ghg verification & the carbon cycle hyperspectral workshop jh butler, noaa 31 march 2011 page 1...

GHG Verification & the Carbon CycleHyperspectral Workshop

JH Butler, NOAA31 March 2011

Greenhouse gases – What we do well and what we need to do better

James H. Butlerwith Pieter Tans, Colm Sweeney,

Arlyn Andrews, John B. Miller

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory31 March 2011



Outline

• Why should we be interested in CO2?

• Monitoring CO2 & other greenhouse gases today (What we do now)

• What we get from surface and air-based measurements

• What we need



Why should we be interested in CO2?



Two questions, two goals

• Question: How successful are human efforts to reduce GHG emissions? Goal: validate regional

GHG management strategies

• Question: How will Earth’s system respond to climate change? Goal: understand climate-

change feedbacks.

Airborne Fraction of CO2 FF Emissions 1959-2006

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20%

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100%

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Year

AB

F (atm

gro

wth

/ff em

issio

n)



Monitoring greenhouse gases today



NOAA Global GHG Measurement Network



Surface-based Networks

CarboEurope

WMO Global Atmospheric Watch FluxNet

TCCON

NOAA

AGAGE



0.1 ppmEC-NOAA Flask Inter-Comparison

Project

EC-NOAA Flask Inter-Comparison

Project



• $25M, 5 year investment to install & operate 100 advanced GHG systems• ~50 in U.S., ~25 in Europe, ~25 around remaining continents• Measure CO2 (carbon dioxide) & CH4 (methane)

Earth Networks – Emerging



What we get from surface and air-based measurements



Global Trends are Good to Go



Latitudinal Distributions are Consistent



CDPW, Raleigh, NC

4 October 2010JH Butler, NOAA /ESRLGlobal Monitoring Division



Fire Fire ModuleModule

CarbonTracker

ObservationObservationss

Biosphere Biosphere ModuleModule

Fossil FuelFossil FuelModuleModule

EnsembleEnsembleKalman Kalman FilterFilter

Ocean Ocean ModuleModule

TM5TM52-way 2-way nested nested

transporttransport



“Regional” flux estimates are

emerging

But uncertainties remain high



Unique Features from Surface and Air-based Measurements



Tall Tower Measurements

• 1000-1500 ft high• “Continuous” sampling at 3-6 levels• Additional flask samples for ~50 tracers



650

600

550

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Car

bon

Dio

xide

, ppm

7/15/2007 7/17/2007 7/19/2007

Intake:11m30m76m122m244m396m

Quantitative signatures of biological CO2 uptake and release

LEF: July 2007

Large diurnal cycle at lowest levels results from combination of nighttime respiration and shallow boundary layers.

Park Falls, WI, July



AirCore profileAirCore meanAIRS retrievalOCO retrievalFTS retrieval

In-situ Measurements Help Understand Remote Signals



Validation(Independent Vertical Measurements)



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F-134aBenzene CH3BrCH3Cl

COS

CO

C2Cl4 CHCl3 CH3I CHBr3

F-22

WesternCanada (ESP)3 Aug 2005

Sam

plin

g A

ltit

ude

(abo

ve s

ea le

vel,

km)

Biomass Burning?

Ocean Emission…

Sou

rce:

Ste

ve M

ontz

ka



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Eastern USA (NHA)Nov 2005Black = industrial gases

Urban influence isclear—continued emissions of CH3CCl3

COF-134a

C2Cl4 COS CH3ClCH3CCl3 CH3Br

Sam

plin

g A

ltit

ude

(abo

ve s

ea le

vel,

km)

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CO2SF6

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rce:

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ontz

ka



Separating Fossil Fuel from Biosphere Contributions



What Do We Still Need?

• More robust and frequent surface maps Terrestrial (Vegetation, Soils, Fires) Ocean (Sal, Temp, Winds)

• Better global coverage of CO2 and other GHG mixing ratios Areas without surface or in situ access “Hot spots” of emissions Improved sensing skill from satellites

• Improved and more frequently updated emission inventories

• Improved assimilation and ensemble inverse models• Higher resolution atmospheric transport in global models



Questions?“Carbon Weather”

January(net CO2emission)

July(net CO2 uptake)

Long-termObservations

CarbonTracker™



Backup Slides



For Regional Scale Resolution and Lower Uncertainty . . .

• More Observations (x 10?) Atmosphere Ocean Terrestrial Satellites Improved Instrumentation

• Improved Modeling to Serve Smaller Footprints Transport (÷ 10?) Assimilation, Inversion, Diagnosis Prediction

• Enhanced Computing Capacity

QA/QC, Data Management



Atmospheric Measurements “Land” exchange

Oceanic Measurements

Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes

Emission Inventories

Deep Ocean

Surface Based

Satellite

Aircraft

Satellite Mapping

Data Integration ProductsCO2 and Other GHGs



Putting CO2 Emissions in Perspective



NOAA GHG Measurement NetworkNorth America



Current Tall TowersCurrent Aircraft

Potential Future Tower & Aircraft

Local Networks?

