global fixed income bulletin caution going into the …...global fixed income bulletin caution going...

FIXED INCOME | GLOBAL FIXED INCOME TEAM | MACRO INSIGHT | OCTOBER 2016

Outlook

• Looking in the near term, we continue to expect an environment of dampened interest-rate volatility, which means a good environment for carry. We expect contrasting forces of slow but stable global growth but perhaps higher inflation expectations to keep long-end rates trading in a range with a slight upward bias. However, given ongoing policy reconsiderations at central banks and a predilection to believe global growth will be higher next year, we are wary of sharp curve steepening and think underweights in risk-free rates provide a good hedge to carry-oriented strategies.

• We remain optimistic about the prospects for emerging markets (EM) fixed income for the remainder of the year as fundamentals, technicals and the macro environment remain supportive. The various factors both pushing and pulling investors into EM fixed income remain in place: Developed market yields remain very low, economic data in EM appears to have stabilized, fears of multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes have subsided and concerns of a sharp slowdown in China have diminished. However, U.S. elections reflect a major event risk for some key EMs and the outlook for global trade.

• Accommodative policy and low global yields remain supportive of global credit, particularly U.S. credit, and we continue to believe the strong technical environment in global credit markets suggests a slow grind tighter into year-end. We remain cautious, however, as we enter the last quarter of 2016, and continue to watch for potential risks.

With central banks acting as such dominant forces in markets post-crisis, all eyes were back on central banks in September. After a rocky start, asset prices ended relatively unchanged on the month. In the beginning of the month, fears of a Fed hike led to weakness in risky assets and sovereign yields briefly broke out of their range to trade higher. However, a neutral Fed pushed yields back down. At their September meeting, the

Global Fixed Income Bulletin

Caution Going Into the Fourth Quarter

The views and opinions expressed are those of the portfolio management team as of October 2016, and are subject to change based on market, economic, and other conditions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Outlook

2 Interest Rates & Currency Outlook

3 EM Outlook

3 Credit Outlook

3 Securitized Outlook

4 Market Summary

5 Developed Markets

6 Emerging Markets

7 External

7 Domestic

7 Corporate

7 Corporate Credit

9 Securitized Products

2

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME BULLETIN

MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT | FIXED INCOME


Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered their expectations for future rate hikes once again, with only one hike projected for 2016. The meeting confirms our belief that the Fed will normalize at a slow pace, minimizing potential market volatility. As a result, risky asset prices recovered, with rising oil prices providing a further boost towards the end of the month.

Central bank attitudes toward negative interest rates seem to be evolving, partially on the back of criticism from market participants that the costs are at least as high as the benefits. Regardless of the truth, central bank behavior is being influenced. For example, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) somewhat surprised the market by not cutting rates into deeper negative territory while announcing a reformulation of monetary policy. Instead of cutting front-end rates more negative at the September meeting, the BoJ announced it will make more flexible QE purchases to shape the entire yield curve while “pegging” 10-year yields at zero. The adoption of “yield curve control” is a tacit admission that negative rate and asset purchases policies, which caused much flattening of the yield curve, have become unproductive. They have hurt bank profitability and, therefore, reduced banks’ propensity to lend, tightening credit conditions. In addition, it is not clear consumer or corporate behavior is much influenced by even lower negative yields. Now, policy will be geared toward steepening yield curves and supporting banks. This should be a positive development for the banks, a sector that we have favored and the economy as stronger economic growth and rising inflation expectations are often correlated with a steepening yield curve.

If a central bank focus on steepening yield curves increases inflation expectations, long-end yields could rise further. After many years of sub-par inflation, we see forces aligning for higher inflation over the medium term. If oil

prices continue to be stable, their negative drag on CPI should fall in the upcoming months. On the policy front, the BoJ, in many ways, a vanguard amongst central banks in terms of experimenting with alternative monetary policy strategies, has explicitly committed, in a forward guidance context, to relax its 2 percent inflation targets and allow inflation to overshoot and stay above target in a stable manner before it reigns in its monetary policy easing. We believe this is a significant policy signal and is aimed at increasing inflation expectations. Moreover, more fiscal stimulus is in the pipeline, having started in Canada and Japan, and now looking likely in the U.S. Thus, many of the cyclical deflationary headwinds are starting to dissipate. And in fact, if the recent upswelling of anti-globalization sentiments actually disrupts global trade, we could see a structural rise in inflation over the coming years, though this is still highly uncertain.

Looking in the near term, we continue to expect an environment of dampened interest rate volatility, meaning no breakouts to higher ranges, which means a good environment for carry. Central banks should continue to act to dampen volatility by resisting efforts to talk or act tough when market volatility rises. We believe that EM, particularly EM local bonds, securitized products and high yield (HY), should all do well in a stable rates environment. However, given all the ongoing policy reconsiderations at major central banks, we are wary of sharp curve steepening and think underweights in risk-free rates provide a good hedge to these risks. In summary, we continue to pursue carry opportunities but are more cautious in our attitude toward risk taking compared to the summer.

Interest Rates and Currency Outlook Given the relative lethargy of the global economy and ongoing uncertainties around the impact of the China slowdown, Fed tightening and Brexit,

we expect the Fed to do all it can to implement a “dovish” hiking path. In our opinion, longer-maturity Treasuries are shaped more by technical forces related to global risk premia, which we think could reverse and drive yields higher. In light of these forces and market realities, we remain modestly underweight U.S. duration although overweight elsewhere, such as in EM. We also believe that current market pricing of inflation through Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) underestimates the potential for higher inflation.

