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Foresight & Innovation
INNOPROM2011AdamGordon,M.S.,[email protected]
TamaraCarleton,PhDBillCockayne,PhDStanfordUniversity
Introduction
o Stanford Foresight & Innovation Group
o Strategic Foresight, Houston
o INSEAD
o Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight
o Forbes: “Management By Looking Ahead”
o South Africa – Innovation – Emerging Markets BRICSA
2
Paul Saffo on academics vs. futurists…
3
Foresight & Innovation at Stanford: Benefits of the Approach
o Acknowledge change, threats, opportunities of the future. Engage and stimulate thinking about the future.
o Connects long-term perspectives with innovation actions today. Overcome the gap between big idea and on-the-ground execution
o Built to work in the style of today’s collaborative, team-based approach to projects in the workplace
4
Seeing Future Opportunities (Threats)
That look of surprise
Getting Ahead of Change
Avoiding Surprises
Renewing Success (Innovation)
Foresight Tools Focused on Action
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Three Phases to Build Foresight
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Perspective Opportunity Solution
Phase I: Perspective
Develop a broad and historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward.
o What is the bigger context for the sector/industry you are interested in? o What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements can be
identified as drivers of today's reality? o When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what similarities in
timing and adoption exist today?
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Perspective Opportunity Solution
Phase II: Opportunity
Develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrows innovations.
o What themes are emerging that might shape or influence possible opportunities in the future?
o Which major changes about people over time, such as population movements and generational shifts, can we identify and understand that affect future changes?
o What might you expect from future users and customers?
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Perspective Opportunity Solution
Phase III: Solution
Define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Prototype new solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills.
o How can you determine the multiple paths possible to get from today to tomorrow's future innovation?
o Looking at what you've learned, how long does each step take along the various paths?
o What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in your control?
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Perspective Opportunity Solution
Phase I: Perspective
Context Maps Progression Curves Janus Cones
Perspective Opportunity Solution
Context Mapping is a mapping technique for capturing emergent conversation themes in complex problems to show integrated context.
Progression Curves are a graphical representation that explains the progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related filters.
Janus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events.
The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward.
© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton 15 For Workshop Participants Only
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Progression Curves Progression Curves explain the progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related filters.
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Common Technology & Social Curves
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Janus Cones Janus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how these timings affect potential future events.
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The Development of Silicon Valley
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2000 1990 1980 1970 Today
2009: “During a recession, Silicon Valley doesn’t curl up into a fetal position and pout. It continues to take chances, throwing sparks at kindling, knowing that something will catch fire. It’s the U.S. economy’s secret weapon.” "– Portfolio, 2/09
1960 1950
1992: TiE (The Indus Entrepre-neurs) founded 1978: Silicon
Valley Manufacturing Group founded
1952: IBM opened its San Jose R&D office
1946: Stanford Research Institute (SRI) founded
1990: San Jose airport expanded Terminal A
2000: SFO opened new international terminal
1968: Engelbart demo
1939: HP founded
1968: Intel founded
1976: Apple founded
1984: NUMMI plant opened
1958: Fairchild founded
1987: SEMANTECH founded
1994: Netscape, Yahoo! founded
1992: Apple closes Fremont
plant
1951: Stanford Industrial Park established (Varian Associates, GE, and Kodak sign first leases)
1958: NASA set ups research facility
2008: 1/3 of Stanford MBA students (and cases) are international
1957: Stanford MBA students start the Intern’l Business Club
1982: Silicon Valley Bank founded
2005: Sequoia Capital launched first China fund
2001: Accel Partners launched first EU fund
1972: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers founded
1964: UC Berkeley starts its study abroad program
1958: Stanford starts its study abroad program
1958: “[Sputnik] was a wakeup call, and America answered it.” – John Kao in Innovation Nation, 2008
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Development of Key Industries in S.Valley
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Phase II: Opportunity
Demographics Future Users Futuretelling
Perspective Opportunity Solution
Demographics is a research method to identify and track population changes within a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.
Future Users explores the potential future of a chosen demographic through the comparative analysis between similar groups over time.
Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best.
The second phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrow’s innovations.
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Demographics in 20 Years (2028)
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U.S.
China
India
Demographics is a research method to identify and track population growth within a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.
Future Users Future Users explores the potential future of a customer demographic through the comparison of changes to similar groups over time.
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Past Today Tomorrow
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Jimmie@31
Tommie@21
Tommie@31
Jimmie@21
Tommie@11
© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton
Describing a future user based on a real person today
A future persona describes a sample user (or customer segment) you want to target, based on current real evidence of similar target today
o Demographics – age, household income, religion, etc. o Interests – family details, hobbies, etc. o Aspirations – career goals, personal dreams, etc. o Beliefs – attitudes, values, etc. o Behaviors – shopping habits, technology usage, etc. o Other details – influencers, segment category, etc.
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Comparing Managers in India
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1996 2008 2020
Nikhil age 34
Siddhartha “Sid” age 34
Similarities
Both married and have children
Purchased apartment after marriage Commute using chauffeur-driven car
Domestic help takes care of sundry shopping, cleaning and cooking
Family owns a farmhouse
Shop foreign brand apparel in nearby malls
Differences
Nikhil changed jobs, Sid rose to "top position in father’s company
Nikhil lives separately, Sid lives with parents
Farmhouse is a novelty for Sid, "an ancestral land for Nikhil
Futuretelling Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular population need or possible scene from the future.
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Phase III: Solution
White Spots Change Paths Paper Mockups
Perspective Opportunity Solution
White Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in the ‘white spots’, or empty areas.
Change Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.
Paper mockups in three-dimensions (3D) are an advanced design method to prototype and communicate a new concept using paper and inexpensive materials. A specific iteration is the Dark Horse Prototype.
The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills.
© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton 32 For Workshop Participants Only
White Spots White Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in the ‘white spots’, or empty areas.
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Change Paths Change Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.
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Change Paths
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The Change Path to White Spots
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With a future opportunity in mind, creating a set of data-driven narratives helps to explore the Change Paths toward possible solutions that are 2+ innovation cycles in the future.
Paper Mockups
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Paper mockups in three-dimensional (3D) are a design method to prototype and communicate a new concept using paper and inexpensive materials.
© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 39
Integration
Foresight Tools Focused on Action
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Janus Cones
Context Maps
Perspective Opportunity Solution
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Future Users
Demographics
Futuretelling
Perspective Opportunity Solution
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3D Mockups
Change Paths
White Spots
Perspective Opportunity Solution
Taking Action Towards Future Innovation
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Illustrative
Questions?
Stanford Foresight & Innovation Network
Foresight and Innovation Bill Cockayne, Tamara Carleton
http://foresight.stanford.edu 424 Panama Mall Stanford
University Stanford, California 94305
Adam Gordon [email protected]
+44 790 6054848