global cement - cembrgroup.com

Global and regional data and insights

Global cement

2020 updates and forecasts summary to 2025

The ultimate “intelligence” provider in the global cement sector

cembrgroup.com

CemBR coverage universe

CemBR Forecasts & The CGC™

The largest 90 cement marketsin the world representingapproximately 95% of globalcement consumption.

Detailed data on:1865 cement producing plants1350 clinker producing plants2,300 individual kilns

* All above plant data is ex-China


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Historical global cement consumption and the impact of China

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Cement consumption in m tonnes

Global ex-China China

2.0%

2.4%2.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Global ex-China China Global total

CAGR 2010-2020

275 504

35%

65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Global ex-China China

2010 – 2020 additional volumes in m tonnes

2010-2020 2010-2020Source:

China had the lion share of the global cement growth in the lastdecade. 65% of volume growth was taken by China. However, theinfluence of China on the global cement sector is currently limiteddue to minimal interaction between China and the rest of theWorld. China’s influence in world cement is more evident in theerection of new cement plants.

China – interaction with the Rest of the World

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

China global interaction - trading as a %ge of total exports

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

China global interaction - clinker trading

China imports China exports

18.6

3.8

11.0

Imported clinker into China in m tonnes - 2020

Vietnam Indonesia Others

20%

4%

0% 0%

13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Indonesia Vietnam Japan SouthKorea

Thailand

%age of capacity in international hands

Cement trading betweenChina and the rest of theWorld has been decliningto meaningless levels.

Clinker imports into Chinahave been increasing inthe last four years, ascoastal Chinese capacityis inadequate.

Five industries accountfor almost the entireclinker imports into China:Indonesia, Japan,Thailand, South Korea,Vietnam.

Presence of majorinternational companiesin these industries islimited.

Source:

Global cement data 2010 – 2020 & 2020 manufacturing data

Cement consumptionCAGR (2010-2020)

Manufacturing data 2020 incl. China

Regional cement capacity & utilisation

Number of cement plants 5,023

Cement capacity (MT) 6,605

Cement capacity growth rate (CAGR 10yr) 3.6%

Cement utilisation rate (%) - Global 60%

Cement utilisation rate (%) - ex-China 57%

Legend

385

5,048

1,248

234515

177 246

65%

61%

57%

62%

51% 50%

54%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

AM

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S

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OC

EA

NIA

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NIA

ex-

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& T

HE

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SU

B-S

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AR

AN

AF

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WE

ST

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N E

UR

OP

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CEMENT MILLING CAPACITY (MT)

CEMENT UTILISATION RATE (%)

Source: NB: Chinese cement capacity and plants is an estimate for 2020 only. No detailed record of cement plants in China

exists in CemBR’s databases.

Global cement data – forecasts to 2025

Cement consumption forecast CAGR (2020A-2025E)

X > 8%

6% < X < 8%

4% < X < 6%

2% < X < 4%

0% < X < 2%

Global ex-China 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

Cement consumption (MT) 1,606 1,549 1,648 1,698 1,744 1,790 1,836

Consumption growth rate (%) 0.2% -3.5% 6.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%

Consumption per capita (KG) 300 286 301 307 313 318 323

Cement supply (MT) 2,758 2,805 2,885 2,924 2,987 3,047 3,060

DCUF™ (%) 58% 55% 57% 58% 58% 59% 60%

Excess supply (MT) 1,151 1,256 1,237 1,226 1,243 1,257 1,224

Source:

NB: DCUF™ stands for Domestic Capacity Utilisation Factor. This is theratio of domestic consumption divided by domestic capacity of cement.In other words, there is no allowance for international trading (importsand exports are excluded). This metric indicates the propensity of amarket to import/export cement. It is expressed in percentage.

Per capita comparisons – 2020

Average global per capita excluding China at around 286 Kg.

Average global per capita including China at around 576 Kg.

Sub Saharan has the lowest and MENA & The Gulf the highest per capita (ex-China)

Source:

0

200

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800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

An

go

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Ug

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Eth

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Ta

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Mo

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Za

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Se

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Cro

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Very low per capita Low per capita Average per capita High per capita Very high percapita

177

265 286 303

403

608

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

SUBSAHARAN

AFRICA

ASIAPACIFIC ex

China

AMERICAS WESTERNEUROPE

EASTEREUROPE

CENTRALASIA

MENA ANDTHE GULF

Average regional per capita in KG - 2020

CemBR Region: Americas

Region 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

Cement consumption (MT) 259 261 278 283 287 291 295

Consumption growth rate (%) 0.6% 0.9% 6.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Consumption per capita (KG) 286 286 302 305 308 310 312

Cement supply (MT) 387 385 392 398 399 402 405

DCUF™ (%) 67% 68% 71% 71% 72% 72% 73%

Excess supply (MT) 128 124 114 114 112 111 109

Sub-region 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

CENTRAL AMERICA DCUF™ (%) 51% 44% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50%

NORTH AMERICA DCUF™ (%) 76% 78% 80% 80% 81% 82% 83%

SOUTH AMERICA DCUF™ (%) 58% 58% 63% 63% 64% 64% 64%

Cement consumption per capita in Kg (2025F)

Canada282

Bolivia311

Argentina251

Brazil313

Chile240

Colombia271

Costa Rica223

Ecuador236

Peru422

Guatemala198

Mexico332

Panama284

USA328

Source:

Sub-regions and countries: North America: Canada, Mexico, USA. Central America: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama. South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru

This is an excerpt from CemBR Forecasts. A 232 page report with all regions and the 60 largest markets in the world.

Regional consumption and supply growth 2020 – 2025

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Consumption growth - 2020 =100

AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC ex China

EASTER EUROPE CENTRAL ASIA MENA AND THE GULF

SUB SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Capacity growth - 2020 =100




Source:

Asia Pacific (ex-China) and Sub Saharan Africa are projected to have the highest consumptiongrowth 2020 – 2025. China’s growth is expected more subdued.

The highest capacity growth is expected in Sub Saharan Africa, whereas Western Europe’s cementsupply is likely to decline (this reflects the already known closures – there may be some moresignificant closures due to EU ETS Phase IV).

Regional consumption and supply growth 2020 – 2025, resultant Utilisation rates (DCUF™)

2.5%

4.6%

2.0%

2.4%

4.3%

1.8%

1.0%

2.5%

0.7%

1.2%

3.4%

-0.4%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC exChina

EASTER EUROPECENTRAL ASIA

MENA AND THEGULF

SUB SAHARANAFRICA

WESTERNEUROPE

Consumption and supply CAGR 2020-2025

Consumption 2020-2025 CAGR Supply 2020-2025 CAGR

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

DCUF™ 2020-2025




Source:

Western Europe is expected to show the strongest growth in DCUF™, with Asia Pacific (ex-China)following closely.

All regions are expected to show an increase in DCUF™, but Sub Saharan Africa exhibits the lowestgrowth due to significant new capacity additions.


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