getting back to business john augustine, cfa chief investment strategist fifth third bank february,...
TRANSCRIPT
Getting Back to Business
John Augustine, CFAChief Investment Strategist
Fifth Third Bank
February, 2011
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Overview
* As of 4Q10** Fortune magazine, March 16, 2009
$111 billion assets - #13 nationally*
1,312 banking centers
2,445 ATMs
15 affiliates in 12 states
Fifth Third Bank has been dedicated to serving the needs families and businesses for more than 150 years
Top 10 Superregional Bank for 8 consecutive years**
Naples
Raleigh
Cincinnati
FlorenceLouisville
Lexington
Nashville
Atlanta
Augusta
Orlando
Tampa
Naples
Raleigh
Charlotte
Huntington
PittsburghCleveland
Columbus
Toledo
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Traverse City
Chicago
Evansville
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
St. Louis
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*Reflects only Fifth Third Securities managed assets associated with Fifth Third Private Bank, and does not reflect all assets managed through Fifth Third Securities, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fifth Third Bank.
Investment Advisors Division - Managed Assets Mix
FTAM12%
Fifth Third Secu-rities4%
Institutional Services
28%
Private Bank55%
Assets Under Management (12/31/10) = $25.2 billion
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1) 2011 Overview
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1. US economic growth in the 3% range – due to twin monetary & fiscal policy accommodation.
2. Continuation of economic rebuilding should = continuation of investment portfolio rebuilding.
3. Stocks have potential for a double-digit return year; bond 30-year bull market recedes.
4. Federal government continues to step back from economic & business influence.
5. US risks reside around commodity prices, Treasury yields, housing & regulatory overhang; global risks around Chinese growth and German reaction to supporting European debt.
2011 Theme – Getting Back to Business
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2) The Expansion Begins
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US nominal GDP at a new high in 2010 – the economy is in expansion
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '109,0009,000
10,00010,000
11,00011,000
12,00012,000
13,00013,000
14,00014,000
15,00015,000
16,00016,000
14870.40
Nominal GDP
Gross Domestic Product, Bil. $ - United States Recession Periods - United States
Source = FactSet
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Household Net Worth – still recovering
Source = FactSet
'46 '49 '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '0900
10,00010,000
20,00020,000
30,00030,000
40,00040,000
50,00050,000
60,00060,000
70,00070,000Household Net Worth
Balance Sheet Of Households & Nonprofit Organizations - Net Worth, B.100 - United States Recession Periods - United States
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'74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '107575
8080
8585
9090
9595
100100
105105
110110
94.10
98.61
NFIB Business Optimism Survey
Nfib Small Business Economic Trends, Optimism Index, 1986=100, Sa - United States (AVG) Nfib Small Business Economic Trends, Optimism Index, 1986=100, Sa - United States Recession Periods - United States
Small Business Optimism –improving
Source = FactSet
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3) The Sustainability is debated
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'81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '0965
70
75
80
85
90
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Capacity Utilization (R)
UnemploymentRate (L)
Unemployment Rate Total, Percent, SA - United States (Right)Capacity Utilization Total index, Percent, SA - United States (Left)
Recession Periods - United States
Source = FactSet
Pressure Point #1 – Closing the Resource Utilization gap
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'46 '49 '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '0900
2,0002,000
4,0004,000
6,0006,000
8,0008,000
10,00010,000
12,00012,000
14,00014,000
16,00016,000
Owners Equity
Mortgage Debt
Household & Nonprofit Organizations - Owners' Equity In Household Real Estate, B.100 - United States Debt Outstanding - Total Households - Home Mortgage, D.3 - United States Recession Periods - United States
Pressure Point #2 – Closing the mortgage debt/owners equity gap
Source = FactSet
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'61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09-1,600-1,600
-1,400-1,400
-1,200-1,200
-1,000-1,000
-800-800
-600-600
-400-400
-200-200
00
200200
400400
Government surplus or deficit (AR bil. $)
Pressure Point #3 – Government spending vs. austerity
Source = FactSet
$1.3 trillion!
