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TRANSCRIPT
27.11.2014 Pavillon Cambon, Paris
For Professional Investors only
Global Equities Vincent Houghton, Laure Négiar, Céline Piquemal-Prade
AT COMGEST WE DON’T HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL
Source: Bill Proud
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AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY
2009-2014*
Data in USD for MSCI AC World and S&P 500. * Performance of the MSCI AC World between 27/02/2009 and 18/11/2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.
+156%
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WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
Taking Shiller PE at face value implies 2.3% p.a. for the Dow Industrials Index over the next decade
(+2% dividend yield)
1900 2010
Source: Macquarie Research, Factset, September 2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.
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HISTORY ALSO TELLS US ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF EARNINGS
Earnings vs. stock prices
Source: BCA Research, August 2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.
Price: x392 since 1872
Earnings growth explains
2/3rd of price appreciation
EPS: x256 since 1872
5
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14
Price EPS
WHAT ABOUT THE GLOBAL EARNINGS PICTURE TODAY?
MSCI AC World: Price vs. EPS (in USD, Jan. 2012 to Oct. 2014)
+32%
+2%
+30%
A low earnings growth environment
Source: Citigroup, MSCI, Data as of end October 2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.
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IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT…
Investors need a robust portfolio
Source: www.landrover.com. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.
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A PORTFOLIO FOR ALL SEASONS Global Equities Composite: Performance* (gross, in EUR)
Annualised performance in bull markets
(since inception)
Annualised performance in bear markets
(since inception)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%18.30 18.39
Global Equities Composite MSCI All Country World-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
-5.16
-10.50
Global Equities Composite MSCI All Country World
Number of bull market quarters: 57 Number of bear market quarters: 36
Gross performance in EUR as of 30/09/2014. Source: FactSet/Comgest
*Data represents composite, gross-of-fees performance for all funds managed by Comgest in the relevant strategy. Performance is gross of management fees and performance fees (where applicable). The treatment of other fees may vary between collective
investment schemes and discretionary accounts. The inclusion of management and other fees would have the effect of decreasing the composite performance results. Reference to the benchmark is for comparative purposes only and is not intended to indicate
that the composite will contain the same investments as the benchmark. The volatility of the index may be materially different from that of the composite. The index used for comparative purposes changed from MSCI AC World price to MSCI AC World dividends
reinvested from 01/01/2001. Prior to 2000, figures are converted using the relevant FRF exchange rates. Investors have the opportunity for losses as well as profits. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Volatility
3
Years
Annualised
5
Years
Annualised
10
Years
Annualised
Since
Inception
Annualised
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
6.5
9.3
11.1
13.1
7.4
9.5
12.8
15.2
Composite Index
8
0
400
800
1200
1600
Jun-91 Jul-93 Aug-95 Sep-97 Oct-99 Nov-01 Dec-03 Jan-06 Feb-08 Mar-10 Apr-12 May-14
Composite MSCI AC World - NR
WITH A ROBUST LONG-TERM TRACK RECORD Global Equities Composite: Performance* (gross, in EUR)
Cumulative performance chart
+12.2% p.a.**
+6.0% p.a.**
+6.2%
Gross performance in EUR as of 30/09/2014. Source: FactSet/Comgest
*Data represents composite, gross-of-fees performance for all funds managed by Comgest in the relevant strategy. Performance is gross of management fees and performance fees (where applicable). The treatment of other fees may vary between collective
investment schemes and discretionary accounts. The inclusion of management and other fees would have the effect of decreasing the composite performance results. Reference to the benchmark is for comparative purposes only and is not intended to indicate
that the composite will contain the same investments as the benchmark. The volatility of the index may be materially different from that of the composite. The index used for comparative purposes changed from MSCI AC World price to MSCI AC World dividends
reinvested from 01/01/2001. Prior to 2000, figures are converted using the relevant FRF exchange rates. Investors have the opportunity for losses as well as profits. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. **Gross annualised performance since
inception of the composite as of 30/09/2014.
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WHAT’S BEHIND IT? #1 An experienced and stable team
Average 20 years of
experience in the industry
Diversity
Céline Piquemal-Prade,
Global PM for 11 years and
lead manager for 7 years
Experience
Long-term
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WHAT’S BEHIND IT? #2 A global team
5 = 38
38 Analysts/PMs
Average 13 years’ industry experience
More than 20 nationalities
Global
Team
5
European
Team
7
Japan
Team
5
ESG
Team
2
Emerging
Markets
Team
19
USA
Team
5
End October 2014. Some PMs/analysts are involved in the decision making process of other regional strategies. The ESG analysts supports each regional team.
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WHAT’S BEHIND IT? #3 An unconstrained approach
Global Watchlist = Comgest Regional Funds
Europe / US / Japan / EM (India, China, Latam & Asia ex-Japan)
180 – 220 stocks with > $1.0bn free float (25 – 50 / region)
Global Investment Universe
80 – 90 stocks
Global Portfolio
30 – 40 stocks
Selection of global
quality growth
champions
Ongoing
discussion
between global
team members
Detailed analysis
of candidates
2
Qualitative and
quantitative criteria
1
Valuation3
No top-down allocation… A pure bottom-up process
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WHAT’S BEHIND IT? #4 Long-term for real
Data as of 30/09/2014. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.
57% held for more than 3 years
19% 25% 21% 36%
< 1 year in portfolio ≥ 1 year ≥ 3 years ≥ 5 years
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WHERE DO WE FIND GROWTH TODAY?
Source: Comgest, 30/09/2014. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.