We expect continued European Central Bank (ECB) purchases to pressure euro periphery real yields lower, in order to bring about the necessary financial and economic rebalancing to increase inflation expectations. Based on this view, we continue to like inflation-protected bonds in Italy and Spain and are slightly negative on eurozone duration, although we do not expect longer-maturity core eurozone yields to break out of recent ranges.

We expect that a China-related commodity-based slowdown and ongoing weakness in dairy prices should contribute toward easy monetary policy in New Zealand and continue to be overweight this market. In our opinion, EM assets remain attractive in this low-yielding, easy money world. Central European bonds remain attractive, as does Indonesia and Argentina. We are tactically positive on Brazil, pending confirmation that political change will result in lasting reform.

In terms of currency positioning, we see a weaker dollar versus selected currencies in the near future, given a dovish Fed—although the dollar could strengthen in a risk-off scenario. We have exposure to where we see value, including the Norwegian kroner. Norway has been one of the only G10 countries to experience above-target inflation, while the currency has depreciated quite a lot in the past few

3

CAUTION GOING INTO THE FOURTH QUARTER

FIXED INCOME | MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT


years. We are underweight the British pound in anticipation of deteriorating growth caused by Brexit uncertainties and the Japanese yen on the back of the new steepening yield curve bias of the BoJ.

EM OutlookEM fixed income assets posted positive performance, as investors allocated $17.6 billion to EM fixed income1 during a month in which they navigated key monetary policy meetings, political events and changes in sovereign credit ratings. In a move widely expected by investors, Moody’s downgraded Turkey’s foreign currency debt credit rating to below investment grade (IG). Meanwhile, Hungary’s credit rating moved in the opposite direction as S&P upgraded the country’s external debt credit rating to BBB-. EM assets started the month off weaker as volatility increased and yield curves steepened on concerns of a rate hike by the Fed, which were ultimately unfounded. Valuations, however, recovered into month-end with risk assets buoyed by stabilizing EM economic activity and energy prices.

We remain optimistic about the prospects for EM fixed income for the remainder of the year as fundamentals, technicals and the macro environment remain supportive. The various factors both pushing and pulling investors into EM fixed income remain in place: developed market yields remain very low, economic data in EM appears to have stabilized, fears of multiple Fed rate hikes have subsided, and concerns of a sharp slowdown in China have diminished. We believe that EM assets could well absorb a Fed rate hike later this year and early next year; however, assets remain vulnerable to rate hikes driven by a surge in inflation. The EM/DM growth differential has stabilized and could potentially recover in favor of EM if the negative growth impacts from Brazil and

Russia lessen. China’s growth slowdown is likely to continue in the medium term, with short-term growth prospects reliant on continued fiscal and monetary policy support. U.S. elections reflect a major event risk for some key EMs and the outlook for global trade.

Credit OutlookSeptember saw a divergence between IG and HY performance, and an outperformance in U.S. credit within both of these asset classes. Global credit markets continued to benefit from the technical support afforded by accommodative central bank policy throughout September, and this mitigated some of the negative news flow throughout the month. Depressed global yields continued to attract foreign buyers in the Unites States, leading to an outperformance in U.S. credit. Additionally, lower-rated credit outperformed throughout global credit markets, as investors continued to reach for yield. Throughout the month, central bank meetings, European bank concerns, commodity price action and the U.S. Presidential debate dominated the news flow, and increased credit volatility after a very quiet August.

While policy and flows remain supportive of global credit, particularly U.S. credit, suggesting a slow grind tighter into year-end, we remain cautious, however, as we enter the last quarter of 2016. Several risk factors remain on the horizon: further challenges in the financial system, as seen with Deutsche Bank’s profitability issues in September, is one such risk factor. In addition, we remain focused on weakening credit fundamentals, another collapse in oil prices and the potential for less central bank support. While we continue to monitor these potential risks, we believe the robust technical environment, particularly in the U.S., will continue to dominate the price-action in global credit into year-end.

Securitized OutlookWe remain underweight agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) given the historically low nominal spreads and low option-adjusted spreads, which combined with near-record low mortgage rates should meaningfully increase prepayment risks and option costs. Agency MBS have performed reasonably well in 2016, driven largely by increased demand for liquid and high credit quality spread products. However, we believe credit-sensitive mortgage securities currently offer better risk-adjusted return profiles and cash flow carry.

We believe that non-agency MBS remains one of the more stable and attractive fixed income asset classes. Given the attractive carry, improving fundamentals and shrinking net supply, we remain overweight the non-agency MBS sector. Non-agency MBS offers spreads of 150-225 basis points (bps) above Treasuries for IG bonds, and 250-300 bps for senior non-IG bonds on a loss-adjusted basis.2 We remain positive on the U.S. housing market, given the modest strength of the U.S. economy, continued low mortgage rates and above-average home affordability. From a supply perspective, we project outstanding non-agency MBS to decline by $70 billion to $80 billion in 2016, while new securitizations are projected to only amount to $30 billion to $40 billion.

