global carbon budget y el big green push…(selección de...
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GlobalCarbonBudgetyelBigGreenPush…(seleccióndecontenidosde
CEPAL,enero2016)
Publishedon7December2015
Datos2015PowerPointversion1.0(released7December2015)
Globalcarbonbudget
ThecumulaJvecontribuJonstotheglobalcarbonbudgetfrom1870
FigureconceptfromShrinkThatFootprintSource:CDIAC;NOAA-ESRL;Houghtonetal2012;Giglioetal2013;Joosetal2013;KhaJwalaetal2013;
LeQuéréetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015
CumulaJveglobalCO2emissionsandtemperature
CumulaJveglobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuels,industry,andlandusechangeandfoursimplifiedfuturepathwayscomparedtoprobabilityofexceedingdifferenttemperatures(red)
Theredshadedareasarethechanceofexceedingdifferenttemperaturesabovepre-industriallevelsusingthecumulaJveemissionsconceptSource:Jacksonetal2015b;GlobalCarbonBudget2015
Theremainingcarbonquotafor66%chance<2°C
Thetotalremainingemissionsfrom2014tokeepglobalaveragetemperaturebelow2°C(900GtCO2)willbeusedinaround20yearsatcurrentemissionrates
Grey:Totalquotafor2°C.Green:Removedfromquota.Blue:remainingquota.
Withprojected2015emissions,thisremainingquotadropsto865GtCO2Source:Petersetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015
Theemissionpledges(INDCs)ofthetop-4emiiers
TheemissionpledgesfromtheUS,EU,China,andIndialeaveliileroomforothercountriestoemitina2°Cemissionbudget(66%chance)
Source:Petersetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015
Impact/limitsummaryforNegaJveEmissionTechnologies
TheimpactsandinvestmentrequirementsofNegaJveEmissionsTechnologiestolimitwarmingto2°C
Waterrequirementisshownaswaterdroplets,withquanJJesinkm3peryear.Allvaluesarefortheyear2100exceptrelaJvecosts,whicharefor2050
Source:Smithetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015
DifferentNegaJveEmissionTechnologies
SchemaJcrepresentaJonofcarbonflowsamongatmospheric,land,oceanandgeologicalreservoirsfordifferenttechnologies
Source:Smithetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015
GlobalNegaJveEmissionTechnologiescapacity
FactorspotenJallyenhancingorlimiJngtheglobalcapacityforNegaJveEmissionTechnologies
Source:Smithetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015
UKNaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncilNorwegianResearchCouncilUSDepartmentofEnergyAustralianClimateChangeScienceProgramEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme
TheLeverhulmeTrust,UKMinistryofEnvironmentofJapanLSCE,FrancePNB-Paribas
Acknowledgements
TheworkpresentedintheGlobalCarbonBudget2015hasbeenpossiblethankstothecontribuJonsofhundredsofpeopleinvolvedinobservaJonalnetworks,modeling,andsynthesisefforts.NotallofthemareindividuallyacknowledgedinthispresentaJonforreasonsofspace(seeslide2forthoseindividualsdirectlyinvolved).AddiJonalacknowledgementisowedtothoseinsJtuJonsandagenciesthatprovidesupportforindividualsandfundingthatenablethecollaboraJveeffortofbringingallcomponentstogetherinthecarbonbudgeteffort.
