global futures and strategic foresight and the impact model keith wiebe international food policy...
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Global Futures and Strategic Foresight
and the IMPACT Model
Keith WiebeInternational Food Policy Research Institute
Workshop on Integrating Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services into Foresight Models
Bioversity, Rome7-8 May 2015
1. Improved modeling tools
• Complete recoding of IMPACT version 3
• Disaggregation geographically and by commodity
• Improved water & crop models• New data management system• Modular framework• Training
2. Stronger community of practice
• 13 CGIAR centers now participating in GFSF
• IFPRI, Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish
• Collaboration with other leading global economic modeling groups through AgMIP
• Role of agricultural technologies
• Africa regional reports• Analyses by CGIAR
centers• CCAFS regional studies• AgMIP global
economic assessments
Rainfed Maize (Africa)
Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato (Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)
3. Improved assessments
4. Informing decision making
• CGIAR centers• CGIAR Research Programs
• RTB, Dryland Cereals, Grain Legumes; Maize, Wheat, Dryland Systems, Livestock & Fish…
• National partners• MENA, S & SE Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Central Asia
• Regional organizations• ASARECA, COMESA, CORAF/WECARD, FANRPAN, FARA, FLAR
• International organizations and donors• OECD, FAO, ADB, IDB, IFAD, WB, BMGF, DFID, USDA
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The IMPACT Global Simulation Model
• International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
• Global partial equilibrium model • Multimarket model• Water models• Crop models• Livestock model• Malnutrition model
IMPACT Model – Schematic
7
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What is new in IMPACT 3?
• Geographic and crop disaggregation (2005 base year)• 58 agricultural commodities
• Prices and markets• Three markets: farm gate, national, international• Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities
• Land allocation to crops• Activity-commodity value chain framework• New water models: hydrology, water basin
management, water stress on crops• Modularity of the IMPACT model “system”
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IMPACT 3 Geography
159
• Countries
154
• Water Basins
320
• Food Production Units
10
Baseline model drivers and results• Core drivers: population, GDP,
land• Changes in technology• Climate change:
• Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate change
• Different assumptions about climate drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways
Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
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2050 Wheat Yields: Climate Change Effects
for Top 10 Wheat Producers
Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Baseline results for SSP1, 2 and 3
Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values)
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
Climate change impacts in 2050
Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values)
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
Climate change impacts and trade
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
Impacts of climate change and trade policy on yields, area, production, exports and prices of five commodities, (% deviation from baseline values in 2050 without climate change)
SSP1, RCP4.5 SSP3, RCP8.5
The role of agricultural technologies
• Baseline to 2050, including climate change
• Linked crop models and economic models
• Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat
• Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger, resource use, efficiency
Source: IFPRI (2014)
Global DSSAT ResultsYield Change (%) – Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline
MAIZE RICE WHEAT
0% 20% 40%
Yield Impact
0% 20% 40%
Yield Impact
0% 20% 40%
Yield Impact
MIROC A1B
Drought Tolerance (DT)
Heat Tolerance (HT)
Integrated Soil Fertility Management (FM)
N Use Efficiency
No-Till (NT)
Precision Agriculture (PA)
Water Harvesting (WH)
Irrigation - Drip
Irrigation - Sprinkler
Organic Agriculture
Crop Protection (Diseases)
Crop Protection (Insects)
Crop Protection (Weeds)
32%
16%
28%
12%
5%
9%
8%
4%
1%
1%
0%
7%
9%
21%
34%
18%
2%
6%
0%
9%
7%
8%
20%
14%
11%
32%
26%
10%
6%
1%
7%
4%
0%
7%
7%
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.
Benefits include reduced N losses, increased N productivity.
Efficient use of resources:Change (%) in N Productivity – Maize, Rice, Wheat. Irrigated vs. Rainfed, 2050 vs. Baseline (DSSAT)
(Compared to the business-as-usual)
29% less nitrogen losses 28% more N productivity
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.
Prominent impacts of Improved Irrigation Technologies Increased water savings (less water used) Increased water productivity (more biomass produced per unit water input)
Efficient use of resources :Change in Site-specific Water Use – Irrigated Maize, Wheat
(Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation)
28% less water applied 22% more water productivity
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.
Percent Change in Cultivated Area, Developing Countries & Latin America :2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline
maize rice wheat
-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area
-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area
-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area
Developing
Nitrogen use efficiency
No till
Heat tolerance
Precision agriculture
Integrated soil fertility ..
Crop protection - weeds
Crop protection - diseases
Crop protection - insects
Drought tolerance
Drip irrigation
Water harvesting
Sprinkler irrigation
Latin America Caribbean
Nitrogen use efficiency
No till
Heat tolerance
Precision agriculture
Integrated soil fertility ..
Crop protection - weeds
Crop protection - diseases
Crop protection - insects
Drought tolerance
Drip irrigation
Water harvesting
Sprinkler irrigation
-5.7%
-7.5%
-7.7%
-1.9%
-1.0%
-1.6%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-0.6%
-0.3%
-0.1%
0.0%
-6.8%
-0.2%
-1.4%
-3.2%
-2.5%
-1.0%
-1.1%
-1.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-3.5%
-6.8%
-4.2%
-4.4%
-1.9%
-1.6%
-2.0%
-1.6%
-0.7%
-0.3%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-10.1%
-7.7%
-9.8%
-2.7%
-1.3%
-2.2%
-1.6%
-1.9%
-0.7%
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.1%
-10.5%
-0.4%
-2.2%
-5.0%
-3.9%
-1.6%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-5.1%
-9.9%
-6.1%
-6.7%
-2.9%
-2.4%
-3.0%
-2.4%
-1.0%
-0.5%
-0.1%
-0.3%
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.
Other environmental impactsFlachsbarth et al. (2015)
• Water footprints
• Nitrogen emission rates
• Changes in carbon stocks
• Risk of species extinction
Concluding thoughts
• Foresight modeling is a work in progress• Currently working on a number of improvements
• land use, livestock, fish, nutrition, health, environmental indicators (upstream and downstream)
• Collaboration is critical• To strengthen tools• To strengthen ownership and understanding
• Need to recognize limitations• Goal is to inform decisions
• Results are the beginning of discussion, not the end