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'06 '07 '08 '09 '10-10-10
-5-5
00
55
1010
1515
2020
Japan
USEuro ZoneAustraliaChina
Brazil
IndiaEgypt
CPI % Changes - YoY
Pressure Point #4 – Global inflation
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4) Local trends
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Atlanta/Georgia – Housing Trends
Source = FactSet
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '1080
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Home PriceIndex (L)
Building Permits (R)
Existing Home Sales (R)
S&P/Case-Shiller Atlanta Home Price Index - Index (Left)Existing Home Sales, Georgia, Housing Units, Saar - United States (Left)Housing Units Authorized By Building Permits, Georgia, Total, Nsa - United States (Right)
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Atlanta/Georgia – Employment Trends
Source = FactSet
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '1033
44
55
66
77
88
99
1010
1111
1212
1313
US
Dekalb County
Fulton County
Unemployment Rate Atlanta City, Fulton County Part, Ga Nsa - United States Unemployment Rate Atlanta City, Dekalb County Part, Ga Nsa - United States Unemployment Rate - Percent, Sa - United States
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Georgia – Business Openings & Closings
Source = FactSet
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '108,0008,000
10,00010,000
12,00012,000
14,00014,000
16,00016,000
18,00018,000
20,00020,000
Openings
Closings
Closings, Numberofestablishments, All Size Classes, Level (U.S. Data In Thousands), Georgia, Sa - United States Openings, Numberofestablishments, All Size Classes, Level (U.S. Data In Thousands), Georgia, Sa - United States
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5) Markets React
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'06 '07 '08 '09 '10600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
S&P 500 Price (R)
S&P 500 EPS (L)
S&P 500 Index and Forward Earnings Estimate
Standard & Poors 500 Composite Index, Price Return, USD, Close - United States (Left)Standard & Poors 500 Index, 12 Months Forward Index EPS, USD, End of Period - United States Top_Down
US Stocks –room-to-run and catch earnings
Source = FactSet
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4/08 7/08 10/08 1/09 4/09 7/09 10/09 1/10 4/10 7/10 10/10 1/111.51.5
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2.52.5
33
3.53.5
44
4.54.5
10yr Treasury
10-Year Treasury Yield
Government Benchmarks 10 year, Yield, Percent, Close - United States Recession Periods - United States
10-year Treasury yield – staying in a range
Source = FactSet
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Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb6060
8080
100100
120120
140140
160160
180180
200200
Energy
LivestockFoods
Precious Metals
Grains
Industrial Metals
Commodity Sub Sectors - One Year Index
Commodity prices – moving uncomfortably higher
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6) Focus on:
• individual investors
• institutional investors
• business
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1) Capital Appreciation (9%)
• Continue to structure for growth; reinvest profits incrementally.
• Total return, broadly diversified investing still operative in a low yield environment.
2) Income Focused (3-6% yields)
• Focus on corporate yields debt and equity yields
• Blue-chip stock dividends, REITs, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, preferred stocks, high yield bonds
3) Principal Preservation (cover inflation rate = 1.5% YoY)
• Focus on corporate debt; manage yield/credit quality/maturity trade-offs.
• Short-term corporate debt, income-paying absolute return funds, intermediate term treasuries.
Individuals & Institutions – keep rebuilding
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Business – prudent expansion
1. Don’t Fall Behind the Expansion
• Focus on what you do best.
• Continue to enhance productivity.
• Expand your balance sheet to buy competitors/assets to take advantage of low financing rates and accelerated depreciation.
2. Rationalize Land, Labor & Capital
• Focus on return-on-equity (DuPont Model)
• Assume three to five year top-line domestic growth in 3% range.
• Utilize spare capacity via exports – where applicable (www.trade.gov).
3. Focus on the evolving Value-Proposition of Consumers
• Observe trends at the meetings, check-out lines, phone/internet center
• Stay ahead of demographic and ethnic trends (www.census.gov)
• Monitor the spending and social trends
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7) Staying connected
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Information & Insight
1. Daily Morning Market Report (www.53.com)2. Weekly Economic Beat (www.53.com) 3. Monthly Market Letter (Fifth Third representative)4. Quarterly Investment Strategy (www.53.com)
Accounts Types & Names
Agency, Custody, Trust, 401k, Brokerage, Pension, Foundation, Endowment
1. Passageway 2. Funds Management Account3. CustomPlus Portfolios
Summary
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The opinions expressed herein are those of Fifth Third Bank, Investment Advisors Division, and may not actually come to pass. This information is current as of the date of the presentation and is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions. Prior to making any financial or investment decision, you should assess, or seek advice from a professional regarding, whether any particular transaction is relevant or appropriate to your individual circumstances.Index performance is used throughout this presentation to illustrate historical market trends and performance. Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur investment management fees. An investor is unable to invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Fifth Third Asset Management, Inc (FTAM) is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Fifth Third Bancorp and an affiliated company with Fifth Third Bank Investment Advisors division.
Fifth Third Bancorp provides access to investments and investment services through various subsidiaries. Investments and Investment Services are:
Not FDIC Insured Offer No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value
Not Insured By Any Federal Government Agency Not A Deposit
Disclosures and Disclaimers