WealsothankthesponsorsoftheGCPandGCPsupport/liaisonoffices
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Acknowledgements
TheworkpresentedherehasbeenpossiblethankstotheenormousobservaJonalandmodelingeffortsoftheinsJtuJonsandnetworksbelow
AtmosphericCO2datasetsNOAA/ESRL(Dlugokenckyetal.2015)Scripps(Keelingetal.1976)FossilFuelsandIndustryCDIAC(Bodenetal.2015)USGS,2015UNFCCC,2015BP,2015Consump.onEmissionPetersetal.2011Land-UseChangeHoughtonetal.2012vanderWerfetal.2010
AtmosphericinversionsCarbonTracker(Petersetal.2010)JenaCarboScope(Rödenbecketal.2003)MACC(Chevallieretal.2005)LandmodelsCLM4-5BGC|ISAM|JSBACH|JULES|LPJ-GUESS|LPJ|LPJmL|OCNv1.r240|ORCHIDEE|VEGAS|VISITOceanmodelsNEMO-PlankTOM5|NEMO-PISCES(IPSL)|CCSM-BEC|MICOM-HAMMOC|MPIOM-HAMMOC|NEMO-PISCES(CNRM)|CSIRO|MITgem-REcoM2SOCATSOCATv3(Bakkeretal.2014,2015)OceanDataproductsJenaCarboScope(Rödenbecketal.2014)Landschützeretal.2015
FullreferencesprovidedinLeQuéréetal2015
CLeQuéréUK|RMoriartyUK|RMAndrewNorway|JGCanadellAustralia|SSitchUK|JIKorsbakkenNorway|PFriedlingsteinUK|GPPetersNorway|RJAndresUSA|TABodenUSA|RAHoughtonUSA|JIHouseUK|RFKeelingUSA|PTansUSA|AArnethGermany|DCEBakkerUK|LBarberoUSA|LBoppFrance|JChangFrance|FChevallierFrance|LPChiniUSA|PCiaisFrance|MFaderFrance|RAFeelyUSA|TGkritzalisBelgium|IHarrisUK|JHauckGermany|TIlyinaGermany|AKJainUSA|EKatoJapan|VKi.disUK|KKleinNetherlands|CKovenUSA|PLandschützerSwitzerland|SKLauvsetNorway|NLefèvreFrance|ALentonAustralia|IDLimaUSA|NMetzlFrance|FMilleroUSA|DRMunroUSA|AMurataJapan|JEMSNabelGermany|SNakaokaJapan|YNojiriJapan|KO'BrienUSA|AOlsenNorway|TOnoJapan|FFPérezSpain|BPfeilNorway|DPierrotUSA|BPoulterUSA|GRehderGermany|CRödenbeckGermany|SSaitoJapan|USchusterUK|JSchwingerNorway|RSéférianFrance|TSteinhoffGermany|BDStockerSwitzerland|AJSu*onUSA|TTakahashiUSA|BTilbrookAustralia|ITvanderLaan-LuijkxNetherlands|GRvanderWerfNetherlands|SvanHeuvenNetherlands|DVandemarkUSA|NViovyFrance|AWiltshireUK|SZaehleGermany|NZengUSA|RJacksonUSA|PSmithUK|SJDavisUSA|FCreutzigGermany|SFussGermany|JMinxGermany|BGabrielleFrance|ACowieAustralia|EKrieglerGermany|DPvanVuurenNetherlands|JRogeljSwitzerland&Austria|JMilneUSA|DMcCollumAustria|VKreyAustria|GShresthaUSA|TGasserFrance|AGrüblerAustria|WKHeidugSaudiArabia|MJonasAustria|CDJonesUK|FKraxnerAustria|ELi*letonUK|JLoweUK|JRMoreiraBrazil|NNakicenovicAustria|MObersteinerAustria|APatwardhanUSA|MRognerAustria|ERubinUSA|ASharifiJapan|ATorvangerNorway|YYamagataJapan|JEdmondsUSA|CYongsungSeoul|SSolomanUSA
ScienceCommi*ee|AtlasEngineersatLSCE,France(notalreadymen.onedabove),FrancePPeylin|APeregon|PBrockmann|VMaigné|PEvano
AtlasDesignersWeDoData,France|InfographicdesignersUK,France&SwedenKBas.en|BriceTerdjman|VLeJeune|AVessière|NigelHaw.n|BNPParibasDesignTeam|azote
Communica.onsTeamAMinns|OGaffney|LSayer|LHorton
Contributors106people|68organisaJons|15countries
MoreinformaJon,datasourcesanddatafiles:www.globalcarbonproject.orgContact:[email protected]
MoreinformaJon,datasourcesanddatafiles:www.globalcarbonatlas.org
Contact:[email protected]
Dataaccess
AllthedataisshowninbilliontonnesCO2(GtCO2)
1Gigatonne(Gt)=1billiontonnes=1×1015g=1Petagram(Pg)
1kgcarbon(C)=3.664kgcarbondioxide(CO2)
1GtC=3.664billiontonnesCO2=3.664GtCO2
DisclaimerTheGlobalCarbonBudgetandtheinformaJonpresentedhereareintendedforthoseinterestedin
learningaboutthecarboncycle,andhowhumanacJviJesarechangingit.TheinformaJoncontainedhereinisprovidedasapublicservice,withtheunderstandingthattheGlobalCarbonProjectteammake
nowarranJes,eitherexpressedorimplied,concerningtheaccuracy,completeness,reliability,orsuitabilityoftheinformaJon.