global attractiveness index - esteri...2017/06/01  · source: the european house - ambrosetti...

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© 2017 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This document is property of TEH-A. It may not be reproduced, memorized for storage in an electronic data base or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or other), in whole or in part, without the express written consent of TEH-A. Istanbul, 20 th June 2017 GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX The true barometer of a country's attractiveness Key results of the project Strictly Confidential The European House - Ambrosetti has been named, for the third year, best Private Think Tank in Italy and 4 th in Europe in the University of Pennsylvania’s “Global Go To Think Tanks Report” Lorenzo Tavazzi Head of the Scenario and Intelligence Division

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Page 1: GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX - Esteri...2017/06/01  · Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration Reputation Institute (Country RepTrak Pulse) data, 2017 14 The objectives

© 2017 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This document is property of TEH-A. It may not bereproduced, memorized for storage in an electronic data base or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording or other), in whole or in part, without the express written consent of TEH-A.

Istanbul, 20th June 2017

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEXThe true barometer of a country's attractiveness

Key results of the project

Strictly Confidential

The European House - Ambrosetti has been named, for the third year, best Private Think Tank in Italy and4th in Europe in the University of Pennsylvania’s “Global Go To Think Tanks Report”

Lorenzo TavazziHead of the Scenario and Intelligence Division

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The European House – Ambrosetti

The European House –Ambrosetti (TEH-A), established in 1965, is a consultancy firm headquartered in Italy and with offices world-wide

Boston

Istanbul Beijing

Shanghai

Tokyo

ItalyAnconaBologna Milan NaplesRomeTurinTriesteVerona

Europe

Berlin

Brussels

London

Madrid

Seoul

Singapore

Johannesburg

TEH-A is among the world’s top private think tanks (the University of Pennsylvania ranked TEH-A 1st in Italy and in the top ten in Europe)

TEH-A provides strategy and management consulting services, strategic scenarios and research, forums and top-executive education programs

Our flagship forum “Intelligence On The World, On Europe, On Italy” (“Villa d’Este Forum”) is one of the most important gatherings of top executives taking place in Europe; 2017 will mark the 43rd forum

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The European House – Ambrosetti: key facts and figures*

(*) In the University of Pennsylvania 2016 Global Go To Think Tanks Report

200PEOPLETHINK

TANK

Over 70#1EVENTS

300

Organized meetings and

gatherings yearly

EXPERTS

2,000

National and international

experts involved in per

year

10,000MANAGERS

Accompanied in their search for

growth and development

Over 100STRATEGIC

STUDIES

Addressed to Italian and

international institutions per

year

In cross-border M&A operations,

with its affiliate

K-Finance

CONSULTING FIRM

Over 50YEARS

Working alongside

entrepreneurs to help them grow

400CLIENTS

Served in consulting

per year

Demonstrating their passion and

commitment

Served each year, through

counseling in Family

Agreements and Governance

Systems

FAMILY BUSINESSES

COUNTRIES

12

Direct presence or partnership

#1

1st in Italy, in the European top ten and in the World top one-

hundred most-esteemed

independent out of 6,846 Think Tanks

globally (*)

ENGINEERS

130

Dedicated to digital

transformation consultancy by partnering with

CEFRIEL (Milan Polytechnic)

(*) With reference to a single year

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The starting point: why managing «attractiveness» is relevant

Growth of income and value addedInvestment

(local/foreign)

Know-how(research, development, etc.)

Tourist flows

Residential settlement

CATEGORIES/ELEMENTS TO ATTRACT

Growth of employment

Increased capital available

Widespread innovation

Cultural cross-fertilization

LOCAL SPINOFFS

Input Output

Talents/highly-skilled workers

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The starting point: “attractiveness” is a zero-sum game

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD and World Bank data, 2016

55%43%

2%

DevelopedEconomies

DevelopingEconomies

TransitionEconomies

55%43%

2%

Economiesviluppate

Economie invia di sviluppo

Economie intransizione

$1.762

mld

Ec. sviluppate

Ec. in via di sviluppo

Ec. in transizione

$962 mld

$765 mld

$35 mld

2005-2015

Developed Economies

Developing Economies

Transition Economies

$1,762 bn

mld va cambiato in bn

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Attractiveness is a strategic issue for Italy (and Turkey)