We remain cautiously overweight commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). CMBS has underperformed most credit sectors in 2016, and sponsorship for the sector still feels soft, but we expect that commercial real estate fundamental conditions will remain strong as long as unemployment remains low and the U.S. economy continues its moderate growth. We believe CMBS is positioned to perform well and recoup its relative underperformance as a result of these healthy economic

1 Source: JP Morgan. Data as of September 30, 2016. 2 Source: MSIM, Data as of September 30, 2016.

4




conditions. However, there are some attendant risks. We have some concerns over supply/demand dynamics, given the recent spread volatility and our expectations of future increases in new origination and issuance. We also have some concerns over late 2015 and 2016 vintage origination CMBS due to the substantial increase in property values over the last few years. Overall, we favor more seasoned CMBS issues, which have benefited from recent property price appreciation, over newly originated deals which may have somewhat inflated property valuations as part of their underwriting. Finally, while we expect continued volatility in CMBS in 2016, we still believe that CMBS offers attractive yields and should continue to benefit from improving fundamental market conditions. Consequently, while we remain overweight, we are limiting our overweight to a manageable level depending on portfolio risk profiles, given the increased volatility and mark-to-market risk in this sector.

In Europe, we have decreased our overweight positioning to reflect a more moderate outlook for MBS and CMBS. Spreads are now tighter than pre-Brexit levels, even though we believe fundamental conditions have more uncertainty in the wake of the Brexit vote. Overall, we remain positive on the sector, given the belief that the ECB and Bank of England (BoE) will continue to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future, and that both the European economies and more importantly the respective real estate markets, will benefit from these accommodative policies. New residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and CMBS issuance remains disappointingly light in Europe, but we are still finding a number of attractive seasoned opportunities. As long as the fundamental conditions remain positive with low rates and rising real estate

prices, we continue to like the European RMBS and CMBS markets.

Market SummaryIn September, yield curves in the U.S., U.K. and Europe generally steepened.3 The dollar sold off versus global currencies after the FOMC meeting mid-month, while oil-related currencies gained on the back of rising oil prices.

Over the month, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 1 bp, while the 2s10s curve steepened by 5 bps.4 Germany’s 10-year

yield decreased 5 bps, while the two-year yield increased 2 bps.5 Declining political risk led the 10-year yields of Spain to decrease by 13 bps, while rising politic risks associated with the electoral reform referendum led yields in Italy to rise by 4 bps.6 Portugal’s 10-year yield increased 29 bps and Greece’s 10-year government yields increased 18 bps.7 Japanese government bond (JGB) 10-year yield decreased 3 bps, while the 30-year yield rose 3 bps in the month, ending at 46 bps.8

DISPLAY 1Asset Performance Year-to-DateReturns through 9/30/2016

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Japan Nikkei 225Euro Stoxx (Euro)

Dollar indexEuro Stoxx (USD)

CopperEUR vs. USD

ML US Mortgage MasterJapan 10yr gov. bondsItaly 10yr gov. bondsBarcap Euro IG Corp

MSCI developed equitiesML Euro HY Constrained

US 10 year TreasuryS&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index

US S&P 500German 10y Bund

Barcap US IG CorpSpain 10yr gov. bonds

MSCI emerging equitiesUK 10yr gov. bonds

JPM External EM DebtML US HY

JPM Local EM DebtJPY vs. USD

GSCI soft commoditiesGold

Brent crude oil

11.6

5.4

7.3

13.815.015.317.1

31.6

10.6

24.021.6

9.28.87.87.77.4

6.0

3.93.73.53.0

-3.2

-12.0

18.8

6.1

-1.3

-4.8

Note: U.S. dollar-based performance. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream. Data as of September 30, 2016. The indexes are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See page 14 for index definitions.

3 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of September 30, 2016.4 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of September 30, 2016.



5




The dollar declined against most G10 currencies. The euro gained 0.7 percent, while the British pound depreciated by 1.3 percent. The Japanese yen appreciated by 2.1 percent for the month after the BoJ chose not to cut rates or increase QE purchases.9 Crude oil (Brent) prices increased in the month from $47 to $49.10 As a result, the Norwegian Kroner and Russian ruble gained 4.3 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively.11

Developed Markets In the U.S., the Fed voted to keep rates unchanged at the September meeting. The median projections for the Fed funds rate, or the “dots,” were brought down to 0.625 for 2016, 1.125 for 2017, and 1.875 for 2018. This means one hike this year, two hikes next year and three hikes for 2018. The long run funds rate decreased from 3 percent to 2.9 percent. In the statement, the committee mentioned that the case for an increased in rates has strengthened but it decided for this meeting to wait for further evidence. Data was in general weaker in August. August non-farm payrolls increased 151,000 versus expectations of 180,000, although June non-farm payrolls were revised higher to 275,000 from 255,000.12 The unemployment rate stayed at 4.9 percent, above consensus of 4.8 percent, as the participation rate stayed at 62.8 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 2.4 percent.13 ISM manufacturing index decreased to 49.4 in August, below expectations of 52. GDP figures for the second quarter were revised 0.3 higher to 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, above consensus expectations of 1.3 percent. Headline CPI rose to 1.1 percent from 0.8 percent and core CPI was 2.3 percent for August.14

In the eurozone, the ECB left policy unchanged at the September meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi made no mention of possible extension of the

asset purchase program, which expires in March 2017, which disappointed markets. In terms of survey data, eurozone manufacturing PMI came in at 51.7 in August, no change from July, and slightly below expectations of 51.8.15 Eurozone GDP for second-quarter 2016 was unrevised at 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, in line with consensus. Eurozone inflation was 0.2 percent for August, unchanged from the previous month.16

