global dairy market report 2010

The Egyptian Center for Studies of Export & Import و ا��اد �� ا ��آ� ا ��ى �را��ت ا

www.ecsei.com www.ecsei-eg.com Email: [email protected] [email protected]

"Analysis report of the markets' crises"

The Egyptian Center for Studies of Export & Import Legal & Economic Consultations

General Manager Medhat Saad Eldin Legal Consultations

www.ecsei.com www.ecsei-eg.com … December 2009

The Egyptian Center for Studies of Export & Import

www.ecsei.com www.ecse

Our Summary Report's Notes:

Abbreviations and Explanatory Notes World Food Situation

• Critical sector

• First forecasts International Dairy Trade

• The major dairy products traded internationally can be broadly placed in four

• The biggest players in international dairy trade.

• Multinational firms• Multinational dairy companies

The Changing Face of Dairy Products Dairy Products.

• Raw milk • Major exporters of dairy products

Domestic Dairy Policies in Key Global Markets• The Interface between Domestic Dairy Policies and Dairy Trade• The top five countries or areas of the world for production• The European Union• Canada • Japan • United States

Dairy-Trading Nations with Little Domestic Support• Australia and New Zealand• Brazil and

Dairy Markets Review Outlook for the short to medium term

• The European Union• The United States• Australia • New Zealand• South America• Brazil • Argentina • China • India • Russia

International dairy trade International Dairy Markets

Tables:

Cows milk for selected countries

Cheese production for selected countries

Butter production for selected countries

Notes: this is summary General Manager

Medhat Saad Eldin

Legal consultations

The Global "Analysis r


sei-eg.com Email: [email protected]

Our Summary Report's Notes:

Abbreviations and Explanatory Notes

World Food Situation

Critical sector

First forecasts International Dairy Trade

The major dairy products traded internationally can be broadly placed in four categories. The biggest players in international dairy trade.

Multinational firms. Multinational dairy companies

The Changing Face of Dairy Products.

Major exporters of dairy products

Domestic Dairy Policies in Key Global Markets

Interface between Domestic Dairy Policies and Dairy TradeThe top five countries or areas of the world for production

European Union

United States Trading Nations with Little Domestic Support

Australia and New Zealand Brazil and Argentina

Dairy Markets Review - Overview of current market situation

Outlook for the short to medium term:

European Union United States

New Zealand South America

l dairy trade 2008

International Dairy Markets Outlook

Cows milk for selected countries 1,000 metric tons.

Cheese production for selected countries 1/1,000 metric tons

Butter production for selected countries 3/1,000 metric tons

Notes: this is summary Report for full report contacts us.

The Global Dairy Products Industry 2010"Analysis report of the market's crises"

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com [email protected]

The major dairy products traded internationally can be broadly

Interface between Domestic Dairy Policies and Dairy Trade The top five countries or areas of the world for production:

Overview of current market situation

metric tons.

metric tons.

us.

2010




Acidity test

Milk quality tests that measures lactic acid Adulteration

Addition of other substances to milk reduces the quality of the milk (e.g. water) Alcohol test

Milk quality test. Artificial insemination

Animal breeding method. Association

Association consisting of and governed by representatives of milk producer

Groups. A recombined milk product

Is a product resulting from the combining of milk fat and milk-solids-nonpreserved forms with or without the addition of water to achieve the appropriate milk product composition. Artisan

Artisan cheeses are small volume cheeses, often produced with the milk of one herd, using traditional methods of production Affineur

The person who ages and ripens cheese.Sometimes cheeses are produced by a farmer and then sent to the affineur in order to age the cheeses. The affineur’s skiloften equal to the cheese maker's.select the temperature and humidity, wash the cheese for washed rind cheeses or whatever is needed to release the best qualities in each batch of cheese. Babcock test

Traditional method of measuring the butterfat content of milk, which may be used for calibrating modern electronic testing devices.

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that measures lactic acid.

of other substances to milk which reduces the quality of the milk (e.g. water).

.

consisting of and governed by representatives of milk producer

oduct

a product resulting from the combining of non-fat in their

preserved forms with or without the addition of water to achieve the appropriate milk

Artisan cheeses are small volume cheeses, often produced with the milk of one

using traditional methods of production

The person who ages and ripens cheese. Sometimes cheeses are produced by a farmer and then sent to the affineur in order

The affineur’s skill is often equal to the cheese maker's. They select the temperature and humidity, wash the cheese for washed rind cheeses or whatever is needed to release the best qualities in each batch of cheese.

method of measuring the rfat content of milk, which may be used

for calibrating modern electronic testing

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Bacteria

Single-celled organisms living either independently or in close association with other living organisms; often referred to as microbes or micro organisms because of their microscopic size. Some bacteria are beneficial, but others cause infectious disease

Breeding services

Upgrading of animals through introduction of improved genes Cheese

Milk product. Churning

Agitation of whole milk or creambutter adding starters and rennet Clot on boiling test

Milk quality test through heating Clotting

Change from liquid milk to (semiby. CODEX

The Codex Alimentarius Commission was

created in 1963 by FAO and WHO to develop food standards, guidelines and related texts such as codes of practice under the Joint FAO/WHO Food Standards Programme. The main purposes of this Programme are protecting health of the consumers and ensuring fair trade practices in the food trade, and promoting coordination of all food standards work undertaken by international governmental and nongovernmental organizations. Collection centre

A place to collect milk in bulk

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organisms living either independently or in close association with other living organisms; often referred to as microbes or micro

ms because of their microscopic size. Some bacteria are beneficial, but others cause infectious diseases.

of animals through introduction of improved genes.

of whole milk or cream to make butter adding starters and rennet.

quality test through heating.

from liquid milk to (semi-) solid

The Codex Alimentarius Commission was

by FAO and WHO to dards, guidelines and

related texts such as codes of practice under the Joint FAO/WHO Food Standards Programme. The main purposes of this Programme are protecting health of the consumers and ensuring fair trade practices in the food

ordination of all food standards work undertaken by international governmental and non-governmental organizations.

place to collect milk in bulk.

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Composite milk product

Is a product of which the milk, milk products or milk constituents are an essential part in terms of quantity in the final product, as consumed provided that the constituents not derived from milk are not intended to take the place in part or in whole of any milk constituent. Cream

Milk product.

Curd separation

After coagulation the milk is separated into whey and cheese curd.

Dairy

1. A retail outlet for milk products2. The feeding and milking sheds on a dairy3. Pertaining to or emanating from an animalsother thing concerned in the production of milk, e.g. dairy goat, dairy cleanser. Dairy barn

standard indoor housing in temperate and subarctic northern hemisphere countries; a common plan is to have animals housed on the ground floor and grain and hay on the top floor from which it is delivered to the animals below; the cows are tied in stanchions and milked on the spot or roam free and are milked in a parlor.

Dairy calf

Calf of a mating between a bull and a cow, both of dairy breeds. Dairy cow

Cow of a breed specifically defimilk production, as distinct from a beef or dual purpose breed or A bovine from which milk production is intended for human consumption, or is kept for raising replacement dairy heifers.

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Composite milk product

a product of which the milk, milk products or onstituents are an essential part in terms of

quantity in the final product, as consumed provided that the constituents not derived from milk are not intended to take the place in part or in whole of any milk constituent.

coagulation the milk is separated into whey

A retail outlet for milk products. The feeding and milking sheds on a dairy farm. Pertaining to or emanating from an animals or

other thing concerned in the roduction of milk, e.g. dairy goat, dairy

standard indoor housing in temperate and subarctic northern hemisphere countries; a common plan is to have animals housed on the ground floor and grain and hay on the top floor

is delivered to the animals below; the cows are tied in stanchions and milked on the spot or roam free and are milked in a parlor.

a mating between a bull and a cow, both of

Cow of a breed specifically defined as being for milk production, as distinct from a beef or dual

breed or A bovine from which milk production is intended for human consumption, or is kept for raising replacement dairy heifers.

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Dairy Steer A neutered male of any of the dbreeds. The "dairy steers" are raised for meat production and usually managed like beef cattle.

Dam

Mother or female parent in a pedigree.

Dairy farmer

A farmer whose major enterprise is dairy farming. Dairy herd

Includes milking cows, dry cows, heifers (maiden and in-calf), calves and, where needed, bulls. Called also milking herd, dry herd, followers. Dairy industry

Includes:

• The farms, • The milk collecting and handling services, • The processors, • Manufacturers and retailers and t

private and • Government organizations involved in a

coordinating or controlling function with respect to the harvesting and disposal of dairy products.

Dairy sanitizers

Disinfectants suitable for use in an environment and in a situation in which conhuman food chain is likely to occur. Dairy terms

Means names, designations, symbols, pictorial or other devices which refer to or are suggestive, directly or indirectly, of milk or milk products.

DDS

(Dairy development strategy)

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A neutered male of any of the dairy cattle breeds. The "dairy steers" are raised for meat production and usually managed like beef cattle.

Mother or female parent in a pedigree.

farmer whose major enterprise is dairy

, dry cows, heifers calf), calves and, where needed,

also milking herd, dry herd,

milk collecting and handling services,

and retailers and the

organizations involved in a coordinating or controlling function with respect to the harvesting and disposal of

Disinfectants suitable for use in an environment and in a situation in which contamination of the human food chain is likely to occur.

names, designations, symbols, pictorial or other devices which refer to or are suggestive, directly or indirectly, of milk or milk

development strategy).

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Essential Composition and Quality Factors:

Raw materials Milk and/or products obtained from milk. Permitted ingredients

• Starter cultures of harmless lactic acid and/or flavour producing bacteria and cultures of other harmless microorganisms

• Safe and suitable enzymes

• Sodium chloride.

• Potable water.

External factors

Agricultural policy and trade policy changes:

Policy issues remain to be decided and will impact on the outlook for the dairy sector.

Animal welfare concerns:

Animal welfare concerns related to food production continue to grow among consumers in the EU. It is not easy to consider how these concerns will evolve or how these concerns will impact on dairy trade.

Weather: Weather events will continue to contribute to dairy product price volatility.

Energy prices and input prices:

Rising energy prices will have an impact on dairy production costs and dairy demand. Environmental policies and consumer

preferences: Environmental concerns will exert an increasing influence on athe dairy sector. Exchange rates: Exchange rate movements will impact on export competitiveness.

Macro economic and population growth:

The rate of recovery in dairy demand will depend on the recovery in global economic growth.

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Essential Composition and Quality Factors:

Milk and/or products obtained from milk.

Starter cultures of harmless lactic acid and/or flavour producing bacteria and cultures of other harmless microorganisms.

fe and suitable enzymes.


Policy issues remain to be decided and will impact on the outlook for the dairy sector.

Animal welfare concerns:

oncerns related to food production continue to grow among consumers in the EU. It is not easy to consider how these concerns will evolve or how these concerns will impact on dairy

Weather events will continue to contribute to dairy


Rising energy prices will have an impact on dairy production costs and dairy demand.

Environmental policies and consumer

Environmental concerns will exert an increasing influence on agriculture, including

Exchange rate movements will impact on export competitiveness.


The rate of recovery in dairy demand will depend on the recovery in global

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griculture, including




Nutrition and health agenda:

The health benefits of dairy product consumption may be undermined by legislation on labelling. Renationalization of dairy demand:

The renationalization of dairy demand would have an adverse impact on dairy exports.

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Fermented milk

Milk left at room temperature into lactic acid. Fermented milk can be used to feed young calves and may include extra colostrums, transitional milk, or nutritional value.

FDA

FDA is an agency within the Department of Health and Human

centers and offices, which are listed in menu at left.

The FDA is responsible for protecting the public health by assuring the safety, efficacy, and security of human and veterinary drugs, biological products, medical devices, our nation’s food supply, cosmetics, and products that emit radiation.The FDA is also responsible for ainnovations that make medicines and foods more effective, safer, and more affordable; and helping the public get the accurate, sciencethey need to use medicines and foods to improve their he

Flavoured milk

A subclass of fluid (packaged milks) to which chocolate, strawberry and vanilla

Fluid milk products

Milk, flavored milk, concentrated milk, filled milk, skim milk, fortified skim milk, low fat milk, buttermilk, milk drinks, and cream products

Fresh Cow

A cow that has recently given birth to a Fresh Milk Dairy products having original qualities unimpaired and those recently produced or processed.

