global investor call

25
Diffusable GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL 9-10 th March, 2021

Upload: others

Post on 25-Dec-2021

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL9-10th March, 2021

Page 2: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC AND FINANCIAL ROADMAPLAURENT TREVISANIDeputy CEO, Chief Strategy and Finance Officer

Page 3: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

IN AN UNPRECEDENTED CRISIS, SNCF GROUP SHOWED STRONG RESILIENCE DUE TO BUSINESS AND GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION

Page 4: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

AN UNPRECEDENTED CRISIS …

PASSENGER BUSINESS STRONGLY IMPACTED BY COVID-19

SNCF VOYAGEURS

TGV (High speed trains)

– Hit a low during first lockdown with ridership down 90% in April /May

– Rebounded in summer as 80% of passengers returned

– Second lockdown reduced traffic supply to 1/3 of capacity in November

– 2020 activity more strongly impacted for business activity (-63%) than for leisure (-42%)

TER (Regional passenger transport)

– Mass transit businesses showed more resilience because of loss sharing agreements between SNCF and French local authorities

– Traffic decreased by 40 to 50% but revenue are down only 5% in 2020

KEOLIS

– Traffic resilient but diversely impacted depending on geography

– Revenue / EBITDA loss more limited on regulated activities than on open access

TGV*(Sales in €BN)

2019 20202019 2020

(Sales in €BN)

9.0

3.7

TN*, TER* & IC*(Sales in €BN)

2019 2020

KEOLIS

2019 2020

(Sales in €BN)

6.6 6.1

16.8

12.1

SNCF Voyageurs

-28%

-8%

-54% -5%

8.0 8.6

*TN: Commuter transport in the Paris region

*TER: Regional passenger transport

*IC: Medium and long-distance train in France

4 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

& TRANSILIEN (Commuter transport in Paris)

*TGV: High-speed transport in France & Europe

Page 5: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

AN UNPRECEDENTED CRISIS …

INFRASTRUCTURE AND LOGISTICS OPERATIONS STAY STRONG

LOGISTICS

GEODIS

– Excellent resilience with revenue increasing vs. 2019 (+4.5%) because of Freight forwarding (+12%) and contract logistics activities (+9%) offsetting losses on Distribution & Express and Road Transport activities in France

RAIL LOGISTICS EUROPE– Fret down only 12% in 2020 because of first lockdown

– Stronger resilience in H2 with business keeping pace with the economy and easing of sanitary restrictions

SNCF RESEAU – SNCF G&C

– Operations hit by falling track access charges payments from transport operators

– SNCF G&C: €71 M loss on retail fees reflecting the impact of the two lockdowns and the slow resumption since

2019 2020

(Sales in €BN)

2019 2020

(Sales in €BN)

6.5

5.9

8.28.4

GEODIS

+4.5%

-9%

2019 2020

(Sales in €BN)

1.71.5

RAIL LOGISTICS EUROPE

-12%

SNCF RÉSEAU

2019 2020

(Sales in €BN)

1.5 1.5

-4%

G&C

5 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Page 6: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

– Down -14% from 2019– Impact of January strikes: -€0.4 BN

On revenue

-€6.8 BN

EBITDA

REVENUE

ACTION PLAN: IMPACT ON FREE CASH FLOW

FREE CASH FLOW

NET CAPEX

NET INDEBTEDNESS

DECEMBER 2020 IMPACT OF COVID

On EBITDA

-€5.4 BN

KEY FIGURES AT DECEMBER 31 AND IMPACT OF COVID-19

AN UNPRECEDENTED CRISIS …

€30.0 BN

€2.0 BN

€2.5 BN

-€2.8 BN

€3.7 BN

€38.1 BN

– 6.6% of revenue (vs 15.9% in 2019)– Impact of January strikes: -€0.3 BN

– Shared between OPEX (€1.1 BN), CAPEX (€0.6 BN) and cash actions (€0.8 BN)

– Versus -€2.350 BN in 2019

– Decrease of -€1.6 BN vs. 2019 with 2/3 of the impact on SNCF Voyageurs

– €25BN transferred to French State (debt-relief of SNCF Debt)– Impact of negative free cash flow: -€2.8 BN