Maximizing the use of local and regional networks



The Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

• A 26% increase in “warming potential” since 1990 is mostly due to CO2

• Gases other than CO2 are involved, some significantly

NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

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iati

ve F

orc

ing

(W

m-2

)

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N2O

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nu

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reen

ho

use

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In

dex

(A

GG

I)

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1.42008 AGGI = 1.26



Aircraft Deployment

Picarro

Flasks

AirCore

AirCore

Picarro

Flasks

pressure at which the flask was sampled.

CO2

(ppm)

-0.07 ± 0.3

CH4

(ppb)

-0.2 ± 2.9

Mean offset



How to provide the best regional information?

May 16, 2005 May 17, 2005 May 18, 2005

(Carbontracker.noaa.gov)



Validation(Independent Vertical Measurements)



NOAA Leadership and Approach

• NOAA’s capabilities represent an end-to-end approach to CO2 and other greenhouse gas monitoring, yielding long-term, operational products.

• NOAA’s capabilities span a range of activities relevant to climate science, including observations, analysis, modeling, prediction, and assessment.

• NOAA leads the development of global observational networks and numerous field programs for GHGs, and works closely with partnering agencies, institutes, and universities across the nation and around the world to sustain and improve its operations.

• NOAA has the experience and capability in developing research systems, expanding them, and transitioning them into operations and products (e.g., weather modeling, climate reference network)



Toward an Interagency Global Greenhouse Gas Information System

→ An operational system to support CO2 and other GHG management strategies at policy relevant scales:

• Validate CO2 emissions reductions and offsets

• Provide information on sources and sinks• Integrate existing and new assets from the US and International community

• Key Attributes Driven by policy needs Develops actionable products Provides global coverage Transparent & objective Sustained & scalable

38



Carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases

• CO2 contributes about 2/3 of the total radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases today

• CO2 is responsible for ~90% of the increase in radiative forcing each year

• CO2 increases only 0.5% each year (2 ppm out of ~400)• CO2 near Earth’s land surface changes up to 20% each

day due to the biosphere alone• CO2 in the atmosphere changes about 5% seasonally,

also the biosphere• CO2 sources are different everywhere• The ocean and land biosphere take up almost ½ of the

CO2 emitted into the atmosphere • Increases in methane and nitrous oxide sources are

widespread, diverse, difficult to detect, and also caused by humans



Kinds of “in situ” Monitoring

• Surface flasks – high accuracy, > 50 gases per flask, weekly samples repeated from same remote locations

• Aircraft flask packages – weekly vertical profiles, high accuracy, > 30 gases per flask

• Tall towers – hourly to continuous accurate measurements at several levels (3-5 gases), accompanied by weekly flask packages (30+ gases)

• Emerging approaches − AirCore® for complete, accurate vertical profiles, new lasers for stable field measurements, infrared approaches for remote sensing

• Eddy flux towers – short towers measure land-surface fluxes locally (1-3 gases)



2:00 AM LST 2:00 PM LST

Vertical Profile of CO2 at LEF: JulyDaily variability of CO2 is large

Park Falls, WI,July



tropopause

ground

Atmospheric Vertical Profiles



Globalview,(annual)

Data sets &Visual displays

(variable)

Interactive Data Visualization (daily)

NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

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tive

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rcin

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-2)

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CH4

N2O

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nu

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us

e G

as

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de

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GI)

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Greenhouse Gas Index (annual)

CarbonTracker(annual)

Global trends (monthly)

DATA Products Services



Summary• A comprehensive GHG information system is needed to

inform policy and strategies of GHG emissions.• Such a system includes increased observations, higher

resolution modeling, and ensemble analysis. Observations include in situ and remotely sensed data.

• Surface and airborne measurements are useful, and in some cases essential, to Provide reliable, accurate global trends and distributions Understand trends in biospheric contributions Improve inventories, especially of gases with biospheric

interactions Interpret and understand satellite retrievals Separate biospheric from fossil fuel contributions Attribute emissions reductions to sectors of the economy Improve transport modeling


JH Butler, NOAA31 March 2011Source: Ken Masarie

SENSITIVITY TO MEASUREMENT BIAS OF REGIONAL SOURCE/SINK ESTIMATES



NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas

Index

• Provides a robust measure of the long-term influence of GHG emissions on climate

• Global Index

• Intended audience is educators, policy-makers, public



• Climate Change (IPCC 2007) Global warming is unequivocal. Human-emitted GHGs are causing it. CO2 is the most important of these GHGs

• Ocean acidification is caused by increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, Independent of of climate change Potentially harsh consequences for marine

ecosystems.

Two Global Environmental Problems

ghg verification & the carbon cycle hyperspectral workshop jh butler, noaa 31 march 2011 page 1...

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