germany's renewable energy sector in the context of energy transition

Germany's renewable energy sector in the

context of energy transition

Marc UhligDeutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena)German Energy AgencyBogotá, 02.07.2015

15. Apr 2023 2

Agenda

About the German Energy Agency (dena) Basics Energiewende Renewable Energies in Germany Power Plants and Security of Supply The Power Grid Electricity/Energy Costs and Prices Q&A

15. Apr 2023 Speaker 3

About the German Energy Agency (dena)

Ownership structure of dena

15. Apr 2023 4

dena’s focus topics and key areas

15. Apr 2023 5

15. Apr 2023 Referent 6

Basics EnergiewendeTransformation of the German energy system

Marc Uhlig

Milestones of the Energiewende

15. Apr 2023 7

Germany is part of an integrated European energy and climate strategy.

’14

Amendment of theRenewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)

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Three target areas of the Energiewende

Affordability, security of supply and environmental protection are interlinked.

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15. Apr 2023 Marc Uhlig 9

1. Phase-out nuclear power generation

2. Reduce dependency on energy imports

3. Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets

4. Development of new technologies as new sources of growth and employment

5. Show that energy policy can be both sustainable and economically successful

Five reasons for the Energiewende

Marc Uhlig

StakeholderDialogue

Central steering of the Energiewende

15. Apr 2023 10

In charge of the Energiewende

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy

Federal and state coordination

• Chancellor• Prime ministers of the Länder

Monitoring report “Energy of the Future”

Energy GridsPlatform

Energy Efficiency Platform

Research and Innovation Platform

Electricity Market Platform

Buildings Platform

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Two pillars of the Energiewende

The energy transition’s foundation are renewables and reduced energy consumption.

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Renewable Energy

Key legislation:

Renewable Energy Sources Act Renewable Energy Heat Act

• Steady growth• Environmentally friendly

Market and system integration

Energy research and development

Supporting fields of action

European energy and climate policy

Key legislation:

Energy Saving OrdinanceHeating Cost Ordinance

• Reduce energy consumption

• Cost-efficient

Energy Efficiency

2050 Energiewende targets

Renewables are on track. Additional measures will bring climate and energy efficiency on track.

15. Apr 2023 12

* 20

13

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Marc Uhlig

Climate

Renewable Energies

Energy Efficiency

% final energy consumption

% gross electricity consumption

% primary energy consumption (vs. 2008)

energy productivity

building renovation

% greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990)

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

+2.1% p.a.

doubling of renovation rate: 1% 2%

-40-55

-70-80 to -95

35 40 to 4550 65

8055 to 60

1830

4560

-20

-50

12%*

27.3%

- 8.9%

1.2%* p.a.

~1%* p.a.

-22.6%*

Achieved 2014

German nuclear phase-out timeline

Nuclear phase-out will reduce total power capacity by 22.1 GW by 2022.

15. Apr 2023 13

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Dec 2017

Dec 2019

Dec 2021

Dec 2022

FukushimaGW

43%

57%

Nov

20

03

May

20

05

Aug

20

11

May

20

15

15. Apr 2023 Speaker 14

Renewable Energies in Germany

15. Apr 2023 15

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Hydropower Wind power (Onshore) Wind power (Offshore - installed but not complete grid-connected) Photovoltaics Biomass

MW

el

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014

)

Previous successes: Historical development of renewable energies in Germany

Since 1990, the installed power capacity from renewable energies has increased many times over.

5,595 MW

38,236 MW

38,116 MW

8,791 MW

2,340 MW

German gross electricity production

Renewables have become the biggest electricity source in just ten years.

15. Apr 2023 16

10.3% gas

lignite 26%

nuclear 27.1%

24.1% hard coal

5% others3.1% wind 1.1% biomass

2.9% hydro 0% solar

0.4% waste

2003 total: 608.8 TWhrenewables share: 45.6 TWh

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gas9.4%

lignite25.4%

nuclear15.8%

hard coal17.8%

others5.4%

wind9.1%

biomass7.0%

solar5.7%

waste 1.0%

hydro 3.4%

2014 total: 614 TWhrenewables share: 160.6 TWh

15. Apr 2023 17

The German federal government announced ambitious goals for the reduction of GHG and growth of RES, especially after the decision to shut down nuclear power plants by 2022.