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The health benefits of dairy product consumption may be undermined by

of dairy demand:

of dairy demand would have an adverse impact on dairy

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

left at room temperature (less than 21c) in which the lactose is fermented

Fermented milk can be used to feed young calves and may include extra , transitional milk, or mastitis milk that are not saleable but have

FDA is an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services and consists of

centers and offices, which are listed in menu at left.

e for protecting the public health by assuring the safety, efficacy, and security of human and veterinary drugs, biological products, medical devices, our nation’s food supply, cosmetics, and products that emit radiation.The FDA is also responsible for advancing the public health by helping to speed innovations that make medicines and foods more effective, safer, and more affordable; and helping the public get the accurate, science-based information they need to use medicines and foods to improve their health.

A subclass of fluid (packaged milks) to which flavoring has been added, such as chocolate, strawberry and vanilla

milk, concentrated milk, filled milk, skim milk, fortified skim milk, k, buttermilk, milk drinks, and cream products

A cow that has recently given birth to a calf.

Dairy products having original qualities unimpaired and those recently produced

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in which the lactose is fermented

Fermented milk can be used to feed young calves and may include extra milk that are not saleable but have

consists of

e for protecting the public health by assuring the safety, efficacy, and security of human and veterinary drugs, biological products, medical devices, our nation’s food supply, cosmetics, and products that emit radiation.

dvancing the public health by helping to speed innovations that make medicines and foods more effective, safer, and more

based information

has been added, such as

milk, concentrated milk, filled milk, skim milk, fortified skim milk,

Dairy products having original qualities unimpaired and those recently produced



Gerber test

Test to determine amount of fat in milk

Ghee

Concentrated milk fat prepared by melting butter, decanting the fat after gravity separation from the serum, and driving off most of the remaining moisture by heating. About 1 percent moisture remains

Heat treatment

Destroying any potential pathogenic germs by heating milk at a minimum of for 30 min.

Handlers

Processors or dealers of milk who commonly purchase raw milk and sell pasteurized milk and milk products. Hand Milking The manual milking of an animal as opposed to the use of mechanical milking devices. ISO 1737

Evaporated milk and sweetened condensed milk Gravimetric method (Reference method) ISO 2446

Milk - Determination of fat conte ISO 4832

Microbiology of food and animal feeding stuffs enumeration of coliforms ISO 4833

Microbiology of food and animal feeding stuffs enumeration of microorganisms ISO 5538

Milk and milk products — IS0 6734

Sweetened condensed milkmethod). ISO 6611

Milk and milk products —moulds — Colony-count technique at

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unt of fat in milk

oncentrated milk fat prepared by melting butter, decanting the fat after gravity separation from the serum, and driving off most of the remaining moisture by

percent moisture remains. It is used mostly in Asia an

any potential pathogenic germs by heating milk at a minimum of

Processors or dealers of milk who commonly purchase raw milk and sell pasteurized milk and milk products.

manual milking of an animal as opposed to the use of mechanical milking

Evaporated milk and sweetened condensed milk - Determination of fat content Gravimetric method (Reference method).

Determination of fat content (Routine method).

Microbiology of food and animal feeding stuffs - Horizontal method for the enumeration of coliforms - Colony-count technique.

Microbiology of food and animal feeding stuffs — Horizontal method for the of microorganisms — Colony-count technique at 30 °C

— Sampling — Inspection by attributes.

Sweetened condensed milk — Determination of total solids content (reference

— Enumeration of colony-forming units of yeasts and/or count technique at 25 °C.

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oncentrated milk fat prepared by melting butter, decanting the fat after gravity separation from the serum, and driving off most of the remaining moisture by

It is used mostly in Asia and Africa.

any potential pathogenic germs by heating milk at a minimum of 63C

Processors or dealers of milk who commonly purchase raw milk and sell

manual milking of an animal as opposed to the use of mechanical milking

Determination of fat content -

Horizontal method for the

Horizontal method for the °C.

etermination of total solids content (reference

forming units of yeasts and/or



ISO 8197

Milk and milk products — ISO 6888

Microbiology of food and animal feeding stuffs enumeration of coagulaseother species). ISO 8968

Milk — Determination of nitrogen content ISO 11866

Milk and milk products — ISO 8197

Milk and milk products —

ISO 14501

Milk and milk powder — Determination of aflatoxin Mimmunoaffinity chromatography and determination by highchromatography. Lactate To secrete or produce milk. Lagoon An earthen pond used as a primary storage site for manure. Leg Bands Cloth or plastic strips of a bright color used for marking treated cows, fresh cows, or cows needing special handling. Legume Any of thousands of plant species that have seed pods that split along both sides when ripe. Some of the more common legumes used for human consumption are beans, lentils, peanuts, peas, and soybeans. Others, such as clover and alfalfa, are used as animal feed. Legumes have a unique ability to obtain much or all of their nitrogen requirements from symbiotic nitrogen fixation. Letdown The process in a cow where physical stimulation causes a release of oxytocin and the contraction of smooth muscles supressure within the udder and milk flow. Liner A flexible sleeve in the milking teat cup or rigidfor massaging the teat end and intermittently cutting vacuum at the teat end during milking. Also called

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— Inspecting sampling — Inspection by variables

Microbiology of food and animal feeding stuffs — Horizontal method for the enumeration of coagulase-positive staphylococci (Staphylococcus aureus

Determination of nitrogen content - Kjeldahl Method.

— Enumeration of presumptive Escherichia c

— Inspecting sampling — Inspection by variables

Determination of aflatoxin M1 content — Cleanimmunoaffinity chromatography and determination by high-performance liquid

To secrete or produce milk.

An earthen pond used as a primary storage site for manure. Cloth or plastic strips of a bright color used for marking treated cows,

fresh cows, or cows needing special handling.

Any of thousands of plant species that have seed pods that split along both sides when ripe. Some of the more common legumes used for human consumption are beans, lentils, peanuts, peas, and soybeans. Others, such as clover and alfalfa,

imal feed. Legumes have a unique ability to obtain much or all of their nitrogen requirements from symbiotic nitrogen fixation.

The process in a cow where physical stimulation causes a release of oxytocin and the contraction of smooth muscles surrounding milk alveoli resulting in fluid pressure within the udder and milk flow.

A flexible sleeve in the milking teat cup or rigid-walled liner holder. Responsible for massaging the teat end and intermittently cutting vacuum at the teat end

ing milking. Also called inflation.

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Inspection by variables.

method for the aureus and

Enumeration of presumptive Escherichia coli.

Inspection by variables.

Clean-up by performance liquid

Cloth or plastic strips of a bright color used for marking treated cows,

Any of thousands of plant species that have seed pods that split along both sides when ripe. Some of the more common legumes used for human consumption are beans, lentils, peanuts, peas, and soybeans. Others, such as clover and alfalfa,

imal feed. Legumes have a unique ability to obtain much or all of

The process in a cow where physical stimulation causes a release of oxytocin and rrounding milk alveoli resulting in fluid

walled liner holder. Responsible for massaging the teat end and intermittently cutting vacuum at the teat end



Lactoperoxidase

Enzyme that keeps the milk for a longer

Milk

Is the normal mammary secretion of milking animals obtained from one or more milking without either addition to it or extraction from it, intconsumption as liquid milk or for further processing. Milk from animals that is collected and processed (from cows, goats, sheep, yaks, buffaloes, camels). Milk collection

Collection of milk from more than one farmer to a collection point or

Milk cooling

Cooling milk to increase keeping time

Milk hygiene

Making sure a milk product is clean and safe for consumption

Milk product

Is a product obtained by any processing of milk, which may contain food additives, and other ingredie

Milk testing

Checking the hygiene and composition of milk

Pasteurization

Destroying any potential pathogenic germs by heating milk at a minimum of for 30 min.

Pasteurized milk

Milk that has been heat treated to a high temperature in order to kill potentially harmful bacteria. Of course much of the good bacteria Through technology, there are many methods that can be employed to reintroduce beneficial flavours back intomany extremely delicious pasteurized cheeses.

Processing of milk

Making milk products like cheese, yoghurt, et

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that keeps the milk for a longer period.

the normal mammary secretion of milking animals obtained from one or more without either addition to it or extraction from it, intended for

consumption as liquid milk or for further processing.

from animals that is collected and processed (from cows, goats, sheep, yaks,

of milk from more than one farmer to a collection point or

milk to increase keeping time.

sure a milk product is clean and safe for consumption.

a product obtained by any processing of milk, which may contain food additives, and other ingredients functionally necessary for the processing.

the hygiene and composition of milk.

any potential pathogenic germs by heating milk at a minimum of

heat treated to a high temperature in order to kill potentially Of course much of the good bacteria have been killed as well.

Through technology, there are many methods that can be employed to beneficial flavours back into the milk after the process.

many extremely delicious pasteurized cheeses.

milk products like cheese, yoghurt, etc.

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the normal mammary secretion of milking animals obtained from one or more ended for

from animals that is collected and processed (from cows, goats, sheep, yaks,

of milk from more than one farmer to a collection point or centre.

a product obtained by any processing of milk, which may contain food nts functionally necessary for the processing.

any potential pathogenic germs by heating milk at a minimum of 63C

heat treated to a high temperature in order to kill potentially been killed as well.

Through technology, there are many methods that can be employed to the milk after the process. There are



Raw milk

Milk that has not been heat treated to kill bacteria.bacteria. When the milk is heated, both good and bad bacteria are killed.good bacteria contain flavours and when they are destroyed their flavour disappears as well. Raw milk cheeses often retain more subtle flavours specific to their milk.

Rennet

Substance causing milk to coagulate, used for the preparation of cheese

Rind

The exterior surface of the cheese. Semi-soft

These cheeses have a bit of bounce, when pressed they are firm, but give.When opened, they are often smooth and supple, but retain Skim milk

Milk from which sufficient cream has been removed to reduce its milk fat content to not more than 0.2 percentwater-soluble vitamins and only half as many calories as whole milk. In the final beverage form, it has been contains added vitamins A and D. It can be used in a liquid form to feed young calves.

SNF

Solids Non Fat.

Sweetened condensed milk

Milk product which can be obtained by the the addition of sugar, or by any other process which leads to a product of the same composition and characteristics Soft ripened

This is a cheese where the curds more or less liquefy during the aging process, taking between touch. When opened, they often ooze. Standardisation

Making milk with constant butterfat through partial skimming Thermalized milk

This is a heat treating process that is a half way meatechnically considered “raw milk”.than pasteurization, but for a longer period of time.potentially harmful bacteria are destroyed and at the same time mgood bacteria and enzymes are preserved contributing to increased flavour.

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Milk that has not been heat treated to kill bacteria. There are good and bad When the milk is heated, both good and bad bacteria are killed.

good bacteria contain flavours and when they are destroyed their flavour Raw milk cheeses often retain more subtle flavours specific to

causing milk to coagulate, used for the preparation of cheese

The exterior surface of the cheese.

These cheeses have a bit of bounce, when pressed they are firm, but give.When opened, they are often smooth and supple, but retain their shape.

Milk from which sufficient cream has been removed to reduce its milk fat content percent. Skim milk contains protein, lactose, minerals and

soluble vitamins and only half as many calories as whole milk. In the final beverage form, it has been pasteurized or ultra-pasteurizedcontains added vitamins A and D. It can be used in a liquid form to feed young

weetened condensed milk

product which can be obtained by the partial removal of water from milk with the addition of sugar, or by any other process which leads to a product of the same composition and characteristics.

This is a cheese where the curds more or less liquefy during the aging ing between 30 and 120 days. The cheese is notably soft to the

When opened, they often ooze.

milk with constant butterfat through partial skimming.

This is a heat treating process that is a half way measure and in manytechnically considered “raw milk”. The milk is heated to a lesser temperature

for a longer period of time. The idea is that many of the potentially harmful bacteria are destroyed and at the same time much of the good bacteria and enzymes are preserved contributing to increased flavour.

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There are good and bad When the milk is heated, both good and bad bacteria are killed. The

good bacteria contain flavours and when they are destroyed their flavour Raw milk cheeses often retain more subtle flavours specific to

causing milk to coagulate, used for the preparation of cheese.