China

1

Hong Kong2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

USA

UK

Singapore

Brazil

Canada

Australia

India

Netherlands

2015 inward flows(bn$, current prices)

vs. 2014 2015 inward flows(bn$, current prices)

22

MexicoSwitzerland

Luxembourg

France

Turkey

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

380

175

136

101

73

69

65

65

52

49

44

43

40

32

31

30

25

22

20

17

Vs. 2014

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD and World Bank data, 2016

Ireland

British Virgin Islands

Germany

Belgium

Italy

#Rank by flows

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The rational behind the Global Attractiveness Index

International rankings have a significant role in:

Steering companies investment decisions and public policies

Positioning a country-system in the international community

Considering the most relevant international rankings:

Italy usually scores very poorly, often behind developing economies

This applies also for other developed countries (e.g. Spain), countries that are leaders in some areas like science and technology (e.g. Japan) or that are destination of important FDI’s flows (e.g. China)

Also Turkey is penalized despite its economic and strategic role

Generally speaking, current international rankings tend to project a misrepresented image of the actual reality of an economy

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Reality vs. ranking?

Italy

8th globally considering GDP

9th considering export

4th globally considering the Value Added of manufacturing industry

13th globally considering GFCF (GrossFixed Capital Formation)

Turkey

18th globally considering GDP

Real GDP growth 2.5% vs 1.7% Europe*

More than 950,000 high school graduates with around half from vocational and technical high schools

Italy

44th Global Competitiveness Index 2016-2017

50th Ease of Doing Business 2016

77th World Press Freedom Index 2016

61th Corruption Perceptions Index

Turkey

55th Global Competitiveness Index 2016-2017

69th Ease of Doing Business 2016

43rd Global Innovation Index

46th World Talent Index

Real economy Ranking

(*) Source: Economic Outlook, IMF, June 2017Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration, 2017

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Mission and objectives of the Global Attractiveness Index project

1. Analyzing the methodologies applied by main international rankings and highlight their strengths and weaknesses

2. Building an innovative and reliable index on country-attractiveness

3. Identifying attractiveness’ Key Performance Indicators and set up an interpretative model (“Tableau de Bord”)

4. Studying the best practices to manage the country’s image and positioning in international rankings

5. Devising recommendations and proposals for an effective strategy in order to improve the Country image and attractiveness

MISSION

Making available to international decision makers an Index able to provide a sound representation of country's attractiveness and competitive sustainability and, thus, reliable guidance to support business choices and public policy

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The Advisory Board of the project

INDEPENDENT STATISTICAL AUDIT

Joint Research Center (JRC)

PARTNERS

Enrico GiovanniniFull Professor of EconomicStatistics, Università Di Roma “Tor Vergata”; former President ISTAT and Minister of Labour and Social Policies

Ferruccio de BortoliJournalist, Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas

SCIENTIFIC COMMETTEE

THE EUROPEAN HOUSE – AMBROSETTI WORKING TEAM

Lorenzo Tavazzi (Project Leader), Cetti Lauteta, Massimiliano Sartori, Benedetta Brioschi, Arianna Landi with the supervision of Valerio De Molli (Managing Director)

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Our analysis on 80 country indexes and 650 KPIs shows some recurrent criticalities

EXTENSIVE OF SURVEY

WEIGHTING

“OPTIMAL” MODELS

NON-HOMOGENEOUS

DATA

“CRITICAL MASS”

STATIC

Often are poorly statistically representative and subjective, also according those who provide answers

Introducing subjective elements

The functioning model of the country where the Institution providing the ranking is based conditions the parameters and the comparison

Different aggregation criteria are used for non-comparable data

The absolute dimension of a country is not taken into account

The sustainability of the positioning in the middle-term is not taken in account (“backward looking” view)

