global ethylene industry - feedstock advantage … · 4.1 global ethylene industry, market size,...

REFERENCE CODE GDCH0001MAR | PUBLICAT ION DATE DECEMBER 2013

GLOBAL ETHYLENE INDUSTRY - FEEDSTOCK ADVANTAGE SHIFTS NEW

INVESTMENTS TO THE US

Global Ethylene Industry – Feedstock Advantage Shifts New Investments to the US 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

GLOBAL ETHYLENE INDUSTRY – FEEDSTOCK ADVANTAGE SHIFTS NEW INVESTMENTS

TO THE US

Executive Summary

Feedstock Cost to Shape Ethylene Supply in the Future

Substantial change in feedstock cost in various

parts of the world is impacting the global ethylene

supply dynamics. In the US, abundance of natural

gas liquids from shale rocks has substantially

reduced feedstock and overall production cost,

while in Europe, cost of production have increased

substantially due to persistent high crude oil prices.

Asia-Pacific and South America are also

witnessing a substantially higher cost of production

due to crude oil prices but they can manage it with

high demand. Middle East is the most cost efficient

region for ethylene production, however, it will not

be able to maintain capacity growth rate of the last

decade as future supply of subsidized feedstock is

uncertain.

These developments are likely to impact ethylene

production over the next XX years. North America

is increasing its capacity more than it can absorb

therefore it will have to depend on exports markets.

Europe is expected to suffer from high crude oil

prices and low demand, and therefore will not

increase capacity over the next XX years. Middle

East will continue to increase capacity but at much

slower rate. It will face strong competition from

North America in exports markets. Capacity in

South America and Asia-Pacific will increase as

per the demand.

Asia-Pacific will Continue to Drive Ethylene Demand

Asia-Pacific is the largest and fastest growing

market for ethylene due to its large population and

rapidly industrializing economies. Economic growth

in major Asian countries has slowed in 2012 and

2013 but it is still decent considering demand for

end-use sectors such as polyethylene and

ethylene oxide is strong. Overall demand volume

will grow albeit at a slower pace over the next XX

years compared with the previous decade. Even

with slow growth, Asia-Pacific will continue to be

larger market than any other region and will

account for around XX% of the global demand

volume. Therefore, Asia-Pacific will continue to

serve as the demand engine for the global

ethylene industry. The following table shows Asia-

Pacific’s share in the global ethylene demand.

Asia-Pacific’s Share in Global Demand, 2002–2017

2002

2007

2012

2017

*

Asi

a-P

acifi

c's

shar

e in

glo

bal d

eman

d (%

)

Source: GlobalData Oil and Gas eTrack [accessed November 12, 2013] * Forecast


Table of Contents


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1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4

1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 6

1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 7

2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 8

2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 8

2.2 GlobalData Report Guidance .............................................................................................. 9

3 Global Ethylene Capacity – North America Will Rank Just Behind the Asia-Pacific Region....... 10

3.1 The Global Ethylene Industry, Supply Scenario, 2002-2017.............................................. 11

3.2 Global Ethylene Planned Plants Details – The US and China Will Add the Most Capacity through 2017 ..................................................................................................................... 13

3.3 Global Ethylene Installed Plant Capacity by Key Feedstock, 2012 .................................... 16

3.4 Global Ethylene Industry, Capacity Share of Top 10 Companies, 2012............................. 17

4 China and India Will Drive Demand for Ethylene in the Asia-Pacific Region ............................. 19

4.1 Global Ethylene Industry, Market Size, 2002–2017 ........................................................... 19

4.2 Global Ethylene Production, 2002–2017 ........................................................................... 25

4.3 Global Ethylene 2012 Demand by End-Use Sector ........................................................... 28

4.4 Global Ethylene Price Forecast 2002–2017 ...................................................................... 29

5 Major Companies Active in the Global Ethylene Industry .......................................................... 31

5.1 SABIC ............................................................................................................................... 31

5.1.1 Company Overview ....................................................................................................... 31

5.1.2 SABIC’s Global Ethylene Capacity, 2002-2017 ............................................................. 32

5.1.3 SABIC’s Active Ethylene Complexes Details, 2012 ....................................................... 34

5.2 Dow Chemical ................................................................................................................... 35


5.2.2 Dow Chemical, Global Ethylene Capacity, 2002-2017 ................................................... 37

5.2.3 Dow Chemical’s Active Ethylene Complexes in 2012 .................................................... 39


Table of Contents


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5.3 ExxonMobil Corporation .................................................................................................... 40


5.3.2 ExxonMobil’s Total Installed Capacity, 2002-2017 ........................................................ 41

5.3.3 ExxonMobil’s Active Ethylene Complexes in 2012 ........................................................ 43

6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 44

7 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 45

7.1 Definitions ......................................................................................................................... 45

7.1.1 Installed Capacity .......................................................................................................... 45

7.1.2 Process ......................................................................................................................... 45

7.1.3 Technology ................................................................................................................... 45