In the U.K., the BoE voted 9-0 to keep policy unchanged. The bank maintained an easing bias. In terms of data, headline CPI inflation was 0.6 in July, up from June and above consensus of 0.5 percent.17 The unemployment rate’s three-month average stayed at 4.9 percent in June. GDP figures for the second quarter were unrevised at 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, in line with consensus. U.K. manufacturing PMI decreased for a second month to 48.2 in July, from 49.1

DISPLAY 2Government Bond Yields for Major Economies

COUNTRY

2YR YIELD

LEVEL (%)

MONTH CHANGE

(BPS)

5YR YIELD

LEVEL (%)

MONTH CHANGE

(BPS)

10YR YIELD

LEVEL (%)

MONTH CHANGE

(BPS)

Australia 1.55 11 1.60 8 1.91 8

Belgium -0.64 -6 -0.47 -4 0.14 -4

Canada 0.52 -5 0.62 -5 1.00 -3

Denmark -0.53 0 -0.36 -4 0.01 -3

France -0.64 -6 -0.44 -5 0.19 1

Germany -0.68 -7 -0.58 -7 -0.12 -5

Ireland -0.46 -44 -0.24 -9 0.33 -10

Italy -0.11 -3 0.26 1 1.19 4

Japan -0.29 -9 -0.25 -7 -0.09 -3

Netherlands -0.65 -5 -0.47 -5 0.00 -4

New Zealand 1.89 8 1.94 12 2.27 3

Norway 0.53 -32 0.73 -76 1.21 12

Portugal 0.40 -13 1.91 1 3.33 29

Spain -0.22 -4 0.04 -9 0.88 -13

Sweden -0.67 -4 -0.37 -1 0.17 7

Switzerland -0.94 -8 -0.84 -6 -0.55 -7

United Kingdom 0.10 -4 0.22 1 0.75 10

United States 0.76 -4 1.15 -5 1.59 1

Source: Bloomberg LP. Data as of September 30, 2016.

9 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of September 30, 2016.10 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of September 30, 2016.11 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of September 30, 2016.



6




in June, below expectations of 49.1.18

In Japan, the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged but introduced “yield curve control.” The yield curve policy will allow more flexible bond purchases aimed to keep the JGB curve at around current levels, targeting a yield of 0 percent for the 10-year. In addition, Bank Governor Kuroda stated that the BoJ will continue to be in easing mode until inflation moves above the 2 percent target and stays there in a stable manner. On the data front, manufacturing PMI was 50.4 for September, up from 49.5 in August. The second-quarter GDP figure was 0.7 quarter-to-quarter, above consensus expectations of 0.2. The August core national CPI (ex-Food & Energy) came in at 0.2 percent, down from 0.3 in July but in line with expectations.19

Emerging Markets In a move widely expected by investors, Moody’s downgraded Turkey’s foreign currency debt credit rating to below investment grade (Ba1 from Baa3). The move was based on the “increase in risks related to sizeable external funding requirements” and a weakening of economic growth and institutional strength following the purge of employees following the failed coup in July. Although the downgrade was expected and mostly priced in, Turkish assets fell 1-2 percent as ratings-sensitive investors began to trim holdings on the news. Hungary’s credit rating moved in the opposite direction as S&P upgraded the country’s external debt credit rating to BBB-/Stable from BB+. The upgrade was driven by stronger-than-expected economic performance

and fiscal rectitude, which has reduced external vulnerabilities. Following the news, Hungarian officials announced plans to change the financing of state debt. Investors believe the country will continue to increase its issuance of local currency debt while reducing the amount of U.S. dollar- and euro-denominated issuance to reduce external vulnerabilities.

In Latin America, Mexico’s state-owned oil company PEMEX issued new U.S. dollar-denominated bonds and initiated a liability management exercise to extend the company’s debt profile. Mexico’s Finance Minister (FM) Luis Videgaray was replaced by former Social Security Minister, and previous FM, Jose Meade, for political reasons. However, the move is not expected to hamper fiscal consolidation efforts. The Mexican government reiterated its commitment to fiscal consolidation and increased its primary surplus target from +0.2 percent to +0.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), which was in line with market expectations. This action was viewed as the bare minimum and the government must take more concrete steps in the fiscal consolidation effort to convince ratings agencies and investors. Venezuela took steps to improve its liquidity position by offering a debt swap for bonds issued by the state-owned oil company PDVSA. Investors were asked to swap bonds maturing in 2018 for longer-term bonds collateralized by a portion of its equity position in PDVSA’s downstream gasoline refiner Citgo. After the initial offering was rebuffed by investors, the company added sweeteners to the deal, hoping to persuade investors to tender a majority of the issuance and thereby terming out upcoming maturity payments. In Brazil, the ongoing Lava Jato corruption investigation claimed former finance ministers Guido Mantega and Antonio Palocci, who were arrested.

DISPLAY 3Currency Monthly Changes versus U.S. DollarCurrency Monthly Change vs. USD (+ = appreciation)

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10Mexico

UKBrazil

MalaysiaCanadaSweden

SingaporeNew Zealand

EuroHungary

South KoreaSwitzerland

IndonesiaAustralia

JapanPoland

ColombiaChile

RussiaNorway

South Africa

-3.1

2.0

-1.3

-0.7

2.12.2

3.13.4

7.4

1.6

4.34.0

1.2

0.7

1.3

0.5

1.2

-0.1-0.2-0.2

-1.1

% Change

Source: Bloomberg LP. Data as of September 30, 2016. Note: Positive change means appreciation of the currency against the U.S. dollar.