These cheeses have a bit of bounce, when pressed they are firm, but give. their shape.

Milk from which sufficient cream has been removed to reduce its milk fat content minerals and

soluble vitamins and only half as many calories as whole milk. pasteurized and

contains added vitamins A and D. It can be used in a liquid form to feed young

partial removal of water from milk with the addition of sugar, or by any other process which leads to a product of the

This is a cheese where the curds more or less liquefy during the aging The cheese is notably soft to the

sure and in many regions is The milk is heated to a lesser temperature

The idea is that many of the uch of the

good bacteria and enzymes are preserved contributing to increased flavour.



TS

Total Solids.

USDA

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Yoghurt Fermented milk product.

Washed rind

After these cheeses are formed, they begin a pcultured brine solution. This process washes away unwanted mould and bacteria and introduces bacteria that will act on the cheese and transform its character.Many washed rind cheeses are also washed with a local aladditional flavour. Washed rind cheeses are often known as the “stinky cheeses”flavour is usually more mild than the aroma suggests and is, many times, delightfully complex.

Whey

Watery part remaining after milk

Whey Cheeses

Are solid, semi-solid, or soft products which are principally obtained through either of the following processes: (1) The concentration of whey and the (2) The coagulation of whey by heat

Whole milk

Unaltered milk collected from day also colostrums and transitional milk).

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

After these cheeses are formed, they begin a process of being washed in a

This process washes away unwanted mould and bacteria and introduces that will act on the cheese and transform its character.

cheeses are also washed with a local alcoholic spirit imbuing

Washed rind cheeses are often known as the “stinky cheeses” The resulting flavour is usually more mild than the aroma suggests and is, many times,

part remaining after milk has curdled.

solid, or soft products which are principally obtained through following processes:

The concentration of whey and the molding of the concentrated product;The coagulation of whey by heat with or without the addition of acid.

milk collected from day 4 after calving until the end of a lactation and transitional milk).

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rocess of being washed in a

This process washes away unwanted mould and bacteria and introduces specific

coholic spirit imbuing

The resulting flavour is usually more mild than the aroma suggests and is, many times,

solid, or soft products which are principally obtained through

of the concentrated product; with or without the addition of acid.

after calving until the end of a lactation (see




With the second-highest recorded cereals year and stocks replenished, the world food supply looks less vulnerable to shocks than it was during last year’s food crisis, FAO said in its food outlook report published today. But some potential dangers remain, it also noted. “In spite of strong gains in recent weeks, international prices of most agricultural commodities have fallen in 2008 heights, an indication that many markets are slowly returning into balance,” the twice Apparent easing of market conditions was reflected in the benchmark FAO Food Price Index, which had fallen by one third since its peak in June 2008 at the height of the world food crisis But food prices remained high in many developing countries, and access to food by the poor also continued to be threatened

effects of the global economic crisis.

Critical sector

So far the improvement largely concerned cereals sector for food security –Overshot original forecasts, the report said. The bumper crop had also facilitated replenishment of global reserves to precrisis levels. “With the new 2009-2010prospects continue to be positive as world cereal productionexpected to be the second largest, after last year’s record,” it added. World production was forecast at as compared with 2 287 million tonnes in FAO’s first forecast for world cereal utilization in suggested a relatively weak growth of around the estimated 2008/09 levelThis compared with nearly First forecasts

First forecast for world cereal trade in nearly 4 percent from last year. This contraction mostly concerned wheat imports, which could fall by as much as 10 million tonnes in the new seasonproduction in several major wheat More problematic was the oilseed products sector, with prices on world markets increasing as a consequence of production setbacks in some major producers and of expanding consumption of animal feed in China and India. Oilseeds production in 2008/0percent more than the 403.1

)12Page (




highest recorded cereals crop expected this year and stocks replenished, the world food supply looks less vulnerable to shocks than it was during last year’s food crisis, FAO said in its food outlook report published today. But some potential dangers remain, it also noted.

pite of strong gains in recent weeks, international prices of most agricultural commodities have fallen in 2009 from their

an indication that many markets are slowly returning into balance,” the twice-yearly report said.

arket conditions was reflected in the benchmark FAO Food Price Index, which had fallen by one third since its peak in

at the height of the world food crisis.

But food prices remained high in many developing countries, and access to food poor also continued to be threatened by loss of employment, income and other

effects of the global economic crisis.

So far the improvement largely concerned cereals – the critical – after record production in 2008.

original forecasts, the report said. The bumper crop had also facilitated replenishment of global reserves to pre-

2010 marketing season commencing, prospects continue to be positive as world cereal production is expected to be the second largest, after last year’s record,” it

World production was forecast at 2 219 million tonnes million tonnes in 2008/09.

FAO’s first forecast for world cereal utilization in 2009/10 latively weak growth of around 1.3 percent from

level, to 2 230 million tonnes. This compared with nearly 4 percent growth in the previous season

First forecast for world cereal trade in 2009/10 was 257 million tonnpercent from last year.

This contraction mostly concerned wheat imports, which could fall by as much as million tonnes in the new season, reflecting a strong anticipated recovery in

production in several major wheat-importing countries.

More problematic was the oilseed products sector, with prices on world markets increasing as a consequence of production setbacks in some major producers and of expanding consumption of animal feed in China and India.

2008/09 was forecast at 405.9 million tonnes403.1 million tonnes estimated for the year before

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benchmark FAO Food Price Index, which had fallen by one third since its peak in

But food prices remained high in many developing countries, and access to food by loss of employment, income and other

million tonnes, down by

This contraction mostly concerned wheat imports, which could fall by as much as reflecting a strong anticipated recovery in

More problematic was the oilseed products sector, with prices on world markets increasing as a consequence of production setbacks in some major producers and

million tonnes, 0.7 million tonnes estimated for the year before.



“The surge in soybean quotations in recent weeks, on the back of shrinking world reserves, is emerging as a cause for concern given its feed prices,” Food Outlook noted.

)13Page (



“The surge in soybean quotations in recent weeks, on the back of shrinking world reserves, is emerging as a cause for concern given its strong bearing on food and feed prices,” Food Outlook noted.

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“The surge in soybean quotations in recent weeks, on the back of shrinking world strong bearing on food and



International Dairy Trade

The major dairy products traded internationally can be broadly placed in

four categories:

Butter, Cheese, Dry milk powders, and Ingredients

Within these categories are a large number of “differentiated products”

Cheese varieties, Dry milk powders with a range of fat contents, or Milk components, such as the various milk proteins.

The ingredient trade has only recently emerged as a key sector, drive

primarily by widening uses of milk proteins and lactose (milk sugar) in

various food applications.

The biggest players in international dairy trade

The biggest players in international dairy trade are not necessarily the largest producers.

New Zealand, for example, is one of the smallest producing countries but is a major dairy trading country

A country’s population relative to its production of milk is a key to determining the likelihood of its having a milk surplus or a milk deficit

Milk-surplus countries that supply foreign markets typically have an efficient manufacturing sector capable of producing storable dairy products with quality attributes at prices that make exporting economically feasible

)14Page (



International Dairy Trade


Dry milk powders, and

hese categories are a large number of “differentiated products”

heese varieties,

ry milk powders with a range of fat contents, or

ilk components, such as the various milk proteins.

The ingredient trade has only recently emerged as a key sector, drive


various food applications.

The biggest players in international dairy trade

The biggest players in international dairy trade are not necessarily the .

nd, for example, is one of the smallest producing countries but is a major dairy trading country. A country’s population relative to its production of milk is a key to determining the likelihood of its having a milk surplus or a milk deficit

us countries that supply foreign markets typically have an efficient manufacturing sector capable of producing storable dairy products with quality attributes at prices that make exporting economically feasible

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hese categories are a large number of “differentiated products”

The ingredient trade has only recently emerged as a key sector, driven


The biggest players in international dairy trade are not necessarily the

nd, for example, is one of the smallest producing countries but

A country’s population relative to its production of milk is a key to determining the likelihood of its having a milk surplus or a milk deficit.

us countries that supply foreign markets typically have an efficient manufacturing sector capable of producing storable dairy products with quality attributes at prices that make exporting economically feasible.



International dairy trade haunwanted surplus commodities. However, dairy trade is now increasingly driven by demands from developingupgrade diets and developed

Dairy markets everywhere are being shaped by consumer demands, the ability of dairy farmers to react to change, and dairy company strategies for maximizing profits. Firms operating successfully in global dairy markets are those that respond quickly to changing econpolicies—nonagricultural as well as agriculturaland demand factors.

Those firms may be national firms operating in single countries, regional firms operating in a wella presence in multiple regions or areas.

Competition among firms has grown, but so has the number of firms joining forces.

As international dairy companies recognize the potential benefits from supplying milk and dairy products in differenfor demand growth, they are repositioning themselves to source milk and products from multiple locations. This trend is spawning partnerships and joint ventures among firms seeking to benefit by controlling all stages of the production process.

Direct investment across borders has also altered competition in dairy markets. Globalization has tended to emphasize the strength of multinational dairy firms, with the most prominent being

• Nestlé (Switzerland), • Arla Foods (Denmark• Danone (France), • The Fonterra Co• Lactalis (France), • Unilever (Netherlands• Kraft Foods (U.S.).

Multinational firms

Multinational firms can operate in several countries or regions using any number of approaches.

They can build new facilities to manufacture locally demanded products, or they can form alliances or partnerships with existing local firms that have cultivated local demand.

Purchase of local brands is another option. A strategy that emploreduce price risks and market volatility.

While multinationals are most active in stable, wellalliances or partnerships with local firms have helped them expand to emerging markets in recent years.

)15Page (



International dairy trade has often been called a dumping ground for unwanted surplus commodities. However, dairy trade is now increasingly driven by demands from developing-country consumers wanting to upgrade diets and developed-country markets seeking specialty products

kets everywhere are being shaped by consumer demands, the ability of dairy farmers to react to change, and dairy company strategies for maximizing profits. Firms operating successfully in global dairy markets are those that respond quickly to changing economic forces, changing

nonagricultural as well as agricultural—and shifts in milk supply and demand factors.

Those firms may be national firms operating in single countries, regional firms operating in a well-defined area, or multinational (globala presence in multiple regions or areas.

Competition among firms has grown, but so has the number of firms

As international dairy companies recognize the potential benefits from supplying milk and dairy products in different countries and the prospects for demand growth, they are repositioning themselves to source milk and products from multiple locations. This trend is spawning partnerships and joint ventures among firms seeking to benefit by controlling all stages of

roduction process.

Direct investment across borders has also altered competition in dairy markets. Globalization has tended to emphasize the strength of multinational dairy firms, with the most prominent being :

Nestlé (Switzerland), Arla Foods (Denmark-Sweden), Danone (France), he Fonterra Co-operative Group (New Zealand), Lactalis (France), Unilever (Netherlands-U.K), and Kraft Foods (U.S.).

Multinational firms can operate in several countries or regions using any pproaches.

They can build new facilities to manufacture locally demanded products, or they can form alliances or partnerships with existing local firms that have cultivated local demand.

Purchase of local brands is another option. A strategy that employs all of these approaches enables multinationals to reduce price risks and market volatility. While multinationals are most active in stable, well-established markets, alliances or partnerships with local firms have helped them expand to

s in recent years.

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s often been called a dumping ground for unwanted surplus commodities. However, dairy trade is now increasingly

country consumers wanting to country markets seeking specialty products

kets everywhere are being shaped by consumer demands, the ability of dairy farmers to react to change, and dairy company strategies for maximizing profits. Firms operating successfully in global dairy markets

omic forces, changing and shifts in milk supply

Those firms may be national firms operating in single countries, regional defined area, or multinational (global) firms with

Competition among firms has grown, but so has the number of firms

As international dairy companies recognize the potential benefits from t countries and the prospects

for demand growth, they are repositioning themselves to source milk and products from multiple locations. This trend is spawning partnerships and joint ventures among firms seeking to benefit by controlling all stages of

Direct investment across borders has also altered competition in dairy markets. Globalization has tended to emphasize the strength of

Multinational firms can operate in several countries or regions using any

They can build new facilities to manufacture locally demanded products, or they can form alliances or partnerships with existing local firms that have

ys all of these approaches enables multinationals to

established markets, alliances or partnerships with local firms have helped them expand to



Multinational dairy companies

Have long viewed the U.S. with its large and affluent market as an opportunity. Since trade opportunities are limited by trade impediments, multinationals have chosen to make direct investments.

