global fx strategy | fx quick notes 120 40 high canada ... · the end-july lapse of the $600/wk...

1

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020

High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (August 4, 2020)

Shaun Osborne

Chief FX Strategist

461.945.4538

[email protected]

Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 31)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20



US Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 31)

Google Community Mobility

• Daily Google data tracking movement trends points to slowing gains in economic activity which in part reflects seasonal patterns (summer

holidays)—see declining workplace activity in Germany—but may also be due to the re-imposition of some lockdown measures in certain regions.

While the end of strict quarantine periods led to an initial, strong, rebound in activity the coming quarters will see growth returning to a smoother

trajectory, with economic output unlikely to reach its pre-coronavirus level before late-2021 given the economic impact and job losses resulting

from the shutdowns and their spillovers. Retail, transit, and workplaces mobility in the US has been flat since mid– to late-June.

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20



UK Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 31)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20



Germany Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 31)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20



Japan Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 31)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20



Mexico Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 31)

Juan Manuel Herrera

FX Strategist

416.866.6781

[email protected]

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada


Google Community Mobility: Workplaces

% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 31) -100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20



Google Community Mobility: Retail


(Last: Jul 31) -80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20



Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns.


(Last: Jul 31)

https://twitter.com/Scotiabankfx

2


0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20


Canada and US:Topic "Unemployment Benefits"

respective peak = 100(Last: Aug 1)

Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Cda "CERB"

7-day ma

Cda"CESB"

7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20


Canada and US:Search Term "New Car"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Rent Relief"


Canada7-day ma US

7-day ma

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Realtor"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Google Search Trends

• Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including searches for the federal

government’s other income support programmes, CERB and CESB. In the US, however, there’s been a recent, slight, uptick in searches—that

remain stubbornly high—which may reflect new rounds of layoffs as cases rebound and certain businesses close again or due to concerns over

the end-July lapse of the $600/wk emergency unemployment benefits top-up. Searches for “Covid test” have also surged in the US—and all the

other countries we track ex. Italy—amid a quick increase in contagions in parts of the country that may also be result in increased spending

caution by households reflected in flat to declining searches for “realtor”. As local eviction moratoriums expire in the US, “rent relief” searches

have surged.

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20


Canada and US:Topic "Bankruptcy"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20

UK FraIta MexUS Cda


Search Term "Covid Test"

respective peak = 100, 7-day ma (Last: Aug 1)

New York Fed Economic Index

• The NY Fed’s weekly economic index which

aggregates ten different daily and weekly

indices points to a year-on-year decline in

GDP of around –7.1% in early-August

equivalent to a 14.3% q/q increase for Q3

following a 32.9% q/q contraction in Q2.

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Source: FRBNY, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US FRBNY WeeklyEconomic Indexy/y % GDP grow th equivalent(Last: Aug 1)

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20Source: FRBSF, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

San Fran Fed US Daily News Sentiment Index

index(Last: Aug 2)

San Fran Fed News Index

• The FRB of San Francisco’s Daily News

Sentiment Index, which tracks the implied

tone of news articles in 16 major US

newspapers, points to an improvement in

sentiment since its trough in late-March,

which may marginally boost consumer

confidence.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

US (2019) US (2020)

Canada (2019) Canada (2020)

Source: Indeed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Indeed New Job Postings

Feb 1 = 100, 7-dma (Last: Jul 24)

Indeed New Job Postings

• Online daily job postings on Indeed remain

depressed relative to 2019 as firms hold

back on hiring plans, with the trend in new

job postings in Canada down by around 15%

whereas in the US they are only down about

5%, compared to 22% and unchanged two

weeks prior, respectively.

3


Scotiabank Canadian Merchant Data

• Scotiabank debit and credit card payments data compiled by our Economics, Customer Insights, and

Data & Analytics teams show that retail transactions across core merchant categories have rebounded

solidly in Canada from their April depths when compared to the same period last year. Total credit and

debit transactions now stand around 10% above their year-ago levels after falling by close to 30% y/y

in April; clothing, automotive, and health expenses are now rising year-on-year while restaurant

expenses have stopped declining. While the lockdown measures, travel bans, and fear of contagion

have sharply hit the travel industry—with transaction volumes down about 50% y/y as of a week ago—

other sectors have seen an increase in sales as people spend more time at home (e.g. computer

software sales). For more details see here. For questions contact Nikita Perevalov

([email protected]).

