global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza … · 2017-02-24 · keywords jel...

Crawford School of Public Policy

CAMACentre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis

Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza

Miscellaneous PublicationsFebruary 2006

Warwick J McKibbinLowy Institute for International PolicyThe Brookings Institution andCentre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), ANU

Alexandra A. SidorenkoNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANUAustralian Centre for Economic Research on Health (ACERH)

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy through a range of scenarios (mild, moderate, severe and ultra) that span the historical experience of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century. An influenza pandemic would be expected to lead to: a fall in the labour force to different degrees in different countries due to a rise in mortality and illness; an increase in the cost of doing business; a shift in consumer preferences away from exposed sectors; and a re-evaluation of country risk as investors observe the responses of governments. The paper finds that even a mild pandemic has significant consequences for global economic output. The mild scenario is estimated to cost the world 1.4 million lives and close to 0.8% of GDP (approximately $U330 billion) in lost economic output. As the scale of the pandemic increases, so do the economic costs. A massive global economic slowdown occurs in the “ultra” scenario with over 142.2 million people killed and a GDP loss of $US4.4 trillion. The composition of the slowdown differs sharply across countries with a major shift of global capital from the affected economies to the less affected safe haven economies of North America and Europe.

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Keywords

JEL Classification

Address for correspondence:

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The Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in the Crawford School of Public Policy has been established to build strong links between professional macroeconomists. It provides a forum for quality macroeconomic research and discussion of policy issues between academia, government and the private sector.

The Crawford School of Public Policy is the Australian National University’s public policy school, serving and influencing Australia, Asia and the Pacific through advanced policy research, graduate and executive education, and policy impact.

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Scenario on severity

Country I death per capita

Labour force

Absentee ratesDirect illness

carers

Labor effectiveness by

sector j

Demand shock for service sector

Cost shock for service sector

Services Output

exposure

Govt quality

Healthresources

Country Risk shock

Diagram 1: Structure of Shocks for a given Country i

Financial exposure

Cost shock for sector i

Demand shock for sector i

ScalingScaling

Scaling

Scaling

Scaling

Figu

re 1

: Geo

grap

hy In

dica

tor

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.81

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

AU

SLD

CE

EB

CA

NC

HI

EU

RG

BR

HO

NIN

DIN

OJP

NK

OR

OP

CM

AL

NZL

PH

IS

NG

TAI

THA

US

A

Index

Inde

x_ge

o_U

S

Figu

re 2

: Hea

lth P

olic

y In

dica

tor

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.91

AU

SLD

CE

EB

CA

NC

HI

EU

RG

BR

HO

NIN

DIN

OJP

NK

OR

OP

CM

AL

NZL

PH

IS

NG

TAI

THA

US

A

Index

inde

x_he

alth

_pol

icy

Figu

re 3

: Mor

talit

y R

ate

Und

er e

ach

scen

ario

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

AU

SLD

CE

EB

CA

NC

HI

EU

RG

BR

HO

NIN

DIN

OJP

NK

OR

OP

CM

AL

NZL

PH

IS

NG

TAI

THA

US

A

inde

x_m

ildin

dex_

mod

inde

x_se

vere

inde

x_ul

tra

Figu

re 4

: Add

ition

al la

bor f

orce

sho

ck d

ue to

Abs

ente

eism

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

AU

SLD

CE

EB

CA

NC

HI

EU

RG

BR

HO

NIN

DIN

OJP

NK

OR

OP

CM

AL

NZL

PH

IS

NG

TAI

THA

US

A

% adjustment to labor shock

inde

x_si

ckne

ss

Figu

re 5

: Ser

vice

Sec

tor E

xpos

ure

in P

rodu

ctio

n

0%5%10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

AU

SLD

CE

EB

CA

NC

HI

EU

RG

BR

HO

NIN

DIN

OJP

NK

OR

OP

CM

AL

NZL

PH

IS

NG

TAI

THA

US

A

sensitive output relative to total service output

Figu

re 6

: Gov

erna

nce

Indi

cato

r

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

AU

SLD

CE

EB

CA

NC

HI

EU

RG

BR

HO

NIN

DIN

OJP

NK

OR

OP

CM

AL

NZL

PH

IS

NG

TAI

THA

US

A

Index

inde

x_go

vern

ance

Figu

re 7

: Cou

ntry

Ris

k P

rem

ia w

eigh

ting

rela

tivity

to U

S

0

0.050.

