Global Challenges and Opportunities for a Sustainable Energy Future

Arun Majumdar, ARPA-E

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Production

Consumption

Mill

ion

bar

rels

per

day

USA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

China

Source: Energy Information Administration

Geographical & Resource Constraints for Oil

$1B/day

Consumption

Production

Production

Population Density

Energy Use

Energy use and population do not correlate

Transportation

• Vehicle Efficiency

• Alternative Fuels (Biofuels, Natural Gas)

• Electrification

20 40 60 80 100 112

OPEC Middle East

Other OPEC

Other Conventional Oil

FSU

Venezuela Heavy Oil

Deep Water

Arctic

EOR

Sugarcane EtOH

Oil Sands (Mining)

Oil Sands (In-situ)

GTL

CTL

Corn EtOH

Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day (MBOE/d)

Tota

l Pro

du

ctio

n C

ost

($

/BO

E) 140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Source: Analysis based on information from IEA, DOE and interviews with super-majors

Production Cost, per barrel

Biofuels in a Petroleum Context

Marginal Conventional Oil

Oil Shale

Profit Margin

Batteries for Electrical Energy Storage for Transportation (BEEST)

Electric cars with longer range and lower life-cycle cost than gasoline cars: Subsidy-free business

Chicago

St. Louis

300 miles

Lithium-Oxygen

Metal-Air Magnesium-Ion

Lithium-Sulfur

Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery

All Electron Battery

BEEST Competition

Double the energy density

One third the cost

BEEST Targets

World Record 400 Wh/kg

Natural Gas Transportation LNG for Long-Haul Trucking

CNG for Bus, Car and Short-Haul Truck Fleets

CNG for Passenger Cars: High-Density, Low-Pressure, Low-Cost NG Storage for Home Refilling

Low-Cost NG to Liquid Fuel Chemical Conversion

Stationary Energy Systems

• Supply or Generation (Efficiency, GHG Impact)

• Demand or Use (Efficiency)

• Grid Infrastructure

Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals

42: Average age of a transformer – 2 years more than its lifetime

Aging Grid Infrastructure

Clean and Inexpensive Electricity Scaling without subsidies

Sunshot

2020

15-20¢

4-10¢

NGCC

10-15¢

Clean Coal

6-13¢

Nuclear

10-15¢

Geothermal

5 cents/kWh

5-20¢

Wind

15

SunShot $8.00

$1.70

$0.80

$0.40

$0.50

$1.88

$0.72

$0.76

$0.40

$0.22 $0.12

$0.10

0

2

4

6

8

$1/W

Target

$1/W

Inst

alled

Syst

em

s P

rice (

$/W

)

$3.80/W

Power Electronics

Balance of Systems (BOS)

PV Module

$

WattµManufacturing Cost

Efficiencyh µ JSC ×VOC ×FF

Effi

cie

ncy

Barriers-based investments: Cell and module efficiency

Wafer-Based Si Thin Film

Grid-Scale Storage (GWh level)

MIT-24M Target: $60/kWh

Power Electronics

8000 lbs, 60 Hz Distribution Transformer Silicon Carbide IGBT; 15 kV, 100 A; 50 kHz from Cree Inc. Potentially 100 lbs transformer

Temperature

Scal

e

800-1500 oC

ThermoFuels

Conversion efficiency > 10%

<100 oC

Increase EV range by ~ 40%

Building thermals

High Energy Advanced Thermal Storage (HEATS)

>600 oC

Increase in efficiency > 50% compared to current systems

Grid level storage using heat pumps

Base load Solar and Peaking High-Temp Nuclear

Ravi Prasher (ex-Intel, ASU)

A:B = A + B ΔH, ΔS; T = ΔH/ΔS

Building Energy Efficiency Through Innovative Thermodevices (BEETIT)

Dr. Ravi Prasher (ex-Intel, ASU)

10X away from theoretical limit

ADMA Products, Inc, PNNL, Texas A&M Thermal Diodes High Performance

Thermoelectric Cooler

Sheetak

Buildings Matter

Buildings use 72% of nation’s electricity and 55% of its natural gas.

Buildings construction/renovation contributed 9.5% to US GDP and employs

approximately 8 million people. Buildings’ utility bills totaled $370 Billion in 2005.

Source: Buildings Energy Data Book 2007

By 2030, Business as Usual • 16% growth in electricity

demand • Additional 200 GW of

electricity at cost of $500-1000B, or $25-50B/yr

Buildings Can Provide Grid-Level Storage

Senate Testimony: Google “Majumdar Testimony” http://energy.senate.gov/public/_files/MajumdarTestimony022609.pdf

Gap

• Lack of Measurements & Policies

Requiring it

• Fragmentation of industry & process

Analysis of 121 LEED-Rated Buildings

Low-to-Medium Energy Use Intensity Buildings

Measured to Design Ratio

Towards Zero-Net Energy

M. Frankel, “The Energy Performance of LEED Buildings,”presented at the Summer Study on Energy

Efficient Buildings, American Council of Energy Efficiency Economy, Asilomar Conference Center, Pacific

Grove, CA, August 17-22, 2008.

Building codes are for Design Performance, NOT based on Measured Performance.

First Challenge: Measured Performance

Bad

Good

The Spread EUI in kBTU/sq.ft.-yr

Heating & Cooling in a US campus 2006年度UPENN逐月总冷量和热量

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月

GJ 冷量

热量

Heating and Cooling Load

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

MJ/m2

cooling load

heating load

Heating and Cooling Load

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

MJ/m2

cooling load

heating load

UPenn Campus

Second Challenge: Fragmentation of Industry and Process

Courtesy: World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) Report on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, July 2008

Need to:

• Integrate process & communities

• Integrate building system

• Align incentives

Policy Innovation:

National Standards Based on Measured Energy and Indoor Environmental Quality Performance

26

• Interior volume refrigerator increased by 22%.

• Total cost of ownership decreased 3x.

• Energy use decreased more than 4x.

Current Learning Curve (Assured Path)

Scale in Size or Volume

Cost ($)/Performance

Deployment

Appliance Standards, CAFE, Clean Energy Standards (80% clean energy by 2035) to Create Demand Pull

R&D for Breakthrough Technologies to Create New Learning Curves

US Markets Businesses Consumers US Gov’t

Global Markets

Manufacturing/Scaling Innovations

Technology Innovations

R&D from DOE Applied Energy Programs DOE

>$1-10B <$10M (2-5 yrs)

$10-100M (5-10 yrs)

$100M-1B (>10 yrs)

Low-Cost Long-Term Capital (>20 years)

Project Size & Time

DOE RD&D

Private Sector