7.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 45

7.3 GlobalData’s Research Methodology ................................................................................ 45

7.3.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 46

7.3.2 Secondary Research ..................................................................................................... 46

7.3.3 Primary Research ......................................................................................................... 47

7.3.4 Expert Panel Validation ................................................................................................. 47

7.4 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 48


Table of Contents


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1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Global Ethylene Capacity by Region, 2002–2017 ........................................................................ 12

Table 2: Global Ethylene Major Planned Plant Details, 2013–2017 ............................................................ 13

Table 3: Global Ethylene Major Planned Plant Details, 2013–2017 (Contd.) .............................................. 15

Table 4: Global Ethylene Capacity by Feedstock, 2012 ............................................................................. 16

Table 5: Ethylene Capacity Share of Top 10 Companies (%), 2012 ........................................................... 18

Table 6: Polyethylene Demand in the US and China, 2002 and 2012 ........................................................ 19

Table 7: Global Ethylene Market Size by Region ($bn), 2002–2017........................................................... 22

Table 8: Global Ethylene Demand Volume by Region, 2002–2017 ............................................................ 24

Table 9: Global Ethylene Production by Region, 2002–2017 ..................................................................... 27

Table 10: Global Ethylene Demand by End-Use 2012 ................................................................................ 28

Table 11: Global Ethylene Average Price by Region ($/Ton), 2002–2017 .................................................... 30

Table 12: Key Facts About Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Key Facts .................................................. 31

Table 13: SABIC’s Installed Ethylene Capacity, 2002–2017 ........................................................................ 33

Table 14: SABIC’s Active Ethylene Complexes 2012 .................................................................................. 34

Table 15: Key Facts About Dow Chemical .................................................................................................. 36

Table 16: Dow Chemical’s Installed Ethylene Capacity, 2002–2017 ............................................................ 38

Table 17: Dow Chemical’s Active Ethylene Complexes in 2012 ................................................................... 39

Table 18: Key Facts About Exxon Mobil Corporation ................................................................................... 40

Table 19: ExxonMobil’s Installed Ethylene Capacity, 2002–2017 ................................................................. 42

Table 20: ExxonMobil’s Active Ethylene Complexes in 2012 ....................................................................... 43


Table of Contents


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1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Ethylene Capacity by Region, 2002–2017 ........................................................................ 11

Figure 2: Global Ethylene Capacity by Feedstock, 2012 ............................................................................. 16

Figure 3: Ethylene Capacity Share of Top 10 Companies (%), 2012 ........................................................... 17

Figure 4: Global Ethylene Market Size by Region ($bn), 2002–2017 ........................................................... 21

Figure 5: Global Ethylene Demand Volume by Region, 2002–2017 ............................................................. 23

Figure 6: Global Ethylene Production by Region, 2002–2017 ...................................................................... 26

Figure 7: Global Ethylene Demand by End-Use 2012 ................................................................................. 28

Figure 8: Global Ethylene Average Price by Region ($/Ton), 2002–2017 ..................................................... 29

Figure 9: SABIC’s Installed Ethylene Capacity, 2002–2017 ........................................................................ 32

Figure 10: Dow Chemical’s Installed Ethylene Capacity, 2002–2017 ............................................................ 37

Figure 11: ExxonMobil’s Installed Ethylene Capacity, 2002–2017 ................................................................. 41



TO THE US

Introduction

2 Introduction

2.1 Overview

GlobalData’s report, “Global Ethylene Industry – Feedstock Advantage Shifts New Investments to

the US” provides in-depth coverage of the global ethylene industry. The report covers global

ethylene capacity by region and presents installed capacity by feedstock. In addition, it presents

ethylene market data such as demand and production forecasts, end use market share and price

trends. The report also covers profiles of the largest ethylene manufacturing companies in the

world.

The ethylene capacity coverage in the report includes the sum of all global ethylene plant

capacities while the ethylene market coverage, such as demand value, demand volume and

production volume, is based on data from XX major countries that account for more than XX% of

global ethylene demand. These countries are China, India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea,

Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Russia, Spain, the UK,

Saudi Arabia, Iran, Canada, Mexico, the US, Argentina and Brazil.

The company profile section of the report provides a business overview of the three largest

ethylene companies based on installed ethylene capacity. The section covers historic and forecast

ethylene capacity of these companies and also provides information about petrochemical

complexes of each company with equity partnership details and production capacity.



TO THE US

Introduction

2.2 GlobalData Report Guidance

Chapter two highlights the main features of the global ethylene industry and provides historic

and forecast capacity by region, planned facility details, capacity by feedstock and major

company capacity shares.

Chapter three provides historic and forecast demand and supply scenarios.. This chapter

covers then size of the ethylene market, demand and production volume, and price trends by

region from 2002 to 2017. Additionally, it provides demand by major end-use sectors in 2012.

Chapter four provides profiles of the major companies active in the global ethylene industry.

