global climate change: past and future le moyne college syracuse, new york february 3, 2006...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Global Climate Change: Past and Future Le Moyne College Syracuse, New York February 3, 2006 Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bfe11a28abf838cb4110/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Global Climate Change: Past and Future
Le Moyne CollegeSyracuse, New York
February 3, 2006
Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (ESSI)
Penn State University
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`The balance of evidence suggests that there is a
discernible human influence on global climate '
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Second Assessment Report, 1996
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`There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable to human activity'
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Third Assessment Report, 2001
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THE DATA
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Climatic Research Unit (‘CRU’), University of East Anglia
Surface Temperature Changes
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Greenhouse Gases and WarmingCO2
Related?
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TREE RINGS
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CORALS
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ICE CORES
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VARVED LAKE SEDIMENTS
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HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS
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RECONSTRUCTED GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERNS
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Reconstructed Surface Temperatures
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T.,
et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001
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Reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures
for the last 1000 years and instrumental record (black line)
From “Wikipedia”
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CLIMATE MODELS
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The climate represents a coupled system consisting of an atmosphere, hydrosphere,
biosphere, and cryosphere
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General Circulation Models take into
account the full three-dimensional structure of
the atmosphere and ocean
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This alone doesn’t guarantee that they should do a good job in describing climate change!
GCMs do a fairly good job of
describing the seasonal cycle in
surface temperature
January Temp (observations)
January Temp (model)
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Modeled Internal Natural Variability Observations
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INFLUENCE OF EXTERNAL FACTORS
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The climate is governed by external factors, including the intensity of solar output and volcanic aerosols
and greenhouse gas concentrations
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Solar Variations
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The climate is governed by external factors, including the intensity of solar output and volcanic aerosols
and greenhouse gas concentrations
![Page 24: Global Climate Change: Past and Future Le Moyne College Syracuse, New York February 3, 2006 Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bfe11a28abf838cb4110/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Volcanoes
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The climate is governed by external factors, including the intensity of solar output and volcanic aerosols
and greenhouse gas concentrations
![Page 26: Global Climate Change: Past and Future Le Moyne College Syracuse, New York February 3, 2006 Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bfe11a28abf838cb4110/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The climate is governed by external factors, including the intensity of solar output and volcanic aerosols
and greenhouse gas concentrations
![Page 27: Global Climate Change: Past and Future Le Moyne College Syracuse, New York February 3, 2006 Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bfe11a28abf838cb4110/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
GREENHOUSE EFFECT?
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ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT?
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SIMULATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures
Climate Change 2001: The
Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et
al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ.
Press, Cambridge, 2001
Forced Model simulations
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Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures
Climate Change 2001: The
Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et
al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ.
Press, Cambridge, 2001
Forced Model simulations
![Page 33: Global Climate Change: Past and Future Le Moyne College Syracuse, New York February 3, 2006 Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bfe11a28abf838cb4110/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures
Climate Change 2001: The
Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et
al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ.
Press, Cambridge, 2001
Forced Model simulations
![Page 34: Global Climate Change: Past and Future Le Moyne College Syracuse, New York February 3, 2006 Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bfe11a28abf838cb4110/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ.
Press, Cambridge, 2001
Future Surface Temperatures Trends?
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Possible Impacts:
North American Drought
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1998 Global Temperature Pattern
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El Nino and North American Drought
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El Nino vs. North American Drought over the Past Century
Increased Drought La Nina
El NinoLess Drought
Courtesy of E.Cook
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Katrina
(Aug 28 ’05)
Destructive Potential of
Atlantic Hurricanes
Possible Impacts:
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Rita
(Sep 21 ’05)
Destructive Potential of
Atlantic Hurricanes
Possible Impacts:
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Wilma
(Oct 19 ’05)
Destructive Potential of
Atlantic Hurricanes
Possible Impacts:
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Hurricane Statistics
P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science, 309, Issue 5742, 1844-1846 , 2005.
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Climate Model Predictions
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, Science, Vol 309, Issue 5742, 1844-1846 , 16 September 2005.
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Climatological Surface Temperatures January
[source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center][source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
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Surface Temperature Pattern January ’06
[source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
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Surface Temperature Anomaly Pattern January ’06
[source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
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Temperature Anomaly Pattern (January ’06)
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ.
Press, Cambridge, 2001
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CONCLUSIONS
•Recent global surface temperatures are unprecedented this century, and likely at least the past millennium
•It is difficult to explain the recent surface warming in terms of natural climate variability
•Recent surface warming is largely consistent with simulations of the effects of anthropogenic influence on climate
•Possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change this century include increased drought conditions in the western U.S. and more destructive Atlantic tropical storms and Hurricanes