global food security - challenges and long-term perspective
TRANSCRIPT
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Global Food Security
Challenges and long-term perspective
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Rome, September 2009
Rome, September 2009 2Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Main messages
Hunger in the world is increasing
Crises exacerbate the situation dramatically
Important long-term challenges to agriculture as a source of food and livelihoods
Use emerging consensus to reduce hunger and improve food security governance
Rome, September 2009 3Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Trends in world hunger
Rome, September 2009 4Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
The current economic crisis at the core
At the heel of soaring food prices
Households with depleted coping mechanisms
Global crisis, not locally bound
However, more fundamental causes of hunger• number of hungry has not fallen below 800 million
over the past 40 years
• even in times of economic growth and low food prices
Rome, September 2009 5Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Future challenges and perspectives
Rome, September 2009 6Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Source: UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009
Population growth
Rome, September 2009 7Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Income growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Developing country growth (right-axis)
High-income country growth (right-axis)
Developing country GDP (left-axis)
High-income country GDP (left-axis)
Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009
Rome, September 2009 8Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
How much more needs to be produced by 2050?
255
97
63
23
148
70
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
past
future
past
future
past
future
De
velo
pin
gD
eve
lop
ed
Wo
rld Agricultural production
Rome, September 2009 9Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
9
14
77
21
8
71
30
18
52
25
6
69
5
8
87
2
12
86
-7
17
90
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
WorldDeveloping countries
Latin America
sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
East Asia
Near East / North Africa
Arable land expansion Increases in cropping intensity Yield increases
Sources of growth in crop production
Rome, September 2009 10Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Water resources
Global abundance of water
Local shortages reaching alarming rates
Regions without potential for land and water expansion (Near East and North Africa, South Asia)
Harvested irrigated land to expand by 17%, water withdrawals by 11%.
Rome, September 2009 11Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Feeding the world in 2050
Demand can be met by expanding and better exploiting available resources
Scenario assumes that:• long-standing forces will continue in the long run (e.g.
population, diet shifts, urbanization)• yield gaps can be bridged and new varieties will
further improve the ability of the world to feed itself
Rome, September 2009 12Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
However, many questions remain
Global scenario masks that at least 27 countries will face undernourishment above 5% in 2050
370 million people in developing countries would still be hungry
Several countries seem to have reached the limits of agro-ecological potential to expand agriculture
Rome, September 2009 13Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Five main challenges
Yields/technology
Climate change
Biofuels
Hunger reduction and agricultural transformation
Global food security governance
Rome, September 2009 14Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
The yields challenge
Yield increases have accounted for the majority of production growth in recent decades
Yields and intensification will account for 90% of the growth in crop production
Yield Growth for major grains: • Decline from 1.9 to 0.7 annual growth rate (1961-2007 vs. 2005-2050)• However potential for closing the “yield gap” is high... and achievable
Rome, September 2009 15Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
The technology challenge
Enormous returns to Research & Development (40-50%)
Baseline projections assume a steady growth in yields
But global R&D spending is too low and decreasing• 1981-1991: 2.1% • 1991-2000: 1.1 % (Dev. Countries: 1.9%, Ind. Countries: 0.5% )• Huge disparities: India (6.2%), China (3.9%)
Rome, September 2009 16Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Annual growth rates in agricultural R&D
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Asia & Pacific Latin America& Caribbean
West Asia &North Africa
Developingcountries
High-incomecountries
Ann
ual g
row
th r
ate
(per
cent
age)
1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000
Rome, September 2009 17Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
The technology challenge
R&D adaptation for the needs of smallholders, marginal areas and orphan crops
Incentive structure and resource mobilization to ensure the right technologies for problems of the future
Private-public partnerships for agricultural R&D
Developing gender-balanced systems for spreading knowledge, skills and technology
Rome, September 2009 18Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Impacts of climate change on crop production: vary significantly over time are geographically unevenly distributed
Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on the global food system are relatively small.
The global balance of food demand and supply is not likely to be challenged until middle of the 21st century.
Autonomous adaptation will offset some warming
Climate change challenge
Rome, September 2009 19Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Climate change challenge
Atmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially increase productivity of current agricultural land
Climate change, will have a clearly negative impact in the second half of the 21st century
Impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere
Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near future
Rome, September 2009 20Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Climate change challenge
Remove key constraints to adaptation
Explore key synergies between food security, adaptation and mitigation (technological, institutional, financing )
Using payments for carbon as an important source of funding for developing country agriculture
Rome, September 2009 21Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
The biofuels challenge
Impacts of biofuels larger in the short and medium run as second generation is developed
Hunger reduction hampered by increased biofuel production
Opportunities for producers, but uneven access to markets
Rome, September 2009 22Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Agricultural transformation challenge
Agriculture’s role beyond food production• As an engine of economic growth and poverty reduction• As an engine of growth for the rural economy• Even in transition countries key role to reduce poverty
Share of agriculture generally declines with development• Agro-industrialization • Erosion of the comparative advantage of smallholders• Pressure to commercialize or exit the sector
Protect and improve livelihoods during “agricultural transformation”
Rome, September 2009 23Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Governance challenge
Create a system that promotes, supports and sustains food security - especially for the poorest and most marginal
Address structural causes of food insecurity and their institutional and governance dimensions
Improve the management of the world agricultural system
Address climate change and its long and short-term challenges
Ensure sufficient public investment in agriculture, especially in research, extension, infrastructure and biodiversity
Rome, September 2009 24Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Towards a global food security governance
Improve coordination and policy cohesion between all key stakeholders
Better address complex and interrelated issues of global food security
Ensure that declarations to end hunger are converted to concrete actions
Rome, September 2009 25Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Conclusions
Agriculture and food security back on the policy agenda
Right to Food accepted as a framework for global action
Rights to resources frameworks arising as a result
Reform of global food security governance
Increase public and private investment
Sound agricultural policies and strategies
Social protection and safety nets
Strengthen smallholder access to resources
Explore options for coordinated risk management
Rome, September 2009 26Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
For more information
For more information, please visit:
http://www.fao.org/economic/es-policybriefs