global futures forum (washington, d.c.)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation for GFF. February 2012.TRANSCRIPT
Michell Zappa@envisioningtech
Over the last day we have looked at dozens of intriguing emerging technologies and have also started thinking about what they mean for the future of security.
I’m here today to talk a little bit about my approach for looking at these technologies by taking a step back, looking at how they relate, and to envision scenarios we might expect based on current trends.
envisioningtechnology
I’ve published a visualization called “Envisioning Technology”.
ENERGYROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALSSENSORS GEOTECHSPACEINTERFACES UBICOMPINTERNET
Commercialspaceflight
Inductivechargers
Fuel cells
Bio-enhancedfuels
Tidal turbines
Additivemanufacturing
Graphene
Self-healingmaterials
Personalgene sequencing
Organprinting
Smarttoys
Appliancerobots
Volumetric(3D) screens
Flexible screens
Tablets
Boards
Biometricsensors
Depthimaging
Near-fieldcommunication
Pervasivevideo
capture
Speechrecognition
Augmentedreality
Gesturerecognition
Multitouch
4G
Cloudcomputing
Cyber-warfare
Meshnetworking
AI INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH
The key idea is to look at all sorts of emerging technologies.I started by organizing my research across eleven areas, “from bits to atoms”s, to speak.
Machine augmentedcognition
2030
2040
Domesticrobots
Embodiedavatars
Swarmrobotics
Utilityfog
Reprogrammablechips
Skin-embeddedscreens
Retinalscreens
Optogenetics
Neuro-informatics
Immersivevirtual reality
Interplanetaryinternet
Exocortex
Remotepresence
Machine-augmentedcognition
2012
2020
2030
2040
The next step is spreading out the observations on a timeline. We cover speculations for approximately the next 30 years.
ROBOTICSARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
SENSORSINTERFACES UBICOMPINTERNET
Smarttoys
Appliancerobots
Volumetric(3D) screens
Flexible screens
Tablets
Boards
Biometricsensors
Depthimaging
Near-fieldcommunication
Pervasivevideo
capture
Speechrecognition
Augmentedreality
Gesturerecognition
Multitouch
4G
Cloudcomputing
Cyber-warfare
Meshnetworking
Softwareagents
High-frequencytrading
Natural languageinterpretation
Weatherengineering
Sub-orbitalspaceflight
Spacetourism
Multi-segmentedsmart grids
fuels
Piezo-electricity
Photvoltaicglass
Personalfabricators
Meta-materials
Opticalinvisibility cloaks
In-vitromeat
Personalizedmedicine
Smart drugs
Syntheticblood
Roboticsurgery
Self-drivingvehicles
Powered exoskeleton
Unmannedaerial
Molecularassembler
Nanowires
Artificialretinas
Gene therapy
Hybridassisted limbs
Swarmrobotics
Skin-embeddedscreens
Retinalscreens
Optogenetics
Neuro-informatics
Immersivevirtual reality
Remotepresence
Machine augmentedcognition
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2030
2040
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2030
2040
ENERGYROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALSARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
SENSORS GEOTECH QUANTITATIVE FORECASTSSPACEINTERFACES UBICOMPINTERNET
World population 8 billionSource: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
BRICs GDP overtakes the G7Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj
Petabyte storage standardSource: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc
Exabyte storage standardSource: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
Terabit internet speed standardSource: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
World population reaches 9 billionSource: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc
Sources:Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok
Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben
Sources:Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5
Global online population: ± 2 billionConnected devices: ±10 billion
Global online population: 4-5 billionConnected devices: 30-50 billion
$150 Hard disk: ±200 TbStandard RAM: ±750Gb
Global online population: ± 2.5 billionConnected devices: ±15 billion
$ 1.000 computer reaches thecapacity of the human brain
(± 1015 calculations per second)
Verticalfarming
Weatherengineering
Sea-steading
Desalination
Carbonsequestration
Climateengineering
Arcologies
Commercialspaceflight
Sub-orbitalspaceflight
Lunaroutpost
Marsmission
Solarsail
Spaceelevator
Spacetourism
Inductivechargers
Thoriumreactor
Travelingwave reactor
Fuel cells
Multi-segmentedsmart grids
Biomechanicalharvesting
Bio-enhancedfuels
Artificialphotosynthesis
Space-basedsolar power
Piezo-electricity
Photvoltaicglass
Nano-generators
Enernet
Tidal turbines
Programmablematter
Personalfabricators
Molecularassembler
Meta-materials
Additivemanufacturing