18 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of September 30, 2016. 19 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of September 30, 2016.

7




ExternalEM external sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt returned 0.34 percent in the month, bringing year-to-date performance to 15.04 percent, as measured by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index.20 Lower-rated, higher-yielding, bonds outpaced IG bonds in the month, led by Venezuela. Debt from Mongolia outperformed on hopes that the country would seek a deal with the IMF to help address its large fiscal deficit. Bonds from Ghana, Croatia, South Africa, Ecuador and Iraq also outperformed the broader market, while those from Mexico, Vietnam and Pakistan underperformed.

DomesticEM domestic debt returned 2.02 percent in the month, bringing year-to-date performance to 17.07 percent, as measured by the JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index.21 EM currencies strengthened 0.90 percent versus the U.S. dollar and EM bonds returned 1.12 percent in local terms.22 Currency performance versus the U.S. dollar was the swing factor for many countries as bonds from South Africa, Colombia, Russia, Chile and Indonesia outperformed the broader market. Bonds from the Philippines, Mexico and Malaysia fell as currency weakness versus the USD exacerbated weak local bond performance. Assets in the Philippines were pressured on negative sentiment after President Rodrigo Duterte’s outward hostility after international rebukes regarding continued his bloody crackdown on drug dealers and users.

CorporateEM corporate debt returned 0.15 percent in the month, bringing year-to-date performance to 11.11 percent, as measured by the JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index.23 Higher-yielding, lower-quality companies

outperformed higher-rated companies over the month. From a regional perspective Africa (South Africa), Europe (Hungary, Kazakhstan) and Asia (China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia) outperformed, while the Middle East (Qatar, UAE) and Latin America (Jamaica, Mexico) underperformed. From a sector perspective, companies in the Transport, Metals & Mining, Infrastructure, and Oil & Gas sectors outperformed the broader market, while those in the TMT, Industrial and Consumer sectors lagged.

Corporate Credit The U.S. HY market had another good month in September as a semi-dovish statement by the Fed and the BoJ caused markets to continue their reach for yield. U.S. HY produced 0.67% in total returns,

and 0.54% in excess returns.24 Easing macroeconomic concerns, an improving commodities backdrop, accommodative central banks and low global yields continue to support the U.S. high-yield asset class. Additionally, the OPEC news fueled positive sentiment in the high-yield market in September, as the potential for an offset of weak fundamentals caused commodity-weighted sectors to trade higher. Similar to U.S. IG, lower-rated HY bonds traded better than higher-rated HY risk, as CCC-rated credits outperformed the broader HY market. Commodity-weighted sectors benefited from the rise in oil prices, as exploration, production and metals outperformed. In contrast, idiosyncratic headlines weighed on HY pharmaceuticals and aerospace & defense. HY issuance remains active, with $25.2 billion pricing in USD-denominated HY debt in

DISPLAY 4EM External and Local Spread Changes

COUNTRYUSD SPREAD

(BPS)MTD CHANGE

(BPS)INDEX LOCAL

YIELD (%)MTD CHANGE

(BPS)

Brazil 324 9 11.2 -50

Colombia 221 -11 6.9 -45

Hungary 155 -20 1.9 -13

Indonesia 229 -5 7.1 -11

Malaysia 195 -12 3.5 4

Mexico 294 36 6.2 21

Peru 154 -8 5.7 -9

Philippines 102 9 4.5 22

Poland 92 9 2.4 16

Russia 219 -1 8.2 -7

South Africa 291 -21 9.1 -34

Turkey 322 9 9.2 -20

Venezuela 2053 -403 – –

Source: JP Morgan. Data as of September 30, 2016.

20 Source: JP Morgan. Data as of September 30, 2016.21 Source: JP Morgan. Data as of September 30, 2016.

22 Source: JP Morgan. Data as of September 30, 2016.23 Source: JP Morgan. Data as of September 30, 2016.

24 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.

8




September.25 Despite a robust primary market, it is notable that 70% of HY new issuance has been used to refinance existing debt, and net-new volume remains low.26 The European HY market underperformed the U.S. HY market, as it generated a -0.56% total return in September.27 The top-performing sectors in European HY were integrated energy (0.8%) and media entertainment (1.5%).28

U.S. IG credit widened two bps in September as heavy new issue supply, weakness in financials and impending money market reform pushed credit markets wider.29 U.S. IG credit ended the month at 131 bps and underperformed duration-matched treasuries by seven bps.30 Within the IG universe, financials underperformed industrials, as European bank concerns filtered into the U.S. market. Specifically, financials widened 6 bps on the month, while industrials widened 2 bps.31 The majority of underperformance within financials was in the banking sub-sector, which widened 7 bps in September.32 Within industrials, commodity-sensitive sectors such as metals, and energy outperformed as rising commodity prices supported price action. This further led to the outperformance of BBB-rated credit, despite pressured returns in credit overall, while single-A credits underperformed the general market.33 IG supply for September was $155.3 billion, a new record for the calendar month.34 U.S. IG supply was dominated by industrials (pricing $79.4 billion of total IG debt), as bank issuance was sidelined due to financial-sector weakness.35 Record-setting investment grade supply in both August and September has been largely fueled by issuers terming out their front-end debt ahead of money-

market reform scheduled to take effect in October. Despite heavy issuance in September, new issues performed well with a 4 bps average tightening on the break, and an average concession of 1 bp.36

