global ev outlook 2018 · global ev outlook 2018 ... electric vehicles initiative (evi)...

IEA

Global EV Outlook 2018

Leonardo Paoli - International Energy Agency

Asian Clean Energy Forum 2018 – Manila, 7th June 2018

Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)

Multi-government policy forum dedicated to conducting collaborative activitiesthat support the design and implementation of domestic electric vehicle (EV)deployment policies and programs

In 2010, EVI was one of several initiatives launched under the CEM

Currently co-chaired by Canada and China, and coordinated by the IEA

Released several analytical publications, demonstrating leadership to strengthenthe understanding of the opportunities offered by electric mobility to meet multiple policy goals

Instrumental to mobilize action and commitments (Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet Declaration at COP22)

Launched the EV30@30 Campaign in June 2017

Now launching the Pilot City Programme

Also working with the Global Environment Facility on the preparation of a project for the support ofEV policy-making in developing regions

Members

in 2018

http://newsroom.unfccc.int/media/521376/paris-electro-mobility-declaration.pdf

https://www.iea.org/media/topics/transport/EVI_Government_Fleet_Declaration.pdf

http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Our-Work/CEM-Campaigns/EV30at30

The number of electric cars on the road continues to grow

The electric car stock exceeded 3 million in 2017

However, electric cars still only represent 0.3% of the global car fleet

Electric car sales

China is the largest electric car market globally, followed by Europe and the US.

Norway is the global leader in terms of market share

0%

5%

10%

15%

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40%

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560

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013

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17

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Ele

ctri

c ca

r m

ark

et

sha

re

New

ele

ctri

c ca

r sal

es ([

thou

sand

s)

China

Europe

United States

Norway

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

France

Sweden

Canada

Netherlands

Market share of newelectric cars

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25%

50%

75%

100%

Shar

e of

PH

EVs

in

elec

tric

car

sal

es

Electric mobility is not limited to cars

Electric 2-wheelers: major phenomenon in China, where there are 250 million in the rolling stock and

30 million sales per year

Buses: 360 000 in China. Close to 90 000 sales in 2017 . Stimulated by policy support.

Growing interest in C40 cities (better economics: not only pollution and climate-driven phenomenon)

EV Chargers

Global EVSE stocks increase with EV deployment.

Publicly accessible chargers represent about 10% of the total number chargers

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4 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ch

arg

ing

ou

tlet

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ho

usa

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s)

Publicly available fast chargers

Publicly available slow chargers

Private fast chargers (bus fleets)

Private slow chargers (cars)

Ratio of publicly available chargers per electric car

Ratios of publicly accessible EVSE outlets can differ by a factor of 5 among countries.Most countries are ahead of their targets, but the case of Norway indicates that lower ratios may also be viable

when transitioning towards mass market adoption.

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0.30

Can

ada

Ch

ina

Fran

ce

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rma

ny

Jap

an

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her

lan

ds

No

rway

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en

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d K

ingd

om US

To

tal

BEV

sh

are

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tal

elec

tric

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EVSE

/ele

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r

EVSE/electric car(total)

EVSE/electric car

(slow)

EVSE/electric car

(fast)

EU 2020 target

BEV share in totalelectric car sales

(right-axis)

2017: key policy updates

• New Energy Vehicle (NEV) credits mandate

• Vehicle Subsidy Program: higher technical performance requirements

• Considering a national ban on ICE cars

• Update of the CO2

emissions standards up to 2030

• Incentive scheme for of zero- and low-emission vehicles

• ICE and Diesel bans by some member states

• Revision of fuel economy standards at a federal level.

