global health and sustainable food security: why the livestock sectors of developing countries...
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Slide presentation: Global health and sustainable food security: Why the livestock sectors of developing countries matter By Jimmy Smith For the Global Animal Health Conference: Developing global animal health products to support food security and sustainability 17-18 October 2013 Arlington, VirginiaTRANSCRIPT
Global health and sustainable food securityWhy the livestock sectors of developing countries matter
Global Animal Health ConferenceDeveloping global animal health products to support food security and sustainability
17−18 October 2013, Arlington, Virginia
Jimmy Smith, Director General, ILRI
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed in the following slides are those of the individual presenter and should not be attributed to Drug Information Association, Inc. (‘DIA’), its directors, officers, employees, volunteers, members, chapters, councils, Special Interest Area Communities or affiliates, or any organization with which the presenter is employed or affiliated.
These slides are the intellectual property of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). They are licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported Licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
Key messages
1GLOBALFOOD SECURITYSmallholder livestock systems contribute now and in the future
2 GLOBALLIVESTOCK MARKETS
Demand for livestock in developing countriesis rising fast
3GLOBALANIMAL HEALTHGlobal food securitydepends onbetter animal health
4GLOBALANIMAL HEALTH MARKETSAnimal health marketsare big marketsin developing countries
GlobalFood Security
Food security and sustainability
How will the world feed itself sustainablyby the time the population stabilizes about 2050?
• 60% more food than is produced now will be needed
• 75% of this must come from productivity − not land − increases
• The higher production must be achieved while reducing poverty and addressing environmental, social and health concerns
• This greater production will have to be achieved in theface of temperatures 2−4 degrees warmer than today’s
Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
Malnutrition is costly.FAO estimates the costs of malnutrition
to be as high as US$3.5 trillion a year
Gains in meat consumption in developing countries outpace that of developed countries
1980 1990 2002 2015 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
developingdeveloped
Mill
ion
met
ric t
onne
s
FAO 2006
Global food production: From where?
Herrero et al. 2009
Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supplythe large proportionof livestock products
Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive
East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers• Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers
have same levels of efficiency and profits
Vietnam pig industry• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs
than those with more than 4 sows• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
GlobalLivestockMarkets
4 out of 5 of the highest valueglobal commodities are livestock
FAOSTAT 2013
Percentage increase in demandfor livestock products
Developing Countries Developed Countries0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MeatMilkEggs
2000 to 2040
IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results
Far higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries
Global trade of livestock products(million tonnes, milk excluded)
pig meat beef eggs poultry meat
sheep and goat meat
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
19672007
Adapted from FAO 2012
Global trade of livestock products(million tonnes, milk included)
pig meat beef eggs milk poultry meat
sheep and goat
meat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19672007
Adapted from FAO 2012
GlobalAnimal Health
Smallholders can commercialize
Smallholders can continue to most provide livestock products in most developing countries only ifthe following animal health problems are addressed:
• Poor market access− Reduce food safety problems that reduce
market participation by smallholders
• Low productivity − Reduce endemic animal diseases that lower productivity
• Zoonotic diseases − Lower zoonotic disease transmissions that threaten
small-scale livestock producers in poor countriesas well as human health in all countries
Food safety in developing countries
• Most milk, meat and eggsare sold in informal markets
• We need to manage the risks (of illness) while retaining the benefits (to livelihoods, food/nutrition security) of informally sold livestock foods
• Perceptions can be misleading:e.g., handling cattle or drinking milk is as risky as eating vegetables
Country Percent
Kenya 86
Tanzania 95
Uganda 90
Rwanda 90
Ethiopia 95
Malawi 95
Zambia 90
Percent of milk marketedin informal markets
Food safety in developing countries
• Gender issues are important issues in food safety
