Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) Barry Goodison 1 and Jeff Key 2 1 Vice-Chair, GCW Steering Group (WMO, retired) 2 GCW Senior Scientist (US NOAA/NESDIS) On behalf of GCW Steering Group Scoping Workshop on Climate Services for Polar Regions: Establishing Polar regional Climate Centres Towards Implementing an Arctic PRCC-Network Geneva, Switzerland, Nov 17-19, 2015 WMO OMM Purpose of RCCs Development and delivery of effective climate services for the benefit of all WMO Members requires: Regional cooperation for capacity-building and infrastructure development; Operational implementation of the progress made in WMOs climate monitoring, prediction and research initiatives; A regional mechanism for interpretation and interface to NMHSs of global climate information WMO OMM Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCCs are Centres of Excellence, designated through a CBS-CCl process, to perform regional-scale climate functions, including: Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the region Data services Climate Applications Training and capacity building Research and Development RCCs are complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, who will deliver all Warnings and national-scale products Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs and priorities WMO OMM Minimum Functions for RCC Designation (1/2) Operational Activities for LRF*: Interpret and assess relevant LRF products from GPCs, distribute relevant information to RCC Users; and provide feedback to GPCs Generate regional and sub-regional tailored products, relevant to RCC User needs, including seasonal outlooks etc.; Perform verification of RCC quantitative LRF products, including the necessary exchange of basic forecasts and hindcast data; Generate consensus statement on regional or sub-regional forecasts; Provide on-line access to RCC products/services to RCC Users; Assess use of RCC products and services through feedback from RCC Users. * Both dynamical and statistical, within the range of 1 month to 2 year timescale, based on regional needs WMO OMM Minimum Functions for RCC Designation (2/2) Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring: Perform climate diagnostics including analysis of climate variability and extremes, at regional and sub-regional scales; Establish an historical reference climatology for the region and/or sub- regions; Implement a regional Climate Watch. Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring: Develop regional climate datasets, gridded where applicable; Provide climate database and archiving services, at the request of NMHSs; Training in the use of operational RCC products and services Provide information on methodologies and product specifications for mandatory RCC products, and provide guidance on their use Coordinate training for RCC Users in interpretation and use of mandatory RCC products. WMO OMM RCC Highly Recommended Functions Climate prediction and projection Use of model simulations, downscaling of scenarios, adaptation strategies, verification Non-operational data services WIS; DARE; metadata; assist Members in archiving, datasets, QM, QA/QC; homogenization; DBM; Coordination functions Collaboration; assist members with user liaison, media, public awareness strategies Training and capacity building Promote technical, assist in professional, capacity building Research and development CV and CC, regional models, proxy data, economic value of climate information WMO OMM WMO RCC Status Worldwide Designated RCC-Networks RCC-Networks in Demo Phase BCC TCC NEACC ICPAC ACMAD CIIFEN RCCs in Demonstration Phase RCCs Proposed RCC-Networks Proposed SADC-CSC Designated RCCs WMO OMM WMO Overview of the survey of Members needs and capacities for Polar RCC services: Purpose and design of the survey To get an overview of general requirements, interest and capacities of Members relevant to the implementation of PRCCs Survey addresses mandatory and highly-recommended functions of WMO RCCs following a template developed for the initiation of WMO RCC implementation (adjusted and discussed with the EC-POHRS Services Task Team) Survey does not provide much flexibility for communicating details The survey prepares the ground for more specific discussions and negotiations around PRCC implementation WMO OMM WMO Key outcome (focus: mandatory functions) More than three-quarters of the responding countries indicate their interest in contributing to the listed functions within the framework of a PRCC More than two-thirds of the responding countries indicate that they require a PRCC to perform or coordinate the listed functions More than two-thirds of the responding countries indicate that they provide services or carry out research to enable services adressing the listed functions for Polar regions Weather Climate Water10 Major needs 1.Tailored climate information products and advisory services (detailed and skilful forecasts + climate change projections + better prediction of extremes); 2.Capacity development of professionals and communities on production and effective application of climate services; 3.Improved, standardized, and quality controlled sector monitoring data that is compatible with environmental and climate information; 4.Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and cost-effective use of climate information for sector decisions; 5.Research and prediction of sector impacts associated with climate variability and climate change; 6.Development and deployment of early warning systems appropriate to the sector and user communities; 7.Sustainable financial and technical support; 8.Better collaboration with the climate community for interdisciplinary policy, practice and research. GCW - Relevance to PRCC GCW will ensure a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observations and information to allow for a more complete understanding of the cryosphere (past, present and future) and to contribute to the improved observations, research and services that are essential to fully assess, predict, and adapt to the variability and change now witnessed in the Arctic Cryosphere is a defining characteristic of polar and high mountain regions GCW addresses GCOS ECVs (more than T&P) GCW and PRCC both have operational mandates GCW Activities Relevant to PRCC (what is GCW doing, or whats happening that wouldnt otherwise happen) developing a network of surface observations, with "CryoNet at the core, which builds on existing networks; establishing measurement guidelines and best practices; refining observational requirements for the WMO RRR; engaging in and supporting intercomparisons of instruments and products, e.g., the GCW Snow Watch project; enhanced near real-time snow depth observation on the GTS/WIS and reporting of zero snow depth (with modelling centres and CBS); contributing to WMOs space-based capabilities database (with PSTG); evaluation/intercomparison of satellite snow products initiated with ESA (SnowPEX); 12 GCW Activities Relevant to PRCC2 producing unique hemispheric products, e.g., snow anomaly trackers for SCE and SWE in collaboration with partners; engaging in historical data rescue (e.g., snow depth); building a glossary of cryospheric terms; developing international training, outreach materials; co-sponsoring workshops providing up-to-date information on the state of the cryosphere; providing access to data and metadata through a portal; Moving Forward The following are some suggestions for discussion which are important for GCW and for Arctic PRCC-network designation: Defining the highly recommended functions in addition to mandatory functions for an Arctic PRCC Determining elements to be produced (T&P is not enough); identifying cryospheric elements to be included; role for satellite or merged/blended products Defining the spatial domain of an Arctic PRCC hemispheric? pan-Arctic (how far south?), RA II, IV, VI could subdivide? Evaluation/validation in data sparse regions. Defining suitable temporal scale especially for climate monitoring (minimum update frequency is monthly strive for weekly, daily as well?) Data policy; access to data; timely exchange of data observed to meet user needs (forecasting, monitoring, data services); interoperability among data centres; role of GCW data portal/DCPC Determining user needs beyond NMSs (NMHSs?), e.g. those of Indigenous Peoples Engaging organizations outside WMO in developing Arctic-PRCC Identifying key gaps that would hinder development of operational LRF products, climate monitoring and data services of an Arctic PRCC (incl. review of outcomes of relevant workshops, conferences, meetings) Arctic PRRC Service and Service Delivery Vasily Smolyanitsky (RU), Hilppa Gregow (FI) Marina Livezey (US), Richard Thoman (US), Wanqiu Wang (US) Chantale Cote (CA), Lena Lindstrom (SE) Ernesto Rodrigez (ES) Chenghu Sun (CN) (DK) Partnership WMO-IOC RCCs TCs, Programs, RAs WMO-IOC Marine Climate Data System (CMOC) GCW, GAW AC International Ice Charting Working Group NSIDC Arctic ROOS EUMETSAT COPERNICUS MyOCEAN Arctic PRRC Geographic Domain Defined by elements Identified by AC Permafrost / glaciers/ sea ice extent Indigenous People Parameters of interest Cryosphere Sea and Freshwater Ice Snow Cover Glaciers, Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets Permafrost Atmosphere SLP, Ta, precipitation Storminess, winds, atmospheric circulation patterns Polar oceanography Water temperature, Salinity Sea level Waves River runoffs Land issues Coastal and river erosion Fresh water runoffs Arctic PRCC Mandatory Functions operational activities for long range forecasts (LRF); Synthesized regional perspectives