The EEG has stimulated a significant growth of RES in Germany for more than ten years – significant share of RES at gross electricity production.

Conclusion

Marc Uhlig

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

Domestic production

Hard coal suppliers for the German market

Coal imports remain stable while domestic production has declined.

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01

4

Colombia

others

Australia

CanadaRussia

EU

South Africa

USA


Power plants, security of supplyMaking the transformation happen

Gross power generation capacities in Germany

Renewable capacity expansion has led to a growth in capacity while nuclear will be phased out until 2022.

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20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

300

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200 hydro

geothermal

photovoltaic

biomass

wind

pumped hydro

others

lignite

hard coal

gas

oil

nuclear

GW

renewable energies


Conventional power plants are needed to back up volatile renewables.

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German electricity system volatility today

Winter 2014 - week no. 4 (January) Summer 2014 - week no. 34 (August)

Solar

Wind

Po

we

r g

en

era

tion

(G

W)

Seasonal storage

Pumped storage

Oil

Gas

Hard coal

Lignite

Nuclear

Biomass

Hydro


Future: German electricity system volatility in 2022

Renewables can cover the total demand by 2022 but conventional back-up capacity for the winter will still be needed.

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GW

80

60

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Winter 2023 (November)

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat SunMon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

GW

80

60

40

20

Summer 2023 (August)

electricity demand photovoltaic hydroconventional

plantsonshore /

offshore windbiomass

Po

we

r g

en

era

tion

(G

W)


Average duration of supply failures in 2012

Germany has top energy security levels.

Germany

NetherlandsAustria Italy UK

Spain (2011)France

Portugal

SwedenPoland

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

excluding excep-tional events

including excep-tional events

average duration in min/a

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Four areas to increase flexibility

Different flexibility measures are suitable for varying shares of volatile renewables.

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Grid expansion

Flexibility RE curtailment

Demand response

Power-to-heat Pumped storage

Power-to-gas

Grids

Generation

Consumption

Storage

Share of RE80%65%50%20% 35%

2025 2035 2050 Target year

The power grid


Enhancing infrastructure for future needs

Marc Uhlig

The challenge: connecting supply and demand

New power lines need to transport excess supply in northern Germany to southern Germany in order to prevent shortages.

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solar

wind (installed)

wind (planned)

bottleneck

transmission grid

distribution grid

high-demand areas

Marc Uhlig

Priority projects in the First Federal Requirement Plan

36 expansion projects were identified as vital for security of supply.

15. Apr 2023 27

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1336 projects

5,700 km of priority lines by 2022

• 2,800 km new construction• 2,900 km optimisation

Marc Uhlig

The principles of the smart grid

Producers and consumers interact and communicate via the smart grid.

15. Apr 2023 28


Electricity/Energy costs and pricesThe benefits of market development and liberalisation


Price of rooftop PV systems in Germany

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Year


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Jun

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7D

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Ma

r 1

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Jun

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

net system price for 10 kW roof-top system installed capacity PV

syst

em

pri

ce [E

UR

/kW

p]

me

ga

wa

tt p

ea

k [M

Wp

]

Cost decline of photovoltaic systems and capacity growth in Germany

Broad market development and constant tariff reduction have more than halved photovoltaic system costs in Germany.

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Levelised cost of electricity in Europe 2014, 2020, 2030

Many technologies can already compete with conventional powerplants, onshore wind in particular.

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Price: 75 €/MWh

Price in€/MWh

The price is determined by the cost of the marginal technology.

33

Power plant dispatch in GW

Merit order (stylised)

Price: 35 €/MWh

RES nuclear lignite hard coal gas oil

Wholesale market pricing with merit order

Renewables shift the merit order and lower price levels.

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15. Apr 2023 Marc Uhlig

Demand: 60 GW

50

100

Muchas Gracias.

Absender | Die Exportinitiative Erneuerbare Energien | 15.04.2023 | Seite 34

Contact

German Energy Agency (dena)Division: Renewable Energy and Energy-Efficient MobilityName: Marc UhligTel.: +49 (0)30 72 61 65 – 602E-Mail: [email protected]:www.dena.de

Geschäftsstelle Exportinitiative Erneuerbare Energien im Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi)Tel.: 030 18 615- 6401/7386E-Mail: [email protected]: www.export-erneuerbare.de


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germany's renewable energy sector in the context of energy transition

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