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27.11.2014 Pavillon Cambon, Paris For Professional Investors only Global Equities Vincent Houghton, Laure Négiar, Céline Piquemal-Prade

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Page 1: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

27.11.2014 Pavillon Cambon, Paris

For Professional Investors only

Global Equities Vincent Houghton, Laure Négiar, Céline Piquemal-Prade

Page 2: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

AT COMGEST WE DON’T HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL

Source: Bill Proud

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Page 3: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY

2009-2014*

Data in USD for MSCI AC World and S&P 500. * Performance of the MSCI AC World between 27/02/2009 and 18/11/2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.

+156%

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Page 4: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

Taking Shiller PE at face value implies 2.3% p.a. for the Dow Industrials Index over the next decade

(+2% dividend yield)

1900 2010

Source: Macquarie Research, Factset, September 2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.

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Page 5: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

HISTORY ALSO TELLS US ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF EARNINGS

Earnings vs. stock prices

Source: BCA Research, August 2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.

Price: x392 since 1872

Earnings growth explains

2/3rd of price appreciation

EPS: x256 since 1872

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Page 6: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14

Price EPS

WHAT ABOUT THE GLOBAL EARNINGS PICTURE TODAY?

MSCI AC World: Price vs. EPS (in USD, Jan. 2012 to Oct. 2014)

+32%

+2%

+30%

A low earnings growth environment

Source: Citigroup, MSCI, Data as of end October 2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.

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Page 7: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT…

Investors need a robust portfolio

Source: www.landrover.com. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.

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Page 8: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A PORTFOLIO FOR ALL SEASONS Global Equities Composite: Performance* (gross, in EUR)

Annualised performance in bull markets

(since inception)

Annualised performance in bear markets

(since inception)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%18.30 18.39

Global Equities Composite MSCI All Country World-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

-5.16

-10.50

Global Equities Composite MSCI All Country World

Number of bull market quarters: 57 Number of bear market quarters: 36

Gross performance in EUR as of 30/09/2014. Source: FactSet/Comgest

*Data represents composite, gross-of-fees performance for all funds managed by Comgest in the relevant strategy. Performance is gross of management fees and performance fees (where applicable). The treatment of other fees may vary between collective

investment schemes and discretionary accounts. The inclusion of management and other fees would have the effect of decreasing the composite performance results. Reference to the benchmark is for comparative purposes only and is not intended to indicate

that the composite will contain the same investments as the benchmark. The volatility of the index may be materially different from that of the composite. The index used for comparative purposes changed from MSCI AC World price to MSCI AC World dividends

reinvested from 01/01/2001. Prior to 2000, figures are converted using the relevant FRF exchange rates. Investors have the opportunity for losses as well as profits. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Volatility

3

Years

Annualised

5

Years

Annualised

10

Years

Annualised

Since

Inception

Annualised

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

6.5

9.3

11.1

13.1

7.4

9.5

12.8

15.2

Composite Index

8

Page 9: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

0

400

800

1200

1600

Jun-91 Jul-93 Aug-95 Sep-97 Oct-99 Nov-01 Dec-03 Jan-06 Feb-08 Mar-10 Apr-12 May-14

Composite MSCI AC World - NR

WITH A ROBUST LONG-TERM TRACK RECORD Global Equities Composite: Performance* (gross, in EUR)

Cumulative performance chart

+12.2% p.a.**

+6.0% p.a.**

+6.2%

Gross performance in EUR as of 30/09/2014. Source: FactSet/Comgest

*Data represents composite, gross-of-fees performance for all funds managed by Comgest in the relevant strategy. Performance is gross of management fees and performance fees (where applicable). The treatment of other fees may vary between collective

investment schemes and discretionary accounts. The inclusion of management and other fees would have the effect of decreasing the composite performance results. Reference to the benchmark is for comparative purposes only and is not intended to indicate

that the composite will contain the same investments as the benchmark. The volatility of the index may be materially different from that of the composite. The index used for comparative purposes changed from MSCI AC World price to MSCI AC World dividends

reinvested from 01/01/2001. Prior to 2000, figures are converted using the relevant FRF exchange rates. Investors have the opportunity for losses as well as profits. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. **Gross annualised performance since

inception of the composite as of 30/09/2014.