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Country Ranking

Index Institute Country US Switz. Germany France Australia

Ease of Doing Business WB USA 8th 31st 17th 29th 15th

Global Competitiveness Index WEF Switzerland 3rd 1st 5th 21st 22th

World CompetitivenessScoreboard

IMD Switzerland 3rd 2th 12th 32ty 17th

Global Peace Index IEP Australia 114th 9th 16th 51st 12th

Social Progress Index SPI USA 19th 5th 15th 18th 4th

Corruption Perception Index TI Germany 18th 5th 10th 23rd 13rd

Global Talent CompetitivenessIndex

INSEAD France 4th 1st 17th 24th 6th

Global Manufacturing Index Deloitte USA 2nd 12th 3rd 22nd 21st

Global Innovation Index INSEAD France 4th 1st 9th 15th 23rd

It seems that correlations between high scores in the rankings and the nationality of the editors' institutes exist

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«Cultural» bias and attitudes can influence international rankings

57.1

Italians' judgment on their country

External reputation

(average score in foreign countries

investigated)

Internal reputation

(Italians' judgment on their country)

71.7 57.1

Country reputation (internal and external), 2017

80+

70-79

60-69

40-59

0-39

Excellent

Strong

Moderate

Poor

Scarce

Legend

ITALY

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration Reputation Institute (Country RepTrak Pulse) data, 2017

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The objectives defined to build the Global Attractiveness Index (GAI)

Annual update, allowed by the usage of variables (KPI) periodically detected from main international institutionsREPLICABILITY

OBJECTIVITY

SOUNDNESS

MEANINGFULNESS

Principally based on quantitative and objective variables coming from main international database

Few proxy indicators, non-dependent between each other

Focus on results (output) compared to efforts (input)

GAI goal: measure the attractiveness of a Country, critical element to evaluate its development capability

INTERNAL EXTERNAL

Capability to retain resources already in the Country

Capability to attract resources not yet in the Country

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We identified 4 attributes to define a country’s attractiveness ...

Allows the circulation of economic and human resources

Promotes scientific and technologic progress for both companies and citizens

Ensure the correct functioning of capital market, products market and labor market

Owns distinctive and valuable

assets with a strong positioning in the

mind map (business community and public

opinion)

Openness

Innovation

Efficiency

Endowment

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... and identified the characteristics of a country’s sustainability

Has sound macro-economics,

institutional and social

fundamentals

Reactsadequatelyto shocks

High life standards

and environmentstandards

Resilience(+)

Vulnerability(-)

Reacts to/absorbs shocks and/or crisis or uncertainty periods and is capable to positively adapt itself to changes, adjusting institutional, social and economic structures and models

1.

2. Is exposed to negative impacts coming from harmful situations/events (internal or external), because of its intrinsic economic, social and organizational characteristics

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Global Attractiveness Index (GAI) Structure

aa

Innovation

Openness

Endowment

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX

(144 COUNTRIES)

Sustainability Index(IS)

Positioning Index(IP)

Vulnerability

Resilience

Efficiency

Dynamicity Index(ID)

Δ Innovation

Δ Openness

Δ Endowment

Δ Efficiency

A

B

C

The robustness of the GAI methodology was ascertained by means of an independent statistical audit performed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission

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Attractiveness Key Performance Indicator identified

Openness Innovation Efficiency Endowment Resilience Vulnerability

(FDI flows +

Country’s

investments

abroad) on world

total

(Export+Import),

on world total

(Foreign tourists

+ national

tourists travelling

abroad) on total

population

Foreign College

Students on

young pop.

Number of

immigrants on

total pop.

Employees in

high-tech

sectors on total

employees

Export of high-

tech goods on

world total

Internet users

as a share of

population

ICT

Development

Index

Number of

scientific

publications on

world total

Unemployment

rate

Logistics

Performance

Index

TFP

Total Tax Rate

Rule of Law

Index

GDP on world

total

Gross National

Product per-

capita

Gross Fixed

Investments on

national GDP

Index of Natural

and Cultural

endowment

Number of

graduates on

world total

Human

Development

Index

Global Peace

Index

Life expectancy

at birth

World Giving

Index

Average number

of years of

schooling

Debt/GDP

Inflation rate

Market

concentration

index

Number of

people killed by

natural disasters

(on 1,000

people, in the

last 3 years)