Following the active primary markets we saw in August and September in the U.S., we anticipate a reduction in supply in October with estimated volumes at $50 billion-$70 billion.37

DISPLAY 5Credit Sector Changes

SECTOR

USD SPREAD

LEVEL (BPS)

MONTH CHANGE

(BPS)

EUR SPREAD

LEVEL (BPS)

MONTH CHANGE

(BPS)

Index Level 138 +3 115 +7

Industrial Basic Industry 187 -3 112 +7

Industrial Capital Goods 106 +4 82 +1

Industrial Consumer Cyclicals 124 +4 105 +7

Industrial Consumer Non Cyclicals 116 +3 89 +3

Industrial Energy 190 -3 114 +9

Industrial Technology 124 +2 74 +4

Industrial Transportation 127 +1 90 +5

Industrial Communications 161 +3 111 +7

Industrial Other 120 +3 145 +9

Utility Electric 131 +2 106 +7

Utility Natural Gas 141 -3 98 +7

Utility Other 153 +0 87 +7

Financial Inst. Banking 129 +7 117 +10

Financial Inst. Brokerage 151 +3 115 +7

Financial Inst. Finance Companies 165 +6 92 +4

Financial Inst. Insurance 151 +1 269 +17

Financial Inst. REITS 156 -4 116 +4

Financial Inst. Other 231 +50 160 +4

Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016. The indexes are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.

25 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.26 Source: JP Morgan. Data as of September 30, 2016.27 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.28 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.29 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of

September 30, 2016.30 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.31 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.32 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.33 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of

September 30, 2016.34 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.35 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.36 Source: BAML. Data as of September 30, 2016.37 Source: BAML. Data as of September 30, 2016.

9




The European high-grade market underperformed the U.S. IG market in September, as it generated excess returns of -31 bps while U.S. IG generated -3 bps in excess returns.38 Financials underperformed the broader European IG market, as fears over Deutsche Bank’s profitability challenges weighed heavily on the financial sector. Financials posted -42 bps in excess returns, followed by utilities (-31 bps), and industrials (-21 bps). The underperformance of European IG relative to U.S. IG in September mirrors the trend we have seen year-to-date 2016, as U.S. excess returns are 3.05% for the year to date, while euro excess returns are 2.45% for the year to date.39 This exemplifies the strong technicals in the U.S. IG market, as low global yields attract foreign buyers in the U.S. The euro-denominated IG market issued €47.2 billion in September, below the €60 billion forecast for the month.40 Nonfinancial credits dominated September supply, as concerns over bank’s capital securities resurfaced. Sterling high-grade issuance remained strong in September, as the market priced 8.3 billion in sterling-denominated IG supply.41

Securitized Products Mortgage credit markets posted strong performance in September, while more rates-sensitive agency MBS were more moderately positive.

Agency MBS marginally outperformed duration equivalent Treasuries despite nominal spreads on current coupon MBS tightening three basis points to 98 bps above interpolated U.S. Treasuries.42 Option-adjusted spreads (OAS) also tightened 3-6 bps over interpolated

Treasuries. The Bloomberg Barclays Capital U.S. Mortgage Index was up 0.27 percent in September and has now returned 3.74 percent year-to-date.43 Thirty-year mortgage rates fell 6 bps to 3.34 percent, just a few bps higher than the record low levels.44 The Fed increased their Agency MBS purchases this month to over $30 billion to compensate for the recent increase in prepayments. The Fed continues to maintain their agency mortgage portfolio at approximately $1.75 trillion.45

Non-agency MBS performed very well again in September with spreads tightening roughly 10 to 20 bps, and the non-agency MBS cash flow performance continuing to improve. Non-agency MBS spreads are now at their tightest levels since 2014 for most securities. Fundamentally, U.S. housing market and mortgage market conditions remain positive. National home prices were up 0.7 percent in July, and are up 5.1 percent over the past year.46 Home prices are up 37 percent nationally from the lows in 2012, and are now less than 1 percent below the peak from July 2006. Existing home sales fell 0.9 percent in August from July but were up 0.8 percent from August 2015.47 Existing home sales have fallen two consecutive months and are at the lowest levels in 2016, but are still near historical highs. New home sales, which tend to be more volatile given their lower absolute numbers relative to existing home sales, were down 7.6 percent in August from July but still up 20.6 percent from August 2015.48 Mortgage performance also remains strong. New defaults were essentially unchanged at a 0.68 percent annual rate in August, but defaults are down from the 0.84 percent level in August 2015.49

With unemployment low, the economy slowly improving, and home prices still recovering from the mortgage crisis almost 10 years ago, we expect mortgage credit performance to continue to improve.

CMBS spreads were mixed in September with AAA-rated CMBS 2-3 bps tighter and BBB-rated CMBS slightly wider during the month. In a month where most credit spreads, particularly mortgage related credit spreads, were meaningfully tighter, the September CMBS performance was an outlier in underperformance. Year-to-date in 2016, CMBS performance has sharply diverged based on position in the capital structure, with AAA-rated CMBS 25-30 bps tighter while BBB-rated issues are 40-75 bps wider for the year.50 New CMBS issuance increased in September with $8 billion in total issuance during the month.

