germany’s largest dairy company · outlook supply-milk production* eu 28 in 2016 dairy market...

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06.05.16 Präsentationsthema Page 1 Germany’s largest dairy company 26 locations in 10 German states Approx. 7,400 employees Over 8,900 dairy farmers Company headquarter: Bremen May 2016 Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 0 Broad product range for highest demands May 2016 Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 1

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Page 1: Germany’s largest dairy company · Outlook supply-Milk production* EU 28 in 2016 Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence May 2016 Reduced margins will limit the growth in the

06.05.16 PräsentationsthemaPage 1

Germany’s largest dairy company

• 26 locations in 10 German states

• Approx. 7,400 employees

• Over 8,900 dairy farmers

• Company headquarter:Bremen

May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 0

Broad product range for highest demands

May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 1

Page 2: Germany’s largest dairy company · Outlook supply-Milk production* EU 28 in 2016 Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence May 2016 Reduced margins will limit the growth in the

06.05.16 PräsentationsthemaPage 2

Supply: Milk Production Germany 2016

• 2016: Jan – Mar + 3,9% (+ 296 Mio. kg)• In March the milk supply increased about + 3,2%, but very little weekly growthà in Nov 14 – Feb 15 farmers slowed down, now the percentage increase is significantly higher.

Source: BLE, weekly reports

May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 2

Supply: Milk Production EU 2016, var. countries,based on 30,5 days/months

May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 3

Source: national statistics, Eurostat

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

2,4

Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

France201620152014

bn kg

01 - 03/2016: -0,9%03/15 vs 03/16: -2,1%

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

Ireland201620152014

bn kg

01 - 03/2016: +29,4%03/15 vs 03/16: +27,0%

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

bn kg Netherlands 201620152014

01 - 03/2016: +16,6%03/15 vs 03/16: +16,8%

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

Poland 201620152014

bn kg

01 - 03/2016: +8,6%03/15 vs 03/16: +9,2%

Page 3: Germany’s largest dairy company · Outlook supply-Milk production* EU 28 in 2016 Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence May 2016 Reduced margins will limit the growth in the

06.05.16 PräsentationsthemaPage 3

10,5

11,0

11,5

12,0

12,5

13,0

13,5

14,0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

bn. kg2016201520142013

Outlook supply- Milk production* EU 28 in 2016

May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence

Reduced margins will limit the growth in the EU in the second half of 2016. Milk supply will be limited or even slow down.

Sources: national statistics, Eurostat, own estimates

* milk production corrected to 30,5 days/month

H1 ’16 + 2,2 bn. kgH2 ’16 - 0,2 bn. kg2016 + 2,0 bn. kg

Page 4

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

-1.200

-1.000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Okt 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Okt 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Okt 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Okt 15 Jan 16

Total volume change(1.000 t)

Change milk supply(1.000 t)

Milk Supply World

AUS ARG NZ USA EU Total Δ last 12 months

Supply: Milk Production World 2016

• The total change in milk supply of the last 12 months decreased continuously since October, but came to an end now. EU is driving the milk supply curve.

• USA has only little growth, in New Zealand the production is not as low as expected.

* milk production corrected to 30,5 days/month, Source: national statistics (EU, USA, New Zealand, Australia, Argentinia)

May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 5

Page 4: Germany’s largest dairy company · Outlook supply-Milk production* EU 28 in 2016 Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence May 2016 Reduced margins will limit the growth in the

06.05.16 PräsentationsthemaPage 4

Milk Price EU March 2016

• The average pay-out prices are still significantly above the average valorisation of Butter/SMP.

May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 6

Milk Price DMK, 4,0% fat / 3,4% protein

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Jan DecOctSepAugMayAprMar JulJunFeb Nov

in Cent

2014

Source DMK

2015

2016

May 2016Dairy Market Report DMK, Market Intelligence Page 7