Graphene
Opticalinvisibility cloaks
Biomaterials
Carbonnanotubes
Self-healingmaterials
Nanowires
Anti-agingdrugs
Stem-cell treatments
In-vitromeat
Nanomedicine
Artificialretinas
Personalgene sequencing
Syntheticbiology
Personalizedmedicine
Gene therapy
Hybridassisted limbs
Smart drugs
Syntheticblood
Organprinting
Smarttoys
Roboticsurgery
Appliancerobots
Self-drivingvehicles
Domesticrobots
Powered exoskeleton
Embodiedavatars
Swarmrobotics
Utilityfog
Unmannedaerial
vehicles
Fabric-embeddedscreens
Reprogrammablechips
Pico-projectors
Volumetric(3D) screens
Flexible screens
Skin-embeddedscreens
Tablets
Boards
Retinalscreens
Eyewear-embeddedscreens
Context-awarecomputing
Smartpower meters
Biometricsensors
Machinevision
Optogenetics
Depthimaging
Biomarkers
Neuro-informatics
Near-fieldcommunication
Pervasivevideo
capture
Computationalphotography
Speechrecognition
Haptics
4K
Augmentedreality
Gesturerecognition
Multitouch
Immersivevirtual reality
Holography
Telepresence
4G
5G
Cloudcomputing
Interplanetaryinternet
Exocortex
Virtualcurrencies
Cyber-warfare
Meshnetworking
Reputationeconomy
Remotepresence
VR-onlylifeforms
Machine-augmentedcognition
Softwareagents
High-frequencytrading
Natural languageinterpretation
Proceduralstorytelling
Machinetranslation
You can see it as an “interdisciplinary roadmap for the future.”
Machine augmentedcognition
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2030
2040
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2030
2040
ENERGYROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALSARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
SENSORS GEOTECH QUANTITATIVE FORECASTSSPACEINTERFACES UBICOMPINTERNET
World population 8 billionSource: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
BRICs GDP overtakes the G7Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj
Petabyte storage standardSource: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc
Exabyte storage standardSource: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
Terabit internet speed standardSource: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
World population reaches 9 billionSource: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc
Sources:Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok
Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben
Sources:Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5
Global online population: ± 2 billionConnected devices: ±10 billion
Global online population: 4-5 billionConnected devices: 30-50 billion
$150 Hard disk: ±200 TbStandard RAM: ±750Gb
Global online population: ± 2.5 billionConnected devices: ±15 billion
$ 1.000 computer reaches thecapacity of the human brain
(± 1015 calculations per second)
Verticalfarming
Weatherengineering
Sea-steading
Desalination
Carbonsequestration
Climateengineering
Arcologies
Commercialspaceflight
Sub-orbitalspaceflight
Lunaroutpost
Marsmission
Solarsail
Spaceelevator
Spacetourism
Inductivechargers
Thoriumreactor
Travelingwave reactor
Fuel cells
Multi-segmentedsmart grids
Biomechanicalharvesting
Bio-enhancedfuels
Artificialphotosynthesis
Space-basedsolar power
Piezo-electricity
Photvoltaicglass
Nano-generators
Enernet
Tidal turbines
Programmablematter
Personalfabricators
Molecularassembler
Meta-materials
Additivemanufacturing
Graphene
Opticalinvisibility cloaks
Biomaterials
Carbonnanotubes
Self-healingmaterials
Nanowires
Anti-agingdrugs
Stem-cell treatments
In-vitromeat
Nanomedicine
Artificialretinas
Personalgene sequencing
Syntheticbiology
Personalizedmedicine
Gene therapy
Hybridassisted limbs
Smart drugs
Syntheticblood
Organprinting
Smarttoys
Roboticsurgery
Appliancerobots
Self-drivingvehicles
Domesticrobots
Powered exoskeleton
Embodiedavatars
Swarmrobotics
Utilityfog
Unmannedaerial
vehicles
Fabric-embeddedscreens
Reprogrammablechips
Pico-projectors
Volumetric(3D) screens
Flexible screens
Skin-embeddedscreens
Tablets
Boards
Retinalscreens
Eyewear-embeddedscreens
Context-awarecomputing
Smartpower meters
Biometricsensors
Machinevision
Optogenetics
Depthimaging
Biomarkers
Neuro-informatics
Near-fieldcommunication
Pervasivevideo
capture
Computationalphotography
Speechrecognition
Haptics
4K
Augmentedreality
Gesturerecognition
Multitouch
Immersivevirtual reality
Holography
Telepresence
4G
5G
Cloudcomputing
Interplanetaryinternet
Exocortex
Virtualcurrencies
Cyber-warfare
Meshnetworking
Reputationeconomy
Remotepresence
VR-onlylifeforms
Machine-augmentedcognition
Softwareagents
High-frequencytrading
Natural languageinterpretation
Proceduralstorytelling
Machinetranslation
But I think it’s true worth is displayed when you start connecting the dots between the individual technologies and start thinking about the critical paths between them.