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Travel

Restaurants

Hardware stores

Automotive

Clothing

Entertainment

Health

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Jul 20)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

Telecom servicesComputer networkComputer softwareGrocer iesDigital goods

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Jul 20)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

Scotia FX Risk Appetite Index

• Our daily risk appetite index—a factor of

financial risk variables such as CDS spreads

and market volatility—is trading above its

200DMA after having declined from that

mark due to contagion concerns as solid

economic data and an agreement on an EU

relief package assuage concerns over rising

cases in the US, the stimulus impasse in

Congress, and building frictions between

China and some G7 members.

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

MfgFinanceProf/Biz svcsEduc/HealthLeisure/HospTotal

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Burning Glass,

Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Job Postings by Industry

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 31)

Affinity Solutions US Card Spending Data

• Affinity Solutions debit and credit card payments data show that retail sales in the US remain

around 6% off their baseline in early-2020 with grocery purchases remaining elevated as

individuals spend more time at home while spending on recreation and transportation remains

quite depressed at ~ 50% lower than baseline, while accommodation and food spending is about

35% lower. Spending on general merch. & apparel has rebounded to only 7% below baseline,

though worsening from nearly unchanged in late-June. The recent stalling in expenses is worrying,

however, and may reflect caution by households as supplementary unemployment benefits lapse

and amid depressed confidence from rising contagions in most US states.

Burning Glass US Jobs Postings

• Weekly Burning Glass data show that US job

postings are down by around 15% y/y after

showing tentative signs of rebounding in the

final week of June albeit still remain above

their late-April/early-May depths, when

compared to their January baseline.

Openings in the leisure and hospitality sector

quickly gave back their gains as reopening

plans are scaled back.

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Scotiabank FX Strategy Risk Appetite Index

index, 2008-present avg. = 0(Last: Aug 4)

100DMA

Risk appetite index

200DMA

40DMA

-50

-25

0

25

01/20 03/20 05/20

TopMiddleBottom QuartileAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020),Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by ZIP Code Median Income Quartile% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 19)

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

01/20 03/20 05/20

AllHealthAcc/FoodGroceriesTrans/WHArts/Ent/RecGenMerch/Apparel

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by Sector

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 19)

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.insights-views.tracking-the-canadian-economy-through-covid-19-insights-from-customer-transactions--july-23--2020-.html

mailto:[email protected]

4


30

40

50

60

70

80

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: RTE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

France Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Aug 3)

latest: 97% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Thousands

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: EIA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Midwest Energy Demand


latest: 100% of avg

Energy Demand

• Hourly energy demand data shows the impact of the economic lockdown on industrial sector

activity as a large share of factories and offices remain idle—although in the case of the latter

some of this demand is substituted by residential demand which is less energy efficient.

• Energy demand in the countries/regions that we track has generally been around 10% lower

than the average of the previous two/three years over the past couple of months, thus

suggesting that the global economy still remains well below its pre-pandemic levels.

Abnormally high temperatures in Ontario have increased air-conditioning usage temporarily

and above seasonal norms; more closely mirroring energy demand in 2018. It is more likely

that the current slump in energy demand observed in France, Germany, Japan, and Mexico

reflects more accurately the magnitude of the economic depression.

22

27

32

37

42

47

52

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: TEPCO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Japan Energy Demand


latest = 85% of avg

10

12

14

16

18

20

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: SMARD, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Energy Demand


latest = 92% of avg.

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: IESO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Ontario Energy Demand


latest: 106% of avg

25

30

35

40

45

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: Cenace, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Mexico Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max

(Last: Aug 3)

latest: 88% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: ONS, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Brazil Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max (Last: Aug 2)

latest: 100% of avg

0

20

40

60

80

100

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20

China GermanyUK JapanMexico New ZealandUS Canada

Source: Hale, Webster, Petherick, Phillips, and Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government , Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Incorporates public information on 17 indicators of government responses.

Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index

100 = strictest response Lockdown Stringency Index

• Oxford University's lockdown stringency index—a useful

guideline to track containment measures around the

globe—shows the progress that New Zealand has made on

bringing the coronavirus under control which has allowed

them to loosen restrictions that therefore leaves the country

better positioned for a prompt economic rebound. Similarly,

Germany’s restrictions remain relatively loose compared to

its peers which will likely result in an outperformance of the

country's economy within the euro-bloc. After a slow

response to the outbreak, the Oxford index suggests that

restrictions in Mexico are among the strictest across major

economies, behind China which recently re-imposed some

measures owing to an outbreak in Beijing.