6 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Page 7: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

AN AMBITIOUS STRATEGYSUPPORTED BY FRENCH RECOVERY PLAN & SNCF STRONG REMEDIAL ACTIONS

Page 8: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

2020 CRISIS MITIGATION PLAN ROLLED OUT IN APRIL IN RESPONSE TO COVID-19

FREE CASH FLOW

AN AMBITIOUS STRATEGY…

€2.5 BN

ACTION

PLAN

8 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

€0.4 BN

€0.7 BN

€0.6 BN

€0.8 BN

Overheadexpenses

Industrial expenses

CAPEX

Cash actions

– Adjustments to investments and postponement of non-essential projects

– Decrease in IS CAPEX

– Postponement of costs: 2020 CVAE, social charges– Activation of cash flow levers including securitization of receivables– Optimizing working capital requirement

– Decrease in SG&A costs– Performance in purchasing and expenses

– Optimizing business processes, productivity, digitalization

– Lower energy & maintenance expenses– Short-time working

Page 9: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

A HISTORIC STATE SUPPORT PACKAGE FOR THE RAIL INDUSTRY

Exceptional dividend

Transport Organizing Authorities

€4.7 BN

BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT PACKAGE SUPPORT PACKAGE OBJECTIVES

BUDGET CREDITS CAPITAL INCREASE

- €250 M to upgrade the railway network

- €300 M for small regional lines

- €250 M to reintroduce service on two overnight train lines

- Of which 3.8 BN to secure planned investment programmes at SNCF Réseau

- €250 M allocated to 14 small regional lines

SNCF PLAYS A STRATEGIC ROLE IN FRANCE’S GREEN RECOVERY

RAIL’S NETWORK AS A PRIORITY REBOOT RAIL FREIGHT

FIGHT REGIONAL INEQUALITY FINANCE ON A SOUND FOOTING

- Upgrade the busiest segments

- Improve quality on core network

- Boost employment in the construction industry

- Reduce the transport emissions

- Boost employment by renewed investment in network segments used for freight

- Upgrade small local lines

- Give France’s least populated regions more appeal

- Get debt under control without slowing the pace of development

- Aim for a sound financial structure and strong sustainable solvency

AN AMBITIOUS STRATEGY…

€0.6 BN €4.05 BN

9 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Budget earmarked2021-2028

Capital increase

Page 10: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

SNCF 2030 - A WORLD LEADER OF SUSTAINABLE MOBILITYFOR PASSENGERS AND FREIGHT

GEODISA resilient player that rounds out other SNCF business lines

Proved its strategic value during the worst of the Covid-19 crisis

FRETRail freight, grounded on a stable and profitable business model

Network upgrades: vital to successful operation of the rail system

SNCF Voyageurs transport operators:Voyages, TER, Transilien

KEOLIS: a powerful presence on French markets already open to competition (concession of public service)

SNCF Gares & Connexions

Industrial operations:Rolling stock and other services

SNCF Voyageurs transport operators in Europe: Eurostar, Thalys, Spain and more

KEOLIS: a global leader in mass transit

SYSTRA, AREP and more

Establishing a strong position across all business lines

10 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

AN AMBITIOUS STRATEGY…

RAIL AND MASS TRANSIT IN FRANCE

RAIL AND MASS TRANSIT AROUND THE WORLD

LOGISTICS AND FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION

Page 11: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

B2CPassengers

B2BShippers, carriers, etc.

B2G2CCountries, regions, urban communitiesand more

MANAGEMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND ASSETS OPERATIONS

€4.4 BNSNCF RÉSEAU

€1.5 BNGARES&

CONNEXIONS

€2.1 BNSNCF RÉSEAU

€3.2 BNTRANSILIEN

€5.0 BNTER

€6.6 BNKEOLIS

€8.2 BNGEODIS

€8.8 BNVOYAGE + SUBSIDIARIES

2019 revenues on a stand-alone basis (not as a contribution to the group total)