1

0.150.

2

0.250.

3

0.350.

4

0.45

AU

SLD

CE

EB

CA

NC

HI

EU

RG

BR

HO

NIN

DIN

OJP

NK

OR

OP

CM

AL

NZL

PH

IS

NG

TAI

THA

US

A

Percentage points

inde

x_ris

k2

Figu

re 8

: Cos

t sho

cks

- Mild

Sce

nario

0.00

0

0.05

0

0.10

0

0.15

0

0.20

0

0.25

0

0.30

0

0.35

0

0.40

0

0.45

0

AU

SLD

CE

EB

CA

NC

HI

EU

RG

BR

HO

NIN

DIN

OJP

NK

OR

OP

CM

AL

NZL

PH

IS

NG

TAI

THA

US

A

% change

ener

gym

inin

gag

ricul

ture

dura

ble

man

non-

dura

ble

man

ufac

turin

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rvic

es

Figu

re 9

: Cos

t sho

cks

- Mod

erat

e Sc

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-12

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% d

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e 1:

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Table 3: GDP Decomposition by Shock for Mild ScenarioTotal Labor Force Costs Demand Risk

USA -0.58 -0.50 -0.07 -0.01 0.00Japan -1.00 -0.77 -0.23 -0.01 0.00UK -0.72 -0.56 -0.14 -0.02 0.00Europe -0.72 -0.60 -0.12 0.00 0.00Canada -0.69 -0.61 -0.07 0.00 0.00Australia -0.80 -0.64 -0.15 -0.01 0.00New Zealand -1.38 -1.13 -0.26 0.00 0.00Indonesia -0.88 -0.60 -0.24 -0.01 -0.02Malaysia -0.78 -0.52 -0.26 0.00 0.00Philippines -1.54 -0.98 -0.49 -0.02 -0.05Singapore -0.86 -0.52 -0.34 0.00 0.00Thailand -0.45 -0.27 -0.17 0.00 -0.01China -0.70 -0.56 -0.13 0.00 0.00India -0.63 -0.49 -0.13 0.00 -0.01Taiwan -0.76 -0.56 -0.20 -0.01 0.00Korea -0.85 -0.61 -0.22 0.00 -0.01Hong Kong -1.20 -0.45 -0.72 0.00 -0.03LDCs -0.59 -0.41 -0.14 -0.01 -0.02EEFSU -0.56 -0.48 -0.07 0.00 0.00OPEC -0.68 -0.48 -0.18 -0.01 -0.01Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 4: GDP Decomposition by Shock for Moderate ScenarioTotal Labor Force Costs Demand Risk

USA -1.38 -0.52 -0.70 -0.16 0.01Japan -3.34 -0.85 -2.26 -0.22 -0.01UK -2.38 -0.60 -1.43 -0.35 -0.01Europe -1.88 -0.64 -1.19 -0.05 0.00Canada -1.50 -0.65 -0.73 -0.12 -0.01Australia -2.35 -0.68 -1.52 -0.15 0.00New Zealand -3.95 -1.21 -2.59 -0.13 -0.02Indonesia -3.59 -0.79 -2.45 -0.20 -0.17Malaysia -3.42 -0.63 -2.61 -0.13 -0.04Philippines -7.26 -1.25 -4.94 -0.55 -0.52Singapore -4.38 -0.62 -3.40 -0.39 0.03Thailand -2.10 -0.32 -1.68 -0.05 -0.05China -2.15 -0.64 -1.33 -0.19 0.01India -2.06 -0.55 -1.30 -0.14 -0.06Taiwan -2.86 -0.63 -1.97 -0.24 -0.01Korea -3.15 -0.70 -2.19 -0.18 -0.08Hong Kong -9.29 -0.54 -7.16 -1.24 -0.34LDCs -2.37 -0.45 -1.43 -0.28 -0.20EEFSU -1.35 -0.51 -0.75 -0.06 -0.03OPEC -2.77 -0.57 -1.78 -0.30 -0.12Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 5: GDP Decomposition by Shock for Severe ScenarioTotal Labor Force Costs Demand Risk