Led by firms based in the European Union (EU), foreign direct investment in the U

Nestlé and Unilever have gained a major stake in the U.S. ice cream industry through purchases of U.S. brands.

Together, they account for asales in the U.S.

Several French companiesBongrain—are involved in U.S. yogurt and cheese markets.

Yoplait, a premier brand of Sodiaal, has been licensed to General Mills,while the Président brand of cheese is a Lactalis product manufactured in Wisconsin and California.

The Changing Face of Dairy Products

Dairy products available on the market range from basic raw milk to fairly standardized “commodity” products to an array of higher valued products that have only recently gained wider market presence.

Historically, when trade is the issue, both within and between countries, the commodity productsnonfat dry milk, and butter

These were the products that could best withstand the rigors of transport. However, factors such as the emergence of sophisticated milk components as ingredients, greater emphasis on cheese variety (including brands), recognition of wellinternational product markets, development of manufacturing processes that lengthen shelfchanged the way firms assess both domestic and global dairy marketplaces.

These changes in global dairy marketsignificant market intervention by some of the world’s leading dairy product importers and exporters.

Many countries maintain border and domestic support measures of various types for their dairy sectors

Dairy policies around the world are changing slowly, primarily as a result of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations.

The dominant border measures now in place are tariffs or tariffsystems, and they are at the core of many issues surrounding market access.

Domestic dairy policies include mainly price support and institutionalized pricing systems, policies that have been called trade distorting in many circles.

)16Page (



Multinational dairy companies

Have long viewed the U.S. with its large and affluent market as an opportunity. Since trade opportunities are limited by trade impediments, multinationals have chosen to make direct

d by firms based in the European Union (EU), foreign direct investment in the U.S. now stands at about $5 billion. Nestlé and Unilever have gained a major stake in the U.S. ice cream industry through purchases of U.S. brands. Together, they account for about 30 percent of supermarket ice cream

Several French companies—Fromageries Bel, Sodiaal, Lactalis, and

are involved in U.S. yogurt and cheese markets. Yoplait, a premier brand of Sodiaal, has been licensed to General Mills,while the Président brand of cheese is a Lactalis product manufactured in Wisconsin and California.

The Changing Face of Dairy Products

Dairy products available on the market range from basic raw milk to fairly standardized “commodity”

array of higher valued products that have only recently gained wider market presence. Historically, when trade is the issue, both within and between countries, the commodity products—cheese, nonfat dry milk, and butter—have held center stage.

e the products that could best withstand the rigors of transport. However, factors such as the emergence of sophisticated milk components as ingredients, greater emphasis on cheese variety (including brands), recognition of well-defined local, national, aninternational product markets, development of manufacturing processes that lengthen shelf-life, and improved transportation systems have changed the way firms assess both domestic and global dairy

These changes in global dairy markets are taking place in the context of significant market intervention by some of the world’s leading dairy product importers and exporters. Many countries maintain border and domestic support measures of various types for their dairy sectors.

es around the world are changing slowly, primarily as a result of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The dominant border measures now in place are tariffs or tariffsystems, and they are at the core of many issues surrounding market

Domestic dairy policies include mainly price support and institutionalized pricing systems, policies that have been called trade distorting in many

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Have long viewed the U.S. with its large and affluent market as an

d by firms based in the European Union (EU), foreign direct

Nestlé and Unilever have gained a major stake in the U.S. ice cream

percent of supermarket ice cream

Fromageries Bel, Sodiaal, Lactalis, and

Yoplait, a premier brand of Sodiaal, has been licensed to General Mills, while the Président brand of cheese is a Lactalis product manufactured in

defined local, national, and even international product markets, development of manufacturing processes

life, and improved transportation systems have changed the way firms assess both domestic and global dairy

s are taking place in the context of significant market intervention by some of the world’s leading dairy

Many countries maintain border and domestic support measures of various

es around the world are changing slowly, primarily as a result

The dominant border measures now in place are tariffs or tariff-rate quota systems, and they are at the core of many issues surrounding market

Domestic dairy policies include mainly price support and institutionalized pricing systems, policies that have been called trade distorting in many



Dairy Products

Fluid Milk Egg Nog Cheese Butter Yogurt Ice Cream Powdered Milk Whey Powder Butter Powder Meat Leather goods Fertilizers Cosmetics

The variety of products resulting from the milk. Fluid milk is available in several varieties

Skim Milk (0% fat), 1%, (approximately 3.5%). Raw milk

Is separated into skim milk and cream, and then reblended to a standard fat content for each product. Because cows' milk averages more than extra cream is used to make other liquid products like whipping cream, half and half, and eggnog or it is manufactured into butter or ice cream. Fluid milk in the U.S. is pasteurized (milk is pasteurizedby rapidly heating it to 72seconds, and then quickly cooling) to kill potentially harmful bacteria. Fluid milk is also homogenized (fat dispersed so they do not float to the top) and is fortified with vitamins A and D, which along with the absorbable calcium naturally in milk are needed for strong healthy bones and teeth. Over the most recent two decades, fluid milk consumption per capita has declined, and sales of lowfat milk have increased relative to whole milk. Recent innovative marketing of convenient single servings of milk and introduction of a wide variety of milk flavors have increased sales of individual servings

)17Page (



The variety of products resulting from the milk.

Fluid milk is available in several varieties

, 2%, and Whole

d into skim milk and cream, and then re-blended to a standard fat content for each product.

milk averages more than 3.5% fat, the extra cream is used to make other liquid products like whipping cream, half and half, and eggnog or it is

actured into butter or ice cream.

Fluid milk in the U.S. is pasteurized (milk is pasteurized 72 - 75 °C for 15 to 20

seconds, and then quickly cooling) to kill potentially

Fluid milk is also homogenized (fat droplets are dispersed so they do not float to the top) and is fortified with vitamins A and D, which along with the absorbable calcium naturally in milk are needed for strong healthy bones and teeth.

Over the most recent two decades, fluid milk on per capita has declined, and sales of low-

fat milk have increased relative to whole milk. Recent innovative marketing of convenient single servings of milk and introduction of a wide variety of milk flavors have increased sales of individual servings.

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WHOLE MILK POWDER

World

New Zealand

European Union *

Argentina

Australia

SKIM MILK POWDER

World

United States

New Zealand

European Union *

Australia

BUTTER

World

New Zealand

European Union *

Australia

Belarus

CHEESE

World

European Union *

New Zealand

Australia

Belarus

* Excluding trade between the European Union Member States.

Domestic Dairy Policies in Key Global Market The Interface between

For dairy industries in individual countries, the first priority is to provide anadequate supply of milk to satisfy domestic market needs, first the fluidmarket, and then manufactured pro

Domestic dairy policiespromote milk production in athey have promoted surplus

Those surpluses are available for exportwhich they are termed trade distorting.

By explicitly including agricultural trade and domestic agricultural supportpolicies in its negotiations, the Uruguay Round of the General Agreementon Tariffs and Trade (GATT) opendebates during trade talks that often centered on domestic dairy policies and programs.

)18Page (




2007 2008 Preliminary 2009

Thousand tonnes

WHOLE MILK POWDER

1 757 1 849 1

680 607

366 484

115 120

116 107

KIM MILK POWDER

1 145 1 201 1

255 400

281 242

201 179

134 112

852 809

361 325

210 150

66 56

50 55

1 818 1 751 1

594 546

309 247

218 211

92 101


Domestic Dairy Policies in Key Global Markets

between Domestic Dairy Policies and Dairy Trade

For dairy industries in individual countries, the first priority is to provide anadequate supply of milk to satisfy domestic market needs, first the fluidmarket, and then manufactured product markets.

Domestic dairy policies and programs are generally mechanisms to promote milk production in a country, but in some cases around the world they have promoted surplus production above domestic needs.

Those surpluses are available for export but may also impede importswhich they are termed trade distorting.

By explicitly including agricultural trade and domestic agricultural supportpolicies in its negotiations, the Uruguay Round of the General Agreementon Tariffs and Trade (GATT) opened the door for several contentiousdebates during trade talks that often centered on domestic dairy policies

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Forecast

1 826

686

386

107

109

1 186

350

278

180

115

798

338

150

58

60

1 776

536

284

215

110


Policies and Dairy Trade

For dairy industries in individual countries, the first priority is to provide an adequate supply of milk to satisfy domestic market needs, first the fluid

and programs are generally mechanisms to country, but in some cases around the world production above domestic needs.

but may also impede imports—for

By explicitly including agricultural trade and domestic agricultural support policies in its negotiations, the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement

ed the door for several contentious debates during trade talks that often centered on domestic dairy policies



As evidenced by these discussions, firms interested in greater international market participation may benefit from an assessment domestic dairy policies and programs as they interface with dairy trade policies.

As the global dairy industry continues to evolve, it is important to determine

those countries for which the interface between international dairy trade and domestic dairy policy is an issue.

The top five countries or

Imports, and exports of

powder.

Almost all countriesand at least two countries have both.

The bottom line in the table identifies four countrieswith significant institutional structures, other than tariffs and TRQs, in placeindustry support: The EU, Canada, Ja

Years—a 7-percent reduction per year in a 4-percent reduction in

For nonfat dry milk, the price reductions are uniform at 5 percent per Yearthat actually did occur.

A limit has been established for annual intervention purchases of 30,0002004 and reduced by

The EU will make direct payments, which may be coupled to milk production or not, to cover lost rev

)19Page (



As evidenced by these discussions, firms interested in greater international market participation may benefit from an assessment of the effects of domestic dairy policies and programs as they interface with dairy trade

As the global dairy industry continues to evolve, it is important to

those countries for which the interface between international dairy trade domestic dairy policy is an issue.

top five countries or areas of the world for production, consumption,

mports, and exports of butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whole milk

Almost all countries have tariffs or tariff-rate quota (TRQ) systems in place countries have both.

The bottom line in the table identifies four countries with significant institutional structures, other than tariffs and TRQs, in place to provide domestic dairy industry support:

EU, Canada, Japan, and the United States. percent reduction per year in 2005-07 and

percent reduction in 2008. For nonfat dry milk, the price reductions are uniform

Year from 2004 to 2006, reductions that actually did occur.

een established for annual intervention 30,000 tons of butter by 2008, starting from 70,000

and reduced by 10,000 tons annually. The EU will make direct payments, which may be coupled to milk

not, to cover lost revenues due to price reductions.

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As evidenced by these discussions, firms interested in greater international of the effects of

domestic dairy policies and programs as they interface with dairy trade

As the global dairy industry continues to evolve, it is important to

those countries for which the interface between international dairy trade

areas of the world for production, consumption,

butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whole milk

systems in place

70,000 tons in

The EU will make direct payments, which may be coupled to milk enues due to price reductions.



Member states may makeprovided by the EU(noncommodity-specific) single farm

The EU

The EU increased its population bypercent and its arable land by nearly Other countries are also scheduled for membership, including Romania and Bulgaria in2007.

The ongoing changes in the EU will result in its having a larger prein global agricultural markets, but whether it will be an importing orproducts is to be determined.

Canada

Canadian dairy policy rests first and foremost on the supply managementsystem implemented in the mid

All current programs are designed

Both the Federal and the Provincialregulating milk markets.

Canada has several other programs in place that address seasonality,domestic dairy product innovatthe provision of milk components through a special use permit for use inmanufactured products.

A revenue pooling system in place since revenues from all milk sales, fluid and industfactors, to be used to establish blend prices for

Canada also employs a purchase program for butter and skimthat establishes reference (support) prices for milk used inproducts.

Canada implemented several TRQs for dairy products under the terms of the World Trade Organization butter.

Approximately two(Canadian Dairy Commission

Japan

Dairy policies in Japan emphasize selfproduction through milk supply controls and direct producersupport.

There are two milk marketsmanufacturing milk.

)20Page (



Member states may make additional payments from a national budget provided by the EU. In 2008, dairy payments will be incorporated into the

specific) single farm payment (Kelch and Normile

he EU increased its population by nearly 30 percent and its arable land by nearly 40 percent.

are also scheduled for membership, including Romania and Bulgaria in

The ongoing changes in the EU will result in its having a larger presence in global agricultural markets, but whether it will be an importing or exporting area for various products is to be determined.