Fundamentally, CMBS performance remains on solid grounds. Commercial real estate prices increased by 0.8 percent in September, and are up 5.2 percent over the course of the past 12 months. After several years of 10+ percent annual increases, the pace of commercial real estate price increases is slowing, but the trajectory remains positive. Commercial real estate prices are 26.5 percent above the previous peak in August 2007.51 While price volatility and supply-demand dynamics for CMBS continue to cause some concerns, the fundamental real estate market conditions underlying the CMBS market appear to be stable.

European MBS spreads were 15-30 bps tighter for non-ECB eligible assets in September and are now tighter than

38 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.39 issuing $79.4 billion of investment grade debt.40 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.41 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.42 Source: Yield Book. Data as of September 30, 2016.

43 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.4 4 S ou r ce : B ank r a te . com . Da t a as o f September 30, 2016.45 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Data as of September 30, 2016.46 Source: S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Data as of September 30, 2016.47 Source: National Association of Realtors. Data

as of September 30, 2016.48 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. Data as of September 30, 2016.49 Source: S&P/Experian First Mortgage Default Index. Data as of September 30, 2016.50 Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Data as of September 30, 2016.5 1 S o u r ce : G r e e n St r e e t . Da t a a s o f September 30, 2016.

10




pre-Brexit levels.52 ECB eligible ABS were roughly 10 bps tighter in spread in September and are 15-25 bps tighter in 2016. ECB ABS purchases remain slow due to limited supply and the ECB

portfolio net shrank by €226 million European ABS in August. The ECB holds €20.1 billion of European ABS.53 European ABS issuance was moderate in September, with roughly €8.0 billion

in new securitizations during the month. 2016 year-to-date securitization issuance totals €62.2 billion, behind the 2015 pace of €63.3 billion through September 2015.54

This material is for use of Professional Clients only, except in the U.S. where the material may be redistributed or used with the general public.

The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time, due to market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all Portfolio Managers at Morgan Stanley Investment Management or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific Morgan Stanley Investment Management product.

Certain information herein is based on data obtained from party sources believed to be reliable. However, we have not verified this information, and we make no representations whatsoever as to its accuracy or completeness.

All information provided has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in a fixed income portfolio. Please be aware that a fixed income portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks.

Fixed income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In the current rising-interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate

changes. In a declining interest rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income.

Certain U.S. government securities purchased by the Strategy, such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. It is possible that these issuers will not have the funds to meet their payment obligations in the future.

Public bank loans are subject to liquidity risk and the credit risks of lower-rated securities.

High-yield securities (“junk bonds”) are lower-rated securities that may have a higher degree of credit and liquidity risk.

Sovereign debt securities are subject to default risk.

Mortgage- and asset-backed securities are sensitive to early prepayment risk and a higher risk of default and may be hard to value and difficult to sell (liquidity risk). They are also subject to credit, market and interest rate risks.

The currency market is highly volatile. Prices in these markets are influenced by, among other things, changing supply and demand for a particular currency; trade; fiscal, money and domestic or foreign exchange control programs and policies; and changes in domestic and foreign interest rates.

Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than the risks generally associated with foreign investments.

Derivative instruments may disproportionately increase losses and have a significant impact on performance. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks.

Restricted and illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk).

Due to the possibility that prepayments will alter the cash flows on Collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), it is not possible to determine in advance their final maturity date or average life. In addition, if the collateral securing the CMOs or any third-party guarantees are insufficient to make payments, the portfolio could sustain a loss.

Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.

5 2 Source : Deutsche Bank . Data as of September 30, 2016.

53 Source: European Central Bank. Data as of September 30, 2016.

5 4 Source : Deutsche Bank . Data as of September 30, 2016.

11




INDEX DEFINITIONS The indexes shown in this report are not meant to depict the performance of any specific investment and the indexes shown do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. The indexes shown are unmanaged and should not be considered an investment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The National Association of Realtors Home Affordability Index compares the median income to the cost of the median home.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care.

The JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global) tracks total returns for traded external debt instruments in the emerging markets, and is an expanded version of the EMBI+. As with the EMBI+, the EMBI Global includes U.S. dollar-denominated Brady bonds, loans and eurobonds with an outstanding face value of at least $500 million.

The JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index is a global, liquid corporate emerging markets benchmark that tracks U.S.-denominated corporate bonds issued by emerging markets entities.

The JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index is a market capitalization weighted, liquid global benchmark for U.S.-dollar corporate emerging market bonds representing Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East/Africa.

The ISM Manufacturing Index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index tracks agency mortgage backed pass-through securities (both fixed-rate and hybrid ARM) guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). The index is constructed by grouping individual TBA-deliverable MBS pools into aggregates or generics based on program, coupon and vintage. Introduced in 1985, the GNMA, FHLMC and FNMA fixed rate indexes for 30- and 15-year securities were backdated to January 1976, May 1977, and November 1982, respectively. In April 2007, agency hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) pass-through securities were added to the index.