Number of

suicides, % of

total population

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GAI

Rank 2016

GAI

Score 2016

Country

Dinamicity

Positioning

Sustainability

US 1 100,0

Germany 2 99,6

Japan 3 98,9

Canada 4 98,1

Singapore 5 97,7

UK 6 90,4

Australia 7 88,6

The Netherlands 8 86,9

South Korea 9 85,8

China 10 85,7

Switzerland 11 83,9

France 12 82,8

Hong Kong 13 80,9

Italy 14 73,0

Austria 15 71,8

Denmark 16 71,8

Russia 17 71,0

Sweden 18 70,2

Spain 19 68,6

Ireland 20 66,4

Turkey 45 46,1

Critical

High

Medium

Low

Legend

The Global Attractiveness Index 2016

From 1=min to 100=max

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GAI reflects attractiveness

Global Attractiveness Index and Gross Fixed Investments(Gross Fixed Capital Formation, bln. US$), 2015, OECD Countries

N.B. USA outlier

Germany

Japan

Canada

UK

South Korea

The Netherlands

Australia

Switzerland

France

Italy

Austria

Denmark

Sweden

Spain

Ireland

Norway

Luxembourg

Belgium

Finland

Czech Rep.

New ZelandPoland

Iceland

Mexico

Estonia

Chile Israel

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Turkey

Portugal

Latvia

Greece

-1E+11

1E+11

3E+11

5E+11

7E+11

9E+11

1,1E+12

0,200 0,250 0,300 0,350 0,400 0,450 0,500 0,55010030 807040 50 60 90 GAI Index

(1=min; 100=max)

USA

1.000

800

600

400

200

GFCF (bln.$)

0

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016

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= rank Italy

19 9 34 33 31 12 14 51 33 7 110 21 40 133 30 8 27 114 63 16

Italy 14

144

1

Italy 21

144

1

GAI provides a reliable Tableau de Bord for the decisionmakers

Italy14/144

Dynamicity Index

Sustainability Index

Positioning Index

Innovation Efficiency EndowmentOpenness

For

eign

tou

rists

+ n

atio

nal

tour

ists

tra

velli

ng

abro

ad

FD

I IN

+ In

vest

imen

ti O

UT

Exp

ort

+ Im

port

For

eign

Col

lege

Stu

dent

s

Nt m

igra

nts

Em

plo

yees

in h

igh

-tec

h s

ecto

rs

Exp

ort

of h

igh-

tech

goo

ds

Inte

rnet

use

rs

ICT

Dev

elop

men

t

Inde

x

Num

ber

of s

cien

tific

publ

icat

ions

Une

mpl

oym

ent

rate

Logi

stic

Per

form

ance

Ind

ex

Tot

al f

acto

rpr

oduc

tivity

Tot

al t

axra

te

Rul

eof

Law

Inde

x

GD

P

Gro

ssN

atio

nal

Pro

duct

per

-cap

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Gro

ss F

ixed

Inv

estm

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Inde

x of

Nat

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tura

l

endo

wm

ent

Num

ber

of g

radu

ates

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The Tableau de Bord for Italy

4 “work areas” for our Country:

1. Strengthen the national innovation ecosystem and the ability to create “disruption” by implementing a “national innovation strategy”

2. Support the manufacturing system development and the elaboration of new production models by enhancing service automation and integration and both Internet and IT technologies in industrial production

3. Modernize the training and requalification of the labour force to cope with the new requirements of production and society by introducing innovative educational approaches and promoting lifelong learning

4. Improve the efficiency of the Country’s basic services (PA, justice system and logistics) accelerating ongoing reforms

ATTRACTIVENESS’S

ATTRIBUTES

(RANK ITALY)

Openness

(17/144)

Innovation

(10/144)

Efficiency

(50/144)

Endowment

(15/144)