Canadian dairy policy rests first and foremost on the supply managementsystem implemented in the mid-1970s.

current programs are designed with this system as the backdrop.

Both the Federal and the Provincial Governments are involved in regulating milk markets.

Canada has several other programs in place that address seasonality,domestic dairy product innovation, the marketing of dairy ingredients, andthe provision of milk components through a special use permit for use inmanufactured products.

A revenue pooling system in place since 1996 serves as a means for revenues from all milk sales, fluid and industrial, adjusted by several factors, to be used to establish blend prices for producers. Canada also employs a purchase program for butter and skimthat establishes reference (support) prices for milk used in manufactured

mented several TRQs for dairy products under the terms of World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1994, the primary TRQ being for

Approximately two-thirds of the butter TRQ is allocated to NewCanadian Dairy Commission, 2005).

y policies in Japan emphasize self-sufficiency in milk and dairyproduction through milk supply controls and direct producer

There are two milk markets—one for drinking milk and one for manufacturing milk.

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additional payments from a national budget payments will be incorporated into the

Kelch and Normile, 2004).

Canadian dairy policy rests first and foremost on the supply management

with this system as the backdrop.

Governments are involved in

Canada has several other programs in place that address seasonality, ion, the marketing of dairy ingredients, and

the provision of milk components through a special use permit for use in

serves as a means for adjusted by several

Canada also employs a purchase program for butter and skim milk powder manufactured

mented several TRQs for dairy products under the terms of the primary TRQ being for

thirds of the butter TRQ is allocated to New Zealand

sufficiency in milk and dairy product income

one for



The quantity of fluiproducers and allocated to regional membersquota and face penalties if they exceed it.

Manufacturing milk constitutes about and Roberts, 2001milk to be used for cheese production.

Quota participation is voluntary,payments for milk producedproduced over their quota.

The direct payment system replaced a deficiency payment system in

Japan initiated an income stabilization program for milk producers into reduce the effects of dairy product price declines.

The Agriculture and Livestock Inenterprise, is authorized to stabilize dairy product prices by market intervention and stockpiling2005).

United States

U.S. milk producers have received government support since

Current domestic programs include milk price support, the Federal milk marketing order system, and direct payments under the Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program.

Dairy policies and programs have been modifiedeconomic relationships over time, but underlying generalremain the same: ensure the orderly marketing of an adequatefresh wholesome milk to meet consumer demands at reasonableand provide adequate returns to milk producers (Manchester a2001).

WTO commitments in industry.

Legislation in 1996proposed fundamental changes in domestic dairy policies and programs that, if implemented, wo

The Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP), a program for subsidizing certain dairy productend of the price support program was proposed. Milk price support never actually ended. It

was revived in its more traditional “permanent” form in Payment program for milk producers, MILC, was authorized with paymentsFirst made in 2003

The DEIP was continued still subject to the reducedthe WTO.

)21Page (



The quantity of fluid milk is set by a national board of designated milk producers and allocated to regional members who voluntarily accept their quota and face penalties if they exceed it.

Manufacturing milk constitutes about 40 percent of total production 2001) and is subject to a formal quota system,

milk to be used for cheese production.

Quota participation is voluntary, and those who participate receive direct payments for milk produced within their quota and no payment for milk

ver their quota.

direct payment system replaced a deficiency payment system in

Japan initiated an income stabilization program for milk producers into reduce the effects of dairy product price declines.

The Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corporation, a state trade enterprise, is authorized to stabilize dairy product prices by market intervention and stockpiling when necessary (Obara, Dyck, and Stout,

U.S. milk producers have received government support since

Current domestic programs include milk price support, the Federal milkmarketing order system, and direct payments under the Milk Income LossContract (MILC) program.

Dairy policies and programs have been modified to meet changing elationships over time, but underlying general objectives

remain the same: ensure the orderly marketing of an adequatefresh wholesome milk to meet consumer demands at reasonableand provide adequate returns to milk producers (Manchester a

WTO commitments in 1994 had immediate implications for the U

1996 addressed meeting the WTO commitments andproposed fundamental changes in domestic dairy policies and programs

if implemented, would reduce trade-distorting support.

Incentive Program (DEIP), a program for subsidizing certain dairy product exports, was limited by WTO commitments, and the

support program was proposed. Milk price support never

was revived in its more traditional “permanent” form in 2002program for milk producers, MILC, was authorized with payments

2003. The DEIP was continued still subject to the reduced Levels agreed to under

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board of designated milk who voluntarily accept their

percent of total production (Bull , except for

and those who participate receive direct within their quota and no payment for milk

direct payment system replaced a deficiency payment system in 2001.

Japan initiated an income stabilization program for milk producers in 2001

dustries Corporation, a state trade enterprise, is authorized to stabilize dairy product prices by market

when necessary (Obara, Dyck, and Stout,

U.S. milk producers have received government support since the 1930s.

Current domestic programs include milk price support, the Federal milk marketing order system, and direct payments under the Milk Income Loss

to meet changing objectives

remain the same: ensure the orderly marketing of an adequate supply of fresh wholesome milk to meet consumer demands at reasonable prices and provide adequate returns to milk producers (Manchester and Blayney,

had immediate implications for the U.S. dairy

addressed meeting the WTO commitments and proposed fundamental changes in domestic dairy policies and programs

distorting support.

Incentive Program (DEIP), a program for subsidizing exports, was limited by WTO commitments, and the

support program was proposed. Milk price support never

2002, and a direct program for milk producers, MILC, was authorized with payments

agreed to under



Dairy-Trading Nations

Most of the remaining countries that appear as major dairy product exportersor importers have few or no domestic dairy policies or programs.

Australia and New Zealand

Are long-time international dairy market participants. New Zealand has not had significant agricultural support of any kindsince the mid-1980

The Australian dairy industry generally has been moreefforts to tie its agricultural industries to internatiodomestic dairy policy changesmarket pricing was reformed.

Brazil and Argentina

Countries such as Brazil and Argentina are relatively new participants in international dairyunknown.

However, they are clearly recognized as potential key suppliers and have relatively unregulated domestic industries.

Other importing and exporting relationshipsproximity and possi

Domestic dairy policies and programs in key trading areas or nations are still a significant determinant of global dairy product flows.

Dairy industry representativesconcerns in statements

• market access (including administration• export subsidies, and • change in existing domestic

Milk producers, processors, product manufacturers,firms in other countries have generally expressed the sameto different degrees.

Assessments of dairy trade liberalizationof domestic policies and programs, dairysubsidies.

Dairy Markets Review

Global dairy markets have experienced substantial price swings over the last two years. In rise to a record increase in world prices across the f

However, this was then followed by an even more dramatic collapse in world dairy product prices over the last

Numerous factors, on both the demand side and the supply side, played a role in the evolution of world dair

)22e (Pag



Trading Nations with Little Domestic Support

Most of the remaining countries that appear as major dairy product exportersor importers have few or no domestic dairy policies or programs.

Australia and New Zealand

ternational dairy market participants. New Zealand has not had significant agricultural support of any kind

1980s.

The Australian dairy industry generally has been more protected, but efforts to tie its agricultural industries to international marketsdomestic dairy policy changes—the most recent in 2000 when fluidmarket pricing was reformed.

Countries such as Brazil and Argentina are relatively new participants in dairy-market exporting, and their long-term prospects are

However, they are clearly recognized as potential key suppliers and have unregulated domestic industries.

Other importing and exporting relationships seem to be based on regional proximity and possibly former political ties.

Domestic dairy policies and programs in key trading areas or nations are significant determinant of global dairy product flows.

Dairy industry representatives in the United States emphasize three major ements regarding international dairy trade:

market access (including administration of border measures), export subsidies, and change in existing domestic dairy support programs.

Milk producers, processors, product manufacturers, and dairy marketing irms in other countries have generally expressed the same concernto different degrees.

Assessments of dairy trade liberalization often posit complete elimination of domestic policies and programs, dairy border measures, and export

Markets Review - Overview of current market situation

Global dairy markets have experienced substantial price swings over the In 2007 and early 2008, a range of factors initially gave

rise to a record increase in world prices across the full dairy product range. However, this was then followed by an even more dramatic collapse in world dairy product prices over the last 12 months. Numerous factors, on both the demand side and the supply side, played a role in the evolution of world dairy prices over the last three years.

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Most of the remaining countries that appear as major dairy product exporters

New Zealand has not had significant agricultural support of any kind

protected, but nal markets have led to

when fluid milk

Countries such as Brazil and Argentina are relatively new participants in term prospects are

However, they are clearly recognized as potential key suppliers and have

seem to be based on regional

Domestic dairy policies and programs in key trading areas or nations are

in the United States emphasize three major

of border measures),

and dairy marketing concern—but

often posit complete elimination border measures, and export

Overview of current market situation

Global dairy markets have experienced substantial price swings over the a range of factors initially gave

ull dairy product range. However, this was then followed by an even more dramatic collapse in

Numerous factors, on both the demand side and the supply side, played a y prices over the last three years.



World milk production has fallen since impacting production in Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and Ukraine, while some countries also placed restriction on exports to world markets as a means of dampening domestic food price inflation.

On the demand side, strong global consumption growth had been a consistent trend in dairy markets in the current decade.

Rapid economic growth in developing economies and in crude oil exporting countries stimulated demand for dairy products. In addition, population growth, increased have also boosted consumption.

In 2007 dairy producers temporarily experienced an income boomcosts remained relatidecoupled compensation became available for the price drop that had been expected under the Mid Term Review.

As energy costs rose and the development of the biofuels sector continued, a surge in farm i2008 this offset the benefits for producers that the initial increase in dairy prices provided.

The next stage in the process saw a negative reaction in consumer and food ingredient demand to the increase in 2008.

Dairy product consumption per capita dropped around the world as consumers increasingly sought out value by buying cheaper products and smaller packets and by reducing domestic food waste through better monitoring of use by dates.

The economic and financial crisis which began to emerge in mid added further complexity to the dairy market picture.

As income growth stalled in the face of recession, dairy product consumption contracted and global dairy prices fell second half of 2008

Outlook for the short to medium term

The report focuses on the global dairy product production and consumption outlook and how this is likely to European Union

In spite of the prescharacterized by an excess of production over consumption.

In 2008 EU milk self Third country imports are small relative to total consumption and are limited by tariffs barriers, which protect the EU market and allow internal EU prices to exceed prices on the world market.

Nevertheless, special import arrangements allow for a range of imports into the EU by other dairy exportersbutter, 4,000 tonnes of cheese for processing and cheddar, all at reduced tariffs.

Australia has 500 tonnes of cheese for processing and cheddar also at reduced tariffscheddar, again at reduced tathere are several noncovering 11,360 tonnes of butter69,000 tonnes of skimmed milk powder

There are numerous bilaterother countries, normally at zero duties.

)23Page (



World milk production has fallen since 2005, with unfavourable weather impacting production in Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and Ukraine, while some countries also placed restriction on exports to world markets

means of dampening domestic food price inflation. On the demand side, strong global consumption growth had been a consistent trend in dairy markets in the current decade. Rapid economic growth in developing economies and in crude oil exporting

stimulated demand for dairy products. In addition, population growth, increased urbanization and the adoption of western eating habits have also boosted consumption.

dairy producers temporarily experienced an income boomcosts remained relatively stable while milk prices increased. In addition, decoupled compensation became available for the price drop that had been expected under the Mid Term Review. As energy costs rose and the development of the biofuels sector continued, a surge in farm input prices followed and in the latter half of

this offset the benefits for producers that the initial increase in dairy

The next stage in the process saw a negative reaction in consumer and food ingredient demand to the increase in dairy prices over the course of

Dairy product consumption per capita dropped around the world as consumers increasingly sought out value by buying cheaper products and smaller packets and by reducing domestic food waste through better

use by dates. The economic and financial crisis which began to emerge in mid added further complexity to the dairy market picture. As income growth stalled in the face of recession, dairy product consumption contracted and global dairy prices fell dramatically in the

2008.

Outlook for the short to medium term

The report focuses on the global dairy product production and consumption outlook and how this is likely to evolve in the period to 2015.