The Nikkei 225 Index (Japan Nikkei 225) is a price-weighted index of Japan’s top 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners’ currencies. Italy 10YR govt bonds—Italy Benchmark 10-Year Datastream Government Index. The MSCI World Index (MSCI developed equities) captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. Spain 10YR govt bonds—Spain Benchmark 10-Year Datastream Government Index. The BofA Merrill Lynch European Currency High-Yield Constrained Index (ML Euro HY constrained) is designed to track the performance of euro- and British pound sterling-denominated below investment-grade corporate debt

publicly issued in the eurobond, sterling domestic or euro domestic markets by issuers around the world. The S&P 500® Index (U.S. S&P 500) measures the performance of the large cap segment of the U.S. equities market, covering approximately 75 percent of the U.S. equities market. The Index includes 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The JPMorgan Government Bond Index Emerging Markets (JPM External EM Debt) tracks local currency bonds issued by Emerging Market governments. The Index is positioned as the investable benchmark that includes only those countries that are accessible by most of the international investor base (excludes China and India as of September 2013). UK 10YR govt bonds—UK Benchmark 10-Year Datastream Government Index. For the following Datastream government bond indexes, benchmark indexes are based on single bonds. The bond chosen for each series is the most representative bond available for the given maturity band at each point in time. Benchmarks are selected according to the accepted conventions within each market. Generally, the benchmark bond is the latest issue within the given maturity band; consideration is also given to yield, liquidity, issue size and coupon. German 10YR bunds—Germany Benchmark 10-Year Datastream Government Index; Japan 10YR govt bonds—Japan Benchmark 10-Year Datastream Government Index; and 10YR U.S. Treasury—U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Datastream Government Index.

The BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities (ML U.S. Mortgage Master) Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated fixed rate and hybrid residential mortgage pass-through securities publicly issued by U.S. agencies in the U.S. domestic market. The S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index (S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index) is designed to reflect the performance of the largest facilities in the leveraged loan market. The Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporate Index (Barclays Euro IG Corporate) is an index designed to reflect the performance of the euro-denominated investment-grade corporate bond market. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Index (Barclays U.S. IG Corp) is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment-grade, fixed rate, taxable, corporate bond market. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch United States High Yield Master II Constrained Index (Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield) is a market value-weighted index of all domestic and Yankee high-yield bonds, including deferred interest bonds and payment-in-kind securities. Its securities have maturities of one year or more and a credit rating lower than BBB-/Baa3, but are not in default. JPY vs USD—Japanese Yen Total return versus USD. Euro vs USD—Euro Total return versus USD. MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI emerging equities) captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index (MSCI Asia ex-Japan) captures large and mid-cap representation across two of three Developed Markets countries (excluding Japan) and eight Emerging Markets countries in Asia. The S&P GSCI Softs (GSCI soft commodities) Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI that measures the performance of only the soft commodities, weighted on a world production basis. In 2012, the S&P GSCI Softs index included the following commodities: coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton. The Dow Jones Commodity Index Gold (Gold) is designed to track the gold market through futures contracts. The JPMorgan Government Bond Index—Emerging Markets (JPM local EM debt) tracks local currency bonds issued by Emerging Market governments. The Index is positioned as the investable benchmark that includes only those countries that are accessible by most of the international investor base (Excludes China and India as of September 2013. The ICE Brent Crude futures contract (Brent crude oil) is a deliverable contract based on EFP

Explore our new site at www.morganstanley.com/im

© 2016 Morgan Stanley. All rights reserved. 1614020 Exp. 10/11/2017 EMEA CRC N/A 8714254_KC_1016 Lit-Link: FIBULLETIN 10/16

delivery with an option to cash settle. The S&P GSCI Copper Index (Copper), a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the copper commodity market.

This communication is only intended for and will be only distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations.

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Prior to investing, investors should carefully review the strategy’s/product’s relevant offering document. There are important differences in how the strategy is carried out in each of the investment vehicles.

EMEA: This communication was issued and approved in the United Kingdom by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited, 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for distribution to Professional Clients only and must not be relied upon or acted upon by Retail Clients (each as defined in the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s rules).

Financial intermediaries are required to satisfy themselves that the information in this document is suitable for any person to whom they provide this document in view of that person’s circumstances and purpose. Morgan Stanley Investment Management shall not be liable for, and accepts no liability for, the use or misuse of this document by any such financial intermediary. If such a person considers an investment, he should always ensure that he has satisfied himself that he has been properly advised by that financial intermediary about the suitability of an investment.

U.S.: A separately managed account may not be suitable for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the Strategy include a number of securities and will not necessarily track the performance of any index. Please consider the investment objectives, risks and fees of the Strategy carefully before investing. A minimum asset level is required. For important information about the investment manager, please refer to Form ADV Part 2.

Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the funds carefully before investing. The prospectuses contain this and other information about the funds. To obtain a prospectus, please download one at morganstanley.com/im or call 1-800-548-7786. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Morgan Stanley Distribution, Inc. serves as the distributor for Morgan Stanley funds.

NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NOT BANK GUARANTEED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A DEPOSIT

Hong Kong: This document has been issued by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited for use in Hong Kong and shall only be made available to “professional investors” as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 571). The contents of this document have not been reviewed nor approved by any regulatory authority including the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Accordingly, save where an exemption is available under the relevant law, this document shall not be issued, circulated, distributed, directed at, or made available to, the public in Hong Kong.

Singapore: This document should not be considered to be the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to the public or any member of the public in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor under section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (SFA), (ii) to a “relevant person” (which includes an accredited investor) pursuant to section 305 of the SFA, and such distribution is in accordance with the conditions specified in section 305 of the SFA; or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA.

Australia: This publication is disseminated in Australia by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Limited ACN: 122040037, AFSL No. 314182, which accept responsibility for its contents. This publication, and any access to it, is intended only for “wholesale clients” within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.

All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright law.

global fixed income bulletin caution going into the …...global fixed income bulletin caution going...

Documents