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Global Carbon Budget 2016

Ocean and land

Emissions

Atmosphere

While atmospheric CO2 moves permanently above 400ppm

Emissions trends vary among countries

Between the Paris agreement and the Marrakesh plan of action, we are here

GtC

O2 p

er y

ear

GtC

O2 p

er y

ear

...only near zero emissions will stop this rise

Atmospheric CO2 levels

have crossed 400 ppm...

Uncertainty rangefor 2015–16

Global emissions from fossil fuels and industry did not grow in 2015 and are projected to rise slightly in 2016. �is is the third year in a row where global emissions are below 1% growth while global GDP exceeds 3% growth

Atmospheric CO2 concentration will continue to rise until CO2 emissions are cut down to near zero

Data: Scripps/NOAA-ESRL

Data: CDIAC/GCP

Data: CDIAC/GCP

After rising >5% per year the previous decade, China’s emissions decreased in 2015 and are projected to decrease again in 2016

TurkeyAustraliaMexico BrazilSouth Korea Saudi Arabia Iran Indonesia

CanadaJapanRussia IndiaEuropean UnionUSAChina South Africa

Produced by the Future Earth Media Lab for the Global Carbon Project. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htmWritten and edited by Corinne Le Quéré (Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia) with the Global Carbon Budget team.Updated from 2015 version. Infographic by Nigel Hawtin. �anks to Glen Peters, Asher Minns, Bob Woolliams for comments. Credits: Le Quéré et al. Earth System Science Data 2016; NOAA-ESRL and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography; CDIAC.NDC projection based on UNFCCC analysis based of Rogelj et al Nature 2016 assuming constant CO2/GHG ratio

�e big El Niño in 2015-2016 led to smaller CO2 uptakeby plants and left much more emissions in the atmosphere than usual

High emissions leadingto dangerous warming

Country pledges (NDCs) for 2030 exceed the warming limit of the Paris Agreement

Baseline

2°C

CO

2 e

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2/y

r)

0.9-2.3°C

3.2–5.4°Crelative to 1850–1900

2016projection

Decreasing emissions compatible with a wellbelow 2°C warming limit

Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014/Rogelj et al 2016

Reduced coal use in China largely accounts for the plateau in emissions

2004-2013 per year

–1.0% to +1.8%

2.4%

1960

315 ppm

2016

January December

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2016

2000 2005 2010 2016

400 ppm

390 ppm

40

35

30

25

2016201020052000

CO

2 e

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2/y

r)

1990 2015

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

1

0

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100−20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Atm

osph

eric

CO

2 at M

auna

Loa

(ppm

)