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Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Page 1: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

Getting Back to Business

John Augustine, CFAChief Investment Strategist

Fifth Third Bank

February, 2011

Page 2: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Overview

* As of 4Q10** Fortune magazine, March 16, 2009

$111 billion assets - #13 nationally*

1,312 banking centers

2,445 ATMs

15 affiliates in 12 states

Fifth Third Bank has been dedicated to serving the needs families and businesses for more than 150 years

Top 10 Superregional Bank for 8 consecutive years**

Naples

Raleigh

Cincinnati

FlorenceLouisville

Lexington

Nashville

Atlanta

Augusta

Orlando

Tampa

Naples

Raleigh

Charlotte

Huntington

PittsburghCleveland

Columbus

Toledo

Detroit

Grand Rapids

Traverse City

Chicago

Evansville

Jacksonville

Indianapolis

St. Louis

Page 3: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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*Reflects only Fifth Third Securities managed assets associated with Fifth Third Private Bank, and does not reflect all assets managed through Fifth Third Securities, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fifth Third Bank.

Investment Advisors Division - Managed Assets Mix

FTAM12%

Fifth Third Secu-rities4%

Institutional Services

28%

Private Bank55%

Assets Under Management (12/31/10) = $25.2 billion

Page 4: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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1) 2011 Overview

Page 5: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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1. US economic growth in the 3% range – due to twin monetary & fiscal policy accommodation.

2. Continuation of economic rebuilding should = continuation of investment portfolio rebuilding.

3. Stocks have potential for a double-digit return year; bond 30-year bull market recedes.

4. Federal government continues to step back from economic & business influence.

5. US risks reside around commodity prices, Treasury yields, housing & regulatory overhang; global risks around Chinese growth and German reaction to supporting European debt.

2011 Theme – Getting Back to Business

Page 6: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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2) The Expansion Begins

Page 7: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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US nominal GDP at a new high in 2010 – the economy is in expansion

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '109,0009,000

10,00010,000

11,00011,000

12,00012,000

13,00013,000

14,00014,000

15,00015,000

16,00016,000

14870.40

Nominal GDP

Gross Domestic Product, Bil. $ - United States Recession Periods - United States

Source = FactSet

Page 8: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Household Net Worth – still recovering

Source = FactSet

'46 '49 '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '0900

10,00010,000

20,00020,000

30,00030,000

40,00040,000

50,00050,000

60,00060,000

70,00070,000Household Net Worth

Balance Sheet Of Households & Nonprofit Organizations - Net Worth, B.100 - United States Recession Periods - United States

Page 9: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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'74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '107575

8080

8585

9090

9595

100100

105105

110110

94.10

98.61

NFIB Business Optimism Survey

Nfib Small Business Economic Trends, Optimism Index, 1986=100, Sa - United States (AVG) Nfib Small Business Economic Trends, Optimism Index, 1986=100, Sa - United States Recession Periods - United States

Small Business Optimism –improving

Source = FactSet

Page 10: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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3) The Sustainability is debated

Page 11: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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'81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '0965

70

75

80

85

90

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Capacity Utilization (R)

UnemploymentRate (L)

Unemployment Rate Total, Percent, SA - United States (Right)Capacity Utilization Total index, Percent, SA - United States (Left)

Recession Periods - United States

Source = FactSet

Pressure Point #1 – Closing the Resource Utilization gap

Page 12: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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'46 '49 '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '0900

2,0002,000

4,0004,000

6,0006,000

8,0008,000

10,00010,000

12,00012,000

14,00014,000

16,00016,000

Owners Equity

Mortgage Debt

Household & Nonprofit Organizations - Owners' Equity In Household Real Estate, B.100 - United States Debt Outstanding - Total Households - Home Mortgage, D.3 - United States Recession Periods - United States

Pressure Point #2 – Closing the mortgage debt/owners equity gap

Source = FactSet

Page 13: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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'61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09-1,600-1,600

-1,400-1,400

-1,200-1,200

-1,000-1,000

-800-800

-600-600

-400-400

-200-200

00

200200

400400

Government surplus or deficit (AR bil. $)

Pressure Point #3 – Government spending vs. austerity

Source = FactSet

$1.3 trillion!

