global adaptation index (gain ) measuring what matters carnegie moscow center moscow, russia |...
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Global Adaptation Index™ (“GaIn™”)
Measuring What MattersCarnegie Moscow Center
Moscow, Russia | November 9, 2011
Rev. 04/18/23
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Photo courtesy: Oxfam
International
Photo courtesy: ugraland
The Adaptation Challenge •The world is changing
•Mitigation is not working …
•Adaptation is essential and urgent
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Photo courtesy: Citt
The Institute
•Formed in 2010
•First major organization to focus exclusively on adaptation
•Nonprofit, nonpartisan & private sector led
The Global Adaptation Institute is a non-profit organization guided by a vision of building resilience
to climate change and other global forces as a key component to sustainable development.
Our mission is to enhance the world’s understanding of the urgency for adaptation to climate change and
other global forces and for the support needed through private and public investments for
developing countries.
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Photo courtesy: thisisbossi
Our Work
•Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
•Demonstration projects
•Education and outreach
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Photo courtesy: Oxfam International
These Investments Are Not Optional
•Urbanization, population growth and economic development will and should continue
•Failure to adapt will lead to an increase in losses
•We are already suffering an ‘adaptation deficit’
Percentage of global population affected by climate-related disasters
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database – www.emdat.be, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (Belgium)
Trend line
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These Investments Are Not Optional•$30-100 billion USD per year needed in adaptation investments for developing countries
•Current flows to developing countries <$1 billion USD per year
Adaptation Investment Gap
1. Allocation estimate is an Institute summation of 2011 annual adaptation allocations by the UNFCCC, World Bank and Global Environment Facility. 2. Parry et al. “Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change.” Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, London and International Institute for Environment and Development (UK). 2009 3. The World Bank Group. “The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change.” 2010
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World totalDeveloping countries
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Most Investment Needs to Come from the Private Sector
•Governments must facilitate private sector action through appropriate public policies
•Greater commitment from UNFCCC and multilaterals on adaptation
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The Readiness Matrix™
•Information to assist private, public and NGO actors in identifying threats and opportunities
•Rigorous tool to help prioritize investments
•Simple, iconic index to guide governments on how best to “move the needle”
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Global Adaptation
Index (“GaIn”)
•A navigation tool to prioritize and measure progress in adapting to climate change
•Relevant to governments, NGOs, international institutions and the private sector
•Extensive process to develop, test and review
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
State of the World on Adaptation
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Criteria for Selecting Metrics
and GaIn
Consultation
•Vulnerability
•Readiness
•Criteria for selecting metrics Transparent and Authoritative sources Open Access Structured and modular Actionable Temporal (data tracked through time) Scalable
Several hundred metrics considered 38 indicators in current version Over 100,000 items of data go into GaIn
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Vulnerability Measures
•Currently 24 measures
•Quantity and Quality measures for core sectors
Sector Exposure Sensitivity Capacity
Water
Food
Health
Infrastructure
Coastal Energy
Transport
Legend
Quantitative
Qualitative
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Vulnerability Measures
•Readily expandable
•Modular design is adaptable to include different inputs
Sector Exposure Sensitivity Capacity
Water
Food
Health
Ecosystem Services1
Infrastructure
Coastal Energy
Transport Urban (Public)1
Informal Settlements1
Legend
Quantitative
Qualitative 1. Possible indicators for inclusion in future versions of GaIn
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Vulnerability Indicators
1. Indicators are taken from the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) with permission from The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal. 2. Indicators taken from World Governance Indicators (WGI) with permission from the World Bank.3. Taken from International Telecommunication Union data with permission from the United Nations. 4. Taken from World Development Indicators with permission form the World Bank
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Component Indicator
Economic1
Business freedomTrade freedomFiscal FreedomGovernment SpendingMonetary FreedomInvestment FreedomFinancial Freedom
Governance2
Voice & Accountability
Political Stability & Non-Violence
Control of Corruption
Social
Mobiles per 100 persons3
Labor Freedom1
Tertiary Education4
Rule of Law2
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Readiness Indicators
•Currently 14 measures
Testing the Indices
•Group countries into blocks of similar GaIn Vulnerability
•Calculate the proportion of their population affected by a climate disaster (1985-2009)
•GaIn Vulnerability and recent climate risk appear to be related
Does the GaIn Vulnerability score relate to the impacts of recent
disasters?
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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The Rankings
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Who’s on Top?
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Lowest Ranks?
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Improvements
•The readiness and vulnerability scores are obviously correlated, but there is a scatter of countries across the Readiness Matrix
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Readiness Matrix 2009The Readiness Matrix
Vu
lnera
bil
ity
•Richness in interpretation of the time series information
GaIn performance over time (1995 - 2010)
Readiness Low High
Low
Hig
h
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Recent Performance
•Direct measures of income or wealth were avoided in deriving GaIn
•Nevertheless, still highly correlated
Vulnerability compared with GDP per capita
1. Logarithm of the Gross Domestic Product per capita (in units of 2005 USD) adjusted for purchasing power parity
Increasing wealth
Incr
easi
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vu
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bil
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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Ln(GDP[PPP]) per cap1
All countries (1995 – 2010)
Vulnerability and Poverty
Income Adjusted
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
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The Rankings
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Roles for the Public Sector
•Understand greatest needs for the most vulnerable
•Determine most efficient use of resources
•Understand relative urgencies
•Remove impediments to action by public and private sector
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Roles for the Private Sector
•New products & services
•Risk mitigation
•Corporate Social Responsibility
•Ecosystem & environmental markets
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Demonstration Projects
•Over 270 projects identified
•10 projects profiled for discussion of potential for private sector engagement
•Currently, a significant lack of purely private sector-led adaptation initiatives
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Project Selection Criteria
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Linking Projects to GaIn
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Partnering with the Institute
•Advisory Council
•Council of Scientific Advisors
•Director and Trustee level of support
• Global Adaption Index
• Demonstration Projects
• Outreach
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THANK YOU!
• Questions?
Please contact:Dr. Ian Noble Chief [email protected] (202) 559-4540
Dr. Bruno Sanchez-Andrade Nuño Director of Science & [email protected](202) 559-4541
Global Adaptation Institute1747 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 1125
Washington, DC 200061-202-559-4549
www.globalai.org
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