Companies covered in this chapter include Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), The

Dow Chemical Company and Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Chapter five provides an industry overview and forecasts demand-supply dynamics by region.


North America Will Rank Just Behind the Asia-Pacific Region


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3.1 The Global Ethylene Industry, Supply Scenario, 2002-2017

Global ethylene capacity increased to XX mmty in 2012 from XX mmty in 2002 at a CAGR of XX%.

GlobalData forecasts that capacity additions will accelerate from 2014 onwards when more than

XX mmty of ethylene capacity will be added every year. Global capacity is expected to reach XX

mmty by 2017 at a CAGR of XX%. The following figure shows global ethylene capacity from 2002

to 2017.

Figure 1: Global Ethylene Capacity by Region, 2002–2017

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Cap

acity

(mm

ty)

Asia-Pacific North America Middle East and Africa Europe South America

Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack [accessed November 12, 2013]




TO THE US

Table 1: Global Ethylene Capacity by Region, 2002–2017

Year (mmty) Asia-Pacific

North America

Middle East and Africa Europe South

America Grand Total

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR (2002-2012)

CAGR (2012-2017) Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack [accessed November 12, 2013]




TO THE US

3.3 Global Ethylene Installed Plant Capacity by Key Feedstock, 2012

Naphtha is the dominant feedstock used for ethylene production worldwide. In 2012, processed

naphtha accounted for XX% of the feedstock for global ethylene capacity. Naphtha is used mostly

in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and South America. The second most widely-used feedstocks

are natural gas liquids, the by-product of gas processing plants and refining processes, accounting

for XX% of global feedstock usage and used primarily in North America and the Middle East. Coal

accounted for only XX% of global capacity. The following figure shows the ethylene capacity split

by feedstock in 2012.

Figure 2: Global Ethylene Capacity by Feedstock, 2012

Naphtha

Natural Gas Liquids

Coal

Others

Source: GlobalData Oil and Gas eTrack [accessed November 12, 2013] Note: “This analysis is based on GlobalData’s proprietary petrochemicals plants database, and ‘Others’ category implies capacity of plants for which feedstock is not known.

Table 4: Global Ethylene Capacity by Feedstock, 2012 Feedstock Capacity Share (%)

Naphtha

Natural Gas Liquids

Coal

Others

Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack [accessed November 12, 2013]


Appendix


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7 Appendix

7.1 Definitions

7.1.1 Installed Capacity

The maximum rated output of a plant under specific conditions designated by the manufacturer.

The installed capacity is usually indicated in units of tons on a nameplate affixed to the plant.

7.1.2 Process

A process is a combination of unit operations used in the manufacturing of petrochemicals to

change the composition of chemicals.

7.1.3 Technology

Technology is referred to as a technical process used in the petrochemical industry, which is

developed by a specific business entity.

7.2 Abbreviations

CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate

mty – Thousand tons per year

mmty – Million tons per year

7.3 GlobalData’s Research Methodology

GlobalData’s research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with a pedigree in

marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the petrochemical industry and with

advanced statistical expertise.

GlobalData adheres to the Codes of Practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and

the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

All GlobalData databases are continuously updated and revised. The following research

methodology is followed for all databases and reports.


Appendix


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7.3.1 Coverage

The objective of updating GlobalData coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up to

date vision of the industry possible

Changes in the industry taxonomy are built on the basis of extensive research of company,

association and competitor sources

Company coverage is based on three key factors: market capitalization, revenues and media

attention/innovation/market potential

An exhaustive search of 56 member exchanges is conducted and companies are prioritized on

the basis of their market capitalization

The estimated revenues of all major companies, including private and governmental, are

gathered and used to prioritize coverage

Companies that are making news, or which are of particular interest due to their innovative

approach are prioritized

GlobalData aims to cover all major news events and deals in the petrochemical industry,

updated on a daily basis

The coverage is further streamlined and strengthened with additional inputs from GlobalData’s

expert panel (see below).

7.3.2 Secondary Research

The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources

being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market.

Secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to:

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations and

SEC filings

Industry trade journals and other literature

Internal and external proprietary databases

National government documents, statistical databases and market reports


Appendix


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News articles, press releases and webcasts specific to the companies operating in the market.

7.3.3 Primary Research

GlobalData conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and

commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the

following functions:

It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive

landscape, and future outlook

It helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings

It further develops the analysis team’s expertise and market understanding

Primary research involves e-mail correspondence and telephone interviews as well as face-to-

face interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies.

The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:

Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence

managers and national sales managers

Outside experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts and key opinion

leaders specializing in the petrochemical industry

7.3.4 Expert Panel Validation

GlobalData uses a panel of experts to cross verify research and forecast methodologies, and drive

its analytical content.

The GlobalData expert panel comprises marketing managers, product specialists, international

sales managers from petrochemical companies; academics from research universities and

consultants from professional services companies.


Appendix


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7.4 Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any

form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior

permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

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