Page 14: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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'06 '07 '08 '09 '10-10-10

-5-5

00

55

1010

1515

2020

Japan

USEuro ZoneAustraliaChina

Brazil

IndiaEgypt

CPI % Changes - YoY

Pressure Point #4 – Global inflation

Page 15: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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4) Local trends

Page 16: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Atlanta/Georgia – Housing Trends

Source = FactSet

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '1080

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Home PriceIndex (L)

Building Permits (R)

Existing Home Sales (R)

S&P/Case-Shiller Atlanta Home Price Index - Index (Left)Existing Home Sales, Georgia, Housing Units, Saar - United States (Left)Housing Units Authorized By Building Permits, Georgia, Total, Nsa - United States (Right)

Page 17: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Atlanta/Georgia – Employment Trends

Source = FactSet

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '1033

44

55

66

77

88

99

1010

1111

1212

1313

US

Dekalb County

Fulton County

Unemployment Rate Atlanta City, Fulton County Part, Ga Nsa - United States Unemployment Rate Atlanta City, Dekalb County Part, Ga Nsa - United States Unemployment Rate - Percent, Sa - United States

Page 18: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Georgia – Business Openings & Closings

Source = FactSet

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '108,0008,000

10,00010,000

12,00012,000

14,00014,000

16,00016,000

18,00018,000

20,00020,000

Openings

Closings

Closings, Numberofestablishments, All Size Classes, Level (U.S. Data In Thousands), Georgia, Sa - United States Openings, Numberofestablishments, All Size Classes, Level (U.S. Data In Thousands), Georgia, Sa - United States

Page 19: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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5) Markets React

Page 20: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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'06 '07 '08 '09 '10600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

S&P 500 Price (R)

S&P 500 EPS (L)

S&P 500 Index and Forward Earnings Estimate

Standard & Poors 500 Composite Index, Price Return, USD, Close - United States (Left)Standard & Poors 500 Index, 12 Months Forward Index EPS, USD, End of Period - United States Top_Down

US Stocks –room-to-run and catch earnings

Source = FactSet

Page 21: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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4/08 7/08 10/08 1/09 4/09 7/09 10/09 1/10 4/10 7/10 10/10 1/111.51.5

22

2.52.5

33

3.53.5

44

4.54.5

10yr Treasury

10-Year Treasury Yield

Government Benchmarks 10 year, Yield, Percent, Close - United States Recession Periods - United States

10-year Treasury yield – staying in a range

Source = FactSet

Page 22: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb6060

8080

100100

120120

140140

160160

180180

200200

Energy

LivestockFoods

Precious Metals

Grains

Industrial Metals

Commodity Sub Sectors - One Year Index

Commodity prices – moving uncomfortably higher

Page 23: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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6) Focus on:

• individual investors

• institutional investors

• business

Page 24: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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1) Capital Appreciation (9%)

• Continue to structure for growth; reinvest profits incrementally.

• Total return, broadly diversified investing still operative in a low yield environment.

2) Income Focused (3-6% yields)

• Focus on corporate yields debt and equity yields

• Blue-chip stock dividends, REITs, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, preferred stocks, high yield bonds

3) Principal Preservation (cover inflation rate = 1.5% YoY)

• Focus on corporate debt; manage yield/credit quality/maturity trade-offs.

• Short-term corporate debt, income-paying absolute return funds, intermediate term treasuries.

Individuals & Institutions – keep rebuilding

Page 25: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Business – prudent expansion

1. Don’t Fall Behind the Expansion

• Focus on what you do best.

• Continue to enhance productivity.

• Expand your balance sheet to buy competitors/assets to take advantage of low financing rates and accelerated depreciation.

2. Rationalize Land, Labor & Capital

• Focus on return-on-equity (DuPont Model)

• Assume three to five year top-line domestic growth in 3% range.

• Utilize spare capacity via exports – where applicable (www.trade.gov).

3. Focus on the evolving Value-Proposition of Consumers

• Observe trends at the meetings, check-out lines, phone/internet center

• Stay ahead of demographic and ethnic trends (www.census.gov)

• Monitor the spending and social trends

Page 26: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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7) Staying connected

Page 27: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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Information & Insight

1. Daily Morning Market Report (www.53.com)2. Weekly Economic Beat (www.53.com) 3. Monthly Market Letter (Fifth Third representative)4. Quarterly Investment Strategy (www.53.com)

Accounts Types & Names

Agency, Custody, Trust, 401k, Brokerage, Pension, Foundation, Endowment

1. Passageway 2. Funds Management Account3. CustomPlus Portfolios

Summary

Page 28: Getting Back to Business John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Bank February, 2011

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Fifth Third Bank, Investment Advisors Division, and may not actually come to pass. This information is current as of the date of the presentation and is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions. Prior to making any financial or investment decision, you should assess, or seek advice from a professional regarding, whether any particular transaction is relevant or appropriate to your individual circumstances.Index performance is used throughout this presentation to illustrate historical market trends and performance.  Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur investment management fees.  An investor is unable to invest in an index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Fifth Third Asset Management, Inc (FTAM) is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Fifth Third Bancorp and an affiliated company with Fifth Third Bank Investment Advisors division.

Fifth Third Bancorp provides access to investments and investment services through various subsidiaries. Investments and Investment Services are:

Not FDIC Insured Offer No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value

Not Insured By Any Federal Government Agency Not A Deposit

Disclosures and Disclaimers