global estimates of ambient pm 2.5 concentrations from satellite aod aaron van donkelaar with...
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Global Estimates of Ambient PM2.5 Concentrations from Satellite AOD
Aaron van Donkelaar
with contributions from:
Randall Martin, Brian Boys, Crystal Weagle, and Graydon Snider
VIIRS Aerosol Science and Operational Users Workshop
November 21-22, 2013
PM2.5 affects human health and longevity
Particulate Matter
Ground-level Ozone
Unsafe Water Supplyand Sanitation
Indoor Air Pollution
Malaria
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0Deaths (millions of people) OECD, 2012
201020302050
• Life expectancy increases 7 months per 10 μg/m3 decrease in long-term exposure
• PM2.5 regulation achieved largest gains of all U.S. Federal Regulation
• Dominates global environmental mortality by 2030
Vast Regions Have Insufficient Measurements for Air Pollution Exposure Assessment
Locations of Publicly Accessible Long-Term PM2.5 Monitoring Sites
Monitor locations can be driven by compliance objectives
~1 site / 10,000 km2 in continental US & southern Canada
Emerging Network
Previous Global Burden of Disease Report for 2000Impaired by Insufficient Global Observations of Fine
Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
Estimate air pollution in urban areas causes:• ~1 million deaths (~1%)Could not estimate effects outside of urban areas for 2000 reportCould this be improved with satellite remote sensing?
Cohen et al., 2005
AOD is related to PM2.5…but how to separate surface aerosol from column concentrations?
Multiple approaches:• surface monitors calibration• empirical relations• model output
20 80 140
PM2.5 / AOD[μg/m3] GEOS-Chem v8-01-04
PM2.5 / AOD ratio is a function of:•vertical structure•aerosol type/hygroscopicity•meteorology
Significant agreement with coincident ground measurements over NA
SatelliteDerived
In-situ
Sat
ellit
e-D
eriv
ed [μ
g/m
3]
In-situ PM2.5 [μg/m3]
Ann
ual M
ean
PM
2.5 [
μg/
m3] (
2001
-200
6)
r
MODIS AOD 0.39
MISR AOD 0.39
Combined AOD 0.61
Combined PM2.5 0.77
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
van Donkelaar et al., EHP, 2010
Satellite-derived PM2.5 shows global agreement
Outside Canada/USN = 244 (84 non-EU)r = 0.83 (0.83)Slope = 0.86 (0.91)Bias = 1.15 (-2.64) μg/m3
CTM Agreement:r = 0.63 (0.72)slope = 0.54 (0.60)bias = 8.89 (2.45) μg/m3
van Donkelaar et al., EHP, 2010
Satellite-Derived PM2.5 (2001-2006) [μg/m3]0 5 10 15 20 50 80
Inform Epidemiological Studies:• Global childhood asthma (Anderson et al., 2012)
• Lung cancer in Canada (Hystad et al., 2012)
• Mortality in California (Jerrett et al., 2013)
• Diabetes (Brook et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2013)
• Global adverse birth outcomes (Fleisher et al., in press)
• Hypertension (Chen et al., in press)
• Low PM2.5 cardiovascular mortality (Crouse et al., 2012)
Global impact of global data
Global Burden of Disease 2010• 488 authors from 303 institutions in 50
countries• Inclusion of rural populations• PM2.5 causal role in 3 million deaths per year
Lim et al., Lancet, 2012
Crouse et al., EHP, 2012
Global in situ monitors are sparse...and far from AERONET
• Difficult to evaluate error sources• SPARTAN network collocates
PM2.5 and AOD measurements– Satellite-derived PM2.5 evaluation,
analysis,
Airphoton PM2.5 (Vanderlei Martins)
Filter PM2.5
Filter PM10
3-λ Nephelometer
AOD from CIMEL
Sunphotometer (e.g. AERONET)
www.spartan-network.org
• PM2.5 estimates accuracy impacted by– AOD retrieval– Simulated aerosol vertical profile– Mass to extinction conversion
• Sampling (clouds/snow)
Determine profile accuracy:• Compare with CALIOP
space-borne lidar• Match optical properties• Long-term (2006-2011)
comparisons
CALIOP allows vertical profile correction GEOS-Chem
CALIOP
Altit
ude
[km
]5
4
3
2
1
00 2 4 6 8 0 0.5 1 1.5 1.9Relative Profile Ratio Relative Profile
van Donkelaar et al., JGR, 2013
(𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑓𝐴𝑂𝐷 )𝐺𝐶
(𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑓𝐴𝑂𝐷 )𝐶𝐴𝐿
2
1.5
1
0.5
June-August 2006-2011
van Donkelaar et al., in prep.
