global economic conditions · 2020. 8. 21. · money market spreads chart 15. 10-year government...

Globalization InstituteFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Updated December 2020

http://www.dallasfed.org/institute

Table of ContentsSpecial Section: COVID-19

Average Daily Percent Change in the Google Mobility Index in Major Advanced EconomiesOxford Stringency Index in Major Advanced EconomiesCOVID-19 Deaths Per Million in Major Advanced EconomiesCOVID-19 Tests Per Case in Major Advanced Economies

1. Indicators of Real ActivityChart 1. Global GDP GrowthChart 2. OECD Industrial ProductionChart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 5. Unemployment in OECD EconomiesChart 6. Volume of World Merchandise TradeChart 7. Volume of World Merchandise TradeChart 8. Baltic Dry Index

2. Inflation IndicatorsChart 9. Commodity PricesChart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI)Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI)

3. Money and Capital MarketsChart 14. Money Market SpreadsChart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies

4. Public FinancesChart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 19. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major Emerging EconomiesChart 20. General Government Gross Debt in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 21. General Government Gross Debt in Major Emerging Economies

5. Monetary PolicyChart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced

EconomiesChart 23. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging

EconomiesChart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies

6. U.S. External AccountsChart 26. U.S. Terms of TradeChart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs ValueChart 28. U.S. Current Account BalanceChart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. DollarChart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar

7. Current AnalysisChart 31. Global Current Account BalancesChart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies

Special Section: COVID-19



SOURCE: Google Mobility Index, https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.Globalization Institute

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Percent

7-Day Moving Average of the Google Mobility Index in Major Advanced Economies

U.S.

Euro Area

Japan

U.K.

Canada

NOTES: Categories from the Google Mobility Index included in the 7-day simple average are retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit stations, and workplaces. Data last updated December 11, 2020.


SOURCE: Hale, Thomas, Sam Webster, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, and Beatriz Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government. Data use policy: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY standard.


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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Oxford Stringency Index in Major Advanced Economies

U.S.

Euro Area

Japan

U.K.

Canada


SOURCES: Haver, John Hopkins. Globalization Institute


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Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

COVID-19 Cumulative Deaths Per Million in Major Advanced Economies

U.S.

Germany

Japan

U.K.

Canada


SOURCE: Our World in Data (OWID). Globalization Institute


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March April May June July August September October Nov

COVID-19 Tests Per Case in Major Advanced Economies

U.S.Euro AreaJapanU.K.Canada

NOTES: Data last updated December 11, 2020. COVID-19 tests per case is equal to the 7-day moving average of the number of tests divided by the number of cases per day.


Indicators of Real Activity



SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 1. Global GDP Growth

World (2020 Q3 = -2.0)

Advanced Economies (ex. U.S.) (2020 Q3 = -4.8)

Emerging Economies (2020 Q3 = 0.0)

U.S. (2020 Q3 = -2.91)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The advanced economies (ex. U.S.) aggregate includes the Euro Area, Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, South Korea, Switzerland and Sweden. The emerging economies aggregate includes China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, South Africa and Colombia. The world aggregate includes these countries, which make up approximately 80 percent of world GDP computed using purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP weights.


SOURCES: OECD; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


Last Observation: Sep = 108.0

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105

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115

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Index, 2005 = 100

Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production

NOTE: Countries included in the industrial production index are all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States).


Globalization InstituteFederal Reserve Bank of DallasSOURCES: JPMorgan; Bloomberg

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Index

Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index

Manufacturing (Nov = 53.7)Services (Nov = 52.2)Composite (Nov = 53.1)

NOTE: This index measures purchasing managers' perspectives of current business conditions. An index value greater than 50 indicates economic expansion from the previous month, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.


SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, EUROSTAT; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Percent

U.S. (Nov = 6.7)Euro Area (Oct = 8.4)Japan (Oct = 3.1)U.K. (Aug = 4.6)Canada (Nov = 8.5)

Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies

NOTE: The chart plots harmonized unemployment data for the U.K.


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Percent

Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies



Last Observation: Oct = 7.1


SOURCES: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver AnalyticsGlobalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise TradeIndex, 2000 = 100

NOTE: This series includes data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and covers approximately 97 percent of total world trade. Trade volume is calculated as the arithmetic average of world export volumes and world import volumes.