N.B. Positioning in relation to competing countries needs to be assessed

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= rank Turkey

Dynamicity Index

Sustainability Index

For

eign

tou

rists

+ n

atio

nal

tour

ists

tra

velli

ng

abro

ad

Positioning Index

Innovation EfficiencyOpenness

FD

I IN

+ In

vest

imen

ti O

UT

Exp

ort

+ Im

port

For

eign

Col

lege

Stu

dent

s

Nt m

igra

nts

Em

plo

yees

in h

igh

-tec

h s

ecto

rs

Exp

ort

of h

igh-

tech

goo

ds

Inte

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use

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ICT

Dev

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t

Inde

x

Num

ber

of s

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tific

publ

icat

ions

Une

mpl

oym

ent

rate

Logi

stic

Per

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Ind

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Tot

al f

acto

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Tot

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Law

Inde

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GD

P

Gro

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Inv

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Nat

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and

Cul

tura

l

endo

wm

ent

30 23 60 50 16 32 26 66 61 18 99 33 18 87 77 18 53 67 54 9

Num

ber

of g

radu

ates

Turkey 65

144

1

Turkey 64

GAI provides a reliable Tableau de Bord for the decisionmakers

Turkey45/144

144

1

Endowment

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Globally, Countries manage their image and their positioning in rankings

Country Action

Positioning

Ease of Doing Business 2016 (out of 189)

World CompetitivenessIndex 2016 (out of 140)

Singapore“Mr Ranking” (representative of the Government)

1 (since 10 following years) 2 (since 5 following years)

Filippine Government’s EODB-Task Force103 (+35 positions in thepast 2 years)

47 (+12 positions in the past2 years)

Malaysia Government’s PEMUDAH-Task Force18 (in the top-20 in the past5 years)

18 (in the top-25 in the past5 years)

IndiaMinistry of Trade and Industry Task force

130 (+12 positions in 1 year) 55 (+16 positions in 1 year)

Ireland National Competitiveness Council17 (in the top-20 in the past5 years)

24 (in the top-30 in the past5 years)

Denmark Danish Business Autorithy3 (in the top-5 in the past 5 years)

12 (in the top-12 in the past5 years)

USA Council on Jobs and Competiveness*7 (in the top-7 in the past 10 years)

3 (in the top-5 in the past 5 years)

(*) With private oustanding Institutions (Universities, companies, etc.); Council Chairman is appointed by The President of the USA

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We identified 5 pillars for managing the country image strategically

National divisionto manage

Country-rankings

Improve data quality and availability

Re-design «Country Image»

Abroad IntegratedCommunication

Strategy

Developinternationaladvocacy and sensibilization

activities

1.

2.

3.4.

5.National policy to manage Country-Image

Monitoring Country ranking

Action on critical KPIs defining priorities

Watchdog on data quality

Technical Webinars

Awareness meetings

Vademecum on activated Country reforms

National brand steering committee

Multidisciplinary Task force

International mediacampaigns

Viral social initiatives

Increase country contact points*

Showcase events

(*) Investin”In” website, Embassy as “sales department“, Culture Institutes, etc.

«Truth» campaign on international rankings

Univocal definition of Country’s competitiveness

Measuring of new KPIs, as of today not available

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Next steps: Global Attractiveness Index 2017

UPDATING AND

DEVELOPING GAI INDEX

Ranking GAI 2017 and strategic Tableau de Bord

FOLLOW-UP WITH JOINT

RESEARCH CENTER (JRC)

Drafting of the Statistical Audit Document and integration of the index into the statistical handbook

PROPOSALS FOR IMAGE-COUNTRY MANAGEMENT

AND ATTRACTIVENESS

Meetings with stakeholders and policymakers

CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL

RANKINGS

Extend mapping of country-rankings and update analysis of methodological distortions

BENCHMARK AND INTERNATIONAL CASE

STUDIES

Intelligence about policies and other countries' initiatives concerned the manage of country image

ME

DIA

CO

MM

UN

ICA

TIO

NA

ND

DIS

SE

MIN

AT

ION

6

1 2

3 4 5

GAI’S PRESENTATION AND ACCREDITATION7

Presentation at TEH-A Villa d’Este Forum 2017

Meeting Foreign Ambassadors at the Italian Foreign Ministry

Presentations at international events

Round Table Ambrosetti Club (Rome)

Meetings with European Institutions (European Commission, ECB, etc.)

Meetings with Bilateral Chambers of Commerce

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GAI Report 2016 with its latest updates are freely available at www.ambrosetti.eu/en/global-attractiveness-index

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Lorenzo TavazziHead of Scenario and Intelligence Dapartment, The European House – Ambrosetti

E-mail: [email protected]

Tel.:+39 02 46753 302

Website: www.ambrosetti.eu

Thank you for your attention!

Do not trust the statistics until you have carefully considered what they do not say

William Watt