11 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

€1.9 BNDIRECTION

INDUSTRIELLE

AN AMBITIOUS STRATEGY…

SNCF 2030 - DIVERSIFYING TO PROMOTE RESILIENCE

Page 12: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

60,000employees outside France

33%of revenue outside France

120countries

No.1 Worldwidein automatic metros andlight rail/trams

No.8 Worldwidein logistics

93% 7%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

€40 M

73%27%

NORTH AFRICA

€35 M 60%

MIDDLE EAST

€82 M75%

13%

40% SOUTH ASIA

€88 M

CENTRAL ASIA

95%

5%

404 M€

95% 5%

12% SOUTHEAST ASIA

€176 M

AUSTRALIA / OCEANIA

33%

66%1%

€904 M

99.7%0.3%

CENTRAL/EASTERN EUROPE

€237 M

61%1%

NORTHERN EUROPE

38%

€1,011 M

70%1%

1%

NORTH AMERICA

99.7% 0.3%

CENTRAL AMERICA

€237 M

28%

€2,565 M

24%58%

€2,996 M

WESTERN EUROPE

3%

SOUTH AMERICA

97%

€174 M

5%

37%

UNITED KINGDOM

1%

57%

3 112 M€

18%

BUSINESSES IN2019

• Freight/goods logistics

• Masstransit• Long-distance passenger transport• Engineering consultancy (incl. Systra,consolidated on the equity method)

Revenue recorded by SNCF Group companies (controlling interest or not)

12 SNCFGROUP PRESENTATION

AN AMBITIOUS STRATEGY…

SNCF 2030 - DIVERSIFYING TO PROMOTE RESILIENCE

Page 13: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

OUR 4 GUIDING PRINCIPLES TO RESTORE OUR FINANCIAL STRENGTH

- SNCF is already diversified.

- We must continue to diversify: logistics and other non-core business lines act as financial shock absorbers, cushioning the impact of economic cycles

- Growing our international markets is not an end in itself. It’s a decision to be made line by line, contract by contract, as opportunities present themselves

- We may opt to do business in high-growth markets and pull out of markets with low margins or fierce competition

- SNCF Group cannot take on debt to fund growth in areas outside our core rail business

- Occasionally, we will develop partnerships with third parties that could provide funding

RISK DIVERSIFICATION PRAGMATIC GROWTH IN EUROPE1 PROFITABILITY ACROSS

ALL BUSINESS LINESSELF-FINANCING FOR NON-CORE INVESTMENTS

- This is consistent with SNCF’s corporate mission and essential to its success

- This principle calls for continuous improvement in our operational and financial performance and continued across-the-board productivity efforts

- Our choices should enable us to:- Maintain a sustainable

financial structure- Optimize dividends to secure

investments in the rail system- Fund profitable investments

and keep the Group on track

2 3 4

AN AMBITIOUS STRATEGY…

13 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Page 14: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

GUILLAUME HINTZYHead of Finance and Treasury Division, SNCF Group

DESPITE THE CRISIS WE REMAIN COMMITTED TO FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY

Page 15: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

CONSISTENT FINANCIAL COMMITMENTS SUPPORTING STRONG RATINGS AND PROACTIVE FINANCING STRATEGY

Page 16: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

FINANCIAL COMMITMENTS CONFIRMED

CONSISTENT FINANCIAL COMMITMENTS…

Defend SNCF Group rating by ensuring that ratios are consistent with SA status– CFL > 0 from 2022– FFO / net debt ≥ 10.0% from2022– Net debt / EBITDA ≤ 6.0x from2023

Decrease structural subordinationof debt held by SNCF SA

Keep liquidity high enough (cash position + RCF) to ensure—at all times—a ratio over 1.2x (sources/uses)

Ensure prudent hedging for all financial risk (forex, interest rates, inflation,etc.)

421 3

16 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Page 17: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

LIQUIDITY & RATINGS PRESERVED THROUGHOUT THE YEAR

CONSISTENT FINANCIAL COMMITMENTS…

Since introducing its EMTN programme in March 2020, SNCF SA has launched 16 bond issues representing a total of €6.8bn

Comfortable liquidity at year end (figures at 31/12/2020):

The group also has two short-term financing programmes (€3 BN & €5 BN ,25% used).