5


-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

US m. vehicles & eq.US ex mveCanada m. vehicles & eq.Canada ex mve

Source: CN, AAR, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US Rail Merchandise Shipments

y/y % change in carloads(Last: Jul 24)

Rail Shipments

• Weekly rail shipments data shows that

demand for motor vehicles and equipment in

North America is again below year-ago levels

after a surge from a low base two weeks ago

while shipments of other goods remain

depressed and have stalled around 10-20%

below last year’s levels.

US Steel Production

• Weekly US steel production data suggests

that activity in the manufacturing and

construction sectors has not yet significantly

improved for steel mills to notably ramp up

production, which stands at about 70% of

year-ago output compared to 60% in early

May.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

• Chinese industrial output appears to have

recovered quickly, but then stalled, as steel

inventory levels in the country are depleted

from record-highs as reflected by weekly

Shanghai storage data for both traders and

steel mills. Steel mill inventories are nearly at

‘normal’ levels but show no signs of declining

of late.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Source: Antaike, Mysteel, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

mn tonnes(Last: Jul 31)

2020traders

(LHS)

2019traders

(LHS)

mn tonnes(Last: Jul 31)

2020steel mills

(RHS)

2019steel mills

(RHS)1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Source: AISI, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Steel Production

mn short tonnes(Last: Jul 31)

2020

2019

Germany Truck Mileage Index

• Daily truck mileage data for Germany—a

close indicator of industrial production—

shows a sharp rebound in economic activity

in Europe’s largest economy. As of July 27,

miles traveled by trucks in Germany were

slightly above their year-ago level. This

series and other data again point to the

German economy recovering at a fast pace

as lockdown measures are lifted.

Retail Traffic

• ShopperTrak and Prodco retail foot traffic

data show that retail activity has picked up

quickly in France and Germany to leapfrog

the decline in Hong Kong—which reverted

shutdowns recently owing to rising

contagions. Retail sales in the UK remain

nevertheless depressed after a rebound in

the series with retailers in England allowed to

reopen on June 15th. Foot traffic in the US is

still about 50% below baseline for six straight

weeks as contagion concerns curb shopping

attitudes.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

UK

France

Germany

Hong Kong

US

Source: Shopper Trak, Prodco Analytics,Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Retail Foot Traffic

y/y % change(Last: w eek of Jul 20)

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20

Source: Destatis, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Truck Mileage Index

y/y % change(Last: Jul 27)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20

Source: Bundesbank, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index

q/q % implied change in real GDP(Last: Aug 2)

Bundesbank Activity Index

• The Bundesbank’s high-frequency economic

activity index estimates that the German

economy had practically stopped contracting

on a 3m/3m basis, as of August 2nd, up from

–6.9% six weeks ago, reflecting the increase

in activity in the country’s industrial and

services sectors. Note that Germany’s

economy contracted by 10.1% in Q2,

compared to the Bundesbank WEI estimate

of 4.6% at end-June.

6


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Source: Flight Radar, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Flight Radar TrackedCommercial Flights Globally

000s per day(Last: Aug 3)

7DMA(Latest = 58% of Jan 31)

TSA Checkpoint Throughput

• Daily US TSA shows that traffic through US

airports remains heavily subdued at close to

a quarter when compared to 2019. The

recent rise in cases in the country may

explain the plateauing of US travel since

early-June. As domestic and international

restrictions are lifted we should see a more

important pick-up in travel activity.

Flight Radar Commercial Flights

• Daily flights data from Flight Radar points to

an unsurprising massive decline in air travel

(about 42% lower compared to early-2020)

owing to travel bans and other strict

restrictions on domestic and international

travel. As some countries eradicate (or

sharply limit the spread of the virus) some

travel will resume between ‘COVID-free’

nations.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

Source: TSA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

TSA Checkpoint Travelers

000s passengers(Last: Aug 3)

2020 7-dma(Latest = 27% of 2019)

2019 7-dma

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

GermanyMexicoUKAustraliaCanadaUS

Source: Opentable, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

y/y% change(Last: Aug 2)