1998-2012
PM2.
5 [μg
/m3 ]Long-term retrievals allow trends
combined MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS-based PM2.5
Global:+0.6
Perc
ent o
f Pop
ulati
on [%
]
100
80
60
40
20
05 10 15 25 35 50 100
Annual Mean Exposure [μg/m3]
2012
2005
1998
Year
IT1
IT3
IT2
AQG
1998-2012 exposure trend [μg/m3/yr]
Global exposure and trends vary by region
van Donkelaar et al., in prep
Europe,Central
-0.2
Asia,South+1.0
Europe,Western
-0.2
North America,High Income
-0.3
Asia,East+1.4
North Africa,Middle East
+0.4
1008060
4020
0
8060
4020
0
8060
4020
0
Perc
ent o
f Pop
ulati
on [%
]
5 10 15 25 35 50 100Annual Mean Exposure [μg/m3]
5 10 15 25 35 50 100
Some Ongoing & Future Activities
Chinese PM2.5 Events
Size Resolved AOD/PM2.5 Calculation
1 km Optimal Estimation Retrieval
PURE Air: Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiological Study
Operational AIRNow Satellite Data Processor
PCW/PHEOSEnvironmental Performance Index
ESCAPE - EUROPEAN STUDY OF COHORTS FOR AIR POLLUTION EFFECTS
Extras
Short-term agreement during extreme events – Moscow 2010
van Donkelaar et al., AE, 2011
MODIS/AquaAug 7th, 2010
Moscow
50 km
MODIS-based
In Situ PM2.5
In Situ PM2.5 from PM10
r =0.92, slope=1.061000
800
600
400
200
0
PM2.
5 [μg
/m3 ]
Jul-14 Jul-19 Jul-24 Jul-29 Aug-03 Aug-08 Aug-13 Aug-18
65°N
60°N
55°N
50°N
120100
80
60
40
20
0
PM2.
5 [μg
/m3 ]
Before FiresJuly 7- July 29, 2010
During FiresJuly 7- July 29, 2010
35°E 45°E 55°E 35°E 45°E 55°E
Daily Satellite-based Estimates in North America Benefit from Spatial Smoothing & Bias Correction
Error in Original (2004, 2006,2008)
Error in Smoothed & Bias-corrected (2004, 2006, 2008)
van Donkelaar et al., ES&T, 2012
Bias Corrected & Smoothed, Jun 27, 2005
OE
PM2.
5 [μg
/m3 ]
In situ PM2.5 [μg/m3]0 10 20 30 40
40
30
20
10
0
15
10
5
0
OE
PM2.
5 [μ
g/m
3 ]
Simulated values can constrain retrievals
2005van Donkelaar et al., JGR, 2013
2ε
2
a
a
2a
2a
σ
AODdAOD
dρρ
σAODAOD
J(AOD)
observed TOAreflectance
a priori AODa posteriori
AOD
a priori errorobservational
error
Satellites provide:• High resolution (0.1° × 0.1°)• Observational constraint• Column-integrated value
GEOS-Chem provides:• AOD/PM2.5 relationship• A priori values
Optimal estimation constrains AOD retrieval by error:
Available from 2004-2011
Sampling Station Designed for Nearly Autonomous OperationFilter Cartridges Replaced Every Two Months
Nephelometer (1 Hz) Resolves Satellite Overpass vs 24-hr Solar Capability 8-slot Filter Cartridge Collect PM2.5 & PM10
Cartridge Protects Filters
SPARTAN Activities at DalhousiePre&Post Weigh Filters Analysis for Ions, Metals, Black Carbon
(Ion Chromotraphy; Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry; Absorption )
SPARTAN Activities
Expansion &Supersite Development
Beijing, China Dhaka, Bangladesh
Kanpur, India