10 yrs, €1,250M

20 yrs, €1,000M

30 yrs, €2,000M

3 yrs, $1,250M

10 yrs, CHF 250 M

Various private placements including one 100-year issue

At group level

Liquidity ratio:

BN

BN

1.5X Sources / Uses

$

CHF

PP

100% available

€6.3

€3.5

Cash & cash equivalents

Bank credit line (RCF)

A LIQUIDITY LEVEL REMAINING STRONG RATINGS PRESERVED

“The affirmation of SNCF’s ratings reflects our assessment that the reduction in revenues andEBITDA, stemming from reduced passenger numbers due to the coronavirus, has been to some extent offset by the support package of EUR4.7billion from the French government”

“The amount andmechanismof the support reinforce ourview of an extremely high likelihood of extraordinary government support, and helps the group pursue the deleveraging targets set by the rail reform implemented on Jan. 1,2020”

23/10/202021/10/2020

AA-/A-1+Negative

Aa3/P-1Stable

A+/F1+Negative

17 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Last

update

21 OCT 2020

20 OCT 2020

04 DEC 2020

Page 18: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

OUR SUSTAINABLEFINANCING STRATEGY FOR TOMORROW

Page 19: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

RAIL IS COMPETITIVE FOR ITS CARBON FOOTPRINT—BUT THAT’S NOT ALL

RAIL’S SHARE OF TOTAL PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION

RAIL’S SHARE OF THE SECTOR’S CO2 EMISSIONS

RAIL’S SHARE OF THE

SECTOR’S PARTICLE

EMISSIONS

10%0.6%2.5%1.6% RAIL’S SHARE OF THE

SECTOR’S NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS

23XMORE EFFICIENT THAN PLANES

31XMORE EFFICIENT THAN PRIVATE CARS

6XMORE EFFICIENT THAN BUSES

OUTSTANDING CARBON FOOTPRINT …

Trains account for 10% of passenger transport but only 0.6% ofthe sector’s emissions, making rail a powerful asset for theecological transition

… AND MANY OTHER ADVANTAGES:

2.5%of the passenger transport sector’s particle emissions, which cause 48,000 premature deaths a year

only1.6%of sector emissions of nitrogen oxide, compared with 80% for cars

along with air travel,rail is the safest mode of transport—27 times safer than cars.

6 millionpeopleare exposed to noise from rail networks, compared to 52millionforcars

And the rail system has a very small footprint (87,000 ha for rail vs 1.2m ha for cars)

nitrogen oxide

particlematter

19 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

safety

noise

OUR SUSTAINABLE FINANCING STRATEGY FOR TOMORROW

Page 20: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

OUR KEY PROJECTS TO PROMOTE GREENER TRANSPORT SOLUTIONS

OUR SUSTAINABLE FINANCING STRATEGY FOR TOMORROW

TGVTER

HYRBRID TRAINS WITH BIOFUEL

BATTERY-POWERED TRAIN

HYDROGEN TER

TGV M

(high-speed train)

- Replace half of diesel engines with batteries- Aim: cut energy costs by 20% and maintenance costs by 30%

- Project cost: €16.85 M per trainset- Q4 2022: prototype enters commercial service

- Replace all diesel engines with batteries- Aim: acquire 100% battery-powered, dual-mode capacity trainsets- Project cost: €7.7 M per trainset- MID 2023: commercial service begins

- Replace all diesel engines with hydrogen fuel cells- Aim: acquire 100% battery-powered, dual-mode capacity trainsets- Project cost: €18.6 M per trainset- MID 2025: commercial service begins

Cutting-edge technology to serve passengers and advance the ecological transition

100% French, next generation high-speed train

M for:- Modularity- Energy management- Predictive management

Aim: 20% more passengers per trainset, 30% reduction in maintenance costs, 97% recyclable materials eliminating 32% of CO2 emissions

Project cost: €3 BN for 100 TGV M trainsets ordered

First trainsets are set to run for the 2024 Olympic games

20 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Page 21: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

SNCF GROUP AND GREEN FINANCE

OUR SUSTAINABLE FINANCING STRATEGY FOR TOMORROW

2029

2030

2031

2034

2047

850

1 000

900

1 500

1 350

100

50

1 250

TIMELINE (€ MILLION)

