global climate change impacts: implications for climate … slides/karl.pdf · 2009. 12. 7. ·...

Global Climate Change Impacts:Global Climate Change Impacts:Implications for Climate Engineering Implications for Climate Engineering

Thomas R. KarlLead, NOAA climate services

Director, NOAA National Climatic Data Center

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United StatesOctober 29, 2009

2Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 2

Response Strategies to Climate Response Strategies to Climate ChangeChange

““MitigationMitigation”” –– reducing the amount of reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by climate change, for example, by reducing emissions or increasing their reducing emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere removal from the atmosphere (including climate engineering)(including climate engineering)

““AdaptationAdaptation”” –– improving ourimproving our ability to cope with or avoid harmful ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage ofimpacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditionsnewly favorable conditions

Both will be needed.Both will be needed.

Future climate change and its impacts Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made todaydepend on choices made today


The The ““state of knowledgestate of knowledge”” report summarizes the report summarizes the science and impacts of science and impacts of climate change in the U.S.climate change in the U.S.

Plain language, authoritativePlain language, authoritative

US Global Change Research Program US Global Change Research Program report, led by NOAAreport, led by NOAA

Extensive review: public reviews (2), blue Extensive review: public reviews (2), blue ribbon expert review, federal agency ribbon expert review, federal agency (GCRP) review(GCRP) review

Draws from all previous assessments, Draws from all previous assessments, global and national (IPCC, CCSP etc)global and national (IPCC, CCSP etc)

Author team was a 31Author team was a 31--member FACA member FACA body and included federal, academic and body and included federal, academic and private sector expertsprivate sector experts

globalchange.gov/usimpactsglobalchange.gov/usimpacts


Report released in June in a Report released in June in a White House press briefingWhite House press briefingThe report breaks down climate change impacts on the U.S. into:

•• Global SectionGlobal Section•• National OverviewNational Overview•• 9 regions:9 regions:

• Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska, Islands, coasts

•• 7 sectors: 7 sectors:

•• Concludes with Concludes with ““An Agenda for ScienceAn Agenda for Science””


•• Climate changes are happening now and are Climate changes are happening now and are likely to grow in the coming decades. likely to grow in the coming decades.

•• Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at ‘‘lowlow’’ scenarios (550ppm), impacts will be widespread and significant.scenarios (550ppm), impacts will be widespread and significant.

•• Many impacts will not be avoided.Many impacts will not be avoided.

•• Increased motivation for climate engineering?Increased motivation for climate engineering?

•• BUT Research into effectiveness and appropriateness of BUT Research into effectiveness and appropriateness of climate engineering climate engineering –– barely begunbarely begun

•• Unintended regional consequences possibleUnintended regional consequences possible

•• Lowering global average temperature Lowering global average temperature

≠≠

limiting regional impactslimiting regional impacts

Implications of this report for Implications of this report for climate engineering:climate engineering:


For example: teleconnections with shortFor example: teleconnections with short--lived lived radiatively active gasesradiatively active gases

Surface Temperature change from ~2010 to Surface Temperature change from ~2010 to 2100 in GISS GFDL model2100 in GISS GFDL model

Forcing is mostly in SE Forcing is mostly in SE AsiaAsia

Response in summer is Response in summer is strongest in N. American strongest in N. American continental interiorcontinental interior

Just discovering these Just discovering these possible teleconnections/ possible teleconnections/ impactsimpacts

MUCH uncertainty in MUCH uncertainty in scenarios and responsesscenarios and responses


Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human inducedhuman induced

Global Temperature and COGlobal Temperature and CO22

Separating Human and Natural Separating Human and Natural Influences on ClimateInfluences on Climate

Human fingerprints have been identified Human fingerprints have been identified

in many aspects of climate changein many aspects of climate change

•• TemperatureTemperature•• PrecipitationPrecipitation•• Ocean heat contentOcean heat content•• Atmospheric moistureAtmospheric moisture•• Arctic sea iceArctic sea ice


Moving Outside the Range of Historical VariationMoving Outside the Range of Historical Variation

800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide Concentration800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide Concentration

Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily humanhuman--inducedinduced



About 1/3 of the

CO2

from fossil fuel

burning remains

in the atmosphere

after 100 years

About 1/5 of it

remains after

1000 years

The U.S. is

responsible for

about 28% of

human‐induced

heat‐trapping

gases in the

atmosphere today



Temperature

Heaviest 5%of precip


1.Global Warming is unequivocal and 1.Global Warming is unequivocal and primarily human inducedprimarily human induced