In spite of the presence of milk production quotas, the EU dairy market is by an excess of production over consumption.

EU milk self-sufficiency was 109 per cent. Third country imports are small relative to total consumption and are

barriers, which protect the EU market and allow internal EU prices to exceed prices on the world market. Nevertheless, special import arrangements allow for a range of imports into the EU by other dairy exporters: New Zealand has 75,000

tonnes of cheese for processing and 7,000 tonnes of cheddar, all at reduced tariffs.

tonnes of cheese for processing and 3,711cheddar also at reduced tariffs, while Canada has 4,000 tonnes of cheddar, again at reduced tariffs. In addition to the above concessions, there are several non-country specific quotas for reduced import tariffs

tonnes of butter; 84,000 tonnes of assorted cheeses and tonnes of skimmed milk powder.

There are numerous bilateral trade arrangements between the EU and other countries, normally at zero duties.

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with unfavourable weather impacting production in Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and Ukraine, while some countries also placed restriction on exports to world markets

On the demand side, strong global consumption growth had been a

Rapid economic growth in developing economies and in crude oil exporting stimulated demand for dairy products. In addition, population

and the adoption of western eating habits

dairy producers temporarily experienced an income boom, as vely stable while milk prices increased. In addition,

decoupled compensation became available for the price drop that had

As energy costs rose and the development of the biofuels sector nput prices followed and in the latter half of

this offset the benefits for producers that the initial increase in dairy

The next stage in the process saw a negative reaction in consumer and dairy prices over the course of

Dairy product consumption per capita dropped around the world as consumers increasingly sought out value by buying cheaper products and smaller packets and by reducing domestic food waste through better

The economic and financial crisis which began to emerge in mid 2008,

As income growth stalled in the face of recession, dairy product dramatically in the

The report focuses on the global dairy product production and consumption

ence of milk production quotas, the EU dairy market is by an excess of production over consumption.

Third country imports are small relative to total consumption and are barriers, which protect the EU market and allow internal

Nevertheless, special import arrangements allow for a range of imports 75,000 tonnes of tonnes of

3,711 tonnes of tonnes of

riffs. In addition to the above concessions, country specific quotas for reduced import tariffs

tonnes of assorted cheeses and

al trade arrangements between the EU and



These cover cheese from Norway and South Africa as well as miscellaneous

concessions to Switzerland, Turkey and ACP countries.

Exports subsidies have been used by the EU

excess production to third countries at prices that are lower than internal EU

prices. Intervention is used at times of market weakness to remove additional

volumes from the market when consumption is depressed.

The Mid Term Review (MTR) of the CAP and the Health Check which

reduced the level of intervention support and set in train a process of milk

quota removal.

Some 40 per cent of the EU milk supply is used for cheese produc/on and a

further 30 per cent is used

These two product areas have been the drivers of growth in dairy

consump/on in the EU over the last decade. The remaining 30 per cent of EU

milk production is mainly used in the manufacture of butter, powders and

casein.

Due to higher than anticipated international demand, it has only been in the

la1er half of 2008 and into 2009 that producer prices have fallen below the

price levels that prevailed at the time of the MTR negotiations.

The decrease in producer milk prices in 200

monthly milk production around the EU.

In spite of the increases in the EU milk quota the monthly production profile

in the 2008/09 quota year is only slightly ahead of the 2008/09 quota level.

Weak domestic consumption and expo

extended intervention measures and a restoration of dairy export subsidies,

which had been set to zero by the EU Commission in 2007.

Within the EU the impact of the recession and the downturn in international

dairy prices is being felt at present and EU intervention stocks are building.

EU bu1er stocks at almost 80,00 tones are equivalent to about 4 per cent of

EU annual produc/on, while EU skimmed milk powder stocks at 250,000

tonnes are close to 30 per cent of annual E

The impact of intervention purchases and export

term is to prevent an even greater decline in EU producer milk prices.

However, stockpiled intervention products have to be released to the market

at some future point.

The EU Commission's selling off strategy for these stocks will influence

market prices over the short term.

The short term outlook for the EU dairy sector is that production will be

below milk quota in 2009/10, that stocks will con/nu

rest of calendar year 2009, and that any recovery in EU prices is likely to be

very gradual.

The presence of substantial intervention stocks will delay the recovery in EU

prices, even when international prices begin to rise.

Depending on the supply response to the current low prices this situation

may persist into 2010.

)24Page (




concessions to Switzerland, Turkey and ACP countries.

Exports subsidies have been used by the EU to make it possible to export



volumes from the market when consumption is depressed.

Review (MTR) of the CAP and the Health Check which



further 30 per cent is used in fresh dairy products.




higher than anticipated international demand, it has only been in the



The decrease in producer milk prices in 2008/09 has had an impact on

monthly milk production around the EU.



Weak domestic consumption and exports in 2008 and 2009 have led to


which had been set to zero by the EU Commission in 2007.


is being felt at present and EU intervention stocks are building.



tonnes are close to 30 per cent of annual EU produc/on (August 2009).

The impact of intervention purchases and export subsidization



some future point.


market prices over the short term.


below milk quota in 2009/10, that stocks will con/nue to feature through the



prices, even when international prices begin to rise.

ending on the supply response to the current low prices this situation

may persist into 2010.

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to make it possible to export



Review (MTR) of the CAP and the Health Check which followed






higher than anticipated international demand, it has only been in the



8/09 has had an impact on



rts in 2008 and 2009 have led to



is being felt at present and EU intervention stocks are building.



U produc/on (August 2009).

over the short





e to feature through the



ending on the supply response to the current low prices this situation



A higher than average annual reduction in the EU dairy cow herd could tighten supplies, but it is not clear for how long producers in financial difficulty will try to persevere in the current downturn. To some extent this will depend on their own resolve, but the willingness of banks to advance credit in a tight cashflow situation will also be a consideration.

Projected Evolution of EU Milk Production

Projections point to a decrease in milk production in the short term (although possibly less than suggested in the OECD projections above) followed by a medium term recovery, but prices are likely to be weaker than the levels projected in advance of the econom

Over the period to improve and EU milk production should keep pace with the annual milk quota increases agreed in the Health Check.

The trend of declining milk production in southern Europe andmaintenance of production at quota levels in much of northern Europe will continue.

Growth in EU cheese and fresh product consumption, the drivers of growth in the EU dairy sector, will be weak due to lower income growth prospects. EU dairy export commay find it politically difficult to eliminate export subsidies.

The European Commission view is that the elimination of export subsidies is a realistic objective as the EU butter surplus will decline ovto 2015 due to lower levels of butter production and greater production of cheese and higher value added products. This perspective is consistent with a view that intervention and export subsidies will not be required in the future.

However, this view of how the EU market will evolve is not consistent with the opinion of some market experts who consider that the EU butter surplus will continue into the future, as EU butter production will not decline to the extent envisaged by the European Co

The basis for this view is an expectation of

due to the increased production of lower fat dairy products in the EU.

)25Page (



A higher than average annual reduction in the EU dairy cow herd could tighten supplies, but it is not clear for how long producers in financial

try to persevere in the current downturn. To some extent this will depend on their own resolve, but the willingness of banks to advance credit in a tight cashflow situation will also be a consideration.

Projected Evolution of EU Milk Production

ections point to a decrease in milk production in the short term (although possibly less than suggested in the OECD projections above) followed by a medium term recovery, but prices are likely to be weaker than the levels projected in advance of the economic crisis. Over the period to 2015, EU milk production should recover as prices improve and EU milk production should keep pace with the annual milk quota increases agreed in the Health Check. The trend of declining milk production in southern Europe andmaintenance of production at quota levels in much of northern Europe will

Growth in EU cheese and fresh product consumption, the drivers of growth in the EU dairy sector, will be weak due to lower income growth prospects. EU dairy export competitiveness will need to recover by 2013may find it politically difficult to eliminate export subsidies.

The European Commission view is that the elimination of export subsidies is a realistic objective as the EU butter surplus will decline ov

due to lower levels of butter production and greater production of cheese and higher value added products. This perspective is consistent with a view that intervention and export subsidies will not be required in

this view of how the EU market will evolve is not consistent with the opinion of some market experts who consider that the EU butter surplus will continue into the future, as EU butter production will not decline to the extent envisaged by the European Commission.

The basis for this view is an expectation of increased availability of butter fat


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A higher than average annual reduction in the EU dairy cow herd could tighten supplies, but it is not clear for how long producers in financial

try to persevere in the current downturn. To some extent this will depend on their own resolve, but the willingness of banks to advance credit in a tight cashflow situation will also be a consideration.

ections point to a decrease in milk production in the short term (although possibly less than suggested in the OECD projections above) followed by a medium term recovery, but prices are likely to be weaker

EU milk production should recover as prices

improve and EU milk production should keep pace with the annual milk

The trend of declining milk production in southern Europe and the maintenance of production at quota levels in much of northern Europe will

Growth in EU cheese and fresh product consumption, the drivers of growth in the EU dairy sector, will be weak due to lower income growth prospects.

2013 or the EU

The European Commission view is that the elimination of export subsidies is a realistic objective as the EU butter surplus will decline over the period

due to lower levels of butter production and greater production of cheese and higher value added products. This perspective is consistent with a view that intervention and export subsidies will not be required in

this view of how the EU market will evolve is not consistent with the opinion of some market experts who consider that the EU butter surplus will continue into the future, as EU butter production will not

mmission.

increased availability of butter fat




United States

In general, import barriers have limited dairy trade with the US. To a lextent the US has been more or less self sufficient in dairy products and has not traditionally had a sizeable exportable surplus.

However, a characteristic of US dairy markets over the last four or five years has been that production has grown at a consumption.

The growth in US dairy consumption has been running at about one per cent per annum, while production has grown by

This has created an exportable milk surplus of around three to five million tonnes of milk.

The origins of the US dairy export surplus were high margins as illustrated in the high US income over feed cost (IOFC) on dairy farms which prompted strong growth in US milk production.

It is important to note also that the US dairy exports to thare less reliant on export subsidies than are dairy exports from the EU.

The recent weakness of the US dollar relative to the currencies of other key exporters has aided the competitiveness of US dairy exports.

The farm scale of US milk p While the average herd size is herds in excess of

At the current rate of progress just of US milk production.

The emergence of these large operations suggests that this may now be the most economic means of producing milk in the US.

The expansion of large scale operations may be constrained in the future by environmental concerns, or a lack of access to water or the unavailability of low cost labour.

In reaction to the current low level of milk prices, the US government has subsidised exports and has announced that it will raise US support prices from August through to October

Evolution of US Milk Production

)26Page (



In general, import barriers have limited dairy trade with the US. To a lextent the US has been more or less self sufficient in dairy products and has not traditionally had a sizeable exportable surplus. However, a characteristic of US dairy markets over the last four or five years has been that production has grown at a faster rate than

The growth in US dairy consumption has been running at about one per while production has grown by 2.5 per cent per annum

This has created an exportable milk surplus of around three to five million

The origins of the US dairy export surplus were high margins as illustrated in the high US income over feed cost (IOFC) on dairy farms which prompted strong growth in US milk production.

It is important to note also that the US dairy exports to the world market are less reliant on export subsidies than are dairy exports from the EU. The recent weakness of the US dollar relative to the currencies of other key exporters has aided the competitiveness of US dairy exports.

The farm scale of US milk production has been growing rapidly. While the average herd size is 120 cows, the emergence of large scale herds in excess of 2,000 cows continues. At the current rate of progress just 500 farms will soon produce one third of US milk production.

gence of these large operations suggests that this may now be the most economic means of producing milk in the US. The expansion of large scale operations may be constrained in the future by environmental concerns, or a lack of access to water or the

ailability of low cost labour. In reaction to the current low level of milk prices, the US government has subsidised exports and has announced that it will raise US support prices from August through to October 2009.

Evolution of US Milk Production

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In general, import barriers have limited dairy trade with the US. To a large extent the US has been more or less self sufficient in dairy products and

However, a characteristic of US dairy markets over the last four or five faster rate than

The growth in US dairy consumption has been running at about one per per cent per annum.