2036

2119

2120

TheGreen BondPrinciples

High scores from non-financial rating agencies

Leading green bond issuer

Our sustainability-linked RCF

- VIGEO EIRIS rates SNCF 74/100 (# 1 out of 22) and ECOVADIS rates SNCF 79/100

- Outstanding bonds total €7.2 BN, or 28% of financing raised by SNCF Group from 2016-2020

- #3 in France and #5 in Europe and worldwide (excluding sovereign, supra and bank bonds)

- World’s first rail infrastructure manager to issue green bonds - World’s first 100-year green bonds in any currency or issuer

class

- €3.5 BN revolving credit facility from 20 banks - 3 criteria: carbon footprint, renewable energies, responsible

procurement

We’re expanding the scope of our green financial products

21 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Page 22: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

CARBON IMPACT

9,700PEOPLE

Equal to the carbon footprint of 9,700 people in France over 40 years.

CO24.7

22 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

1BILLIONEUROS

Invested in Green Bonds dedicated to infrastructure upgrades.

MILLION TONS

of CO emissionsavoided2

over 40 years

CARBON IMPACT 2016 2017 2018 2019

Network upgrades € M 710 1 508 - 3 181

CARBON IMPACT TCO2e M 2.7 5.7 - 17.1

Network expansion € M176 226 - -

CARBON IMPACT TCO2e M 0.2 0.2 - -

TOTAL IMPACT TCO2e M 2.9 5.9 - 17.1

A total of 25.9 million tons of CO2 eq. saved thanks to SNCF Group Green Bonds (equal to the carbon footprint of 53,500 French people).

and reused

OTHER IMPACTS 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rails recycled % 96.5 100 - 100

Ballast reused % 30-50 30-50 - 30-50

Wood reused as T 78,300 67,800 - 65,000energy source

OUR SUSTAINABLE FINANCING STRATEGY FOR TOMORROW

IMPACT OF GREEN BOND ISSUES FROM 2016 TO 2019

Page 23: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

EXPANDING OUR GREEN BOND PROGRAMME

OUR SUSTAINABLE FINANCING STRATEGY FOR TOMORROW

BROADER, DEEPER BASE

ENVELOPE / YEAR

VOYAGEURS

VOYAGES TER + TRANSILIEN

TOTAL ENVELOPE

€2-2.5 BN

€0.35 BN €0.15 BN€1.5 BN

+ €0.3 BN

GREEN BOND PROGRAMME: WHAT’S NEW IN 2021

RÉSEAU’S ASSET BASE DEEPENS– Addition of UIC-5 and UIC-6– New envelope of €250 m-€350 m/year– Still applies exclusively to electrified network

PROGRAMME EXPANDS TO VOYAGEURS ACTIVITIES– Covers all investment, procurement and upgrade costs

for our zero-direct-emission TGV fleet– Average envelope of €350 m/year, including

replacement of conventional TGV fleets with TGV M and Euro-duplex trains

SNCF is the world’s first mobility group to develop a green bond programme for both infrastructure and rolling stock

23 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Page 24: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

2021 FINANCING STRATEGY

OUR SUSTAINABLE FINANCING STRATEGY FOR TOMORROW

BNFINANCINGNEEDED

BNTO BE ISSUED

IAS GREEN BONDS

PUBLIC

OFFERINGS

€4.4 €2.080%40% ALREADY

FUNDED

2021 financing needs:€4.4 BN of which >40% has already been raised

We expect to raise €2.0 BN with Green Bonds through public offerings and/or private placements

Key components of our financing strategy:

- Average maturity over 10 years

- 80% public offerings and 20% private placements

- Public offerings in our primary currencies (€, $, £, CHF)

- Private placements and tap issues in all currencies ($, YEN, CAD, AUD, NOK, SEK, etc.) and private placements in fixed-rate bonds, FRNs, ZC bonds, CMSs, inflation-indexed bond, etc.

24 SNCF GROUP PRESENTATION

Page 25: GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL

Diffusable

THANK YOU