Digitalisation
Productivity enhancement
Ageing population
Market share gains
Globalisation
of Western way of life
27%
Portfolio weight
17%
18%
28%
10%
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A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #1 - HIKARI TSUSHIN
A market leader With recurring profits (in JPY bn)
Source: Company data. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.
Share of such services among SMEs
#1
Mobile
20% market share
#1
Virtual network operator
1.6 million subscribers
#1
FTTP
20% market share
#1
Wifi router data card
20% market share
#1
Life insurance telemarketing
40% market share
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14e Mar-15e
60% of profits is recurring
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A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #1 - HIKARI TSUSHIN
Visibility of growth: cross-sell drives 15% profit growth And the company is selling to more clients
Market share of corporate mobile phones for SMEs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ePark
Water Cooler
MVNO, Wifi Router
ISP
Telephony, Copiers
2004 2014
5 % 20 %
Source: Company data. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.
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A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #2 - COMCAST
Industry best scale Leading to superior gross margins
Top internet service provider state-by-state (after a Time Warner Cable buyout)
Video gross margin
52%
49%
45%
41%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Source: Businessinsider.com (left) / UBS (right). The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.
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A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #2 - COMCAST Growth driver #1: Comcast’s penetration with high speed
data in addressable market (25% of EBITDA) Growth driver #2: Business services (10% of EBITDA)
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Pe
ne
trati
on
of
Ho
me
s P
as
se
d
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Bu
sin
es
s S
erv
ice
s m
ark
et
sh
are
20%+ top-line growth + pricing = high single-digit
EBITDA growth
Source: UBS, Comgest (left) / Company data, Comgest (right). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.
The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.
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A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #3 - BAYER Competitive advantage #1: Increasingly high barriers
to entry in crop science (31% of EBIT)
Competitive advantage #2:
A strong brand in consumer health
Number of players accounting for 70% of crop science market
Source: Company data. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.
3 17
#2 global player in OTC
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A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #3 - BAYER
Pharma EBIT per franchise (€m)
Source: Reasearch By Natixis (left) / Company data (right). The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.
42%
Pharma Consumer health
Crop science
30% 43%
38% of sales -1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Base business xarelto cancer products Others
Growth driver #1: Pharma (44% of EBITDA) Growth driver #2: Emerging Markets
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A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #4 - GAIL INDIA
Gail’s pipeline network and other facilities
LNG terminals
A unique positioning:
Gail India operates more than 70% of India’s
natural gas network (10 700 km of pipeline)
Source: Jefferies, Industry note 17/09/2014. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.
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A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #4 - GAIL INDIA
Gas to expand as a % of energy consumed (in Asia) Gas imports (imported LNG) to increase
LNG share may rise from ~30% in FY13-14 to 50% by F18-19
25% targeted by
government by 2025
Source: Citi Research Aug. 2014 (left) – Nomura Research June 2014 (right). The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.
Demand to expand:
Superior efficiencies versus other sources of fuels
Increased supply visibility
Supply bottlenecks to disappear
thanks to expansion of LNG
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A UNIQUE POSITIONING TODAY Portfolio characteristics vs. MSCI AC World
Quality
Growth At a reasonable price
Comgest Monde
MSCI AC World
Data as of 31/10/2014 / Source: FactSet/Citigroup/Comgest *2/3rd of companies net cash
Investors should be aware that these figures are provided for information purposes only and Comgest does not take any responsibility for discrepancies which may occur between estimated forward figures and factual market data published over the
coming months. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.
17.9x 15.8x
P/E Next 12 months
8%
12% 12% 11%
1%
7%
9%
6%
2012 2013 2014e 2012-2014e
EPS Growth
23
21%
11%
Operating margin 2014e
3%*
48%
Net debt / Equity*
AND FOR ALL SEASONS
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IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document has been prepared for professional investors only and may only be used by these investors. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. The securities discussed herein may not be held in the portfolio at the time you receive this presentation. Performance figures are provided net of all fees unless otherwise stated and are calculated on a time-weighted, total return basis. Funds which specialise in a particular region or market sector may entail higher risks than those which hold a very broad spread of investments. Past investment results are not necessarily indicative of future investment results. The value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. This may be partly due to exchange rate fluctuations in investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Reference to market indices or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. Reference to an index does not imply that the portfolio will achieve returns, volatility or other results similar to the index. The composition of the index will not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed. The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on information from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy can not be guaranteed. No liability is accepted by Comgest in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document. The information in this document is not comprehensive and is presented for informational purposes only. All opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Comgest does not provide tax or legal advice to its clients and all investors are strongly urged to consult their own tax or legal advisors concerning any potential investment. Before making any investment decision, investors are advised to check the investment horizon and category of the Fund in relation to any objectives or constraints they may have. Investors must read the latest Fund prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”), available at our offices and on our website www.comgest.com Investors shall undertake to respect the legal, regulatory and deontological measures relative to the fight against money laundering, as well as the texts that govern their application, and if modified investors shall ensure compliance with the applicable texts. This material is in no case an offer for people living in a specific jurisdiction which does not authorize the distribution of the Funds mentioned herein. The investment professionals listed in this document are employed either by Comgest S.A., Comgest Asset Management International Limited, Comgest Far East Limited, Nippon Comgest Inc, Comgest Singapore Pte. Ltd. Comgest S.A. is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). Comgest Far East Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Comgest Asset Management International Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Nippon Comgest Inc. is regulated by the Financial Service Agency of Japan (registered with Kanto Local Finance Bureau (No. Kinsho 1696)). Comgest Singapore Pte Ltd, created 18 August 2010, is a Licensed Fund Management Company & Exempt Financial Advisor (for Institutional and Accredited Investors) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
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