This has created an exportable milk surplus of around three to five million

The origins of the US dairy export surplus were high margins as illustrated in the high US income over feed cost (IOFC) on dairy farms which

e world market are less reliant on export subsidies than are dairy exports from the EU. The recent weakness of the US dollar relative to the currencies of other key exporters has aided the competitiveness of US dairy exports.

roduction has been growing rapidly. the emergence of large scale

farms will soon produce one third

gence of these large operations suggests that this may now be

The expansion of large scale operations may be constrained in the future by environmental concerns, or a lack of access to water or the

In reaction to the current low level of milk prices, the US government has subsidised exports and has announced that it will raise US support prices



The short term dairy outlook in the US is not good from a US dairy farming perspective and the consensus is that US production will contract slightly in 2009 and 2010

The outlook over the medium term will depend on a recovery in milk prices and affordable

More modest production growth of the period to 2015for consumption on the home market.

Exchange rate movements will impact on international compeand the weak outlook for the US dollar will create an environment to support US dairy exports.

Australia

There is a strong view that the recovery in the Australian dairy sector will be very weak.

The importance of access to water for the Austrbe understated.

Drought conditions have been an ongoing problem for producers in Australia over the last decade.

Access to irrigation water has become a key concern and has affected both yields and herd investment decisions in A

In Northern Victoria, urban areas are taking precedence over agriculture and water allocations are being redirected to towns in the region.

Water stocks in the Murrayrights will continue to be restrict

Estimates suggest that it may take a full decade to replenish these water reserves.

Milk production in Australia has now begun to show a recovery for the first time in a number of yearsexports remain sig

Drought conditions have caused some producers to exit and many of those that remain have reduced their herd size.

Projections suggest that milk production in Australia will not recover to its 2002 peak until 2015

New Zealand

New Zealand (NZ) per cent of its milk production being exported.

New Zealand production has not been affected to the same degree as Australia, but adverse weather conditions still demuch as three per cent in the on export capacity.

NZ milk production recovered well in the year eight per cent ahead of the

Commentators expecmedium term.

This growth will be driven on the one hand by increasing yields, through increased feed supplementation, while farm conversions to dairying from sheep finishing on the South Island will cfor dairy cows.

)27Page (



he short term dairy outlook in the US is not good from a US dairy farming perspective and the consensus is that US production will contract slightly

. The outlook over the medium term will depend on a recovery in milk prices and affordable feed costs. More modest production growth of 5 to 6 million tonnes is achievable in

2015 and this will be mainly channelled to cheese production for consumption on the home market. Exchange rate movements will impact on international compeand the weak outlook for the US dollar will create an environment to support US dairy exports.

There is a strong view that the recovery in the Australian dairy sector will

The importance of access to water for the Australian dairy sector cannot

Drought conditions have been an ongoing problem for producers in Australia over the last decade. Access to irrigation water has become a key concern and has affected both yields and herd investment decisions in Australia. In Northern Victoria, urban areas are taking precedence over agriculture and water allocations are being redirected to towns in the region. Water stocks in the Murray-Darling Basin remain low and water access rights will continue to be restricted. Estimates suggest that it may take a full decade to replenish these water

Milk production in Australia has now begun to show a recovery for the first time in a number of years, up two percent in 2008/09, but the countryexports remain significantly below those of a decade ago. Drought conditions have caused some producers to exit and many of those that remain have reduced their herd size. Projections suggest that milk production in Australia will not recover to its

2015.

) is the largest dairy exporter in the world, per cent of its milk production being exported. New Zealand production has not been affected to the same degree as Australia, but adverse weather conditions still depressed production by as much as three per cent in the 2007/08 milk year, with a resultant impact on export capacity. NZ milk production recovered well in the 2008/09 year and finished the year eight per cent ahead of the 2007/08 year. Commentators expect NZ production to continue to grow over the short to

This growth will be driven on the one hand by increasing yields, through increased feed supplementation, while farm conversions to dairying from sheep finishing on the South Island will continue to provide additional land

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he short term dairy outlook in the US is not good from a US dairy farming perspective and the consensus is that US production will contract slightly

The outlook over the medium term will depend on a recovery in milk

million tonnes is achievable in and this will be mainly channelled to cheese production

Exchange rate movements will impact on international competitiveness and the weak outlook for the US dollar will create an environment to

There is a strong view that the recovery in the Australian dairy sector will

alian dairy sector cannot

Drought conditions have been an ongoing problem for producers in

Access to irrigation water has become a key concern and has affected both

In Northern Victoria, urban areas are taking precedence over agriculture and water allocations are being redirected to towns in the region.

Darling Basin remain low and water access

Estimates suggest that it may take a full decade to replenish these water

Milk production in Australia has now begun to show a recovery for the first but the country's

Drought conditions have caused some producers to exit and many of those

Projections suggest that milk production in Australia will not recover to its

, with over 95

New Zealand production has not been affected to the same degree as pressed production by as with a resultant impact

year and finished the

t NZ production to continue to grow over the short to

This growth will be driven on the one hand by increasing yields, through increased feed supplementation, while farm conversions to dairying from

ontinue to provide additional land



At present dairy cow numbers are falling on the North Island. The average annual rate of NZ milk production growth since per cent.

However, it is considered that expansion will bdecade than in the current decade and that production growth rates will be lower as a result.

Consequently growth of term with growth easing back to

Given the grass based production system in NZ, weather can be expected to exert an impact on production, which will add further variability around these average annual growth rates.

While the NZ milk production system retains its very low cost, grass based focus, there is evidence of a trend towards increased concentrate feed and

In this context, milk and feed price relativities will become more important and this may have negative implicaelements of the NZ dairy sector in periods when milk prices are low.

In international trade terms, exchange rate movements are of critical importance for the New Zealand dairy sector.

The NZ dollar has appreciated by almosince the beginning of

This has impacted on the competitiveness of the country's exports and further depressed world dairy price when expressed in NZ dollars terms.

Overall, barring adverse weather, it would seemmaintain its position as the leading dairy exporter. Export growth will continue, albeit at a declining rate.

South America

South America is growing in importance as a dairy exporting region. Aside from the US, over the last five ythe largest growth in net exports of dairy products.

When South American dairy processors seek to export further afield, their export market tends to be Africa rather than Asia.

In turn this puts South American daiEU dairy exports to markets in Africa. South American dairy exports are less likely to compete directly with New Zealand exports to dairy markets in Asia.

Brazil

Traditionally Brazil was a net importer of dairy produexports have grown through the decade and Brazil has had a net export position in dairy products since

Whether Brazil continues to increase its net exports will depend not alone on its production growth, but also on the expansioconsumption.

Economic growth in Brazil will occur at a higher rate than in more developed economies and this will mean that consumption growth should be strong.

Reduced income inequality and the growth in the size of the Brazilian middle class should also aid the growth in the consumption of dairy products. Some projections indicate that the production growth will accelerate further in the period to to 2000 is possible

)28Page (



At present dairy cow numbers are falling on the North Island. The average annual rate of NZ milk production growth since 1990 has been about four

However, it is considered that expansion will be more costly in the coming decade than in the current decade and that production growth rates will be lower as a result. Consequently growth of 3 percent per annum is possible over the short term with growth easing back to 1 percent per annum by 2015iven the grass based production system in NZ, weather can be expected

to exert an impact on production, which will add further variability around these average annual growth rates. While the NZ milk production system retains its very low cost, grass based focus, there is evidence of a trend towards increased utilizationconcentrate feed and fertilizer and this is impacting on production costs. In this context, milk and feed price relativities will become more important and this may have negative implications for the resilience of some elements of the NZ dairy sector in periods when milk prices are low.In international trade terms, exchange rate movements are of critical importance for the New Zealand dairy sector. The NZ dollar has appreciated by almost 20 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of 2009. This has impacted on the competitiveness of the country's exports and further depressed world dairy price when expressed in NZ dollars terms.Overall, barring adverse weather, it would seem that New Zealand will maintain its position as the leading dairy exporter. Export growth will continue, albeit at a declining rate.

South America is growing in importance as a dairy exporting region. Aside from the US, over the last five years Brazil and Argentina have recorded the largest growth in net exports of dairy products. When South American dairy processors seek to export further afield, their export market tends to be Africa rather than Asia. In turn this puts South American dairy exports in direct competition with EU dairy exports to markets in Africa. South American dairy exports are less likely to compete directly with New Zealand exports to dairy markets

Traditionally Brazil was a net importer of dairy products. Brazilian dairy exports have grown through the decade and Brazil has had a net export position in dairy products since 2004. Whether Brazil continues to increase its net exports will depend not alone on its production growth, but also on the expansion of Brazilian dairy

Economic growth in Brazil will occur at a higher rate than in more developed economies and this will mean that consumption growth should

Reduced income inequality and the growth in the size of the Brazilian iddle class should also aid the growth in the consumption of dairy

Some projections indicate that the production growth will accelerate further in the period to 2015 and by then a doubling of production relative

is possible.

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At present dairy cow numbers are falling on the North Island. The average has been about four

e more costly in the coming decade than in the current decade and that production growth rates will be

percent per annum is possible over the short 2015.

iven the grass based production system in NZ, weather can be expected to exert an impact on production, which will add further variability around

While the NZ milk production system retains its very low cost, grass based utilization of

and this is impacting on production costs. In this context, milk and feed price relativities will become more important

tions for the resilience of some elements of the NZ dairy sector in periods when milk prices are low. In international trade terms, exchange rate movements are of critical

per cent against the US dollar

This has impacted on the competitiveness of the country's exports and further depressed world dairy price when expressed in NZ dollars terms.

that New Zealand will maintain its position as the leading dairy exporter. Export growth will

South America is growing in importance as a dairy exporting region. Aside ears Brazil and Argentina have recorded

When South American dairy processors seek to export further afield, their

ry exports in direct competition with EU dairy exports to markets in Africa. South American dairy exports are less likely to compete directly with New Zealand exports to dairy markets

cts. Brazilian dairy exports have grown through the decade and Brazil has had a net export

Whether Brazil continues to increase its net exports will depend not alone n of Brazilian dairy

Economic growth in Brazil will occur at a higher rate than in more developed economies and this will mean that consumption growth should

Reduced income inequality and the growth in the size of the Brazilian iddle class should also aid the growth in the consumption of dairy

Some projections indicate that the production growth will accelerate and by then a doubling of production relative



Argentina

Government intervention has led to a loss of confidence among producers in Argentina and this has resulted in a stagnation in milk production in recent years.

High international prices boosted exports in This prompted inflationary pressureto the introduction of export taxes by the government.

Over the medium term production growth is projected to reallowing milk production to increase by 2015.

However, strong grwill absorb much of this increased milk production.

Argentina should be able to maintain its current level of net exportsperiod to 2015, but may not become a bigger player on the world market.

China

GDP in China is now ten times the level it was in market has become a major element of global consumption growth in dairy products over the last decade.

By 2015 Chinese whole milk powder consumption could reach almost times the level in

The expansion of Chinese milk production over the last decade has been extremely rapid. While it has not matched the pace of growth in dairy product consumption, it has meant that only some of the growth in Chinese dairy consumption has stimproducts.

Over the medium term Chinese imports of cheese and skimmed milk powder will increase, while the growth in Chinese exports of whole milk powder will continue.

The recent melamine contamination of infant formula increasing infant formula imports, and these import volumes should be maintained until such time as consumers' faith in indigenously produced infant formula is restored.

India

India is the world's largest milk producer and in absolute terin milk production over the medium term is projected to considerably exceed that of any other major milk producing region.

Animal productivity in India's traditional milk production regions continues to improve. However, consumption growth inthis increased milk production due to growing population, additional demand for value added products and increased incomes levels among the middle classes.

India's net trade in dairy products is unlikely to change considerably othe medium term.

Russia Commentators agree that milk production in Russia will recover over the medium term. Low yielding cows are being replaced by higher yielding imported stock and considerable government investment is being made in a new dairy cprogramme.

)29Page (



Government intervention has led to a loss of confidence among producers in Argentina and this has resulted in a stagnation in milk production in

High international prices boosted exports in 2007 and 2008. This prompted inflationary pressure in the domestic dairy market and led to the introduction of export taxes by the government. Over the medium term production growth is projected to re-allowing milk production to increase by 20 per cent over the period to

However, strong growth in cheese and whole milk powder consumption will absorb much of this increased milk production. Argentina should be able to maintain its current level of net exports

period to 2015, but may not become a bigger player on the world market.

