COP15, IUCN Side Event, Copenhagen, 2009

Dr. Camille ParmesanProfessor, Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, USA

Global impacts of Climate Changeand Potentials for Adaptation and

Mitigation through EcosystemRestoration

Parmesan & Yohe, Nature 2003

Observed Changes in Wild Plants and Animals >1,700 Species Globally

52% changingwhere they live

CHANGED AS PREDICTEDSTABLE

OPPOSITE OF PREDICTION

Evidence for local, population-level evolution(Micro-evolution) - several !

No evidence for species-level evolution(Macro-evolution):

• No evidence for new “super-hot-adapted” mutations

• No evidence for any species living in new climate space

• No response to artificial selection to tolerate more extreme climatic conditions than found in wild

(fruit flies, butterflies) (Hoffmann et al 2003, Crozier 2003 a,b; Jordano et al 2000)

Ecological Responses Dominate -Evolution has not Affected Species’

Fundamental Climate NichesParmesan AREES 2006

Declines and Range Contractions of SeaIce-Species in Arctic and Antarctic

2007NOAA

ArcticRinged

Seal

Adelie &Emperorpenguins

Antarctic

2002-2007NOAA

Ice-dependentpenguins decliningby 70 - 95%

Ice-dependentpenguins increasing orsmaller declines (<20%)

Smith et al. Bioscience 1999; Fraser et al. Polar Biol. 1992; Emslie et al. Ant. Science 1998

goldentoad Costa Rica

ApolloEurope& Nepal

whitelemuroidpossumAustralia

pika, USA& Nepal

Mountaintop Species

• Many species have contractedupward

• First extinctions

Parmesan AREES 2006

E.e. quino - The only existing populations with historic densities are newly discovered sites further east and at higher elevations than historically-recorded distribution

(> 4500 ft, yellow circles)

Climate Change Drove a Shift in LandsDeserving Highest Conservation Priority

Parmesan Nature 1996,USFWS 2009

Hoegh-guldberg et al. Science 2008

Solutions:

• Assisted Colonization

• Restoration to create habitat corridors

• Creation of new habitats adapted to future climate

Impediments: Conservation laws & tools focus on return to historic state

Problem: Species’ Forced Out of Traditional Homelands & Protected Areas

Restoration of Vernal Pool habitats in southernCalifornia

USFWS, Recon Environmental Inc.

Photoscourtesy

MarkDodero,Project

Manager &Sr

Biologist

•Landscape topography molded (shallow depressioncreated

• Appropriate soils brought in (build clay lens)

• Water storage, filtration & flow altered

YEAR 3

• Self-sustaining

• Occasionalweeding neededto keep outexotics

• Habitat for 5endangered vernalpool species

• Cost: $ 1m/acre

10 ft

Native bunchgrasses Deep Root system

C-storage (by 52%)

Water storage

Resistance to drought

and heat waves

Nutritional value

Adapted to grazing

Only carbon-neutral crop

Restoration of Native American Prairie- Help biodiversity adapt- Help mitigate climate change

NativeLittle bluestemFranzluebbers 2005, Fargione et al. 2008, Poteet unpubl,

Indonesia Brazil USA

Full Carbon Budget Shows Prairie Carbon-NeutralConversion of Lands to Biofuel Production

Emission of carbonfrom soil

Loss of carbonabove ground

Fargione et al. 2008 Science