in an early stage of development, might represent a breakthrough technology in the long term (not before the next 10 years, if issues of seismic implications and replicability are addressed) given that it is not subject to the same geographic constraints of conventional technologies (i.e., could be technically developed everywhere)
Future outlook
2
Current perspective
1
– Three “conventional” geothermal technologies, according to a site’s geological attributes: dry steam (~3 GW of installed capacity), flash steam (~6 GW of installed capacity), binary cycle (~1 GW of installed capacity)
– Economics of conventional geothermal technologies, although very site specific, are typically attractive vs. other renewables
– Growth of installed capacity has been slow (3% p.a.), constrained by long lead time, geographic concentration of natural potential, and specific development competences required
– Industry profile is mainly local (only few players at “regional” level) and highly fragmented. While different business models will coexist, first indications of a possible industry paradigm shift towards vertical integration and global presence are emerging
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
An increase of about 800 MW in the three year term 2005-2007 has been
achieved, following the rough standard linear trend of
approximately 200/250 MW per year
The geothermal electricity installed capacity is approaching
the 10,000 MW threshold, which can be reached by end
2010
Installed Capacity Wordlwide
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Ca
pa
cit
y G
W
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
9,69,3
8,98,68,48,17,9
6,8
5,8
3,9
0,8
1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
+3%
Installed capacity in GWe
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
Comparison with other RES: Wind power, existing World Capacity, 1996-2008
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
Comparison with other RES: Solar PV, existing World Capacity, 1995-2008
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
Comparison with other RES: Solar PV and Geothermal Power growth, 1995-2008
Installed Capacity Wordlwide
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Ca
pa
cit
y G
W
Geothermal
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
Electricity production from RES in 2008*
*) Source: installed capacity from the REN21 report,
capacity factors from Fridleifsson et al. (2008)
Fridleifsson, I.B., R. Bertani, E. Huenges, J. W. Lund, A. Ragnarsson, and L. Rybach (2008): The possible role and contribution of geothermal energy to the mitigation of climate change. In: O. Hohmeyer and T. Trittin (Eds.) IPCC Scoping Meeting on Renewable Energy Sources, Proceedings, Luebeck, Germany, 20-25 January 2008, 59-80.
Renewables – Global Status Report 2009. REN21 (Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century)
Technology Installed capacity by mid 2008 (Gwe)
Capacity factor (%) Electricity produced (TWh)
Wind 121 21 222.6
Solar PV 13 14 15.9
Geothermal 10 75 65.7
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
WORLD FORECASTING
Difficult to estimate the overall world-wide potential,
due to too many uncertainties. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify a
range of estimations, taking into account new technologies:
• permeability enhancements • drilling improvements • enhanced geothermal system • low temperature production • supercritical fluid
Standard: 70 GW Improved: 140 GW
It is possible to produce up
8.3% of total world electricity production, serving 17% of world population.
39 countries (located mostly in
Africa, Central/South America, Pacific) can be 100% geothermal powered.
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
Energy and Investment costs for electricity production from RES *
*) Source: World Energy Assessment Report, UNDP/UN-DESA/World Energy Council, 2000
Technology Current energy cost (USc/kWh)
Potential future energy cost (USc/kWh)
Turnkey investment cost (USD/kW)
Biomass 5-15 4-10 900-3000
Geothermal 2-10 1-8 800-3000
Wind 5-13 3-10 1100-1700
Solar PV 25-125 5-25 5000-10000
Solar CSP 12-18 4-10 3000-4000
Tidal 8-15 8-15 1700-2500
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WORLD STATUS AND GROWTH SCENARIO
GLOBAL GROWTH SCENARIO
Projection of geothermal power development (left); projection of direct use heat production (right) to 2050. From Fridleifsson et al. (2008).
How to achieve this growth? >> EGS chances and challenges <<
0
40
80
120
160
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
pa
cit
y (
GW
)
0
400
800
1200
1600
Ele
ctr
icit
y p
ro
du
cti
on
(T
Wh
/yr)
GW TWh/yr
0
1'000'000
2'000'000
3'000'000
4'000'000
5'000'000
6'000'000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
TJ
/yr
Total
Geothermal Heat Pumps (GHP)
Direct Use other than GHP
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS): Basic scheme for heat/power co-generation
The key component:
an extended, sufficiently
permeable fracture
network at several km
depth, with suitable heat
exchange surfaces.
~200°C
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
The EGS principle is simple: in the deep subsurface
where temperatures are high enough for power
generation (150-200 °C) an extended fracture network is
created and/or enlarged to act as new fluid pathways.
Water from the surface is circulated through this deep
heat exchanger using injection and production wells, and
recovered as steam/hot water.
Further surface installations complete the circulation
system. The extracted heat can be used for district
heating and/or for power generation.