Table 6: GDP Decomposition by Shock for Ultra ScenarioTotal Labor Force Costs Demand Risk


Table 7: 2006 percentage GDP loss by regionMild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA -0.6 -1.4 -3.0 -5.5Japan -1.0 -3.3 -8.3 -15.8UK -0.7 -2.4 -5.8 -11.1Europe -0.7 -1.9 -4.3 -8.0Canada -0.7 -1.5 -3.1 -5.7Australia -0.8 -2.4 -5.6 -10.6New Zealand -1.4 -4.0 -9.4 -17.7Indonesia -0.9 -3.6 -9.2 -18.0Malaysia -0.8 -3.4 -8.4 -16.3Philippines -1.5 -7.3 -19.3 -37.8Singapore -0.9 -4.4 -11.1 -21.7Thailand -0.4 -2.1 -5.3 -10.3China -0.7 -2.1 -4.8 -9.1India -0.6 -2.1 -4.9 -9.3Taiwan -0.8 -2.9 -7.1 -13.8Korea -0.8 -3.2 -7.8 -15.1Hong Kong -1.2 -9.3 -26.8 -53.5LDCs -0.6 -2.4 -6.3 -12.2EEFSU -0.6 -1.4 -2.9 -5.4OPEC -0.7 -2.8 -7.0 -13.6Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 8: Inflation rate change in percentage points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA 0.58 0.77 1.37 2.22Japan 0.61 1.32 3.20 5.90UK 0.61 1.07 2.51 4.50Europe 0.46 0.77 1.62 2.83Canada 0.54 0.70 1.18 1.86Australia 0.46 0.83 1.83 3.28New Zealand 0.10 -0.03 0.04 -0.01Indonesia 0.30 0.51 1.04 1.78Malaysia 0.12 -0.23 -0.84 -1.80Philippines 0.04 -0.73 -2.17 -4.45Singapore 0.36 0.40 0.89 1.49Thailand 0.20 0.27 0.40 0.64China 0.51 0.79 1.34 2.23India 0.35 0.50 0.82 1.33Taiwan 0.43 0.84 2.41 4.47Korea 0.44 0.85 1.84 3.33Hong Kong 0.04 -3.84 -11.27 -22.83LDCs 0.41 0.33 -0.33 -1.05EEFSU 0.48 0.74 1.28 2.14OPEC 0.43 0.85 1.98 3.61Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 9: 10 Year Bond rate change in basis points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA -1 -4 -8 -16Japan -2 -5 -10 -19UK -1 -7 -14 -27Europe -1 -4 -7 -14Canada -2 -5 -10 -18Australia -2 -5 -12 -22New Zealand -5 -14 -31 -58Indonesia -2 -7 -6 -11Malaysia -3 -12 -23 -43Philippines -5 -18 -36 -70Singapore -4 -18 -44 -85Thailand -1 -4 -4 -7China -1 -6 -11 -22India -1 -5 -5 -10Taiwan -3 -10 -20 -37Korea -2 -5 -5 -8Hong Kong 0 10 59 118LDCs 0 5 38 76EEFSU -1 -2 -1 -1OPEC -1 -4 -2 -3Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 10: Short interest rate change in basis points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA 1 -18 -50 -101Japan 0 -18 -38 -78UK -2 -35 -83 -165Europe -1 -16 -37 -74Canada -2 -18 -47 -93Australia -2 -24 -59 -117New Zealand -27 -85 -190 -358Indonesia -5 -32 -12 -23Malaysia -7 -54 -109 -215Philippines -19 -103 -180 -352Singapore -11 -99 -246 -489Thailand -1 -17 -10 -21China -1 -25 -57 -116India -2 -19 -16 -30Taiwan -7 -47 -91 -177Korea 0 -14 -1 -2Hong Kong 10 73 407 812LDCs 7 44 260 519EEFSU 1 -6 4 7OPEC 0 -16 10 19Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 11: Short real interest rate change in basis points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA 20 26 38 59Japan 25 61 146 273UK 19 37 85 156Europe 21 36 71 125Canada 26 38 59 95Australia 25 45 94 169New Zealand 8 0 5 3Indonesia 25 67 199 379Malaysia 28 67 158 297Philippines 19 35 149 284Singapore 28 66 130 239Thailand 18 45 124 235China 29 60 107 192India 24 51 124 230Taiwan 25 56 160 302Korea 28 76 197 373Hong Kong 58 307 1044 2074LDCs 30 94 318 616EEFSU 22 42 89 160OPEC 26 75 214 413Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 12 Long real interest rate change in basis points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA 6 7 11 16Japan 6 13 30 55UK 7 11 24 43Europe 4 7 14 23Canada 5 7 10 15Australia 5 8 16 28New Zealand 0 -2 -5 -10Indonesia 3 9 25 47Malaysia 2 6 15 28Philippines 1 0 5 9Singapore 3 9 17 32Thailand 2 4 11 20China 5 9 15 25India 3 6 14 25Taiwan 4 8 23 43Korea 4 11 26 49Hong Kong 7 41 140 268LDCs 5 13 41 77EEFSU 5 8 15 26OPEC 5 12 31 59Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 13: Nominal exchange rate ($US per currency) %change in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Japan -0.08 -0.52 -2.28 -4.53UK -0.03 -0.47 -1.74 -3.49Europe -0.06 -0.22 -1.00 -1.96Canada -0.14 -0.22 -0.64 -1.14Australia -0.09 -0.38 -1.44 -2.82New Zealand -0.46 -1.39 -4.37 -8.39Indonesia -0.22 -1.33 -4.92 -9.80Malaysia -0.24 -1.18 -3.60 -7.08Philippines -0.46 -2.60 -8.78 -17.39Singapore -0.32 -1.61 -4.47 -8.77Thailand -0.05 -0.55 -2.29 -4.59China -0.06 -0.34 -1.10 -2.20India -0.10 -0.60 -2.34 -4.65Taiwan -0.28 -1.33 -4.77 -9.39Korea -0.10 -0.62 -2.38 -4.71Hong Kong 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00LDCs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00EEFSU -0.01 -0.15 -0.90 -1.82OPEC -0.09 -0.79 -3.09 -6.19Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A$US per local currency - negative is a depreciation of the local currency

