global electric vehicle outlook 2017mddb.apec.org/documents/2018/ewg/wksp1/18_ewg_wksp1_005.pdfnew...

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2018/EWG/WKSP1/005

Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017

Submitted by: IEA

APEC Electromobility WorkshopSantiago, Chile

1-2 February 2018

IEA © OECD/IEA 2017

Global EV Outlook 2017

Renske Schuitmaker

Santiago, 1 February 2018

Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)

•  Government-‐to-‐government forum comprising 14 economies

•  Canada, Chile, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Sweden, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the US

•  Currently co-‐chaired by Canada and China, and coordinated by the IEA

•  Released several analyIcal publicaIons (Global EV Outlook, City casebook)

•  Engaged stakeholders in high-‐level roundtables (CEM8 and Pilot City Forum in Beijing, June 2017)

•  Instrumental to mobilize acIon and commitments (Paris DeclaraIon on Electro-‐Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet DeclaraIon at COP22)

Ø In 2017, the EV30@30 Campaign was launched (aim for a 30% market share for EVs by 2030)

Global EV Outlook 2017 •  Annual EVI report dra[ed at IEA Ø  Data reporIng (EV stock, sales, EVSE, ba\ery

costs)

Ø  Policy analysis and TCO assessment

Ø  CO2 impact and role of EVs in low carbon scenarios (2030 Imeframe)

Ø  Insights on grid integraIon

•  Global EV Outlook 2018 released end of May

Why is electrification important?


1.   No tailpipe emissions (CO2 and air pollutants)



2. Carbon reducAon potenAal with low-‐carbon electricity mix




3. Energy efficiency 2 to 4 Imes more efficient than convenIonal car





4. Reducing oil dependency





4. Reducing oil dependency

Climate Public health Energy security

Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical

The global electric car fleet reached 2 million units in circulation in 2016, but growth of sales fell from 70% in 2015 to 40% in 2016, suggesting an increasing risk of falling off track

Global electric car fleet

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f veh

icles o

n the road (T

housands)

Others

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Norway

Japan

USA

China

New electric car registrations reached 750 000 units in 2016

95% of global electric car sales in 2016 took place in 10 economies, and 6 economies had a market share above 1%:China, France, Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom

Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales shares in selected economies, 2010-‐16

0%

5%

10%

15%

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25%

30%

35%

0

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China

United States

Norway

United Kingdo

m

France

Japan

Germany

Netherla

nds

Swed

en

Others

Market sha

re (2016)

New

electric ca

r registrations

(tho

usan

ds)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2016 market share

2016 BEV sales (%)

2016 PHEV sales (%)

Electric car uptake is strongly linked to changes in EV policies

Changes in electric car incentives, especially for vehicle purchase incentives, can have an immediate and sizeable impact on electric car sales and steer the market towards either BEV or PHEV preference.

BEV and PHEV changes in incenIves in a selecIon of economies, 2016

BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEVChina 75% 30% 257,000 79,000United States 22% 70% 86,731 72,885Norway ~ ↗ 6% 164% 29,520 20,660United Kingdom 4% 42% 10,509 27,403France 26% 36% 21,758 7,749Japan 48% -‐34% 15,461 9,390Germany -‐6% 20% 11,322 13,290Netherlands ~ ↘ 47% -‐50% 3,737 20,740Sweden ~ ↘ 0% 86% 2,951 10,464Canada 19% 147% 5,220 6,360Denmark -‐71% -‐49% 1,218 182Republic of Korea 75% -‐40% 5,099 164