• Health advice is most useful when it is context-specific,based on evidence, and developed in and with local communities
• Social incentives(‘good parents do x . . .’)and risk- rather thanrule-based approacheswork best
• Relatively simple and cheapinterventions can lead tosubstantial improvementsin food safety
Innovations, incentives and institutionsfor managing food-borne diseases
• Develop and test technologies• Train, brand and certify informal actors• Development local capacity
Novel lateral flow assays for cysticercosis Women butchers sell safer meat than men
Steinfeld et al. 2006
Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal health, persist between rich and poor countries
Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
Annual losses from selected diseases –Africa and South Asia
Estimates from BMGF
Endoparasit
esPPR
CBPP
Ectopara
sites
CCPPFM
DTry
ps
Shoat pox
Newcastl
e
Bruce
llosis
Bovine TBLS
DRVF
ECFBVD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
South AsiaAfrica
Billi
on $
lost
yea
rly
AfricaSouth Asia
• Animal disease is a key constraint:Remove it and animal productivity increases greatly
• As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase
Young Adult
Cattle 22% 6%
Shoat 28% 11%
Poultry 70% 30%
Otte & Chilonda, IAEA
Annual mortality of African livestock(About half due to preventable or curable diseases)
Animal disease is a key constraint in Africa
Almost all losses are in developing countries
A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each yearkill 2.2 million people and sicken 2.4 billion
Lept
ospi
rosis
TB (zoo
)
Rabie
s
Cystic
erco
sis
Leish
man
iasis
Bruce
llosis
Echin
ococ
cosis
Toxop
lasm
osis
Q feve
r
Sleep
ing
sickn
ess
Anthr
ax0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Annual deaths from all zoonoses Annual deaths from single-agent zoonoses
Greatest burden of zoonoses falls onone billion poor livestock keepers
Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
Emerging zoonotic disease events, 1940−2012
Map by IOZ, published in an ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
PeriodCost
(conservative estimates) 6 outbreaks excluding SARS − Nipah virus (Malaysia) − West Nile fever (USA) − HPAI (Asia, Europe) − BSE (US) − Rift Valley fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) − BSE (UK) costs 1997−09 only
1998−2009 38.7
SARS 2002−2004 41.5
Total over 12 years 1998−2009 80.2
Costs of emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks(US$ billion)
World Bank 2012
Giving an annual average of US$6.7 billion
1998
2007
African swine fever threatensUS$150-billion global pig industry
Global Animal Health Markets
• Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry
• Global human health market = $1,000 billion
• Global animal health market(livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion
• Global livestock health market = $13 billion
• Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion
• Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15%
• Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth (2nd after Latin America)
Animal health markets in developing countries: Significant and growing
Animal health markets:Where is the demand?
15 countries make up more than 85%of the global animal health market:
• Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK
• Asia: Japan, China, India, Korea
• Americas: Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico
• Oceania: Australia
Developing and emerging countriesare increasingly important
Animal health markets:India
• 500 million livestock,1 billion poultry
• Livestock sector is 2nd-largest contributor to GDP (6%)
• World’s biggestdairy producer
• Animal health marketannual growth over 8%
• Worth $370 million in 2008:52% cattle, 38% poultry
Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries
• Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages)
• Delivery systems for small farms
• Surveillance for drug resistance
• ‘One Health’ approaches and ‘Rational Drug Use’ for both people and animals
• ‘Game-changing products’:e.g., vaccines for Newcastledisease and East Coast fever
• Quality assurance forveterinary medicines
Key messages
1GLOBALFOOD SECURITYSmallholder livestock systems contribute now and in the future
2 GLOBALLIVESTOCK MARKETS
Demand for livestock in developing countriesis rising fast
3GLOBALANIMAL HEALTHGlobal food securitydepends onbetter animal health
4GLOBALANIMAL HEALTH MARKETSAnimal health marketsare big marketsin developing countries
Last words
The risks of ignoring pressing animal healthissues in the developing world are huge:− Lost livelihoods and food in developing countries− Reduced global food security− Impaired human health in all countries
The opportunities for improving animal healthin developing countries are just as big:− A significant and rapidly growing market
achieved with appropriate approaches
Thank you
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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