GPS
GPS GPS
GPS
One way of seeing intersections between different technologies is from looking backwards in time. Take an existing product or service and flesh out the individual components that were necessary for it to be invented.
What makes YouTube possible? The combination of: ubiquitous cameras, cheap storage, fast processing, a proliferation of internet users and fast internet access.
GPS
GPS
Same thing for a service like 23andMe. It was only possible after the proliferation of fast processing, automatic sequencing machines, optical sensors and a degree of social network analysis.
Scenario #1:Surveillance
Today I’ll go over three brief sci-fi scenarios based on extrapolating existing trends.
A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors: Experiments performed with a team of nano quadrotors at the GRASP Lab, University of Pennsylvania
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQIMGV5vtd4
The rise in drone journalism.
Moscow protests
http://dronejournalism.tumblr.com/post/14136093865/more-on-the-moscow-protest-photos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9vOor1xmVDs
The Xbox Kinect - a brilliant example of depth imaging (or computer vision) popularizing as a toy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QrnwoO1-8A
This is how the Kinect sees the world.
Drone cameras
Swarm robotics
Computer vision
So where do you end up in a future where these three technologies are prominent?
Imagine a future with a swarm of thumbnail-sized flying nanocopters with 3D cameras on them.
“IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
Imagine a cloud of cameras. Unstoppable, able to see everything. Drop it into a hostage situation or use it for spying. The possibilities and risks are endless.
“IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
“IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
And if you doubt the possibility, check the AR.Drone Parrot, a $300 helicopter toy with a camera which is controlled by an iPhone app.
Scenario #2:Urban intelligence
Outboard brain: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/15-10/st_thompson
We are outsourcing as much information as possible from our brains into our portable devices. Phone numbers, addresses, directions, etc.
And we are outsourcing the decision-making process to our devices.Here is a WiFi-enabled umbrella which flashes if it’s going to rain. No need to look up the weather.
We’re moving toward an internet of things, where all infrastructure is interdependent and connected.Sometimes called the “smart city”.
The surge of personal agents.
Coupled with context-aware computers which know where we are.
Smart infrastructure
Personal agents
Contextual computing
“DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
I call this trend “tell me what to do”. A scenario where the computer, or the network, is smart enough to guide you through your day. Tell you which road to take based on traffic patterns, notify you when a friend is nearby, coordinate your calendar, etc.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/
“DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/
Scenario #3:Self-organization
Mobile phones generally work by connecting wirelessly to microcells. It’s a distributed but centralized network.
We are seeing the rise of mesh networks, or mobile ad-hoc networks. Instead of being centralized around antennas, each node becomes a relay. This means mobile phones with this technology can communicate without any existing infrastructure in place.
“In essence, Mobile Hotspots seeks to provide cell-tower-class performance
without the infrastructure.”
And DARPA is already working on this technology.
http://www.darpa.mil/NewsEvents/Releases/2012/02/10.aspx
Likewise, we usually think of energy as a centralized process.
But with the rise of photovoltaic capacity in solar cells, we’re quickly reaching the point where that’s no longer necessary.
Look at the rising lines. Photovoltaic efficiency rises yearly.
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/39544/
$799.99
And finally, smartphones are generally seen as expensive.
$
But the trend is for the price of all electronics to drop quickly over time.
Mesh networking
Photovoltaics
Affordable smartphones
“AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
The takeaway? Imagine a cheap smartphone that works entirely off the grid. Communicates with anyone on the network, and is impossible to censor. Now imagine airdropping those into a country where communications have been shut down by the government.
“AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
Given the right political conditions and level of tension, you could potentially set off a revolution like what we saw around the middle east in 2011.
“AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
Without naming names, I’m sure you can all think of a couple of regions where these airdrops could come in handy.
“AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
“IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
“DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
Again, this is just a handful of scenarios based on less than a dozen actual technologies.
The other characteristic about technology is how it’s always progressing.A century ago, humanity had never even taken flight. Now, we take it for granted. (1903)
Same with medical imaging. (1895)
Connect the dots. See where technologies intersect.