germany’s largest dairy company · outlook supply-milk production* eu 28 in 2016 dairy market...
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06.05.16 PräsentationsthemaPage 1
Germany’s largest dairy company
• 26 locations in 10 German states
• Approx. 7,400 employees
• Over 8,900 dairy farmers
• Company headquarter:Bremen
May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 0
Broad product range for highest demands
May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 1
06.05.16 PräsentationsthemaPage 2
Supply: Milk Production Germany 2016
• 2016: Jan – Mar + 3,9% (+ 296 Mio. kg)• In March the milk supply increased about + 3,2%, but very little weekly growthà in Nov 14 – Feb 15 farmers slowed down, now the percentage increase is significantly higher.
Source: BLE, weekly reports
May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 2
Supply: Milk Production EU 2016, var. countries,based on 30,5 days/months
May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 3
Source: national statistics, Eurostat
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2,4
Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
France201620152014
bn kg
01 - 03/2016: -0,9%03/15 vs 03/16: -2,1%
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
Ireland201620152014
bn kg
01 - 03/2016: +29,4%03/15 vs 03/16: +27,0%
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
bn kg Netherlands 201620152014
01 - 03/2016: +16,6%03/15 vs 03/16: +16,8%
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
Poland 201620152014
bn kg
01 - 03/2016: +8,6%03/15 vs 03/16: +9,2%
06.05.16 PräsentationsthemaPage 3
10,5
11,0
11,5
12,0
12,5
13,0
13,5
14,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
bn. kg2016201520142013
Outlook supply- Milk production* EU 28 in 2016
May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence
Reduced margins will limit the growth in the EU in the second half of 2016. Milk supply will be limited or even slow down.
Sources: national statistics, Eurostat, own estimates
* milk production corrected to 30,5 days/month
H1 ’16 + 2,2 bn. kgH2 ’16 - 0,2 bn. kg2016 + 2,0 bn. kg
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-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
-1.200
-1.000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Okt 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Okt 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Okt 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Okt 15 Jan 16
Total volume change(1.000 t)
Change milk supply(1.000 t)
Milk Supply World
AUS ARG NZ USA EU Total Δ last 12 months
Supply: Milk Production World 2016
• The total change in milk supply of the last 12 months decreased continuously since October, but came to an end now. EU is driving the milk supply curve.
• USA has only little growth, in New Zealand the production is not as low as expected.
* milk production corrected to 30,5 days/month, Source: national statistics (EU, USA, New Zealand, Australia, Argentinia)
May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 5
06.05.16 PräsentationsthemaPage 4
Milk Price EU March 2016
• The average pay-out prices are still significantly above the average valorisation of Butter/SMP.
May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 6
Milk Price DMK, 4,0% fat / 3,4% protein
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
Jan DecOctSepAugMayAprMar JulJunFeb Nov
in Cent
2014
Source DMK
2015
2016
May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 7