global climate cycles, global warming and anthropogenic greenhouse effect
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Global Climate Cycles,Global Warming
and Anthropogenic Greenhouse
Effect
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Important considerations regarding global warming and the
anthropogenic greenhouse effect
• Cyclical Processes – The earths environmental conditions have been evolving through geologic time. They tend to be cyclical over both long and short periods of time and have changed character greatly and abruptly.
• Chaos is an operating factor
• Positive Feedback vs Negative Feedback
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Brief History of Earth
• 4.5 b.y. ago earth formed from a cloud of dust and gas that circled proto-sun as a disc.
• Luminosity of sun was about 30% less than present in early history, yet earth was as warm then as now.
• Atmosphere had high content of CO2
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RRed Giant
WWhite DwarfBBlack Dwarf
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• There have been multiple periods of major continental glaciation.
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Continental Glaciation
Approx. Time of Glaciation Duration
2300 m.y. 200 m.y.900 m.y. 50 m.y.750 m.y. 50 m.y.600 m.y 20 m.y.450 m.y. 25 m.y.300 m.y. 50 m.y.now about 10 m.y.so far
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• Continental Glaciation in North America and Europe began about 1.6 m.y. ago (Pleistocene or ice ages).
• Glacial and interglacial periods cycle with a period of about 100,000 years.
• Interglacial periods are about 10,000 years in duration
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• First modern humans appeared about 200,000 years ago.
• Peak of last glaciation occurred about 20,000 years ago.
• Sea level was 400 feet lower
• Long Island was not an Island then
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Shoreline
18,000 b.p
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• Interglacial period began about 10,000 years ago.
• We are presently in an interglacial period.
• Agriculture started about 10,000 years ago.
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• Past is key to the future
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What will Long Island or the earth be like in:
• 12 hours?
• 6 months?
• 100 years?
• 50,000 years?
• 2 b.y.?
• 5 b.y.?
• 7 b.y.?
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What Controls Earth’s Surface Temperature?
•
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10,000o F
60o F0o F if no Greenhouse Effect
www.ultranet.com/~jkimball/BiologyPages/ C/CarbonCycle.html
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Real-time measurements and historical records of climate
(back to 1800’s; some earlier)
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ToC
SGlobal Surface temperature
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GGlobal Surface TemperatureScientific American, March 2005 p. 35
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CClimate Northern HemisphereMoberg et al, 2005 Nature v 433, p. 613-617
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Record from position of glaciers
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Rhone Glacier (Present)
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Rhone Glacier (Present)
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Lithograph from 1850’s
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Climate Northern HemisphereMoberg et al, 2005 Nature v 433, p. 613-617
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20,000-40,000 year cycles
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100,000 year cycles
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GGreenhouse Gases
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Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases
• Carbon Dioxide 60%• Burning of Fossil Fuels• Deforestation• Methane 15%• Coal Mines• Termites• Wetlands (beavers)• Rice Patties• Cattle• Subpolar Soil and Wetlands• Methane hydrate
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Methane Hydrate
• Immense Carbon reservoir
• Twice as large as all known fossil fuels
• Methane is 10 times more effective a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide
• Occurs on sea floor at depths greater than about 2,000 feet
• In polar sediments
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Global Carbon Budget
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Methane Hydrate
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Locations where methane hydratehas been discovered
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•Mean global temperature has increased since mid-1800’s
•Has CO2 ?
•Can we see correlations earlier? Glacier Ice.
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Projected Changes in Global Climate (Short-term)
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Ruddiman, 2005, Sci Am. March
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Ruddiman, 2005, Sci Am. March
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Ruddiman, 2005, Sci Am. March
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Consequences of Greenhouse Warming
• Increase in warming
• least in tropics
• greatest toward poles.
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Consequences of Greenhouse Warming• Wandering weather patterns
• Increased precipitation
• Less rain in summer in U.S. midwest
• Intensity and numbers of storms will increase
• Ocean currents may be modified
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Consequences of Greenhouse Warming
• Expansion of Oceans on heating
• Melting of glaciers
• Sea level rise of 1 to 3 feet by 2100
• More severe storms
• Result will be coastal flooding
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Consequences of Greenhouse Warming
• Natural Habitats will be destroyed– Forests dying– Wild animals unable to migrate
development isolation
• Areas with tropical diseases expand
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• Agriculture may be helped or hurt depending on area and ability of farmers to react fast enough
• Water for irrigation and human use may be inadequate for populations in drier areas
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General Strategies
Waiting strategy
Compromise
• increased energy conservation
• more reliance on renewable energy
• reduce deforestation