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Page 10: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

WHAT’S BEHIND IT? #1 An experienced and stable team

Average 20 years of

experience in the industry

Diversity

Céline Piquemal-Prade,

Global PM for 11 years and

lead manager for 7 years

Experience

Long-term

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Page 11: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

WHAT’S BEHIND IT? #2 A global team

5 = 38

38 Analysts/PMs

Average 13 years’ industry experience

More than 20 nationalities

Global

Team

5

European

Team

7

Japan

Team

5

ESG

Team

2

Emerging

Markets

Team

19

USA

Team

5

End October 2014. Some PMs/analysts are involved in the decision making process of other regional strategies. The ESG analysts supports each regional team.

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Page 12: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

WHAT’S BEHIND IT? #3 An unconstrained approach

Global Watchlist = Comgest Regional Funds

Europe / US / Japan / EM (India, China, Latam & Asia ex-Japan)

180 – 220 stocks with > $1.0bn free float (25 – 50 / region)

Global Investment Universe

80 – 90 stocks

Global Portfolio

30 – 40 stocks

Selection of global

quality growth

champions

Ongoing

discussion

between global

team members

Detailed analysis

of candidates

2

Qualitative and

quantitative criteria

1

Valuation3

No top-down allocation… A pure bottom-up process

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Page 13: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

WHAT’S BEHIND IT? #4 Long-term for real

Data as of 30/09/2014. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.

57% held for more than 3 years

19% 25% 21% 36%

< 1 year in portfolio ≥ 1 year ≥ 3 years ≥ 5 years

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Page 14: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

WHERE DO WE FIND GROWTH TODAY?

Source: Comgest, 30/09/2014. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.

Digitalisation

Productivity enhancement

Ageing population

Market share gains

Globalisation

of Western way of life

27%

Portfolio weight

17%

18%

28%

10%

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Page 15: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #1 - HIKARI TSUSHIN

A market leader With recurring profits (in JPY bn)

Source: Company data. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.

Share of such services among SMEs

#1

Mobile

20% market share

#1

Virtual network operator

1.6 million subscribers

#1

FTTP

20% market share

#1

Wifi router data card

20% market share

#1

Life insurance telemarketing

40% market share

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14e Mar-15e

60% of profits is recurring

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Page 16: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #1 - HIKARI TSUSHIN

Visibility of growth: cross-sell drives 15% profit growth And the company is selling to more clients

Market share of corporate mobile phones for SMEs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ePark

Water Cooler

MVNO, Wifi Router

ISP

Telephony, Copiers

2004 2014

5 % 20 %

Source: Company data. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.

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Page 17: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #2 - COMCAST

Industry best scale Leading to superior gross margins

Top internet service provider state-by-state (after a Time Warner Cable buyout)

Video gross margin

52%

49%

45%

41%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

Source: Businessinsider.com (left) / UBS (right). The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.

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Page 18: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #2 - COMCAST Growth driver #1: Comcast’s penetration with high speed

data in addressable market (25% of EBITDA) Growth driver #2: Business services (10% of EBITDA)

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Pe

ne

trati

on

of

Ho

me

s P

as

se

d

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14

Bu

sin

es

s S

erv

ice

s m

ark

et

sh

are

20%+ top-line growth + pricing = high single-digit

EBITDA growth

Source: UBS, Comgest (left) / Company data, Comgest (right). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.

The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.

18

Page 19: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #3 - BAYER Competitive advantage #1: Increasingly high barriers

to entry in crop science (31% of EBIT)

Competitive advantage #2:

A strong brand in consumer health

Number of players accounting for 70% of crop science market

Source: Company data. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.

3 17

#2 global player in OTC

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Page 20: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #3 - BAYER

Pharma EBIT per franchise (€m)

Source: Reasearch By Natixis (left) / Company data (right). The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.