Validation of model guidance Interpretation and guidance to users operational activities for climate monitoring; operational data services to support LRF and climate monitoring; and training in the use of operational RCC products and services. Arctic PRCC Highly Recommended Functions climate prediction and climate projection; non-operational data services; centralized coordination functions; training and capacity development; and research and development WMO Potential Mapping of national capabilities for Arctic Regional Climate Centre-Network (!DRAFT TO BE COMPLETED!) Secretariat WMO RCC mandatory functions high-level overview FunctionCountry Remarks LRF Russian Federation Denmark/Greenland Nordic countries Canada USA Clarify areal coverage of products/services! Indicate parameters Monitoring Russian Federation Denmark/Greenland Nordic countries Canada USA Clarify areal coverage of products/services! Indicate parameters ?Integrated historical reference climatology? ?Integrated Climate Watch system implementation? Data Russian Federation? Denmark/Greenland Nordic countries Canada USA Clarify areal coverage of products/services! Indicate parameters Training Nordic countries Canada USA Clarify areal coverage of activities! Indicate thematic topics Canada: Polar Knowledge Canada WMO Indicated capabilities beyond RCC mandatory functions Russian Federation Monitoring of marine environment, sea ice climatology and monitoring, ?Iceberg services? Denmark/ Greenland Polar Portal, glacier and ice sheet monitoring, sea ice monitoring, climate projections, sea surface and ice surface temperatures, station-based time-series data; growing season, permafrost, ecosystem monitoring Nordic countries Climate projections, data rescue, greenhouse gas monitoring Canada Sea ice/Ice services (ice strength, ice pressure), Research activities on Climate Change (ArcticNet) USA Sea ice/Ice services, climate projection, Climate variability and change, Impact analysis WMO Next steps 1.Seek formal endorsement of the implementation approach from RAs II, IV and VI as well as EC-PHORS; 2.Follow a well-planned timeline towards an implementation plan. 3.?Seek formal expression of intent (of countries within the Arctic Polar Region?) to contribute to an Arctic-RCC-Network (gives also mandate to national experts to discuss technical implementation)? 4.Specify products/services for Arctic-RCC-Network (cf. RA VI RCC-Network Implementation Plan) both mandatory and highly-recommended 5.Focal Point, Product/Service, Producer, Areal coverage, time of issuance, URL/access point, Remarks 6.Methodology, spatial resolution, temporal resolution, Quality indicators/Validation, References 7.Draft an Arctic-RCC-Network Implementation Plan (who leads?) (including identifying Node leads and consortia, Arctic-RCC-Network WebPortal, open vs restricted product access etc) 8.Seek commitment of contributing countries and start demonstration (follow WMO RCC Designation Process) Towards an Implementation Plan Write up a Concept Note on PRCC implementation including: Governance (part of it will be informed by the descriptions of the core functions) Available WMO products and how to manage them in a cost- effective manner in the PRCC context Include products important for the stakeholders, but beyond the defined RCC products A range of options for implementation Capacities/capabilities Other partners to be brought in Outreach/communication to gauge the level of interest in the PRCC Capture the issues and outcomes of the PRCC Scoping Workshop test footer 25 WMO Immediate steps 1.Seek GPC inputs for PRCC operations in the LRF function (including through engagement with PTCs/PRAs) starting with PTC/PRA meeting in January Provide national contributions (those represented in EC-PHORS) to the Secretariat, Specifying products/services for Arctic-RCC-Network, as well as areal coverage, temporal scale, their specific contributions and capabilities, and commitments in concrete terms; also other potential contributors (by mid February 2016) Formal letter from WMO needed with a template 3.Secretariat to consolidate these inputs and elaborate the first draft of the Concept Paper, based on the national contributions (by mid March 2016) 4.Share the initial draft with EC-PHORS members, workshop participants and other interested PRs,, including perspectives of potential non-NMHS contributors with help from EC-PHORS (mid May 2016) 5.Engage with the EC-PHORS STT to elaborate the draft Concept Paper 6.Introduce the Concept Paper at the WMO Executive Council and seek guidance (June, 2016) 7.Develop an Arctic-RCC-Network Implementation Plan with contributions from experts (by September 2016) 8.Seek commitment of contributing countries and start a demonstration (follow WMO RCC Designation Process) (early 2017) GCW Contribution how, what, why, when, where?