Table 14: Current Account Change (%gdp) in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA 0.00 -0.04 -0.20 -0.40Japan 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.12UK 0.01 0.02 -0.02 -0.05Europe -0.01 -0.07 -0.24 -0.47Canada -0.08 -0.17 -0.47 -0.86Australia -0.03 -0.13 -0.39 -0.75New Zealand 0.32 0.77 1.96 3.67Indonesia 0.00 0.20 0.95 1.95Malaysia 0.02 0.09 0.41 0.80Philippines 0.40 2.08 6.60 13.00Singapore 0.14 0.49 0.74 1.36Thailand 0.09 0.27 0.96 1.84China -0.01 -0.08 -0.27 -0.54India -0.01 0.01 0.11 0.24Taiwan 0.01 0.17 0.68 1.37Korea 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.34Hong Kong -0.20 0.04 0.49 1.17LDCs -0.01 0.12 0.57 1.16EEFSU 0.03 0.06 0.15 0.28OPEC 0.02 0.05 0.42 0.83Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 15:Equity Price (Manufacturing) change in percent in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA -0.48 -0.52 -0.51 -0.56Japan -0.49 -1.01 -2.34 -4.28UK -0.43 -0.58 -1.03 -1.69Europe -0.43 -0.62 -1.11 -1.83Canada -0.43 -0.52 -0.64 -0.90Australia -0.33 -0.50 -0.89 -1.51New Zealand -0.18 -0.17 -0.49 -0.85Indonesia -0.32 -0.93 -3.07 -6.02Malaysia -0.54 -1.36 -3.43 -6.47Philippines -0.39 -1.39 -5.03 -9.83Singapore -0.49 -0.91 -1.56 -2.74Thailand -0.35 -1.04 -2.95 -5.66China -0.52 -1.04 -1.85 -3.34India -0.32 -0.74 -1.89 -3.55Taiwan -0.43 -1.04 -3.08 -5.84Korea -0.51 -1.32 -3.44 -6.53Hong Kong -1.07 -4.38 -15.29 -30.34LDCs -0.38 -1.07 -3.55 -6.85EEFSU -0.53 -0.88 -1.77 -3.10OPEC -0.47 -1.22 -3.57 -6.85Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Table 16:Export change in percent in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra