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Soultz-sous-Forêts – Rhein graben EGS project – “Heat Mining”
1.5 + 4.5 MWe
geophone geophone
production 50 kg/s
production 50 kg/s
600 m 200oC depth 5000 m 600 m
GPK2 GPK3 GPK4
Observation well Observation well
Injection 100 kg/s
1400 m
European Economic Interest Group 4 countries including ENEL Commercial electricity production •Inject cold water at 5 km •Obtain 200°C water/steam •Produce 6 MWe by 2007
Suitable European sites potential = 110 000 MWe
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
EGS is the future!
M.I.T. study (2006) 358 p.
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
The M.I.T. study “The Future of Geothermal Energy” (2006) determined recoverable resources > 200,000 EJ alone for the USA, corresponding to 2,000 times the annual primary energy demand. To universally utilize these immense resources exciting R&D problems need to be tackled:
High-Resolution 3-D/4-D imaging, characterization and monitoring of geothermal reservoir and subsurface conditions
Development of a technology to produce electricity and/or heat from a basically ubiquitous resource, independent of site conditions (“EGS technology”).
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
…R&D CHALLENGES IN EGS DEVELOPMENT (cont.):
Acquiring experience about possible changes of an EGS heat exchanger with time
To see whether and how the EGS power plant capacity could be upscaled from the currently few MWe to several 10 – 100 MWe
ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY VS. GEOLOGIC ASSURANCE
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
EUR million, based on a 20 MW plant
Capital cost per MW ranging between 4 and 6 million EUR
30
1-2
Site scouting and geophysical
exploration
20-30
Exploratory drilling
Drilling
50-60
Field development
30-60
Power plant construction
80-120
Total expenses
– Upfront costs for exploration
– Exposure to risk of failure (i.e., site not sufficiently attractive for development)
CAPEX IMPLICATIONS
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ECONOMIC/POLICY WARNING
“…To a great extent, energy markets and government policies will influence the private sector’s interest in developing EGS technology. In today’s economic climate, there is reluctance for private industry to invest its funds without strong guarantees. Thus, initially, it is likely that government will have to fully support EGS fieldwork and supporting R&D. Later, as field sites are established and proven, the private sector will assume a greater role in cofunding projects – especially with government incentives accelerating the transition to independently financed EGS projects in the private sector. Our analysis indicates that, after a few EGS plants at several sites are built and operating, the technology will improve to a point where development costs and risks would diminish significantly, allowing the levelized cost of producing EGS electricity in the United States to be at or below market prices…” (From M.I.T. report, “The Future of Geothermal Energy”, 2006)
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
The Regional scale
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
The Regional scale
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
The Regional 2-D cross-section and subsurface model
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
The Regional 2-D cross-section and …
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
…The Regional subsurface model
46
The role of innovative geophysical techniques
The Site Scale: 3-D High-Resolution imaging and characterization
ECSAC 2010 - Veli Lošinj, Croatia, 23-27 August 2010
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
ECSAC 2010 - Veli Lošinj, Croatia, 23-27 August 2010
The Site Scale: 3-D High-Resolution imaging and characterization
Fractures
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
The Reservoir scale…
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
The Petrophysical characterization
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
REMARKS
ECSAC 2010 - Veli Lošinj, Croatia, 23-27 August 2010
• 3-D seismic imaging is a powerful tool to:
o unravel complex structural features
o identify faults and fractures with adequate precision for exploratory/production drilling purposes
o obtain detailed 3-D structural models of use in the identification and assessment of geothermal resources
NONETHELESS…
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
REMARKS
ECSAC 2010 - Veli Lošinj, Croatia, 23-27 August 2010
• Seismic data are sensitive to acoustic impedance contrasts • Different types of fluids and/or variations of temperature may
have little effect on acoustic impedance • Even seismic AVO response and instantaneous seismic
attributes do not allow convincing discrimination between fluid/lithology variations
THEREFORE…
52
The role of innovative geophysical techniques
REMARKS
ECSAC 2010 - Veli Lošinj, Croatia, 23-27 August 2010
The road ahead in geothermal exploration: Joint Seismic/EM imaging and inversion Example of fluid saturation imaging from joint EM and SEISMICS
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The role of innovative geophysical techniques
IMAGING AND CHARACTERIZATION OF DEEP GEOTHERMAL RESERVOIRS
Combined results of resistivity soundings (TEM/MT ) and micro-seismicity analysis at the Krafla geothermal field (Iceland)
Pre-drilling exploration
results:
Resistivity shows a conductive body at average 4-5 km depth but with pinnacles up to 2km.
• Micro-earthquakes show that seismicity occurs above the conductive body indicating T higher than 700°C
Drilling results:
• A borehole pointing towards a pinnacle hit acidic magma at 2,1 km
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
…BACK TO THE EGS CHALLENGE>> LONG-TERM BEHAVIOUR?
There is no experience about possible changes of an EGS heat exchanger with time.
Permeability enhancement (e.g. new fractures generated by cooling cracks, mineral dissolution) could increase the recovery factor,
while permeability reduction (e.g. by mineral deposition) or short-circuiting could reduce recovery. Without having field-scale experience with long-term EGS production the economic estimates about production, and maintenance costs remain unsubstantiated.