↘~

~

~~~~

~

Economy2015 vs. 2016 policy developments

2015 vs. 2016 sales growth

2016 sales

~

EVSE deployment rates were higher than e-car adoption rates in 2016

Publicly accessible infrastructure is growing to support the emerging EV market, especially publicly accessible fast chargers. Developing the EVSE infrastructure is key to enabling EV uptake.

Global charging outlets, 2010-‐16

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year-‐on-‐year growth rate

Charging outlets (tho

usan

ds)

Private chargers

Publicly available fastchargers

Publicly available slowchargers

Growth rate of publiclyavailable fast chargers

Growth rate of publiclyaccessible slow chargers

Growth rate of privatechargers

Slow chargers: AC level 1 and 2 (<22kW) Fast chargers: AC 43kW, DC, CHAdeMO, Tesla Superchargers, inducIve chargers

E-mobility is also gaining ground in non-car modes; China leads the way

Low-Speed Electric Vehicles: ~4 million in China

Electric 2-wheelers: > 200 million, mainly in China. In other economies: ~200 000 in India, ~30 000 in the Netherlands, ~1 000 in the UK

Electric buses: city-level procurement plans announced globally China: already 350 000 in the fleet

Battery costs and range as key factors for the success of e-mobility

Battery costs and energy density progresses are expected to keep improving. This will help to lower adoption barriers.

EvoluIon of ba\ery energy density and cost, 2009-‐16, and future prospects

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2022 Potential

Battery en

ergy den

sity (Wh/L)

Battery cost (U

SD/kWh)

Conventional lithium ion

Advanced lithium ion

Beyond lithium ion

US DOE battery cost (BEV)

US DOE battery cost (PHEV)

Cost claimed by GM and Tesla (BEV)

GM battery cost target (BEV)

Tesla battery cost target (BEV)

US DOE battery cost target (PHEV)

US DOE energy density (PHEV)

US DOE energy density (BEV)

US DOE energy density target (PHEV)

EVs are essential for CO2 emissions reduction in the transport sector

If coupled to low-carbon power, the high energy efficiency of EVs offers prospects for substantial CO2 emissions reductions. This complements their air quality, energy security and noise reduction benefits.

On-‐road WTW CO2 emissions for various technologies by economy/region, RTS and 2DS, 2015 to 2030

0

50

100

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250

300

FRANCE UNITED STATES CHINA JAPAN EUROPE

gCO2/km

ICE gasoline

ICE gasoline hybrid

ICE diesel

PHEV -‐ 2DSimprovement

PHEV -‐ RTSimprovement

BEV -‐ 2DSimprovement

BEV -‐ RTSimprovement

2015

2030 RTS

2030 2DS

Grid integration with EVs and variable renewable energy (VRE)

Smart charging will help to improve grid stability and delay or avoid grid upgrades needed when EV stock shares increase, and with the uptake of variable renewable energy.

Local demand profile and EV charging in the EU on a typical day, B2DS, 2030 0

10

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0 24 48

GW

Hours

Solar PV and uncontrolled EV charging

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HoursDemand load PV generation Electric car charging Net load with PV and electric car charging

Solar PV and controlled EV charging

EV charging coincident with renewablesEV charging reducing generation ramping

Impacts on the grid?

The local distribution grid will be the first to experience issues. Future uptake of fast and high-power charging will require innovative solutions to reduce impact on the local grid.

Slow charging: §  PotenIal for flexibility through smart charging: requires price

signal, demand-‐side management tools. §  Synergies with the integraIon of variable renewables

Fast charging: §  PotenIally disrupIve locally for distribuIon grids §  Limited flexibility for flexible charging §  Business model?

Prospect for EV uptake in different scenarios

EVs will be needed to meet sustainability goals, as suggested by the EV30@30 campaign target. Active government support and industry commitment are essential.

Global electric car fleet

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

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220

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electric cars in the vehicle stock (m

illions)

IEA B2DS

IEA 2DS

Paris Declaration

IEA RTS

Historical

Cumulative country targets(as of 2016)

Cumulative OEMsannouncements (estimate)

Consistent with the ambition of the EV30@30 campaign

EV support policies

Close monitoring of the effect of EV support policies are paramount to avoid adverse effects

•  Fuel economy standards •  Fuel taxes •  Public fleets, taxi fleets iniIaIves •  …

Purchase incenIves

Standards, regulaIons and

mandates

CirculaIon incenIves Charging

infrastructure roll-‐out

•  CO2-‐based, technology-‐based differenIated taxaIon and rebates

•  Feebates •  VAT exempIons •  …

•  DifferenIated plates •  Access to bus lanes •  Free/dedicated parking •  CirculaIon/congesIon charge exempIon •  …

•  Direct public investment •  Public-‐private partnerships •  Charger standards harmonizaIon •  Fast and slow charging network planning •  …

Large scope for city-‐level acIon

Goal: at least 30% of new road vehicle* sales across all EVI members to be electric** by 2030

ImplemenIng acIons on:

•  Deployment of chargers and fueling infrastructure, public procurement and private sector deployment of fleets, expanding research (policy focus) to improve the understanding of best pracIces on EV policy support, providing resources for capacity building to disseminate these best pracIces

•  Establish a Global EV Pilot City Programme, aiming build network of 100 EV-‐Friendly CiIes over five years

Ø Commitments open to all interested stakeholders : Governments, businesses, partner organizaIons, companies, research insItutes, local authoriIes, associaIon, NGOs, non-‐profit organizaIons

EVI > EV30@30 Campaign

* Including passenger cars, light commercial vans, buses, and trucks; excluding 2-‐ and 3-‐wheelers ** Including ba\ery-‐electric, plug-‐in hybrid, and fuel cell

EV30@30 - engagement

SupporAng Governments – so far Canada, China, Finland, France, India, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden SupporAng NGOs and IGOs – so far C40, FIA FoundaIon, GFEI, NRDC, Mission 2020, SLoCaT, The Climate Group, UN Environment, UN Habitat and the ZEV Alliance

• Goal: build network with 100 EV-‐Friendly CiAes over five years •  Provide support to municipal governments

•  Topics: urban planning, infrastructure and charging technology, mass transit (including electric buses) and mobility as a service (including car and ride sharing)

•  Support dialogue with government and private sector •  IdenIfy good pracAces and facilitate their replicaAon and improvement •  Annual event: Pilot City Forum

Ø  Exchange event allowing to facilitate networking and communicaAon across interested stakeholders, to be held alternaIvely in China in odd years and in another economy in even years

• Monitor and report progress : data and informaIon sharing among PCP members

Launch: 23-‐24 May 2018, Clean Energy Ministerial in Copenhagen

EVI > EV30@30 > Global EV Pilot City Programme (PCP)

Cities can be a privileged space for EV support and deployment

Cities have a unique role to play in supporting EVSE rollout and in implementing measures enhancing the value-proposition of driving electric. They act as innovation test-beds for the future of mobility

Market share of electric cars in leading EV economies compared to EV-‐friendly ciIes, 2016:

1.4%

6.4%

0.9%

28.8%

3.4%0.6% 1.4%

7.3% 6.5%

12.2%

5.0%

36.0%

47.7%

6.2% 3.6%1.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

National average

Beijing

Shanghai

National average

Amsterdam

National average

San Francisco

National average

Oslo

Bergen

National average

Stockholm

National average

Cope

nhagen

National average

Lond

on

China Netherlands United States Norway Sweden Denmark United Kingdom

EV m

arket share

-‐  “CiIes have been at the forefront of sImulaIng EV deployment”

-‐  “Leading EV ciIes have shown that, as a result of dedicated local policies complemenIng economy-‐wide EV policy schemes, they can create a favourable environment for EV use and reduce consumer barriers”

-‐  “CiIes can have a leadership role in developing and tesIng innovaAve policy acIons before widespread adopIon”

(Global EV Outlook 2017, IEA)

Nearly one third of global electric car sales took place in just 14 ciEes in 2015

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