USA -0.99 -1.97 -5.19 -9.50Japan -1.04 -2.57 -5.64 -10.45UK -1.04 -1.98 -4.70 -8.51Europe -0.63 -1.48 -3.58 -6.64Canada -0.74 -1.21 -2.47 -4.25Australia -0.69 -1.92 -4.92 -9.26New Zealand -0.42 -1.06 -3.03 -5.74Indonesia -0.28 -0.77 0.09 0.46Malaysia -0.33 -1.41 -3.23 -6.28Philippines -0.18 -1.17 -5.13 -10.17Singapore -0.70 -2.67 -6.87 -13.33Thailand -0.01 -0.31 -0.17 -0.36China -0.35 -1.04 -2.58 -4.93India -0.15 -0.44 -0.42 -0.71Taiwan -0.42 -0.87 -1.36 -2.37Korea -0.51 -1.58 -3.40 -6.44Hong Kong -0.58 -3.27 -9.75 -19.52LDCs -0.41 -0.95 -1.56 -2.80EEFSU -0.57 -1.23 -2.38 -4.26OPEC -0.45 -1.49 -2.92 -5.55Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A

Tabl

e 17

: Sen

sitiv

ity o

f Mod

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e sc

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risk

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DP

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tion

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rce:

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mod

el v

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on 6

3A

Tabl

e 18

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sitiv

ity o

f Mod

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e sc

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mor

e su

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ned

risk

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kG

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PG

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ed m

odel

ver

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Tabl

e 19

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sitiv

ity o

f Mod

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e sc

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5 ti

mes

larg

er d

eman

d sw

itch

GD

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rate

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pan

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rce:

AP

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mod

el v

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Tabl

e 20

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ith n

o ad

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sG

DP

Infla

tion

10 y

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ada

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tralia

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Tabl

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rath

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ttack

rate

GD

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Tabl

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pons

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f GD

P (o

n av

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1012

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31.

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620.

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71.

1-2

0-6

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C1.

06-2

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91.

6-4

1-1

624

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Sou

rce:

AP

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mod

el v

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on 6

3A

Tabl

e 23

: GD

P C

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quen

ces

of H

isto

rical

Influ

enza

Pan

dem

ics

Span

ish

Influ

enza

191

8-19

19G

DP

Gro

wth

rate

, %19

08-1

913

1914

1914

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819

1919

19 G

DP

(loss

), %

Ave

rage

Ann

ual

Ave

rage

Ann

ual

Ann

ual

AU

SA

ustra

lia5.

16-7

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0.89

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CA

NC

anad

a8.

69-6

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3.54

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14-1

4.68

GB

RG

reat

Brit

ain

2.88

1.00

3.02

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89-1

6.91

JPN

Japa

n2.

52-3

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5.56

7.94

2.38

US

AU

nite

d S

tate

s5.

48-7

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6.09

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2-1

1.32

Asi

an In

fluen

za 1

957-

58G

DP

Gro

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rate

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53-5

719

5819

58 G

DP

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rage

Ann

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AU

SA

ustra

lia4.

384.

800.

43C

AN

Can

ada

5.28

1.79

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BR

Gre

at B

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06-0

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pan

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global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza … · 2017-02-24 · keywords jel...

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