42%

Pharma Consumer health

Crop science

30% 43%

38% of sales -1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Base business xarelto cancer products Others

Growth driver #1: Pharma (44% of EBITDA) Growth driver #2: Emerging Markets

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Page 21: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #4 - GAIL INDIA

Gail’s pipeline network and other facilities

LNG terminals

A unique positioning:

Gail India operates more than 70% of India’s

natural gas network (10 700 km of pipeline)

Source: Jefferies, Industry note 17/09/2014. The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment.

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Page 22: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A QUALITY GROWTH EXAMPLE #4 - GAIL INDIA

Gas to expand as a % of energy consumed (in Asia) Gas imports (imported LNG) to increase

LNG share may rise from ~30% in FY13-14 to 50% by F18-19

25% targeted by

government by 2025

Source: Citi Research Aug. 2014 (left) – Nomura Research June 2014 (right). The material presented in this document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.

Demand to expand:

Superior efficiencies versus other sources of fuels

Increased supply visibility

Supply bottlenecks to disappear

thanks to expansion of LNG

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Page 23: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

A UNIQUE POSITIONING TODAY Portfolio characteristics vs. MSCI AC World

Quality

Growth At a reasonable price

Comgest Monde

MSCI AC World

Data as of 31/10/2014 / Source: FactSet/Citigroup/Comgest *2/3rd of companies net cash

Investors should be aware that these figures are provided for information purposes only and Comgest does not take any responsibility for discrepancies which may occur between estimated forward figures and factual market data published over the

coming months. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward looking statements or data may not be realised.

17.9x 15.8x

P/E Next 12 months

8%

12% 12% 11%

1%

7%

9%

6%

2012 2013 2014e 2012-2014e

EPS Growth

23

21%

11%

Operating margin 2014e

3%*

48%

Net debt / Equity*

Page 24: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

AND FOR ALL SEASONS

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Page 25: Global Equities - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/.../comgest/Global_2014Seminar_EN.pdf · AT OUR 2009 JANUARY SEMINAR WE LOOKED AT HISTORY 2009-2014* Data in USD for MSCI AC World and

IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document has been prepared for professional investors only and may only be used by these investors. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. The securities discussed herein may not be held in the portfolio at the time you receive this presentation. Performance figures are provided net of all fees unless otherwise stated and are calculated on a time-weighted, total return basis. Funds which specialise in a particular region or market sector may entail higher risks than those which hold a very broad spread of investments. Past investment results are not necessarily indicative of future investment results. The value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. This may be partly due to exchange rate fluctuations in investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Reference to market indices or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. Reference to an index does not imply that the portfolio will achieve returns, volatility or other results similar to the index. The composition of the index will not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed. The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on information from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy can not be guaranteed. No liability is accepted by Comgest in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document. The information in this document is not comprehensive and is presented for informational purposes only. All opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Comgest does not provide tax or legal advice to its clients and all investors are strongly urged to consult their own tax or legal advisors concerning any potential investment. Before making any investment decision, investors are advised to check the investment horizon and category of the Fund in relation to any objectives or constraints they may have. Investors must read the latest Fund prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”), available at our offices and on our website www.comgest.com Investors shall undertake to respect the legal, regulatory and deontological measures relative to the fight against money laundering, as well as the texts that govern their application, and if modified investors shall ensure compliance with the applicable texts. This material is in no case an offer for people living in a specific jurisdiction which does not authorize the distribution of the Funds mentioned herein. The investment professionals listed in this document are employed either by Comgest S.A., Comgest Asset Management International Limited, Comgest Far East Limited, Nippon Comgest Inc, Comgest Singapore Pte. Ltd. Comgest S.A. is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). Comgest Far East Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Comgest Asset Management International Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Nippon Comgest Inc. is regulated by the Financial Service Agency of Japan (registered with Kanto Local Finance Bureau (No. Kinsho 1696)). Comgest Singapore Pte Ltd, created 18 August 2010, is a Licensed Fund Management Company & Exempt Financial Advisor (for Institutional and Accredited Investors) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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