Last Observation: Sep = 181.9


SOURCES: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver AnalyticsGlobalization Institute


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'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19

Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade

World (Sep = 179.8)Advanced Economies (Sep = 150.9)Emerging Economies (Sep = 308.4)

'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19


Index, 2000 = 100

NOTE: Import and export series include data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and cover approximately 97 percent of total world trade.

Imports Exports


SOURCES: Baltic Exchange; BloombergGlobalization Institute


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14,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index

NOTE: The Baltic Dry Index is a maritime shipping index that measures charter rates for shipping dry bulk commodities such as coal, grain and iron ore.

Last Observation: Dec 10 = 465

Index, 1/4/1985 = 1,000


Inflation Indicators



SOURCES: Goldman Sachs; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 9. Commodity Prices

Precious Metals (Dec 10 = 273.4)Agriculture and Livestock (Dec 10 = 120.9)Energy (Dec 10 = 75.2)Industrial Metals (Dec 10 = 90.3)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100




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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)

Headline Inflation (Sep = 1.9)Core Inflation (Sep = 0.3)

NOTE: The headline consumer price index (CPI) is the broadest measure of price changes consumers face in their day-to-day living expenses. The core CPI excludes energy and food prices.


SOURCES: Database of Global Economic Indicators; Haver Analytics.Globalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)


NOTES: Calculations are based on a representative sample of 40 countries. Aggregated using U.S. trade weights. Forecasts ofVenezuela are used in recent months due to lack of data. Shaded bars indicate global recessions (Grossman, Mack and Martínez-García (2015): "A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980-2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 46, pp. 170-185). Last updated June 2020.


SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, European Central Bank; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI)

U.S. (Nov = 1.2)Euro Area (Nov = -0.3)Japan (Oct = -0.4)U.K. (Oct = 0.7)Canada (Oct = 0.7)

Percent, Year/Year


SOURCES: National Statistical Offices; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI)

Brazil (Nov = 5.2)Russia (Nov = 4.4)India (Oct = 5.9)Indonesia (Nov = 1.6)China (Nov = -0.5)South Africa (Nov = 3.2)


Money and Capital Markets



SOURCES: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 14. Money Market Spreads

U.S. Dollar (Dec 10 = 15)Euro (Dec 10 = -5.1)Japanese Yen (Dec 10 = -6)U.K. Pound Sterling (Dec 10 = 0.8)

Basis Points

NOTE: The chart plots the spread, or difference, between 3-month interbank offered rates (Libor for the dollar, yen and pound sterling; Euribor for the euro) and the overnight index swap rate for each currency.


SOURCES: Financial Times, Reuters, Bank of Canada; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yieldsin Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (Dec 10 = 0.9)Euro Area (Dec 10 = -0.6)Japan (Dec 10 = 0.0)U.K. (Dec 09 = 0.3)Canada (Dec 09 = 0.8)

Percent


SOURCES: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (Dec 10 = 242)Euro Area (Dec 10 = 85)Japan (Dec 11 = 155)U.K. (Dec 10 = 107)Canada (Dec 10 = 141)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100

NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for the U.S, the EURO STOXX 50 Price Index for the Euro Area, the Nikkei 225 Average Index for Japan, the FTSE 100 Index for the U.K. and the S&P/TSX Composite Index for Canada.


SOURCES: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies

Brazil (Dec 10 = 274) Russia (Dec 10 = 78)India (Dec 11 = 340) Indonesia (Dec 11 = 333)China (Dec 11 = 117) South Africa (Dec 10 = 244)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100

NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Bovespa Index for Brazil, the RTS Index for Russia, the Bombay SENSEX for India, the Jakarta Composite for Indonesia, the New Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for China and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top 40 Index for South Africa.


Public Finances



Globalization InstituteFederal Reserve Bank of DallasSOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

U.S. (2019 = -6.3)Euro Area (2019 = -0.6)Japan (2019 = -3.3)U.K. (2019 = -2.2)Canada (2019 = -0.3)

Percent of GDP

NOTES: Data for 2020 are estimates; data for Japan 2019 is an estimate.



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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Percent of GDP

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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Percent of GDP

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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Percent of GDP

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Percent of GDP

Chart 19a. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

NOTES: Data for 2020 are estimates.

Brazil (2019 = -6.0) Russia (2019 = 1.9)

India (2019 = -8.2) Indonesia (2019 = -2.2)



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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Percent of GDP

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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Percent of GDP

Chart 19b. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

NOTE: Data for 2020 are estimates.