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
OTHER RD SECTORS: DRILLING Comparison of drilling costs (indexed) to crude oil and natural gas prices
–Historically, significant correlation between drilling cost and crude oil prices
–Current scenario of low crude oil prices, offers attractive opportunities to:
•Scale up drilling plans
•Investigate partnerships with drilling players at attractive conditions
– Higher crude oil prices resulted in increased oil and gas exploration and drilling activity, leading to shortage of drilling rig
– By simple supply-demand dynamics, shortage led to an increase in costs of rig rental and drilling equipments
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
OTHER RD SECTORS: DRILLING Current oil/gas drilling technologies
adaptable to geothermal Revolutionary new drilling techniques
– Expandable tubular casings: Shell technology which allows for in situ plastic deformation of tubular casing
– Under-reamers: provides cementing clearance for casing strings
– Low clearance casing design: accepts lower clearance to use expandable tubulars (under-reamer may be required)
– Drilling with casing: permits longer casing intervals and thus results in fewer strings
– Multilateral completions/stimulating through sidetracks and laterals: sequentially stimulation of geothermal reservoirs
– Well-design variations: extended length of casing intervals will reduce number of casing strings
– Projectile drilling: projecting steel balls at high velocity using pressurized water to fracture and remove the rock
– Spallation drilling: uses high-temperature flames to rapidly heat rock surface and causing it to fracture
– Laser drilling: uses laser pulses to rapidly heat rock surface and causing it to fracture
– Chemical drilling: involves use of strong acids to break down the rock; may be used in conjunction with conventional drilling techniques
– Impact of adaptation of current drilling technologies may be less significant than lower drilling cost driven by oil sector dynamics
– Effect of revolutionary drilling could instead by significant
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
OTHER RD SECTORS: SUPERCRITICAL FLUIDS
3,5 km Minimum Casing depth
4 - 5 km Target depth
Its aim is to produce electricity
from natural supercritical fluids from
drillable depths.
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
OTHER RD SECTORS: SUPERCRITICAL FLUIDS The current plan is to drill and test at least three 3.5-5 km deep boreholes in
Iceland within the next few years (one in each of the Krafla, Hengill, and Reykjanes high-temperature geothermal systems). Beneath these three developed drill fields temperatures should exceed 550-650°C, and the occurrence of frequent seismic activity below 5 km, indicates that the rocks are brittle and therefore likely to be
permeable. Modelling indicates that if the wellhead enthalpy is to exceed that of conventionally produced geothermal steam, the reservoir temperature must be
higher than 450°C.
A deep well producing 2500 m3/h of steam from a reservoir with a temperature significantly above 450°C could yield enough high-enthalpy steam to generate
40-50 MW of electric power. This exceeds by an order of magnitude the power typically obtained from
conventional geothermal wells. This would mean that much more energy could be obtained from presently exploited high-temperature geothermal fields from a
smaller number of wells.
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PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
• Resource Identification (science): new geological and geophysical methods will lead to cost and risk reduction
• Power conversion technology (technology): improving heat-transfer
performance for low temperature fluid, developing plant design with high efficiency and low parasitic losses. It will increase the available
resource basis to the huge low-temperature regions, not bounded to the plate boundary (binary plants technology)
• Reservoir (science & technology): increasing production flow rate by
targeting specific zones for stimulation and improving downhole lift systems for higher temperature, improving heat-removal efficiency in
fractured rock system. It will lead to an immediate cost reduction increasing the output per well and extending reservoir operating life.
• IN THE FUTURE >> EGS!!!
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CONCLUSIONS
Geothermal is well positioned within the Renewables Wind and solar PV power growth leaves geothermal behind Substantial geothermal growth could be provided by EGS Still many problems need to be solved in EGS There is a great need for R & D
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CONCLUSIONS (2)
• Advanced exploration methods are crucial to reduce risks of failure in geothermal drilling and relevant costs in the exploratory phase
• Exploration strategies must be tailored for each geothermal field
• The most promising methods include combined use of resistivity and active/passive seismic methods
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CONCLUSIONS (3)
• Advanced geophysical methods can further support and help optimizing the development/production phase through high-resolution characterization and monitoring of the geothermal system
• A large and targeted research effort is needed to improve the geothermal exploration methods
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CONCLUSIONS (4)
•Total geothermal electricity is reaching the value of 9,7 GW in 24 countries, with 800 MW of increase since 2005; the forecasting for 2010 is about 11 GW •Geothermal energy is not widely diffuse, but its base-load capability and its high availability are key elements for its penetration into the energy market •Binary plant technology is playing a very important role in the modern geothermal electricity market •The possibility of production from Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) (to be considered as a possible future developments) can expand its availability on a worldwide basis
The maximum reduction of CO2 will be 1000-500 million of tons for electricity
and 200 million tons for direct utilizations
Many thanks for your attention !
Prof. Michele Pipan
University of Trieste
Department of Geosciences
34127 Trieste - Italy
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