2. Climate Changes are underway in 2. Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to growthe U.S. and are projected to grow

3. Widespread climate3. Widespread climate--related related impacts are occurring now and are impacts are occurring now and are expected to increaseexpected to increase

4. Climate Change will stress water 4. Climate Change will stress water resourcesresources

5. Crop and livestock production will 5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challengedbe increasingly challenged

Key FindingsKey Findings

Projected Changes in Annual Runoff

Change in Population from 1970 to 2008


6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise 6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise and storm surge and storm surge

7. Risks to human health will increase7. Risks to human health will increase

8. Climate change will interact 8. Climate change will interact with many social and with many social and environmental stressesenvironmental stresses

9. Thresholds will be crossed 9. Thresholds will be crossed leading to large changes leading to large changes in climate and ecosystemsin climate and ecosystems

10.Future climate and its 10.Future climate and its impacts depends on impacts depends on choices made todaychoices made today

Key FindingsKey Findings

Pollen Counts Rise with Increasing Carbon Dioxide


Temperature riseTemperature riseSeaSea--level riselevel riseIncrease in heavy downpoursIncrease in heavy downpoursRapidly retreating glaciersRapidly retreating glaciersThawing permafrostThawing permafrostLonger growingLonger growing seasonseasonLonger iceLonger ice--free seasonfree season in the ocean and on lakesin the ocean and on lakes and riversand riversEarlier snowmeltEarlier snowmeltChanges in river flowsChanges in river flows

Observed U.S. SeaObserved U.S. Sea--Level ChangesLevel Changes

Climate changes Climate changes are underway are underway in the U.S. in the U.S. (and globally) and are projected to grow(and globally) and are projected to grow


Number of Number of Days Over 100Days Over 100ººFF

Recent Past, 1961Recent Past, 1961--19791979

Climate changes are underway in the U.S. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to growand are projected to grow




Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080--20992099




Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080--20992099


Projected Change in Precipitation IntensityProjected Change in Precipitation Intensity (2080(2080--2099)2099)

Observed Increases in Observed Increases in Very Heavy PrecipitationVery Heavy Precipitation

(1958 to 2007(1958 to 2007)



Coastal areas are at increasing risk from Coastal areas are at increasing risk from seasea--level rise and storm surgelevel rise and storm surge

Sea-level riseStorm surgeErosionFlooding

Projected SeaProjected Sea--Level RiseLevel Rise


Ocean AcidificationOcean Acidificationcoral calcification may decline 30% under CO2 doubling


Tipping points will be reached, leading to Tipping points will be reached, leading to unpredictable changesunpredictable changes

Arctic Sea Ice Arctic Sea Ice Annual MinimumAnnual MinimumIceIce--albedo feedback initiated albedo feedback initiated -- tipping point reached?tipping point reached?

Many possible thresholds exist in Many possible thresholds exist in the physical climate system and in the physical climate system and in ecological and social systemsecological and social systems


ConclusionsConclusions

As impacts rapidly increase, the pressure to implement a climate engineering ‘solution’ is also likely to increase

BUT the complexities of understanding unintended consequences are enormous. This includes understanding the physical, ecosystem, and socio- economic impacts.


Thank you.Thank you.

Questions?Questions?

www.globalchange.gov/usimpactswww.globalchange.gov/usimpacts


Implications not only for ecosystems but for sequestration optionsNon-insect- related forest die- off also been observed –water limitations (4.2)

Spruce Bark Beetle in AKSpruce Bark Beetle in AK

Tipping points will be reached, leading to Tipping points will be reached, leading to unpredictable changesunpredictable changes


Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to growand are projected to grow

NearNear--term projected average term projected average temperature rise in the U.S.temperature rise in the U.S.


Climate Change will interact with many Climate Change will interact with many other social and environmental stressesother social and environmental stresses

Projected water conflicts by 2025Projected water conflicts by 2025

WITHOUT considering climate WITHOUT considering climate change, projections of water change, projections of water conflict increase by 2025conflict increase by 2025

In regions where water In regions where water availability will decrease (as a availability will decrease (as a result of climate change), water result of climate change), water could be a major source of could be a major source of conflictconflict

Many parts of the world in Many parts of the world in much worse situationsmuch worse situations

global climate change impacts: implications for climate … slides/karl.pdf · 2009. 12. 7. ·...

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