GDP in China is now ten times the level it was in 1980 and the Chinese market has become a major element of global consumption growth in dairy products over the last decade.

Chinese whole milk powder consumption could reach almost evel in 1998.

The expansion of Chinese milk production over the last decade has been extremely rapid. While it has not matched the pace of growth in dairy product consumption, it has meant that only some of the growth in Chinese dairy consumption has stimulated increased imports of dairy

Over the medium term Chinese imports of cheese and skimmed milk powder will increase, while the growth in Chinese exports of whole milk powder will continue. The recent melamine contamination of infant formula in China led to increasing infant formula imports, and these import volumes should be maintained until such time as consumers' faith in indigenously produced infant formula is restored.

India is the world's largest milk producer and in absolute terin milk production over the medium term is projected to considerably exceed that of any other major milk producing region. Animal productivity in India's traditional milk production regions continues to improve. However, consumption growth in India will absorb much of this increased milk production due to growing population, additional demand for value added products and increased incomes levels among the

India's net trade in dairy products is unlikely to change considerably othe medium term.

Commentators agree that milk production in Russia will recover over the medium term. Low yielding cows are being replaced by higher yielding imported stock and considerable government investment is being made in a new dairy c

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Government intervention has led to a loss of confidence among producers in Argentina and this has resulted in a stagnation in milk production in

. in the domestic dairy market and led

-emerge, per cent over the period to

owth in cheese and whole milk powder consumption

Argentina should be able to maintain its current level of net exports in the

period to 2015, but may not become a bigger player on the world market.

and the Chinese market has become a major element of global consumption growth in

Chinese whole milk powder consumption could reach almost 4

The expansion of Chinese milk production over the last decade has been extremely rapid. While it has not matched the pace of growth in dairy product consumption, it has meant that only some of the growth in

ulated increased imports of dairy

Over the medium term Chinese imports of cheese and skimmed milk powder will increase, while the growth in Chinese exports of whole milk

in China led to increasing infant formula imports, and these import volumes should be maintained until such time as consumers' faith in indigenously produced

India is the world's largest milk producer and in absolute terms its growth in milk production over the medium term is projected to considerably

Animal productivity in India's traditional milk production regions continues India will absorb much of

this increased milk production due to growing population, additional demand for value added products and increased incomes levels among the

India's net trade in dairy products is unlikely to change considerably over

Commentators agree that milk production in Russia will recover over the medium term. Low yielding cows are being replaced by higher yielding imported stock and considerable government investment is being made in a new dairy cattle breeding



For food security reasons Russia would like to boost its self sufficiency in dairy products from just over 70target of 37 million tonnes has been set for whether this target will be achieved.

Global summary

Projected Milk Production Growth in Selected Regions

Russia and the other former Soviet republics (CIS) will remain the largest butter importers. Subwhole milk powder importing regions and imports are expected to grow substantially. Mexico, Algeria and China should increase their imports of skimmed milk powder. Imports of cheese by Russia and Mexico in particular should increase over the period.

External factors Weather:

Weather events will continue to contribute to dairy product price volatility. Energy prices and input prices:

Rising energy prices will have an impact on dairy production costs and dairy demand. Exchange rates:

Exchange rate movements will impact on export competitiveness. Macro economic and population growth:

The rate of recovery in dairy demand will depend on the recovery in global economic growth.

)30Page (



For food security reasons Russia would like to boost its self sufficiency in dairy 70 per cent at present to 95 per cent. A milk production

million tonnes has been set for 2012. There are mixed opinions as to whether this target will be achieved.

Projected Milk Production Growth in Selected Regions 2009

Russia and the other former Soviet republics (CIS) will remain the largest butter importers. Sub-Saharan Africa and Algeria will remain the main whole milk powder importing regions and imports are expected to grow substantially. Mexico, Algeria and China should increase their imports of skimmed milk powder. Imports of cheese by Russia and Mexico in

ld increase over the period.

Weather events will continue to contribute to dairy product price volatility.


Rising energy prices will have an impact on dairy production costs and dairy

Exchange rate movements will impact on export competitiveness.



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For food security reasons Russia would like to boost its self sufficiency in dairy A milk production ed opinions as to

2009 to 2018

Russia and the other former Soviet republics (CIS) will remain the largest a and Algeria will remain the main

whole milk powder importing regions and imports are expected to grow substantially. Mexico, Algeria and China should increase their imports of skimmed milk powder. Imports of cheese by Russia and Mexico in

Weather events will continue to contribute to dairy product price volatility.

Rising energy prices will have an impact on dairy production costs and dairy




Agricultural policy and trade policy

Policy issues remain to be decided and will impact on the outlook for the dairy sector. Environmental policies and consumer preferences:

Environmental concerns will exert an increasing influence on agriculture, including the dairy sector. Renationalisation of dairy demand:

The renationalization of dairy demand would have an adverse impact on dairy exports. Nutrition and health agenda:

The health benefits of dairy product consumption may be undermined by legislation on labelling. Animal welfare concerns:


)31Page (




Policy issues remain to be decided and will impact on the outlook for the dairy

Environmental policies and consumer preferences:


enationalisation of dairy demand:




l welfare concerns:


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Policy issues remain to be decided and will impact on the outlook for the dairy




Animal welfare concerns related to food production continue to grow among consumers in the EU. It is not easy to consider how these concerns will evolve or



l dairy trade Internationa

International dairy trade is primarily in butter, cheese and dry milk powders, with some trade in fluid milk products, ice cream, yogurt and dry whey products (ERS).

The United States produced 86,179 metric tonthan any other individual country.

Other major producers of milk in 27 countries of the European Union produced 134,34644,100 MT; ChinaWhich produced 32,500 Produced 15,141 MT

Nearly 11 percent of the milk and dairy products produced in the United States were shipped overseas in

U.S. exports of dairy products were valued at billion, up 26 percent from the previous yearvolume totaled 1.4(FAS).

The United Stated imported products in 2008, previous year. The products were valued at $3.1billion, an increase of

Like last year, the United States posted a trade surplus of dairy products; the value of exports totaled $700,000 more than the value of imports (FAS). November

New Zealand, Australia, and the EU are leading dairy exportin

countries/regions.

Low-cost producers in Australia and New Zealand are the principal suppliers of cheese and dry milk products to Asian markets, while subsidized EU producers focus on nearby markets in Africa, the Middle East, and Russia and export sigAmerica

As diets around the world have changed, so, too, has global demand for milk and dairy products.

The mix of products demanded, however, varies by region or country and the stage of a region’s economic developmen

The largest consumers of dairy products are high

countries, such as the U.S., EU, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.

Middle-income developing countries use large quantities of dry milk powders for fluid milk reconstitution programs foods.

In low-income developing countries, demand is insignificant outside of food aid programs.

)32Page (



l dairy trade 2008

International dairy trade is primarily in butter, cheese and dry milk powders, with some trade in fluid milk products, ice cream, yogurt and dry whey

The United States produced 190 billion pounds, or metric tons (MT), of milk in 2008, more

than any other individual country. Other major producers of milk in 2008 included the countries of the European Union (EU), which

134,346 MT; India, which produced China, which produced 36,700 MT; Russia,

32,500 MT; and New Zealand, which MT (FAS 2009).

percent of the milk and dairy products produced in the United States were shipped overseas in 2008 (USDEC).

exports of dairy products were valued at $3.8 percent from the previous year, and 1.4 million MT, up 13 percent.

The United Stated imported 730,167 MT of dairy , a decline of 9.5 percent from the

previous year. The products were valued at an increase of 9 percent.

Like last year, the United States posted a trade surplus of dairy products; the value of exports

more than the value of imports November 2009

New Zealand, Australia, and the EU are leading dairy exportin

cost producers in Australia and New Zealand are the principal suppliers of cheese and dry milk products to Asian markets, while subsidized EU producers focus on nearby markets in Africa, the Middle East, and Russia and export significant amounts of cheese to North

As diets around the world have changed, so, too, has global demand for milk and dairy products. The mix of products demanded, however, varies by region or country and the stage of a region’s economic development.

The largest consumers of dairy products are high-income developed


income developing countries use large quantities of dry milk powders for fluid milk reconstitution programs and as ingredients in other

income developing countries, demand is insignificant outside of food aid programs.

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percent of the milk and dairy products produced in the United

New Zealand, Australia, and the EU are leading dairy exporting

cost producers in Australia and New Zealand are the principal suppliers of cheese and dry milk products to Asian markets, while subsidized EU producers focus on nearby markets in Africa, the Middle

nificant amounts of cheese to North

As diets around the world have changed, so, too, has global demand for

The mix of products demanded, however, varies by region or country and

income developed


income developing countries use large quantities of dry milk and as ingredients in other

income developing countries, demand is insignificant outside of



These changes in global dairy markets are taking place in the context of significant market intervention by some of the world’sproduct importers and exporters.

Many countries maintain border and domestic support measures of various types for their dairy sectors

Dairy policies around the world are changing slowly, primarily as a result of the Uruguay Round of trad

The dominant border measures now in place are tariffs or tariffsystems, and they are at the core of many issues surrounding market access.

Domestic dairy policies include mainly price support and institutionalized pricing systems, policies that have been called trade distorting in many circles.

International Dairy Markets

International dairy trade is primarily in butter, cheese and dry milk

powders, with some trade in fluid milk products, ice cream, yogurt and

dry whey products.

The United States produced

(MT), of milk in 2008 more than any other individual country.

Other major producers of milk in

European Union (EU),

India, which produced

China, which produced

Russia, which produced

New Zealand, which produced

Milk production in Brazil, has been expanding at an average of over 6 percent annually 2008 period and is set to grow by Exports in 2009 are also anticipated to expand due to flat domestic consumption and increased competitiveness resulting from the expected further devaluation of the Brazilian currency.

)33Page (



These changes in global dairy markets are taking place in the context of significant market intervention by some of the world’s leading dairy product importers and exporters. Many countries maintain border and domestic support measures of various types for their dairy sectors.

Dairy policies around the world are changing slowly, primarily as a result of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The dominant border measures now in place are tariffs or tariffsystems, and they are at the core of many issues surrounding market

Domestic dairy policies include mainly price support and institutionalized ems, policies that have been called trade distorting in many

International Dairy Markets Outlook



The United States produced 190 billion pounds, or 86,179 metric tons

more than any other individual country.

Other major producers of milk in 2008 included the 27 countries of the

, which produced 134,346 MT.

which produced 44,100 MT;

which produced 36,700 MT;

which produced 32,500 MT; and

which produced 15,141 MT (FAS 2009).

Milk production in Brazil, has been expanding at an percent annually over the 2006-

period and is set to grow by 5 percent in 2009.

are also anticipated to expand due to flat domestic consumption and increased competitiveness resulting from the expected further devaluation of the Brazilian currency.

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These changes in global dairy markets are taking place in the context of leading dairy

Many countries maintain border and domestic support measures of various

Dairy policies around the world are changing slowly, primarily as a result

The dominant border measures now in place are tariffs or tariff-rate quota systems, and they are at the core of many issues surrounding market

Domestic dairy policies include mainly price support and institutionalized ems, policies that have been called trade distorting in many



metric tons

more than any other individual country.

countries of the



Dairy outlook Cow numbers Milk yields Production Total milk – market sales – manufacturing Butter Cheese Whole milk powder Skim milk powder Farm-gate milk price Value of exports World prices Butter Cheese Skim milk powder Whole milk powder

COWS MILK: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES

)34Page (



2007-08 ’000 1 640

L/cow 5 624 ML 9 223

ML 2 188 ML 7 035

kt 128 kt 359 kt 142 kt 164

Ac/L 49.6 A$m 2 763

US$/t 4 027 US$/t 5 073 US$/t 4 204 US$/t 4 562

SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1,000 Metric Tons

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2008-09 1 645 5 702

9 380 2 240 7 140 150 348 141 208 40.0

2 724

2 483 3 271 2 329 2 548

Metric Tons



CHEESE PRODUCTION:

Metric Tons

)35(Page



: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES

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SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 1/ 1,000



BUTTER PRODUCTION:

Metric Tons

)36Page (



: SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES

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SUMMARY FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES 3/ 1,000



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global dairy market report 2010

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