South Africa (2019 = -6.3)China (2019 = -6.3)


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt

U.S. (2019 = 106.2)Euro Area (2019 = 83.9)U.K. (2019 = 85.6)Canada (2019 = 87.5)

NOTES: Data for 2020 are estimates; data for Japan 2019 are estimates. .

Percent of GDP Percent of GDP

Japan (2019 = 237.7)

SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute




556065707580859095

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Chart 21a. General Government Gross Debt

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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Percent of GDP

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Percent of GDP


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Percent of GDP

Brazil (2019 = 91.6) Russia (2019 = 16.5)

India (2019 = 69.0) Indonesia (2019 = 30.3)



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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Percent of GDP

Chart 21b. General Government Gross Debt

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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Percent of GDP


China (2019 = 55.6) South Africa (2019 = 59.9)


Monetary Policy



SOURCES: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (Dec 10 = 0.125)

Euro Area (Dec 10 = 0.00)

Japan (Dec 10 = -0.10)

U.K. (Dec 10 = 0.10)

Canada (Dec 10 = 0.25)

Percent

NOTES: The chart plots the federal funds rate for the U.S., the main refinancing operation rate for the Euro Area, the base rate for the U.K., the overnight target rate for Canada and the uncollateralized overnight call rate for Japan applied until April 3, 2013, before the main operating policy target changed to expanding the monetary base. On February 16, 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopted negative interest rates applied to excess reserves that financial institutions hold at the BoJ. The Bank also introduced an interest rate target of around 0 percent for its 10-year government bond yields in September 2016.


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10152025

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

Chart 23a. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major EmergingEconomies

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10152025

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

NOTE: The Reserve Bank of India utilizes the repo rate to inject liquidity into the monetary system and the reverse repo rate to remove liquidity. On August 19, 2016, the Bank of Indonesia changed its policy rate from the BI rate to the 7-day reverse repo rate.

Bank of Indonesia Rate (Aug 2016 = 6.50)

Repo Rate (Dec 10 = 4.00)

Bank of Russia Key Rate (Dec 10 = 4.25)



Brazil Russia

India Indonesia

Overnight SELIC Target Rate (Dec 10 = 2.00)

Reverse Repo Rate (Dec 10 = 3.35)

7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (Dec 10 = 3.75)


1-Year Deposit Rate (Dec 10 = 1.50)



China South Africa

Central Bank Policy Rate (Dec 07 = 3.85)

Average Repo Rate (Dec 11 = 3.50)0

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02468

101214

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

Chart 23b. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major EmergingEconomies




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Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (Nov = 28.0)Euro Area (Oct = 9.7)Japan (Nov = 9.1)U.K. (Oct = 12.9)Canada (Sep = 17.4)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The chart plots MZM in the U.S, M2 in the Euro Area, Japan and Canada and M4 in the U.K.




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Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies

Brazil (Oct = 30.4)Russia (Oct = 16.2)India (Nov = 18.6)Indonesia (Oct = 12.5)China (Nov = 10.7)South Africa (Oct = 15.7)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The chart plots M2 for each country.


U.S. External Accounts



SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade

Terms of Trade (Oct = 102.5)

Terms of Trade (Excluding Oil) (Oct = 88.8)

Index, Jan. 1990 = 100

NOTE: U.S. terms of trade are calculated as the import price index/export price index.


SOURCES: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value

Bil. U.S. Dollars

NOTE: The chart plots the nominal trade balance in goods.

Last Observation: Oct = -80.4


SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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Chart 28. U.S. Current Account BalancePercent of GDP

NOTE: All values are nominal.

Last Observation: 2020 Q2 = -3.5


SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar

Nominal Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Nov = 108.7)U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Nov = 92.3)U.S. Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Nov = 134.1)

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100

NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease represents a depreciation.


SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar

Real Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Nov = 102.1)U.S.Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Nov = 105.3)U.S.Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Nov = 100.9)

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100

NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease represents a depreciation.


Current Analysis



SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances

USChinaJapanOthersOil ExportersGermany

Bil. U.S. Dollars

NOTE: Oil exporting countries are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The remaining countries not already listed for which there is data comprise "Others". Striped columns denote forecasts.


SOURCES: Reuters; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies

Greece (Dec 10 = 123)Ireland (Dec 10 = 30)Portugal (Dec 10 = 58)Spain (Dec 10 = 63)Italy (Dec 10 = 114)

Basis Points

NOTE: The chart shows the spread, or difference, in interest rates between 10-year government bonds for various countries and German 10-year government bonds.


global economic conditions · 2020. 8. 21. · money market spreads chart 15. 10-year government...

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