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

• Daily OpenTable restaurant foot traffic data

points to a solid rebound in restaurant visits

in Germany and continued gains in Canada

and the UK. An increase in cases in Australia

has led to the re-imposition of lockdown

measures in Victoria and a temporary sharp

decline in restaurant visits, which have also

remained practically unchanged in the US as

quarantine measures are rolled back.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline

Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Apple Mobility Trends

routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Aug 2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


US Apple Mobility Trends


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


Germany Apple Mobility Trends


Apple Mobility Trends

• Daily Apple data tracking Apple Maps routing requests shows that driving and walking mobility in Canada, the US, and Germany now exceeds

their respective baseline levels of mid-January. However, only in Germany has there been a significant increase in transit usage that points to a

faster return to economic normality than in North America as lockdown measures are lifted; see Oxford U’s lockdown stringency index that shows

Germany’s restrictions are now significantly more relaxed than in most of its peers.

7


Dallas Fed State Mobility and Engagement Index, 7-day ma (Last: July 25)

Source: Dallas Fed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 9, Jan-Feb avg. = 0 (difference from baseline).

WA (-35)

OR (-32)

CA (-49)

ID (-25)

NV (-38)

UT (-30)

AZ (-45)

MT (-25)

WY (-19)

CO (-32)

NM (-35)

ND (-33)

SD (-28)

NE (-40)

KS (-40)

OK (-35)

TX (-58)

MN (-48)

IA (-39)

MO (-37)

AR (-39)

LA (-40)

WI (-41)

IL (-48)

KY (-36)

TN (-36)

MS (-40)

MI (-32)

IN (-33)

OH (-35)

WV (-24)

NC (-34)

AL (-40)

PA (-37)

VA (-44)

SC (-33)

GA (-39)

NY (-52)

NJ (-60)

MD (-53)

DC (-48)

FL (-47)

VT (-39)

MA (-52)

CT (-54)

DE (-44)

ME (-31)

NH (-45)

RI (-48)

HI (-48)

AK (-24)

ALL (-43)

8


New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by US State and Canadian Province, 7-day ma (Last: Aug 1)

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is March 3.

WA

OR

CA

HI

ID

NV

UT

AZ

MT

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

AR

LA

KY

TN

MS

OH PA

VA

SC

GA

MD

NJ

NY MA

VT

CT

DE

NH

ME

RIWY

WV

NC

AL

DC

MI

IN

IL

WI

FL

BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS

NLPE

AK

9


Opportunity Insights Affinity Solutions Card Spending, 7-day ma (Last: July 19)

Source: Opportunity Insights, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 24, Jan = 0 (% difference from baseline).

WA (-5.1)

OR (-6.7)

CA (-13.2)

ID (1.0)

NV (-8.4)

UT (-5.9)

AZ (-8.4)

MT (-7.1)

WY (-4.4)

CO (-8.0)

NM (-9.2)

ND (-3.4)

SD (-13.7)

NE (-5.8)

KS (-6.9)

OK (-5.1)

TX (-7.0)

MN (-5.8)

IA (-13.8)

MO (-3.3)

AR (3.5)

LA (-0.6)

WI (-6.1)

IL (-7.1)

KY (0.4)

TN (-0.9)

MS (-4.3)

MI (2.6)

IN (-3.5)

OH (-2.7)

WV (0.5)

NC (-7.4)

AL (0.0)

PA (-3.7)

VA (-5.8)

SC (-2.2)

GA (-4.3)

NY (-5.8)

NJ (-4.5)

MD (-8.1)

DC (-19.0)

FL (-5.2)

VT (-7.1)

MA (-2.0)

CT (-5.8)

DE (-8.7)

ME (0.2)

NH (-1.3)

RI (-10.2)

HI (5.0)

AK (-7.6)

ALL (-6.3)

10


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This report is prepared by Scotiabank as a resource for clients of Scotiabank for information and discussion purposes only. This report should be considered a marketing

communication and has not been prepared by a member of the research department of Scotiabank, it is solely for the use of sophisticated institutional investors, and this

report does not constitute investment advice or any personal recommendation to invest in a financial instrument or “investment research” as defined by the UK Prudential

Regulation Authority or UK Financial Conduct Authority. This document has not been prepared in accordance with EU legal requirements designed to promote the independ-

ence of investment research and the information contained in this publication is not subject to any prohibition in the EU on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment

research. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions

contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from publically available sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to

their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Scotiabank or any of its employees incur any re-

sponsibility. Neither Scotiabank nor its representatives accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not, and is

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