• Not all states affected by decision

• California EV targets more ambitious: 5 million by 2030

• In 2017 announcements of ambitious targets

• Renewal of subsidies (FAME) and public procurement

• Launch of plan for charging infrastructure deployment

100

20302017

400

0

155

360

120

Bat

tery

co

sts

(USD

/kW

h)

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LFP-Gr NMC 111-Gr NCA-Gr NMC622-Gr NMC 811-Gr

Ba

tter

y co

st (U

SD/k

Wh

)

Cathode chemistry

Other materials

Battery jacket

Module hardware

Electrolyte

Separators

Negative active material

Positive active material

Other cost components

Lithium-ion costs reduction prospects (BEV batteries)

The combined effect of manufacturing scale up, improved chemistry and increased battery size

explain how battery cost can decline significantly in the next 10 to 15 years

Plant scale

Chemistry

Battery size

0.5-8 GWh/year

2017

35 GWh/year

2030

20-75 kWh

2017

70-80 kWh

2030

NMC 111

2017

NMC 811

2030

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Annual mileage (thousand km)

Small car - Gasoline price: USD 1.5 /L

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Large car - Gasoline price: USD 1.5 /L

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Annual mileage (thouand km)


400 USD/kWh: Large battery 260 USD/kWh: Large battery 120 USD/kWh: Large battery

400 USD/kWh: Current battery 260 USD/kWh: Current battery 120 USD/kWh: Current battery

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Battery price:

Total Cost of Ownership

BEVs are most competitive in markets with high fuel taxes and at high mileageAt a USD 120/kWh battery price and with EU gasoline prices, BEV are competitive even at low mileage

LDVs - BEV

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Annual mileage (km)

Gasoline price: USD 0.8 /L

180 USD/kWh 400 USD/kWh 600 USD/kWh

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2-wheelers

The economic case for electric two-wheelers is strong: in countries with high fuel taxes electric two-wheelers are already cost competitive with gasoline models

High incomeDiesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh Diesel price of USD 0.9 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh

Low incomeDiesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh Diesel price of USD 0.9 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh

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TCO

dif

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nti

al (I

CE-

BEV

) (U

SD/k

m)

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/km

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Annual mileage (thousand km/year)

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EV)

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Buses

Electric buses travelling 40 000-50 000 km/year are cost competitive in regions with high diesel taxation regimes if battery prices are below USD 260/kWh

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Battery price:

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Annual mileage (km)



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Cost

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Annual mileage (km)


High incomeDiesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh Diesel price of USD 0.9 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh

Low incomeDiesel price of USD 1.4 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh Diesel price of USD 0.9 /L, electricity price of USD 0.13 /kWh

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EV)

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/km

)

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dif

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CE

-BEV

) (U

SD/k

m)


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EV)

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/km

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-BEV

) (U

SD/k

m)


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Battery price:

Global EV deployment under the NPS and the EV30@30 scenario

The EV30@30 Scenario sees 228 million EVs (excluding two- and three-wheelers), mostly LDVs, on the road by

2030. This is about 100 million more than in the New Policies Scenario, which is dominated by PHEVs.

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

2017 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

n v

ehic

les

New Policies Scenario

PLDVs - BEV PLDVs - PHEV LCVs - BEV LCVs - PHEV Buses - BEV Buses - PHEV Trucks - BEV Trucks - PHEV

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

2017 2020 2025 2030

EV30@30 Scenario

Global EV deployment under the NPS and the EV30@30 scenario

The EV30@30 Scenario sees 228 million EVs (excluding two- and three-wheelers), mostly LDVs, on the road by

2030. This is about 100 million more than in the New Policies Scenario, which is dominated by PHEVs.

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

2017 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

n v

ehic

les


PLDVs - BEV PLDVs - PHEV LCVs - BEV LCVs - PHEV Buses - BEV Buses - PHEV Trucks - BEV Trucks - PHEV

0 20 40 60 80

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2017 2020 2025 2030

EV30@30 Scenario

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2017 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

n v

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les


0 20 40 60 80

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2017 2020 2025 2030

EV30@30 Scenario

LCVs - PHEV

Asia

Implications

https://webstore.iea.org/global-ev-outlook-2018

Download the full report at:

Electricity demand

Oil demand displacement

CO2 emissions

Power distribution challenges

Total Cost of Ownership

Battery technology development

Battery demand projection

Material demand implications

www.iea.orgIEA

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